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Astana Finance Days 2026

From Transit to Capital: What Investors Were Looking for in Kazakhstan at Astana Finance Days

On the second day of Astana Finance Days, Kazakhstan was trying to answer the question that follows almost every discussion about new railways, power plants, data centers, and factories: where will the money come from? International banks, asset managers, and stock exchanges gathered in Astana, and the conversation quickly reached a point – foreign capital is interested in the country, but its domestic stock market remains too small for many large investors. From Transit to Transactions The title of the first major discussion of the second day – “From Transit to Transactions” – neatly captured the idea. Kazakhstan already earns money from its position between China and Europe and is investing billions in railways, ports, and energy infrastructure. Now Astana wants financial transactions to move alongside the freight, and some of that capital to remain in the country. The Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), where the forum is being held, was created partly for that purpose. It is a separate financial jurisdiction within Kazakhstan, with its own regulator, court, and legal framework based on the principles of English common law. According to the center, by June 2026 its platform had helped attract $25.3 billion in investment to Kazakhstan, while the number of registered companies had exceeded 5,800. But the presence of international companies does not necessarily mean they are ready to invest. Jad Ellawn, Managing Partner for the Middle East at Brookfield, one of the world’s largest alternative asset managers, began with three conditions. “The fundamental principles for an investor looking to enter a country consist of three components. First is having the proper legislation. Second is respect for capital: a country needs to demonstrate that capital is important to it not only domestically, but beyond its borders. Third is scalability,” he said. “In addition to energy resources, Kazakhstan has many other natural resources, and your country is the ninth-largest country in the world. This means you have many potential industries that you could develop, unlike the Gulf.” Yilmaz Kocagoz of Goldman Sachs, one of the largest U.S. investment banks, looked at Kazakhstan through the lens of manufacturing and infrastructure. “For Kazakhstan to diversify its economy beyond commodities, it needs to develop manufacturing and infrastructure,” he said. Kocagoz also pointed to Kazakhstan’s relatively low government debt burden. For an investor, that means a smaller share of the country’s future revenues is already committed to servicing a large public debt. Nurlan Zhakupov, the CEO of Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund Samruk-Kazyna, put a price tag on the country’s investment program: more than 100 projects worth $105 billion. “We see demand from local businesses and enormous interest from foreign partners. We are also seeing growing consumption of electricity and natural gas, as well as demand for the transportation of electricity, oil, gas, and petroleum products,” Zhakupov said. He ended with an invitation: “Overall, Kazakhstan currently has a good business climate, and now is a good time to enter the Kazakh economy.” The next discussion in the same building helped explain why that does...

Astana Finance Days 2026

Astana Finance Days: From BlackRock to Mining and Data Centers

In a trading hall in Astana, BlackRock was explaining why investors have become more cautious. A few floors away, geologists were pitching 23 mining projects, while financiers debated how many megawatts the next wave of artificial intelligence will require. That was how the first day of Astana Finance Days unfolded, as Kazakhstan brought together financial groups managing more than $26 trillion in assets – and sought to show them where that money could be put to work in Central Asia. The ninth Astana Finance Days is taking place on September 9–10 at the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), Kazakhstan’s special financial jurisdiction with its own regulator and a court system based on English common law principles. According to the organizers, around 8,000 participants from 90 countries registered for the forum. Institutions represented include BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Capital Group, Brookfield, Rothschild & Co., Hong Kong Investment Corporation, and IFC Asset Management Company. The stated $26 trillion refers to the combined assets under management of participating firms worldwide – not investment pledged to Kazakhstan. More concrete signals emerged on the sidelines. Meshal Jaber AlFaras, Janus Henderson Investors’ head of the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia, said the investment group is considering direct investments in Kazakhstan and plans to expand its presence in the country. Janus Henderson manages around $500 billion in assets. AlFaras did not disclose potential projects or investment amounts. A New Price for Risk One of the first day’s most prominent discussions took place at the Astana International Exchange (AIX), the AIFC’s stock exchange. Ben Powell, Chief Investment Strategist for the Asia-Pacific region at the BlackRock Investment Institute, spoke about how geopolitics is reshaping capital flows. “Today, we are in a structurally new regime – moving into a more complicated world where geopolitical fragmentation is intensifying, alliances are breaking down, and international relationships are changing. Of course, this affects investors. They need to completely rethink their approaches to investing,” Powell said. Higher inflation and interest rates, he continued, are changing attitudes toward risk. For smaller emerging markets, that means greater scrutiny of currency stability, regulation, and liquidity. A few halls away, that global discussion was already turning into pitches for specific mineral projects. From the Geological Map to the Investor Fifteen companies brought 23 mining projects to Astana Finance Days. Most are still at the exploration stage. In the industry, such companies are known as juniors. They search for mineral deposits and try to demonstrate that the resources they discover can eventually be mined profitably. For an ordinary bank, the risk is high: a promising area on a geological map does not yet guarantee a working mine. At the forum, companies briefly pitched their projects before moving into individual negotiations. More than ten Kazakh and international investors and strategic partners attended the pitch session. The Junior Mining Platform, launched this spring, is intended to turn this search for capital into a permanent mechanism. Private investors take on early geological risk; as reserves are confirmed and technical uncertainty declines, larger...

