Economic Growth - The Times Of Central Asia

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TCA Interviews

Can Special Economic Zones Become a Driver of Economic Growth in Kazakhstan?

Kazakhstan currently has 17 special economic zones (SEZs) operating across 14 regions, three of which were created in 2025. How effective is this tool for attracting investment, reducing import dependence, and developing exports? And how will the SEZ model evolve within the framework of the Single Coordination Center? Yerlan Kusainov, Deputy Chairman of the Board of JSC Kazakhstan Center for Industry and Export “QazIndustry,” discussed these issues with The Times of Central Asia. TCA: Kazakhstan currently has 17 SEZs. How many companies operate in them, and what is the total volume of production? Kusainov: There are 1,144 participants registered in SEZ territories. Of these, 558 projects are already operational, while another 586 are in the implementation stage. Since the establishment of the zones, enterprises have produced goods worth 13.9 trillion tenge (about $28 billion). The current occupancy rate of the SEZs is 42.4%. This indicator is dynamic and may change as new contracts are signed or as some participants cease operations. TCA: What types of products are manufactured in the SEZs, and how does this contribute to reducing import dependence? Kusainov: The SEZs cover a wide range of industries, including manufacturing, construction, transport and logistics, and tourism. For example, the Aktau Seaport SEZ is implementing projects in the chemical industry, including the production of caustic soda and hydrochloric acid by Topan Chemical Industries. These products are widely used in metallurgy, the oil and gas industry, and water treatment. Previously, a significant portion of such products was imported, but production is now being localized in Kazakhstan. A major petrochemical cluster is being formed in the Jibek Joly SEZ. Projects there include the production of mineral fertilizers, chemical reagents, and polymer products. Participating companies include HIM-plus, KPM Plast, Chemical Engineering, and C9 Technologies. These projects are expected to supply the domestic market while also supporting exports. In the Pavlodar SEZ, projects are being implemented in metallurgy and petrochemicals. These include the production of calcined petroleum coke by UPNC-PV, car wheels by Vector Pavlodar, and aluminum ingots and alloys by LeichtMetall KZ and Unimetals. These products are exported to markets in Europe and Asia. The Ontustik SEZ focuses on the textile industry, where a full cotton-processing cycle has been established, from raw materials to finished products. Enterprises there produce cotton and synthetic yarn, carpets, and other textile goods. Another important site is the Park of Innovative Technologies SEZ, where projects in digital technologies and electronics are being developed. Key participants include the Institute of Physics and Technology, KT Cloud Lab, which is building a data center, and DS Multimedia CA, which manufactures electronic components. Together, these projects contribute to reducing import dependence and building export-oriented industries. TCA: What is the export volume of SEZ enterprises? Kusainov: The total export volume from SEZ enterprises has reached about $2 billion. In 2025 alone, exports amounted to approximately $490 million, compared with $148 million in 2021, an increase of 231%. TCA: How much investment has been attracted through the SEZs? Kusainov: Over the entire period of...

Economic Growth

Central Asia Accounts for 1.3% of Global Economic Growth

A recent study by Visual Capitalist, based on projections from the International Monetary Fund, maps who is powering global growth in 2026. The analysis highlights heavyweights like China, which accounts for 26.6% of global GDP growth, India at 17.0%, and the United States at 9.9%. Together, these three economies account for roughly 53–54% of global economic expansion, underscoring their scale and sustained growth momentum. Yet beneath those headline figures lies a quieter but strategically important development: Central Asia is steadily increasing its contribution to global economic growth. According to the study, Kazakhstan is set to contribute 0.7% of total global GDP growth in 2026, making it the clear regional anchor. Uzbekistan adds 0.4%. Turkmenistan will contribute 0.1%, while both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will account for approximately 0.05% each. Taken together, this amounts to a 1.3% share of global GDP growth. While modest in absolute terms, the figure is notable given the region’s scale. With a population of over 80 million—comparable to Germany and Turkey—Central Asia’s aggregate contribution compares with these mid-sized advanced economies, which account for roughly 0.9% and 2.2% of global growth respectively. Moreover, with projected average annual growth exceeding 6%, Central Asian economies are expanding faster than much of Europe and other mature markets, reinforcing their rising relative contribution to global economic momentum.

