Investment - The Times Of Central Asia

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Economic Growth

Uzbekistan Raises 2026 Growth Forecast to 8.1%

Uzbekistan has raised its 2026 economic growth forecast from 6.6% to 8.1%, after stronger-than-expected performance last year and in the first quarter of 2026. The Ministry of Economy and Finance’s updated Fiscal Strategy for 2027-2029 projects nominal GDP of 2.183 quadrillion soums this year (about $180 billion). The revision follows growth of 7.7% in 2025, above the original 6.6% forecast, and an 8.7% expansion in the first quarter of 2026. The ministry expects market services to grow by 16.6% in 2026, industrial production by 8%, construction by 12.4%, and agriculture by 5%. Inflation is forecast to slow to 6.5%, while unemployment falls from 4.8% in 2025 to 4.5%. The stronger projection rests partly on domestic demand. The strategy expects non-gold exports to rise by 20%, capital investment by 12.9%, and remittance growth to remain around 10%. Separate Central Bank figures show that remittances rose 13% to $3.8 billion in the first quarter, helping to support household spending even as Russia’s share of transfers declined. Growth is forecast to slow to 6.9% in 2027, before rising to 7.1% in 2028 and 7.4% in 2029. Inflation is projected at 5-6% in 2027 and 5% in 2028 and 2029. The government also intends to keep the fiscal deficit within its rules and public debt below 40% of GDP. The Ministry of Economy and Finance says meeting these targets will require stronger tax administration, fewer ineffective exemptions, tighter oversight of public-private partnerships, and further action against the shadow economy. It also plans more transparent medium-term budgeting and closer scrutiny of fiscal risks. The success of those reforms will determine whether rapid growth can be sustained without weakening public finances. The fiscal strategy uses the IMF’s April global outlook as part of its external assumptions. The government’s estimate is considerably more optimistic than the IMF’s 6.8% forecast. In its June assessment, the Fund said Uzbekistan’s outlook remained favorable but warned that the economy could be running above its potential. It identified weaker global conditions and domestic overheating as the principal risks. The revised figures also strengthen the government’s claim that the Uzbekistan-2030 Strategy target of an economy worth more than $240 billion remains achievable. The plan relies on private investment, export growth, higher productivity, and continued macroeconomic reforms. Economist Otabek Bakirov said the 8.1% projection would mark the strongest growth in Uzbekistan’s recent history. “According to the Fiscal Strategy forecasts, economic growth will accelerate to 8.1% in 2026. If this happens, it will become a new record for the country’s recent history,” he wrote in an analysis of the forecast. In a separate calculation, Bakirov put nominal GDP above $205 billion in 2027, $228 billion in 2028, and $257 billion in 2029. On that path, the $240 billion target would be surpassed a year early. However, he cautioned that the scenario depends on maintaining strong growth, low inflation, and exchange-rate stability, without a major domestic or external crisis. A weaker soum would reduce the dollar value of GDP even if output continued to rise quickly...

Central Asia + Japan

Patient Capital, Fast Deals: Japan and South Korea Take Different Paths into Central Asia

