Investment - The Times Of Central Asia

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Investment

Tajikistan’s Reliance on External Funding for State Investment Projects Is Growing

Tajikistan continues to implement a large-scale state investment programme. International financial institutions play a key role in financing these projects, however, while the government's own contribution remains limited. According to data from the State Committee on Investment and State Property Management, 82 state investment projects are currently under way in the country The total value of ongoing initiatives is estimated at approximately $4.67 billion. Of these, 55 projects are being implemented on a grant basis, five through loans, and another 22 have mixed financing. About $3 billion has already been allocated for procurement, works, and services related to the implementation of these projects. However, more than 70% of the funding is provided by just three international institutions. The World Bank remains the largest donor, contributing $1.725 billion (36.9%). It is followed by the Asian Development Bank with $914.7 million (19.5%) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) with $658.1 million (14.1%). Other investors include the Islamic Development Bank ($207.9 million), the Chinese government ($194.9 million), the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ($142.5 million), the German Development Bank ($129.3 million), and the European Investment Bank ($114.8 million). Against the backdrop of extensive external financing, Tajikistan’s own contribution remains small. The state is investing approximately $151.2 million, accounting for only 3.2% of the total. This means that the implementation of key infrastructure and social projects largely depends on international donors and lenders. At the same time, in 2025 Tajikistan managed to significantly increase capital inflows. Foreign investment reached approximately $7 billion, rising by nearly $2 billion (35.1%) compared with the previous year. The authorities hope to sustain this momentum by improving the investment climate, including through legislative updates. A key step was the adoption on May 14, 2025, of a new version of the law “On Investments and the Promotion of Investment Activity,” aimed at increasing the country’s attractiveness to international partners. The current development model allows Tajikistan to implement large-scale projects that would be difficult to carry out relying solely on domestic resources. However, this financing structure also increases dependence on external sources, making the economy more sensitive to the conditions set by international institutions and the global financial environment.

Investment

Public-Private Partnership Makes Strides in Kazakhstan

In Kazakhstan, public-private partnerships (PPPs) have become a mechanism for implementing infrastructure projects using limited government financial resources. At a briefing on February 25, Aslan Kaligazin, Chairman of the Management Board of the Kazakhstan Public-Private Partnership Center, spoke about public-private partnership development in 2025 and outlined priorities for the future. According to Kaligazin, Kazakhstan has so far concluded 1,257 PPPs and concession agreements totaling KZT 3.6 trillion (€7.19bn). Of these, 697 projects are currently being implemented. Only 17 these projects are implemented at the national level, while accounting for more than half (KZT 1.8 trillion, $3.6bn) of the total projects’ value. The absolute majority of the PPPs – 1,240 projects – are being implemented at the local level. The projects mainly concentrate in the social sector, healthcare, education, energy, and housing and utilities, together accounting for over 88% of all contracts. Transport and infrastructure represent a significant share in value terms: around 27% of the total portfolio. Kaligazin noted that PPP in Kazakhstan has been undergoing a transformation in recent years: while the number of contracts is declining, the average project size is increasing. Prior to 2022, the average project cost stood at approximately KZT 6 billion ($11.99 million, but increased to KZT 18 billion ($25.97 million) in 2022–2025. The portfolio is increasingly shaped not by small social facilities, but by large-scale and technologically sophisticated infrastructure projects. Among the most capital-intensive projects of 2025 were the construction of Industrial Park No. 2 in the Astana Technopolis Special Economic Zone, and a project to introduce AI-based solutions into Astana’s security and urban infrastructure management system. The Kazakhstan Public-Private Partnership Center’s future plans include identifying priority infrastructure and sectoral segments where PPPs should become the primary project delivery mechanism. A list of areas will be formed in which PPP projects will gradually replace projects financed exclusively from the state budget. “Our task is not to formally expand the PPP portfolio, but to develop sustainable, well-structured projects that deliver long-term economic impact and tangible benefits for citizens,” Kaligazin concluded. In recent years, Kazakhstan has adopted legislative amendments increasing the efficiency and transparency of PPP project planning. PPP contracts are now concluded solely on a competitive basis, and the planning and competitive selection procedures have been digitalized, according to the Ministry of National Economy. To engage private business in the creation of social infrastructure, a Comprehensive PPP Development Plan for 2024–2028 was adopted, providing for the implementation of 43 projects in the areas of education, healthcare, sports, and social protection.