Economic Growth

Central Asia Records Over 6% Growth as Trade with Russia Expands

Central Asian economies concluded 2025 with growth exceeding 6%, significantly outpacing major developed markets such as the United States and the Eurozone, where expansion stood at approximately 1.6% and 1.1%, respectively, according to Turkish newspaper Yeni Şafak. The figure aligns with the World Bank who puts regional expansion at 6.2% and the Eurasian who Development Bank (EDB) estimates growth at 6.6%. Economists attribute the region’s performance to strong domestic demand, active state investment programs, infrastructure development, and rising exports of raw materials and industrial goods. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan accounted for the largest contributions to overall growth, supported by large-scale public investment initiatives and expanding foreign trade. By contrast, the U.S. and European economies experienced slower growth amid high interest rates, inflationary pressures, and weaker consumer demand. Uzbek economist Mirkomil Kholboyev, writing on his Telegram channel, said the trend reflects deeper structural factors. “In general, the average real growth in Central Asia has almost always been higher than in the United States or Europe, with the exception of 2021,” he wrote. “Beyond short-term effects, lower-income countries like ours tend to grow faster than high-income economies. In wealthier countries, the return on additional capital has declined, while in our region capital remains scarce, allowing investments to generate higher returns. Demographic growth is also higher here, and the steady expansion of the labor force serves as an additional driver of economic growth.” Trade data indicate that Central Asia’s economic ties with Russia have strengthened in recent years. In 2021, the region accounted for 3.2% of Russia’s imports. By the first 10 months of 2025, that share had risen to 4.6%. Over the same period, Central Asia’s share of Russian exports increased from 5.6% to 7%. Overall, during the first 10 months of 2025, Central Asia ranked as Russia’s third-largest import partner and fourth-largest export destination. Before the war in Ukraine, the region ranked seventh among Russia’s import partners and fourth in exports. Although Russia’s economy remains significantly larger, reaching approximately $2.1 trillion in 2024 and exceeding the combined size of Central Asian economies by about 4.4 times, the increase in trade shares over the past four years is notable. Kholboyev also noted that part of the rise in imports is attributable to re-export activity.

Economic Growth

Trade Accounted for More Than a Quarter of Kazakhstan’s Economic Growth in 2025

The trade sector accounted for 26% of Kazakhstan’s total economic growth in 2025, according to the Ministry of Trade and Integration. Data from the National Statistics Bureau show that the country’s GDP grew by 6.5% in January-December 2025, equivalent to $20.1 billion in nominal terms, bringing the total size of the economy to $305.9 billion. More than a quarter of this growth was generated by trade. At a government meeting, the Ministry of Trade and Integration reported that domestic trade turnover reached $162.3 billion in 2025, while investment in the sector amounted to $2.6 billion. Non-resource exports totaled $41 billion, and services exports increased by 3.7% to $12.3 billion. Speaking at the meeting, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin said the ministry’s objective is not only to maintain current momentum but also to raise trade to a new level of efficiency and competitiveness. Key priorities include expanding wholesale and retail turnover, increasing the share of domestically produced goods in the market, ensuring stable supplies of socially important products, shortening the supply chain between producers and retailers, boosting exports, and systematically reducing the shadow economy in the trade sector. Special emphasis was placed on measures to curb inflation and ensure adequate food supplies for the domestic market. According to Zhumangarin, a preliminary pool of approximately 1,500 projects has been formed under the “Investment Order” initiative. These projects are aimed at expanding the production of goods with high import dependence, including more than 500 in the agro-industrial complex, over 400 in manufacturing, and the remainder in infrastructure. The ministry’s key task is to secure guaranteed sales channels for products manufactured within these projects. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that trade between Central Asian countries and China exceeded $100 billion in 2025, setting a new record.