Japan and South Korea have reached the same strategic conclusion: Central Asia matters to their economic security. Yet they are pursuing that goal through markedly different playbooks. In December 2025, Tokyo hosted the first leaders' summit of the "Central Asia plus Japan" Dialogue, 21 years after the format was launched. All five Central Asian presidents attended. Japan set a target of three trillion yen in business projects across the region over five years - roughly $19 billion at the time - while placing critical-mineral supply chains among the summit's priority areas. The bilateral announcements were equally significant. Uzbekistan presented a proposed project portfolio worth more than $12 billion and called for a joint investment platform to advance it. Kazakhstan and Japan announced a package of public- and private-sector agreements worth $3.7 billion. These included a long-term uranium contract and an offtake agreement under which Kazakhstan's Eurasian Resources Group would supply gallium to Mitsubishi Corporation RTM Japan. The timing was no accident. By May 2026, Chinese shipments to Japan of dysprosium and terbium remained close to zero, while exports of finished rare earth magnets to Japan fell 35% from the previous month. These materials are essential to high-performance magnets. For Tokyo, diversifying critical mineral supply is no longer a distant policy objective; it is an immediate industrial requirement. South Korea has been moving toward the same destination by a different route. During then-President Yoon Suk Yeol's state visit to Kazakhstan in 2024, the two countries signed a critical minerals memorandum allowing Korean companies to participate in the exploration and development of lithium, chromium, uranium, and rare earths. Seoul is now preparing to host the first Korea-Central Asia summit on September 16-17, 2026, elevating years of bilateral and multilateral engagement to the leaders' level. [caption id="attachment_52351" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: Japan Cabinet Public Affairs Office[/caption] Why Central Asia Counts Both Japan and South Korea are resource-poor manufacturing powers whose leading industries depend on secure supplies of imported minerals. South Korea imports more than 95% of the critical minerals it consumes. Japan received its own warning in 2010, when Chinese rare earth shipments were disrupted during a territorial dispute, and the pressure has returned in a sharper form in 2026. Central Asia cannot replace China in the short term, but it offers Tokyo and Seoul a credible route toward diversification. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan combine substantial mineral potential with governments eager to attract investment, technology, and new export markets. Kazakhstan is already a major producer of uranium and chromium, and has significant copper, titanium, and rare earth prospects. In April 2025, Kazakhstan announced the possible discovery of a rare earth deposit containing more than 20 million metric tons of resources. If further exploration confirms that estimate, the country could possess one of the world's largest rare earth resource bases. However, the distinction between a resource estimate and a usable supply chain is crucial. A discovery is not a producing mine, and a mine is not a processing industry. Exploration, environmental approvals, infrastructure, separation, refining, and...

Titanium

UKTMP Eyes Expanded U.S. Presence as Kazakhstan’s Titanium Champion Seeks New Markets

ASTANA — On June 11, Sylvain Gehler, Chairman of the Board of the Ust-Kamenogorsk Titanium and Magnesium Plant (UKTMP), and Assem Mamutova, the company’s CEO, spoke with The Times of Central Asia during the Astana Mining and Metallurgy Congress (AMM). He outlined their plans to strengthen the company’s international footprint, with the United States emerging as a priority market. During the meeting, Gehler highlighted UKTMP’s ambition to further solidify its position as a leading aerospace-grade titanium supplier, building on six decades of operations and what Kazakh officials describe as roughly one-fifth of the global aerospace titanium market. “The combination of Kazakhstan’s resource base, UKTMP’s decades of experience, and the increasing importance of secure supply chains creates a strong platform for future growth. We are committed to remaining a trusted partner for aerospace customers around the world,” Gehler said. UKTMP, based in eastern Kazakhstan, is among the world’s largest vertically integrated titanium producers, controlling the entire production chain from raw materials to finished products. The company’s products are used in aviation, medicine, shipbuilding, petrochemicals, and nuclear industries. Among its international partners are Boeing, Airbus, Safran, General Electric, and other leading manufacturers. [caption id="attachment_50948" align="aligncenter" width="708"] UKTMP -Titanium sponge at the end of the distillation process[/caption] Gehler emphasized that “delivering consistent, high-quality titanium products reflects our commitment to rigorous standards and positions us to meet rising demand for resilient, transparent supply chains while expanding in key markets.” The company’s long-term development plans and initiatives aim at reinforcing Kazakhstan’s standing in the global titanium industry. According to Gehler, “UKTMP’s investment program through 2033 includes 25 projects worth more than $520 million, including construction of a new titanium sponge facility that would significantly expand production capacity.” Currently, UKTMP has 30 types of titanium alloys. Titanium and its alloys combine a high melting point, high electrical resistivity, exceptional strength-to-weight ratio, corrosion resistance in air and seawater, and non-magnetic behavior. It is also lightweight—its specific gravity is approximately 56% that of steel—biologically inert, and readily formed under pressure, making titanium a versatile structural material widely used in advanced industries. United States Demand for Titanium The American aerospace and defense sectors rely heavily on titanium, while disruptions to traditional supply chains following sanctions on Russia have heightened interest in alternative suppliers. Kazakhstan has emerged as one of the countries helping fill that gap. [caption id="attachment_50961" align="aligncenter" width="1447"] Source: USGS[/caption] Industry analysts note that the United States currently lacks domestic titanium sponge production and remains dependent on imports. In 2025 through July, Japan supplied 73% of U.S. titanium sponge imports, while Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia each supplied 13%. This strategic reliance underpins the favorable treatment the U.S. currently gives to Kazakh titanium, since heavy supply restrictions would adversely impact the U.S. aerospace and defense industries. This has not always been the case. For UKTMP, deeper access to the U.S. market represents not only a commercial opportunity but the makings of a strategic partnership. Increasing sales to American customers would further anchor Kazakhstan within Western aerospace and other supply...

