Russia's War - The Times Of Central Asia

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Sanctions

How U.S. and EU Sanctions Are Rippling Through Central Asia

Russia’s economy has faced renewed pressure following a fresh round of sanctions imposed this past week by both the European Union and the United States. After abruptly canceling a planned meeting with Vladimir Putin in Budapest, President Donald Trump shifted to a more hardline stance, announcing new sanctions. While these sanctions may not cripple Moscow, they are already having secondary effects on Central Asia, particularly on Kazakhstan’s banking and energy sectors. The EU's 19th sanctions package, adopted on October 22, introduces a phased ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG). According to Reuters, short-term contracts will be terminated within six months, while long-term contracts are to expire by January 1, 2027. The package also includes a total ban on transactions with Russian oil giants Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, an expanded blacklist of so-called "shadow fleet" vessels, and sanctions against 45 companies in Russia and third countries supplying military-related technologies. Of growing concern in Central Asia is the inclusion of several regional financial institutions in the EU's sanctions list. These include the Kazakh branch of Russia’s VTB Bank, Kyrgyz banks Tolubai and Eurasian Savings Bank, and Tajik banks Dushanbe City Bank, Kommertsbank of Tajikistan, and Spitamen. These restrictions are scheduled to take effect between November and December 2025. Both Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov and the nation's Foreign Ministry have publicly expressed dismay over the sanctions, with Japarov urging Western leaders to stop “politicizing the economy.” In his speech at the UN General Assembly in New York in September, Japarov criticized the impact of unilateral sanctions, while the Foreign Ministry has stated that the country adheres to its international obligations and maintains an open dialogue with the EU to prevent risks associated with possible sanctions circumvention. The ministry has proposed launching an independent, internationally recognized audit and forming a joint “Kyrgyzstan-European Union” technical working group to facilitate data exchange, transaction monitoring, and risk assessments. In Kazakhstan, the National Bank downplayed the impact of sanctions against VTB. Deputy Chairman Yerulan Zhamaubayev noted that the bank had already been under nominal restrictions, and handles few transactions. “VTB does not affect the country’s financial stability, and we do not expect serious risks for the economy,” Zhamaubayev stated. However, the latest U.S. sanctions may prove more consequential for Kazakhstan, particularly amid efforts to strengthen bilateral trade with the United States, including through the repeal of the Jackson-Vanik amendment. The U.S. Treasury Department has sanctioned Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil. The latter has deep economic ties with Kazakhstan. Just days before the announcement, on October 14, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev personally attended the 30th anniversary of Lukoil’s operations in Kazakhstan, awarding CEO Vagit Alekperov the Order of Barys, first class. Oil and gas journalist Oleg Chervinsky reported that the joint venture Kalamkas-Khazar Operating LLP, co-owned by Lukoil and KazMunayGas, is directly affected. “Only the Tengiz and CPC projects, which Lukoil operates with American partners, have been exempted from the sanctions,” Chervinsky noted. A final investment decision for Kalamkas-Khazar was expected in December 2025. Yerkanat Abeni, a member of...

Russia's War

Central Asians in Putin’s War: Fighting for Ukraine, Forced for Russia

As the war in Ukraine continues to drag on, fighters from across Central Asia have found themselves on both sides of the frontlines. In Kyiv, Kazakh national Zhasulan Duysembin has traded his past life as a sales agent for a rifle, sporting a tattoo of Kazakhstan’s flag on his back as he battles to defend his adopted home. He now fights, he says, to protect his children and believes that “Russia will not stop in Ukraine, it will go further. We must make every effort to ensure that our Kazakhstan does not suffer.” Alan Zhangozha, an ethnic Kazakh who grew up in Kyiv and now serves as a public relations officer in the Ukrainian Army, echoes this sentiment. “Ukraine’s victory will also be a victory for my Motherland,” he told The Diplomat. But as the war drags on, in Kazakhstan, families mourn men like 22-year-old Kiril Nysanbaev - a labor migrant in Russia coerced into signing up for the war who only came home in a coffin. His sister recalls how her brother told her that Russian officers beat and forced him to enlist while he was detained on dubious charges in Chelyabinsk. Nysanbaev was killed in Ukraine’s Donetsk region in March 2024, news that only reached his family three months later. Citizens of all five Central Asian countries have been pulled into the conflict since Russia’s invasion in 2022. Some have volunteered to fight for Ukraine, driven by personal ties or ideals, while others, mostly labor migrants, have been recruited, enticed, or pressured into fighting for Russia. These parallel currents reflect the complex impact of the war on a region that remains officially neutral but was historically deeply entwined with Moscow. While a handful of Central Asians now wear the blue-and-yellow insignia in Ukraine’s defense, far more have ended up in Russia's ranks, often as expendable foot soldiers. From Bishkek to Bucha In November 2022, a Kyrgyz former labor migrant, Almaz Kudabek uulu, announced the creation of the Turan Battalion, a volunteer unit of Turkic-speaking fighters formed to assist Ukraine. “Kyrgyzstan is my homeland; I will always love it. But Ukraine is my home now; I am fighting for Ukraine,” he told reporters. The battalion, joined by volunteers from Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and elsewhere, operates as a semi-autonomous unit supported by private donations and allied Ukrainian brigades. Back in Kyrgyzstan, however, the authorities opened a criminal case against Kudabek, punishable by up to eight years in prison, and local media that covered his story faced pressure. Others have supported Ukraine in tangible, humanitarian ways. Early in the war, members of Ukraine’s Kazakh diaspora erected traditional yurts in cities like Bucha and Kyiv as heated shelters dubbed “Yurts of Invincibility.” These spaces provided food, tea, and electricity during blackouts, a gesture of solidarity that irritated Moscow but drew only a muted response from Kazakhstan’s government. Moscow’s Migrant Recruits: Coercion and Casualties Far greater numbers of Central Asians have ended up fighting for Russia, which hosts millions of migrant workers from...