Economic Growth

Kazakhstan Projects Strong GDP Growth as Economy Nears 300 Billion Dollars in 2025

Kazakhstan’s economy is entering a new phase of growth. By the end of 2025, the country’s gross domestic product is projected to exceed $300 billion for the first time, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced at a national award ceremony for the Altyn Sapa, Paryz, and Best Product of Kazakhstan prizes. Over the past decade, Kazakhstan’s GDP has shown consistent growth in absolute terms, with the exception of the pandemic year of 2020, when the economy contracted to $171.1 billion. Since then, the country has reached new historical highs each year, from $197.1 billion in 2021 to $288.41 billion in 2024. In 2025, growth is expected to reach a record level.The president noted that, over the past five years, growth in the real sector has become noticeably more balanced. Gross value added in the manufacturing industry increased by 25 percent, outpacing growth in the extractive sector. “Economic growth is expected to exceed 6% this year,” Tokayev said. “Moreover, GDP is projected to exceed $300 billion for the first time” The president highlighted that, over the past five years, growth in the real sector has become noticeably more balanced. Gross value added in the manufacturing industry increased by 25%, outpacing the growth of the extractive sector. Investments in fixed capital grew by 70% over the same period, and labor productivity rose by 40%. As a result, non-resource exports doubled, the number of exporters tripled, and the geography of supply expanded to 140 countries. According to Tokayev, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) now account for 40% of GDP and remain one of the most dynamic segments of the economy. “Over the past five years, the number of SMEs has increased by 1.5 times, and their output by 2.5 times. Today, 4.5 million people work in the business sector, almost half of the country’s employed population,” the president said. Tokayev also placed particular emphasis on the finalization of certain provisions in the new Tax Code, which is set to take effect in 2026. The president acknowledged that he had received a large number of appeals from entrepreneurs and instructed the government to carefully review the most problematic provisions. “It is important to understand that the sustainable development of entrepreneurship is based on the fulfillment of mutual obligations: the state creates the climate, and businesses pay taxes. The government must find a reasonable balance, there is no other option,” he stated. The president also called for continued development of the country’s digital business ecosystem to enhance transparency and reduce bureaucratic hurdles. Kazakhstan plans to significantly increase investment in its economy over the next five years, with the goal of nearly tripling its volume by 2029.

Turkic Investment Fund

Turkic Investment Fund to Launch Operations in Early 2026

At a meeting held in Bishkek on December 5, the Board of Governors of the Turkic Investment Fund (TIF) announced that the Fund will begin its operational activities in the first quarter of 2026. With an initial authorized capital of 500 million dollars and a potential increase to 1.5 billion dollars, the TIF is the first dedicated financial institution jointly established by the Turkic states. Its mission is to enhance economic cooperation, boost intra-regional trade, and support sustainable development across the Turkic world. Headquartered in Istanbul, the Fund will finance major joint projects among member states of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). The OTS, founded in 2009, includes Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Hungary and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus participate as observer states. The TIF was officially established during an extraordinary OTS summit in Ankara in March 2023, with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan as founding members. Hungary joined in June 2024, while Turkmenistan maintains observer status. According to the Board of Governors, the institutional infrastructure required for TIF operations was largely completed in 2025, and preparatory work on a pipeline of investment projects is currently underway. The Board emphasized that the decision to initiate operations reflects growing expectations among member states for the Fund to begin allocating resources and advancing strategic initiatives. During the Bishkek meeting, Uzbekistan’s representative, Laziz Kudratov, Minister of Investment, Industry and Trade, was elected Chairman of the TIF Board of Governors. The Fund will pursue its mandate by offering preferential loans, co-financing projects alongside international financial institutions, and attracting private investment into key sectors of the region’s economies. Following the inaugural meeting of the TIF Board in Istanbul in May 2024, the Turkish Ministry of Finance projected that the combined economic output of the Turkic states would reach $1.9 trillion by the end of 2024, with a population of approximately 178 million.