Economic Growth

Tajikistan Reports Strong 8.4% Economic Growth in 2025

Tajikistan’s economy grew by 8.4% in 2025, according to official data released by the country’s statistical authorities, marking one of the strongest growth rates in Central Asia last year. President Emomali Rahmon announced the figure during a year-end address to parliament, saying gross domestic product reached approximately 173 billion somoni, or about $18.8 billion. Official data shows growth was driven primarily by industry, construction, agriculture, and services. The Statistical Agency under the President of Tajikistan reported that industrial production increased by more than 20% year-on-year, supported by mining, metallurgy, cement production, and food processing. Construction activity also expanded, reflecting continued state investment in roads, housing, and energy infrastructure. Authorities highlighted ongoing work on the Rogun hydropower project as a central pillar of economic policy. The dam is expected to secure the domestic electricity supply and boost exports once fully operational, particularly to neighboring markets. Remittances remained a key contributor to economic growth in 2025. Transfers from Tajik migrant workers, most of whom are employed in Russia, rose during the year, supporting household consumption and helping offset external economic pressures. According to the World Bank, remittances have accounted for a very large share of Tajikistan’s GDP, with personal remittances near 48% of GDP in recent years, leaving the economy highly exposed to labor market conditions abroad. Foreign trade turnover also increased. Exports of electricity, metals, and agricultural products rose, while imports of machinery, fuel, and construction materials expanded alongside investment activity. Regional media reported that China, Russia, and neighboring Central Asian states remained Tajikistan’s main trading partners in 2025. Despite the strong headline growth, international financial institutions have continued to flag structural weaknesses. The International Monetary Fund has warned that sustaining high growth will require reforms to improve governance, strengthen the banking sector, and expand the role of the private sector in the economy. Analysts also note that rapid growth partly reflects a low statistical base and heavy reliance on state-led investment. Job creation in higher-value sectors remains limited, contributing to continued labor migration and leaving the economy vulnerable to external shocks. The government has set similarly ambitious targets for 2026, with officials emphasizing industrialization, infrastructure development, and energy exports. Whether Tajikistan can maintain its pace of growth while addressing long-standing structural constraints will remain a key test for the country’s economic trajectory in the coming years.

Economy

Kazakhstan’s Economy Grew by 6.5% in 2025

Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 6.5% year-on-year in January-December 2025, according to preliminary data from the National Statistics Bureau. The Ministry of National Economy reported that the key drivers of GDP growth were industry, transport, construction, and trade. At year-end, the industrial production index stood at 7.4%, with the manufacturing sector showing steady growth of 6.4%. Positive dynamics in industry were attributed to an 8.1% increase in food production, a 5.9% rise in oil refining, 9.8% growth in the chemical industry, a 1.2% uptick in metallurgy, and a 12.9% increase in machine building . The transport and warehousing sector recorded a substantial 20.4% growth in 2025, driven by increased freight transport by road and rail, alongside growth in passenger transport across various regions. The volume of ancillary transport services also expanded, including freight forwarding, air traffic control, airport and warehouse operations, and grain and refrigerated cargo storage. Construction surged by 15.9%, linked to the implementation of major infrastructure and social development projects, including the building of schools, medical facilities, and transport and engineering infrastructure. In the same period, 20.1 million square meters of housing were commissioned, a 5.1% increase from 2024. Trade posted an 8.9% increase by the end of the year, led by wholesale trade, which comprised more than two-thirds of the sector’s volume. Notably, wholesale trade in grain, seeds, and animal feed rose by 160%, trade in equipment nearly doubled, and pharmaceutical sales increased by 44.1%. Sales of automobiles grew by 33%, while dairy products, eggs, edible oils, and fats rose by 25.8%, and sugar, chocolate, and confectionery products by 21.2%. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries grew by 5.9%, supported by a 7.8% increase in crop production and 3.3% in livestock production. The information and communications sector posted 3.6% growth. “Overall, the pace of economic development reflects the steady growth of key industries,” the Ministry of National Economy stated. For comparison, GDP growth in 2024 stood at 5%, with the largest contributions from construction (15.3%), agriculture, forestry, and fisheries (13.7%), transportation and warehousing (9.4%), wholesale and retail trade (8.9%), and manufacturing (6.8%). As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev forecast in early December 2025 that GDP would exceed 6% growth by year-end.