Kyrgyzstan’s Economic Boom or Bust? Calls for Inclusive Growth Persist
Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov declared late last year that the country’s economic growth had reached historic milestones, with GDP maintaining positive momentum. However, local economists remain skeptical about the broader impact of this growth. In 2020, Kyrgyzstan’s GDP stood at 639 billion KGS ($7.3 billion), according to official data. By the end of 2025, this figure is projected to reach 1.8 trillion KGS ($22 billion). Growth Without Inclusion In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, economist Nurgul Akimova acknowledged that the reported 9% GDP growth and the so-called “leopard’s leap” frequently mentioned by the government are positive developments. However, she stressed that for economic expansion to be meaningful for ordinary citizens, it must be inclusive. "Nine percent growth is not inclusive because it does not create additional jobs. The main drivers of our economic growth are construction, downstream industries, and the financial sector. These sectors do not contribute to improving human capital. In construction, for instance, a significant portion of costs goes toward imported building materials," Akimova explained. According to Akimova, Kyrgyzstan’s economy has followed an inertia-driven trajectory for the past 30 years, avoiding major shocks but also failing to achieve significant breakthroughs. She pointed out that if the garment sector were growing, it would have a greater impact, as it did 15 years ago when Kyrgyz-made clothing was exported to neighboring countries. "For example, a seamstress spends her income on education, healthcare, and consumption. By doing so, she contributes to the development of other inclusive sectors, benefiting society as a whole," Akimova said, adding that while the economy is expanding, it is not improving the welfare of citizens. A People-Centered Economy Akimova emphasized that economic policy should prioritize people’s wellbeing, as failure to do so could erode public trust in the government. She also criticized official comparisons of Kyrgyzstan’s economic growth with other countries, arguing that such assessments lack context. "Officials claim Kyrgyzstan is growing faster than others, but an economy that produces microchips and one that manufactures T-shirts are fundamentally different. These industries require distinct investment levels, equipment, and human capital." Kyrgyzstan’s economy is currently valued at approximately $14 billion. If the country were to sustain an annual 10% growth rate, as authorities suggest, GDP would increase by $1.4 billion per year. Akimova highlighted that this figure represents only 0.5% of Kazakhstan’s economic growth, 0.06% of Russia’s, and a mere 0.0006% of the United States’ GDP expansion. "When we hear claims that we are growing faster than others, we must consider the scale and complexity of economic processes," the economist concluded.