Astana Finance Days 2026

S&P Bolsters Kazakhstan’s Standing as Central Asia’s Financial Hub

S&P Global Ratings has improved its assessment of Kazakhstan’s banking industry as Astana Finance Days opens on September 9, lowering the industry risk score for the country’s banking system from 7 to 6 and citing stronger regulation and supervision. According to Kazakhstan’s Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market, the September 4 decision improved the industry risk component of S&P’s Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment, or BICRA. S&P also changed the trend on Kazakhstan’s separate economic risk assessment from stable to positive. S&P’s BICRA framework evaluates banking systems on a scale of 1 to 10, with lower numbers indicating lower risk. Industry risk assesses factors including banking regulation and supervision, competitive dynamics, and the stability of systemwide funding. Kazakhstan’s overall BICRA grouping remains at 7, while its industry risk score improved from 7 to 6. The industry risk comparison puts the change in perspective. S&P’s published assessments place the United States at 3, Germany at 4, and Brazil at 5. Kazakhstan’s new score of 6 places it alongside banking systems including Bahrain, Oman and Thailand in recent S&P assessments. Within Central Asia, the difference is wider. S&P has assigned Kyrgyzstan an industry-risk score of 8 and Uzbekistan a score of 9. S&P does not currently publish BICRA assessments for Tajikistan or Turkmenistan. S&P also considers Kazakhstan’s banking regulation and supervision more effective than those of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, according to the Kazakh regulator. Stronger Supervision The regulator attributed S&P’s decision to regular asset-quality reviews, risk-based supervisory assessments and measures to limit excessive bank risk-taking, particularly in retail lending. It also cited tighter capital and liquidity oversight and stress testing. The change has already affected individual institutions. The regulator reported an upgrade of the Bank Center Credit’s long-term rating to BB+, while Halyk Bank’s BBB− rating received a positive outlook, indicating the possibility of a future upgrade. The banking decision follows S&P’s August 21 sovereign upgrade from BBB− to BBB with a stable outlook. Kazakhstan remains Central Asia’s only investment-grade sovereign. In an interview with TCA, National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov linked that improvement to a stronger monetary policy framework, banking resilience, and closer coordination with the government. Kazakhstan also has Central Asia’s most developed capital markets. Almaty’s banks, professional services and Kazakhstan Stock Exchange operate alongside the Astana International Financial Centre and its exchange, giving the country an established concentration of financial business. Capital on the Agenda The timing of S&P’s decision gives the assessment added relevance as Kazakhstan hosts Astana Finance Days. The forum’s announced program includes regulation, law and market confidence, capital market development, and financing for the real economy. Organizers expect more than 5,500 participants from over 80 countries, with representatives of BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and Brookfield among the confirmed speakers. In an August 27 interview with TCA, Zhanbolat Kakishev, chief product officer at the AIFC Authority, said a cumulative $26.3 billion in investment had been attracted to Kazakhstan through the center’s ecosystem, which included more than 6,000 registered companies from 90 countries....

