Economic Growth - The Times Of Central Asia

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Government Reports Steady Economic Growth in Kyrgyzstan

Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Akylbek Japarov announced in parliament on November 14 that Kyrgyzstan's GDP exceeded a historical high of 1.3 trillion KGS in 2023 and is projected to reach 1.5 trillion KGS ($17.35 billion) by the end of the year. Presenting the state budget execution for 2023 and the draft budget for 2025, Japarov reported a 9% real GDP growth rate for 2023, consistent with the growth rate in 2022. For context, Kyrgyzstan’s GDP growth was 7% in 2021. Japarov offered a conservative forecast for 2024, predicting 9.2% GDP growth. “If we divide GDP per capita, then in 2020, this figure was $1,200, and in 2024, it will exceed $2,500,” he noted. The average monthly wage in Kyrgyzstan has risen steadily from $239 (20,249 KGS) in 2021 to $316 (26,620 KGS) in 2022 and $376 in 2023. By the end of 2024, it is expected to reach $415 (35,791 KGS). From January to September 2024, Kyrgyzstan’s foreign trade volume was $12.1 billion, an 8.4% increase. Exports grew by 28.2%, totaling $2.8 billion, while imports rose by 3.7%, amounting to $9.3 billion. Inflation has significantly decreased, dropping from 14.7% in 2022 to 7.3% in 2023, and reaching 4.2% from January to October 2024. Japarov also highlighted the growth of Kyrgyzstan’s industrial sector, attributing it to investments and government support. By the end of 2024, more than 150 new enterprises are expected to open, with total investment projected at $2.2 billion and an estimated 19,000 jobs created. Further, for the first time since independence, Kyrgyzstan has started producing cars, standard gold bars, and new types of medicines. In the energy sector, Japarov reported that small hydroelectric power plants with a combined capacity of 48.3 MW were brought online in 2024. Additionally, solar and wind power projects are underway, alongside the reconstruction of the Toktogul hydroelectric power plant, the country’s largest.

Automobile Industry Economic Cooperation Automotive Industry Economic Growth South Korea

Car Multimedia System Plant Launched in Almaty

The opening ceremony of the Kazakhstan Mobility Engineering Plant took place on October 30 in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city. The new production facility is part of Astana Motors, Kazakhstan’s major automobile distribution and manufacturing company. In April last year, Astana Motors signed a memorandum of cooperation with South Korea’s Motrex Co Ltd., receiving the right to produce multimedia devices in Kazakhstan using the Korean partner's technology. The plant was launched in September 2024, and the first batch of its audio and video multimedia systems has already been delivered to the Hyundai Trans Kazakhstan plant for installation on Tucson and Elantra cars. Speaking at the opening ceremony, Minister of Industry and Construction of Kazakhstan, Kanat Sharlapayev, emphasized that multimedia systems are high-precision production requiring first-class specialists' competencies in digital technologies. “Our key goal is to create a production cycle with a high share of [production] localization [inside Kazakhstan]. And we will make maximum use of domestic raw materials and components. That is why Kazakhstan Mobility Engineering is important for the country.” Motrex CEO Junseon Kim also stressed the importance of local production: "Our goal is to closely cooperate with our partners to increase local production of components and leadership in the assembly of multimedia devices. The partnership will allow us to respond quickly to local needs, create jobs, and support Kazakhstan's economic growth." The Kazakhstan Mobility Engineering plant is part of the Astana Motors Engineering Technopark, constructed in the Industrial Zone of Almaty to produce automobile components. The technopark will also open a car seat manufacturing plant, a rubber and plastic products manufacturing plant, and a logistics hub. Its products will be supplied to the Hyundai Trans Kazakhstan plant and other automobile plants in Kazakhstan. Astana Motors has also signed a memorandum with Sanico Electronics, a South Korean manufacturer, to obtain the right to produce motherboards and cases for multimedia systems. In other news, Kazakhstan’s national company, Kazakh Invest, and KIA Qazaqstan discussed projects to produce original South Korean auto components for KIA cars in Kazakhstan. The parties considered cooperating with South Korean companies SJG Sejong and Seoyon E-Hwa, the original manufacturers of seats, bumpers, mufflers, and other components for KIA cars. Representatives of the companies expressed interest in implementing investment projects in Kazakhstan, emphasizing the strategic importance of localizing the production of automotive components in the country. A full-cycle plant to produce KIA cars is currently under construction in Kazakhstan’s Kostanay. The new plant will cost about $200 million and have a production capacity of 70,000 vehicles annually. This project is KIA's first direct investment in a joint venture to construct a plant outside Korea. At a government meeting on October 29, Minister of Industry and Construction Sharlapayev said that from January to September 2024, Kazakhstan produced more than 82,000 cars.

OTS Countries Take Steps Towards Turkic Integration

On October 18, Bishkek hosted the 13th meeting of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), wherein Ministers of Economy and Trade aimed to strengthen economic cooperation between the OTS member states. The OTS, currently comprising Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, with Hungary and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus as observers, was founded in 2009 to foster comprehensive cooperation among Turkic-speaking nations. During the meeting, Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers of Kyrgyzstan, Akylbek Japarov, stated that in recent years, Kyrgyzstan's trade turnover with the OTS member states has grown by almost 62%, with Kyrgyz exports increasing by 54.6%, and imports by 66%. The Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of National Economy of Kazakhstan, Nurlan Baibazarov, emphasized Kazakhstan’s adherence to the development of Turkic integration and announced that the "Turkic Investment Fund created within the OTS demonstrates a common desire to expand economic and investment cooperation, implement joint investment projects, and attract capital, technology, and talent for our countries' dynamic growth and prosperity." OTS ministers supported Kazakhstan's initiatives to create a Green Finance Council, a Council of Central (National) Banks of the OTS member states, and the inauguration of the Turan Special Economic Zone in the Kazakh city of Turkestan, where the next meeting will be held. In January-August 2024, trade between Kazakhstan and the OTS countries amounted to $7.2 billion, and according to the Turkish Ministry of Finance, by the end of 2024, the Turkic states are poised to play an important role in the world economy, reaching an economic volume of $1.9 trillion and a population of 178 million. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the Turkic Investment Fund, with an authorized capital of $1 billion, will begin financing major joint projects of the OTS member countries from January 2025.