International Diplomacy

Tokayev Congratulates Putin After Alaska Meeting; Russian Leader Briefs Mirziyoyev

Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to the leaders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan by telephone on Sunday, briefing them about his talks in Alaska with U.S. President Donald Trump about ending the war in Ukraine. Trade and joint energy projects between Russia and the Central Asian countries were also discussed. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan congratulated Putin on “the results” of the meeting with Trump and said “the negotiations contributed to a better understanding by the American side of the Russian position on Ukraine, which will help find common ground on this complex issue,” Tokayev’s office said. “Kassym-Jomart Tokayev considers the Alaska summit a breakthrough event in terms of strengthening Russia's international positions and mutual understanding on the world stage,” the office said. Even so, uncertainty remains. Putin and Trump provided few details about their meeting on Friday, leaving Alaska without the Ukraine-backed cease-fire that Trump had previously demanded. Ukraine and its European allies are concerned that Trump could back a proposed deal under which Moscow secures more Ukrainian territory as part of a resolution. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders are scheduled to meet Trump at the White House on Monday to press their case for a peace with security guarantees. In their phone call, Putin informed President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan of the “main results” of his meeting with Trump, Mirziyoyev’s office said. “The leader of Uzbekistan expressed support for the agreements reached and voiced hope for a swift settlement of the situation surrounding Ukraine,” the office said. Putin and Mirziyoyev spoke about accelerating trade between their two countries, while Tokayev thanked the Russian leader for collaborating in the field of energy, a possible reference to Russia’s leading role in building Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant. The Kremlin released similar statements about the phone calls.

International Diplomacy

Despite War’s Challenges, Kazakhstan Says Trump-Putin Meeting Was “The Beginning”

Kazakhstan has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump for their meeting in Alaska, describing it as “the beginning of high-level negotiations on the situation in Ukraine.” President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev “regards the summit as a historic event, made possible by the political will and sincere determination of both leaders to seek common approaches to resolving contemporary global challenges, including the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine,” Tokayev´s press secretary, Ruslan Zheldibay, said on X on Saturday. Tokayev’s statement generally aligned with the positive statements made by Putin and Trump after their meeting on Friday, even though the two leaders provided few details about how they envisioned resolving the conflict when they spoke briefly to the media after their discussion. Ukraine and its European allies have been concerned that Trump could favor Putin’s terms for ending the war, leaving Ukraine vulnerable to renewed Russian pressure in the future. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to meet Trump at the White House on Monday. In a Truth Social post on Saturday, Trump appeared to back away from his previous demand for a Ukraine-supported ceasefire, saying it was better to “go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up.” Despite their concerns, European leaders have welcomed Trump’s negotiation efforts, noting a statement by the U.S. president that the United States “is prepared to give security guarantees” so that Ukraine can defend its sovereignty. “It will be up to Ukraine to make decisions on its territory. International borders must not be changed by force,” a joint statement by European leaders said. Kazakhstan is not directly involved in negotiations over Ukraine, but it has become an intermittent venue for international diplomacy and has offered to assist as needed since it maintains ties with both Russia and Ukraine. Tokayev has spoken in support of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. But in a phone call a week ago, Tokayev told Zelenskyy that “A bad peace is better than a good war,” possibly a pitch to the Ukrainian leader to consider concessions such as giving up territory in order to preserve the country’s independence. Russia occupies an estimated 20% of Ukraine and has made gains in eastern Ukraine in recent days. At least publicly, Zelenskyy has opposed the idea of giving up territory, saying the Ukrainian constitution prevents him from doing so. On Saturday, he said on X: “A real peace must be achieved, one that will be lasting, not just another pause between Russian invasions.” Kazakhstan, which has sought neutrality over the war, shares a long land border with Russia and has closer trade and diplomatic ties with Moscow than Kyiv. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Tokayev has spoken to Zelenskyy several times in phone calls that, according to Kazakhstan’s presidency, were initiated by the Ukrainian side. Tokayev has spoken to Putin by phone on more than twice as many occasions and has also met the Russian...