GDP Forecast

Kazakhstan Forecasts GDP Growth Above 5% in 2027–2029

Kazakhstan’s government has approved a socioeconomic development forecast and draft republican budget for 2027–2029, projecting average annual real GDP growth above 5% as manufacturing, agriculture, construction, transport, and other non-oil sectors expand. The forecast was prepared with reference to the global economic outlook and conditions in external markets. The accompanying draft budget, approved at the same government meeting chaired by Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, will be submitted to the Kurultai for consideration. Under the government’s baseline scenario, real GDP is projected to grow by 5.3% in 2027, 5.5% in 2028, and 5.4% in 2029. Nominal GDP is expected to rise from KZT 199.3 trillion in 2027 to KZT 245 trillion in 2029, an increase of almost 23%. Non-oil sectors are expected to provide the main impetus for expansion. Manufacturing output is forecast to grow by an average of 5.9% a year, substantially faster than the 2% projected for mining. Metallurgy, mechanical engineering, construction materials, chemicals, and food production are expected to make the largest contributions. Oil exports and the broader mining sector will remain central to the economy and public finances, but the forecast assumes that manufacturing and other non-oil activities will account for a larger share of new output. TCA reported in July that Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 4.1% in the first half of 2026 despite an 8.4% decline in oil production. The non-oil economy grew by more than 5%, with manufacturing, construction, trade, and transport accounting for more than 80% of overall growth. Manufacturing output increased by 9.8%. Agriculture is expected to expand by at least 5% annually. Construction is projected to remain among the fastest-growing sectors, increasing by 16% in 2027 and 17.3% in 2029. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin said the expansion would be supported by transport and logistics, energy, and water projects, together with the modernization of housing, utilities, and social infrastructure. The services sector is also expected to maintain strong momentum. Trade is forecast to expand by an average of 5.7% annually, information and communications by 9.2%, and transport and warehousing by 10.4%. The transport forecast builds on rapid expansion along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, or Middle Corridor. Annual freight volumes through Kazakhstan have risen from 0.8 million to 4.5 million tons over seven years, while delivery times fell from approximately 28–32 days to 13–17 days. The route still carries substantially less cargo than established northern corridors, and participating countries continue to work on remaining bottlenecks. Infrastructure spending is a central element of the draft budget, but Bektenov said it must be accompanied by stronger financial discipline. Under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s instructions, accelerated construction of infrastructure and social facilities has been designated as a principal budget priority. Government bodies were told to meet the approved economic targets, while administrators of budget programs were directed to increase the return on every tenge spent. The headline budget deficit is forecast to fall from 2.3% of GDP in 2027 to just 0.4% in 2029. However, the non-oil deficit, which measures the...