U.S.-Uzbekistan Partnership

Uzbekistan Agrees Tariff Cuts for U.S. Goods as Moody’s Raises Sovereign Rating

Uzbekistan and the United States announced a new package of trade commitments on June 25. Moody’s raised Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating by one notch the same day. The two decisions strengthen Tashkent’s case that economic reforms are producing practical gains. Under the “early harvest” announced in Tashkent, Uzbekistan will eliminate or reduce tariffs on a wide range of U.S. industrial and agricultural goods. Washington offered favorable consideration for Uzbek products in future tariff actions, where U.S. law allows, though that language does not guarantee automatic tariff cuts for Uzbek exports. The two governments will put the commitments in writing in the coming weeks. They also agreed to speed up negotiations on an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade and Investment. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev discussed the package with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer during talks in Tashkent. The announcement gives a political lift to a relationship which is still small in terms of trade. U.S. goods trade with Uzbekistan reached over $1 billion in 2025. American exports rose 24.5% to $473.9 million, while imports from Uzbekistan climbed to $574.4 million, turning a $338.3 million U.S. surplus in 2024 into a $100.5 million deficit. The latest agreement builds on $32 billion in commercial deals announced in 2025. That figure includes an $8.5 billion Boeing agreement and planned activity in mining, energy, finance, and technology. Tashkent has also built new channels to move projects toward financing. A U.S.-Uzbekistan Business and Investment Council began work in April. A joint investment platform followed in June, with energy, infrastructure, critical minerals, and manufacturing among its target sectors. The Tashkent business forum drew 193 U.S. company representatives. Saida Mirziyoyeva, head of Uzbekistan’s presidential administration, set a clear standard at the council’s launch. “We are no longer at the stage where we speak about potential,” she said. “We are at the stage where we must deliver.” That goal extends to Uzbekistan’s long WTO accession process. The country applied to join in 1994, but negotiations stalled for years. Tashkent resumed active work in 2020 and completed bilateral market-access negotiations with the United States in December 2024. The U.S. agreement settled terms for trade in goods and services between the two countries. It did not complete Uzbekistan’s accession. Tashkent still needs an agreed multilateral package and approval from WTO members. Uzbek officials now aim to secure full membership by the end of 2026. The timetable has already moved beyond an earlier target linked to the WTO ministerial conference in March. Negotiations cover tariffs and market access, but also reach domestic rules on subsidies, state-owned companies, product standards, and intellectual property. Some industries may receive time to adjust. Chief WTO negotiator Azizbek Urunov said that transition periods of three to eight years had been discussed for some sectors. “Overall, tariffs will be reduced,” he said. “However, there are sectors that are sensitive for us.” WTO membership would place Uzbekistan’s trade policy under a common set of rules and give exporters access to the organization’s dispute system. It would also limit some forms of state...

EU-Kazakhstan Cooperation

Tokayev Heads to Brussels as Kazakhstan and EU Seek Progress on Trade, Minerals and Transport