energy saving

EBRD and EU Allocate €43 Million to Modernize Tajikistan’s Power Grid

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the European Union have announced a joint initiative to enhance the reliability and transparency of Tajikistan’s electricity distribution system. Under the agreement, a €43 million financing package will support the state-owned electricity distributor Shabakahoi Taqsimoti Barq (STB). The funding aims to reduce technical losses and improve efficiency by upgrading essential infrastructure. The “Energy Loss Reduction” project was officially signed on December 4 at Tajikistan’s Ministry of Finance. The agreement was endorsed by Minister of Finance Faiziddin Kahhorzoda and the EBRD’s permanent representative in Tajikistan, Holger Wiefel. The project is backed by €28 million in sovereign loans from the EBRD and €15 million in EU grants via the Asia-Pacific Investment Fund. Funds will be directed toward upgrading billing systems and installing new electricity metering equipment in nine cities across the Sughd and Khatlon regions. These areas are among the most affected by outdated infrastructure, which contributes to technical power losses, inaccurate metering, and the reduced financial viability of STB. The modernization program includes digitizing STB’s core operations and implementing cybersecurity measures to safeguard the national power grid. Technical assistance from both the EU and EBRD will support the rollout of these reforms. A key component of the initiative is human capital development. Specialized training programs on sustainable technologies and modern energy sector skills will be offered, with a focus on youth and women. This is intended to enhance the qualifications of local professionals and strengthen the regional labor market. The EBRD remains one of Tajikistan’s most significant international investors. To date, the bank has invested more than €1 billion across 188 projects in various sectors. The new energy initiative reflects the continued strategic role of international partners in supporting the modernization of Tajikistan’s critical infrastructure.

Middle Powers

Which Central Asian States Qualify as Middle Powers in 2025?

As global power shifts toward multipolarity, Central Asia’s states are emerging as active regional players. This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. 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This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. Economic Power Economic autonomy is a defining attribute of middle-power capability, enabling states to project influence, sustain policy independence, and finance external engagement. In Central Asia, dependence on Official Development Assistance (ODA) and remittances often reflects constrained fiscal capacity and limited domestic capital formation, while diversified, resilient economies underpin strategic autonomy. Key indicators—GDP per capita, credit ratings, debt sustainability, and export diversification—illuminate the region’s economic hierarchy. Kazakhstan stands as Central Asia’s only consolidated economic middle power. Resource-backed growth, a prudent fiscal regime, and a sovereign wealth fund (the National Fund of Kazakhstan) have anchored macroeconomic stability. With a “BBB” credit rating or equivalent from major agencies, Kazakhstan demonstrates sound debt management and policy credibility. Ongoing diversification efforts under the new economic policies—from renewables to financial modernization—aim to reduce hydrocarbon dependence and deepen integration into global supply chains. Its role as a trans-Caspian logistics hub enhances both strategic and commercial influence. Uzbekistan, by contrast, is an emerging frontier market propelled by post-2017 reforms in currency liberalization, taxation, and state-enterprise restructuring. Rapid GDP growth and expanding private-sector activity mark its trajectory toward fiscal autonomy, though continued ODA inflows averaging around $1.1 billion to 1.3 billion annually, primarily from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the World Bank, and bilateral partners such as Japan, the United States, and the European Union, highlight its residual dependence on external concessional financing. To achieve genuine middle power status, Uzbekistan must roughly double its real economic output over the next decade, a scale of growth aligned with the shift...