Peace Talks

Trump-Putin Alaska Summit Ends Without Ceasefire

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met on Friday in Alaska for their first face-to-face summit since the start of the Ukraine war. Despite optimism from the U.S. side, the talks ended without an agreement on a ceasefire. The leaders met for nearly three hours at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, following a red-carpet welcome and military flyover. Only a handful of aides joined the private session. Afterward, Trump called the exchange “extremely productive” and said “some headway” had been made, but stressed that “there’s no deal until there’s a deal.” Putin described “progress” and “agreements,” though neither leader offered specifics, and neither took questions. No Ceasefire, Continued Dialogue Ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominated the agenda. Trump had vowed to bring the war to a close quickly, but the Alaska talks produced no ceasefire. Ukrainian officials noted that Putin appeared to have “bought more time” as fighting continues. Air raid sirens sounded in Ukraine, and Russian border regions came under drone attack even as the summit unfolded. Having previously said on the way to his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin that he wouldn’t “be happy if I walk away without some form of a ceasefire,” U.S. President Donald Trump walked away from the talks with no agreement in place, instead urging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to “make a deal.” “I believe we had a very productive meeting,” Trump stated. “There were many, many points that we agreed on… I will call up NATO… I’ll of course call up President Zelenskyy and tell him about today’s meeting… We really made some great progress… I’ve always had a fantastic relationship with President Putin – with Vladimir…We were interfered with by the ‘Russia, Russia, Russia’ hoax,” he added. “Again, Mr. President, I’d like to thank you very much, and we’ll speak to you very soon and probably see you again very soon,” Trump said. “Thank you very much, Vladimir.” “Next time in Moscow,” Putin replied, chuckling, with a rare use of English, before Trump abruptly ended his press event, refusing to take any questions. Both leaders said the dialogue would continue. Trump claimed he and Putin agreed on “most things” and floated the idea of joining a future meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Putin, while not referencing direct talks with Kyiv, urged Ukraine and its allies not to “derail” what he called constructive progress. Signals from Washington and Moscow Trump emphasized his desire to stop the fighting, stating, “I want the killing to stop,” and suggested he believed Putin wanted peace as well. He also said he would hold off on imposing new “severe” measures on Russia, a shift from earlier rhetoric. Trump also revealed that he would pause plans to levy tariffs on Chinese imports over Beijing’s purchases of Russian oil, saying progress in Alaska made that step unnecessary for now. Putin, meanwhile, repeated his long-standing demands that NATO expansion and other “root causes” be addressed before peace can be achieved. He warned that...

Peace Talks

Trump–Putin Talks in Alaska: What Could They Mean for Central Asia?

As U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, located just outside of Anchorage, Alaska, hopes and anxieties are reverberating across Central Asia. Trump has signaled that securing a ceasefire in Ukraine is his top priority, warning of “very severe consequences” for Moscow if Putin refuses to halt the war. For the five former Soviet republics of Central Asia, these peace talks carry high stakes. Any truce or breakdown could ripple into their economies and strategic calculus. The war has already fundamentally changed Central Asia’s strategic positioning, accelerating diversification away from Russian dependence. With Trump and Putin poised to negotiate, Central Asian leaders are mindful that all possible outcomes - a ceasefire, a prolonged conflict, or a major power realignment - could each reshape the region’s economic fortunes and foreign policy choices. Central Asian Stances on the Ukraine War All five Central Asian governments have officially maintained neutrality on the Ukraine conflict. On the first UN General Assembly resolution of March 2, 2022, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan abstained, while Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan did not vote. On subsequent resolutions, Uzbekistan abstained alongside Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan; Turkmenistan continued not to vote. None has recognized Russia’s claims to Ukrainian territory. Seated beside Putin at a plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June 2022, referring to them as “quasi-state territories,” President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan refused to recognize the independence of the so-called Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. “Modern international law is the United Nations Charter,” Tokayev stated. Despite maintaining ties with Russia, Kazakhstan has boosted its engagement with China, Turkey, and Europe during the conflict. Whilst publicly affirming that it will comply with Western sanctions on Russia, Kazakhstan has stated that it will continue to prioritize its economic interests, vowing not to “blindly follow” such measures when they harm its domestic industries. “Kazakhstan will continue to comply with the sanctions but will pursue a balanced policy to minimize the impact on its own economy,” Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin said in August 2024. Uzbekistan has adopted a similar “balanced and neutral” approach to the war in Ukraine. In March 2022, then-Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov stated that Uzbekistan “recognizes the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and does not recognize the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics.” Despite Kamilov leaving his position shortly after making this statement, the nation’s position appears largely unchanged. Calling for an immediate end to “hostilities and violence,” Tashkent has expanded links with Turkey, China, and the EU. According to a U.S. State Department report from 2024, “Uzbekistan formally committed to adhering to U.S. and EU sanctions and trade restrictions on Russia.” Kyrgyzstan has continued to maintain a close economic relationship with Moscow while abstaining from all key United Nations resolutions concerning the Ukraine war. President Sadyr Japarov has said the country “adheres to a neutral position” and that exports to Russia are civilian in nature. In January 2025, Kyrgyzstan’s Keremet Bank was designated by the U.S....