Kyrgyz Economy Is on the Rise

Government statistics and independent analysts note growth in almost all sectors of the Kyrgyz economy The most significant increase is recorded in the construction sector, which in turn, has positively impacted other sectors, such as industrial production, agriculture, and foreign trade. Speaking to The Times of Central Asia, macroeconomics expert Nasirdin Shamshiev remarked: “This year, due to favorable weather, twice as many beets, and one and a half times more barley and wheat were harvested. Due to the high rate of construction of small hydropower plants, the energy sector is also showing good growth. In addition, the production of construction materials has increased, and textile production is growing. Exports for the first eight months of 2024 increased by 13.5%, and imports by 8.1%." According to Shamshiev, the good economic dynamics were influenced by several factors: the strengthening of fiscal rules, fighting corruption and illegal financial flows, and a balanced monetary policy. Earlier, Kyrgyzstan' president Akylbek Japarov, held a meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers, during which the socio-economic development results for the first nine months of 2024 were summarized. According to Japarov, Kyrgyzstan's GDP grew by 8.4%. However, gold exports, traditionally the economy's leading revenue-generating sector, have declined this year; a situation previously reported by The Times of Central Asia with reference to a decline in production at Kumtor, the country's largest gold mine. According to the Prime Minister's information, 37% of the growth in the construction sector provides an increase in industrial production in Kyrgyzstan. Data also shows that over the past year, following the launch of the Chinese oil refinery Junda near Bishkek, the production of refined petroleum products almost doubled. Hailing the success of recent ventures, Japarov stated: “The growth rate of our economy is nothing short of encouraging. We are now implementing the Leap of the Leopard program and approaching our set ambitious goals and objectives."

Decrease Expected in Central Asia’s Economic Growth

According to the World Bank, economic growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is expected to slow to 3.3% this year, down from 3.5% in 2023. This is much lower than the average growth of 4.1% seen between 2000 and 2019, and is not enough for many of the region's middle-income countries to become high-income. Growth in the region has mainly been driven by an increase in people's spending, rising wages, and government policies, while demand from outside the area, especially from the EU, remains weak. Although the average yearly inflation rate had dropped to 3.6% by August 2024, from 4.6% at the end of last year, it is still higher than the 2.7% average seen in 2018-2019. Prices of goods have grown more slowly in most countries, but prices for services remain high because of rising labor costs. Some central banks have lowered interest rates as inflation has slowed, but are cautious. Government spending has not been reduced in most of the region's countries and indeed, has dramatically increased, especially on public wages, pensions, social benefits, and defense. The economies of Central Asia are expected to grow by 4.3% in 2024; slower than the 5.6% growth seen last year. In Kazakhstan, growth is predicted to slow to 3.4%, down from 5.1% in 2023, mainly because the expansion of the Tengiz oil field is taking longer, and the government is spending less. For other Central Asian countries, growth estimates have been raised by an average of nearly one percentage due to increased consumer spending, more government spending, and ongoing support from money sent home by workers in Russia and trade with Russia. However, despite these improvements, the growth per capita GDP (the average income per person) in Central Asia is only expected to be 2.7% this year, making it the slowest in the region, apart fromTurkey. The Central Asian sub region, with growth expected at 5%, will outpace all other sub regions in 2025. This is driven primarily by renewed strong growth in Kazakhstan amid rising oil production. However, growth in the rest of Central Asia is projected to slow as trading and remittance flows from Russia normalize. The lowest median consumer price growth rate was recorded in the South Caucasus, at 1.5% year-on-year in August 2024. In contrast, Central Asia had the highest median consumer price inflation rate, at 6.1%. This rate reflects 10% inflation in Uzbekistan, driven by removing energy subsidies in May 2024.

IMF Economic Growth Economy

IMF: Uzbekistan’s Economy Is Growing, but Reforms and Stability Are Key

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the forecasts for Uzbekistan's economy are optimistic. The economy continues to grow actively; however, risks and opportunities remain. Maintaining macroeconomic stability and continuing to implement structural reforms is necessary to sustain high growth rates, restore buffer stocks, and protect against external shocks. The economy grew by 6.4% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year. Due to an increase in energy prices in early May, overall inflation increased from 8% at the end of April to around 10.5% recently. The underlying inflation rate rose more moderately, reaching 7% in August, up by one percentage point since June. Remittances increased by 32% in the first seven months of 2024, and international reserves are still substantial, covering 9.5 months of imports as of August. Economic growth is expected to stay above 5.5% this year and next, driven by strong investments and reforms. Inflation is predicted to gradually decline due to tighter monetary and fiscal policies and the fading impact of energy price hikes. The current account deficit is expected to decrease to 6.25% of GDP in 2024 and 6.1% in 2025, supported by strong exports, remittances, and fewer large machinery imports. Risks include regional challenges, fluctuating commodity prices, a possible global slowdown, and issues with state-owned enterprises or partnerships. Opportunities may come from increased financial flows, remittances, and higher gold prices. The impact of energy price hikes in May 2024 and wage increases in September-October 2024 could lead to higher inflation. Experts recommend that the Central Bank of Uzbekistan keep interest rates high until there is clear evidence of inflation decreasing. The bank should also be prepared to raise rates further if inflation rises more than expected.