AIFC TCA Interviews

AIFC Interview: Central Asia Investment, Middle Corridor and ESG

The Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) positions itself as a platform for international investment in Kazakhstan and across Central Asia. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Zhanbolat Kakishev, Chief Product Officer at the AIFC Authority, discussed competition for investment, financing for the Middle Corridor, investor protection, ESG, and currency risks. Kakishev said the AIFC ecosystem has attracted $26.3 billion in investment to Kazakhstan and registered more than 6,000 companies from 90 countries. TCA: How does the AIFC assess the current investment climate in Central Asia amid the fragmentation of global markets, and what share of foreign direct investment into the region does the centre aim to attract in the coming years? Zhanbolat Kakishev: We assess Central Asia’s investment climate as resilient and gradually strengthening despite the fragmentation of global markets. Moreover, the restructuring of global supply chains and investors’ search for new sources of growth are creating additional opportunities for the region. International investor interest in Central Asia already rests on a solid foundation. According to UNCTAD, by the end of 2025, the stock of foreign direct investment in the region had reached approximately $235.5 billion, of which $156.4 billion was in Kazakhstan. The region combines a substantial resource base, a growing domestic market, and a strategic position between Europe and Asia. It also has significant investment potential in areas including transport and logistics, energy, critical minerals, digitalisation, and financial services. The AIFC does not set a target in the form of a fixed share of total FDI flowing into Central Asia. Our task today is to continue improving the AIFC ecosystem, its infrastructure, and the conditions that allow international capital to enter Kazakhstan effectively, as well as to participate in regional projects. To date, $26.3 billion in investment has been attracted to Kazakhstan through the AIFC ecosystem. More than 6,000 companies from 90 countries are registered in the Centre’s jurisdiction. For us, however, it is not only the volume of capital attracted that matters, but also its quality — long-term investment that contributes to economic diversification, private-sector development, and the further integration of Kazakhstan and Central Asia into global capital markets. TCA: Given the growing interest in the Middle Corridor, or Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, what investment instruments does the AIFC offer to finance major infrastructure and logistics projects in the region? Zhanbolat Kakishev: The AIFC provides comprehensive legal and financial infrastructure for structuring and attracting financing for major infrastructure and logistics projects, including those along the Middle Corridor. Depending on the structure of a project, special-purpose vehicles or companies (SPVs/SPCs), joint ventures, and investment funds can be used to pool capital from strategic, institutional, and private investors. Through the Astana International Exchange (AIX), projects can also raise debt and equity financing, including through conventional, green, and sustainability bonds, as well as Islamic finance instruments such as sukuk. For large infrastructure projects, the ability to combine different sources of capital is particularly important. These can include financing from international financial institutions and banks, funds from strategic...

Bilateral Cooperation

Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan Target $1 Billion in Trade as Investment and Transit Links Expand

Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan have set a target of increasing bilateral trade to $1 billion by 2030, as economic ties expand from a relatively low base into vehicle manufacturing, oil and gas, investment, and transport across the Caspian Sea. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s state visit to Uzbekistan on August 23–24 added new projects to that list. The two presidents signed a Treaty on Eternal Friendship and a program aimed at increasing bilateral trade to $1 billion by 2030. Political relations, meanwhile, have been moving faster than economic ties. In 2023, the two countries established the Supreme Interstate Council, and a year later they signed a Treaty on Allied Relations. The latest trip was Aliyev’s third state visit to Uzbekistan in five years and his seventh visit overall. Aliyev said ahead of his trip to Tashkent that bilateral trade more than tripled in 2025 to reach $795 million. Uzbekistan’s Center for Economic Research and Reforms, however, reported a much lower total of $307.3 million for the same year. Neither side has explained the discrepancy, which may reflect different definitions of trade. Sustaining growth toward the $1 billion target will require broader trade and more joint production, including goods aimed at markets beyond the two countries. From Trade to Investment The Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan Investment Company is intended to help turn some of these plans into operating businesses. Established in 2023 with $500 million in capital, the company finances projects in both countries. Some areas of cooperation have already reached the production stage. Azerbaijan’s Azermash CP works with Uzbek manufacturers to produce Chevrolet and Isuzu vehicles in Azerbaijan. By July, more than 10,700 Chevrolet vehicles and 275 Isuzu buses had been produced. More than 130 commercial entities with Uzbek investment are registered in Azerbaijan. During the latest visit, the two sides opened a gypsum plant. They also laid foundations for five SOCAR filling stations and a silver-ore enrichment plant. For Baku, the interest in Uzbekistan is understandable. With a population of more than 38 million, Uzbekistan is Central Asia’s most populous country. The Uzbek economy is growing rapidly, while the authorities are opening more sectors to private and foreign capital. For Azerbaijani companies, this offers access to a market considerably larger than their own as well as a foothold in Central Asia. For Tashkent, Azerbaijan offers investment and expertise in the oil and gas sector. SOCAR, the Azerbaijani state oil company, has been operating in Uzbekistan for years. A joint venture between Uzbekistan’s O‘ZLITINEFTGAZ and the Azerbaijani company’s research institute has been operating since 2016. Cooperation is now gradually moving from engineering services toward much larger exploration and potential production projects. The main project is on the Ustyurt Plateau in western Uzbekistan. BP joined the project in May 2026 with a 40% stake, while SOCAR, which is the operator, and Uzbekneftegaz each hold 30%. Total investment could reach around $2 billion if commercially viable reserves are found and the project proceeds to development. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the project envisages extensive seismic...