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev arrived in Brussels on June 22 seeking to advance cooperation with the European Union on critical minerals, transport connectivity, investment, and visa facilitation, as Kazakhstan and the EU move from framework agreements toward implementation. Tokayev’s official visit brings him together with the European Union's two senior institutional leaders and Belgium's prime minister. Tokayev is scheduled to meet European Council President António Costa at 7 p.m. on Monday. A joint meeting with Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set for Tuesday. His program also includes Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever and a Kazakhstan-EU roundtable with senior European business executives. The announced agenda covers the enhanced partnership, bilateral ties and international issues. The business roundtable will focus on investment, trade and joint projects. Ahead of the meetings, Tokayev set out three priorities for the next phase of relations: “strengthening resilience, expanding connectivity of all kinds, and creating new opportunities for citizens.” He linked them to energy and food security, critical raw materials, the Middle Corridor, artificial intelligence, easier travel, education and research. The visit follows a year of closer ties. The EU and the five Central Asian states raised their relationship to a strategic partnership at the Samarkand summit in April 2025. Costa then visited Astana in December. Those meetings placed critical minerals, transport, energy, digital links and easier travel at the center of cooperation. A Partnership Built on the EPCA The Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement gives the relationship its legal basis. Kazakhstan and the EU signed it in 2015, and it entered into force on March 1, 2020, making Kazakhstan the first Central Asian country to conclude such an agreement with the EU. The EPCA covers 29 policy areas, including trade, investment, energy, transport, climate, research, justice, and human rights. The broad range allows both sides to pursue commercial and political work through one framework. The agreement reached its tenth anniversary in December 2025. Before his Astana visit, Costa set a clear goal for the coming years. “The next decade must be defined by implementation: stronger value chains, modernised infrastructure, deeper technological cooperation, and tangible joint projects,” Costa said. Large Volumes, Limited Diversification The EU remained Kazakhstan's main trade and investment partner in 2025. Two-way goods trade totaled €41.4 billion, down 10.7% from 2024. EU imports from Kazakhstan reached €30.8 billion, while EU exports were €10.6 billion. The mix is less balanced. Fuel and mining products accounted for 92% of Kazakh exports to the EU. Machinery, transport equipment and chemicals led European sales to Kazakhstan. That gives the Brussels business roundtable a clear economic focus. Kazakhstan wants more European capital in processing, manufacturing, infrastructure and technology, while European companies want reliable access to energy and raw materials, along with clear investment rules. “We see great opportunities to venture in energy efficiency, critical minerals, digital technologies, and transport connectivity,” Tokayev said after meeting Costa in Astana in December. Critical Minerals Move Closer to Investment The EU and Kazakhstan signed a strategic partnership on...

Investment

Kazakhstan Strengthens Position as Central Asia’s Investment Hub, AIFC Head Says

Central Asia is moving beyond its traditional role as a transit corridor and emerging as an investment destination in its own right, according to Renat Bekturov, Governor of the Astana International Financial Centre. He said investors increasingly value transparent institutions, predictable law and capital protection alongside geography and natural resources. Bekturov noted that Kazakhstan remains the European Union’s largest partner in Central Asia, accounting for more than 80% of the EU’s trade with the region. In 2025, trade turnover between Kazakhstan and the European Union reached $45.1 billion, while cumulative European investment since 2005 exceeded $200 billion. More than 4,000 companies with European participation operate in the country, including TotalEnergies, Siemens, Airbus and Schneider Electric. The AIFC chief stressed that an important element of this transformation has been Kazakhstan’s new financial infrastructure. Established in 2018 and operating under the principles of English common law, the AIFC, as of 2026, brings together more than 5,600 companies from 90 countries, including more than 730 from Europe. According to the AIFC, more than $21.8 billion in investment has been raised through its platform, and its ecosystem has created more than 10,000 jobs. Bekturov also highlighted the development of the Astana International Exchange, which he said has become a platform for launching new financial instruments, including the region’s first IPO in Chinese yuan, Kazakhstan’s first spot Bitcoin ETF, and what AIX describes as the world’s first spot Solana ETF with staking. Bekturov also emphasized the AIFC’s role in advancing sustainable finance. Through the AIFC Green Finance Centre, Kazakhstan introduced Central Asia’s first national green taxonomy, while about 70% of the country’s green bonds and loans are verified within the center’s ecosystem. Beyond the traditional financial sector, the AIFC is also developing initiatives in mining, Islamic finance, aircraft leasing, digital assets and the creative economy. In Bekturov’s view, Kazakhstan could become a key link between European capital and Central Asia’s growing opportunities in the coming years, particularly in critical minerals, clean energy, logistics and digital infrastructure. “In a world where uncertainty has become part of every deal, trust is becoming one of the most valuable assets,” Bekturov concluded.