Investment - The Times Of Central Asia

Viewing results 1 - 6 of 75

Astana Finance Days 2026

Astana Finance Days: Rewiring Finance at Institutional Scale – The Case for Deeper Financial Markets

Kazakhstan needs deeper financial markets and a system less dependent on banks, senior financial officials told Astana Finance Days on September 9, 2026. Speakers at the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) explored how digital finance could support that shift during the plenary session, "Innovation at Institutional Scale: Rewiring the Architecture of Finance." The turnout was standing-room only. Over the next fifty minutes, the panelists discussed Kazakhstan’s ambitions as a financial hub and the conditions needed to advance them. Moderator Sallianne Taylor, Bloomberg's EMEA Head of Government Relations, opened by asking what is fundamentally changing in the architecture of global finance, and what it means for Kazakhstan. There were five panelists: Timur Suleimenov, Governor of the National Bank of Kazakhstan; Renat Bekturov, Governor of the AIFC; Timur Turlov, Chief Executive of Freedom Holding Corp.; Sergio Mello, Global Head of Stablecoin Solutions at Anchorage Digital; and Balaji Srinivasan, founder of Network School and bestselling author of The Network State. The Governor's Priority: Stability Before Speed Governor Suleimenov began by naming "geopolitical tension" as the backdrop to today's discussions. "This is the elephant in the room, which we cannot ignore," he said, without further comment. He then described trade and finance flows as changing fundamentally, pointing to "division across the Atlantic. We're seeing trade wars, semi-trade wars across the world." He explained that "finance has always been a partner with trade, investment and finance." That atmosphere of uncertainty "reshapes financial flows," he said. Turning to technology, he noted that "with the invention of blockchain, cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and everything in between, the traditional financial system has started to undergo very fundamental change. I think we're still in the rule-setting phase." As a result, he said, "There is no set of global rules for decentralized finance, for digital finance, crypto finance. Many countries are looking to strike the right balance between the traditional financial institutions such as banks or commodities or securities markets, and the new ways of doing finance that the market is offering." For Kazakhstan specifically, he argued the moment favors the country rather than threatens it. "I think for Kazakhstan, it's more of an opportunity," he said, pointing to its standing as the region's largest economy by GDP and GDP per capita, and its position as "the biggest financial system, the best financial system, the most capitalized" in Central Asia. That confidence carried into the moderator's next question: "As a central banker, how do you balance innovation with preserving that financial stability and trust?" Suleimenov called it "a never-ending story," then offered the line that framed the whole session: "When you see something new, and you don't have the rules for it, of course you have to evaluate it based on its merits and based on principles rather than rules, and then you come up with rules." He was candid about the risk that comes with new financial technology, but just as quick to put it in proportion. "What we've been seeing in Kazakhstan, I mean, it's 90% positive," he said, acknowledging...

Banking

Uzbekistan Pitches Decades of Tax Breaks to Financial Firms

Uzbekistan is offering qualifying financial firms nearly half a century of tax exemptions to set up in Tashkent. The goal is to attract private capital into an economy where state-owned banks still control most banking assets. On September 10, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev appointed his daughter, Saida Mirziyoyeva, to head the planned Tashkent International Financial Centre, Reuters reported. She has led the presidential administration since 2025. Mirziyoyev announced the project at June’s Tashkent International Investment Forum, promising free capital movement alongside tax incentives. Its legal framework would draw on English common law principles, as is the case with Kazakhstan’s Astana International Financial Centre. Who Gets the Tax Breaks? Under the founding law, qualifying participants would receive income and social tax exemptions on financial services income until January 1, 2076. Eligibility requires an actual economic presence in the center and compliance with its rules. The income incentives exclude members of multinational groups with annual revenues of at least €750 million in two of the preceding four fiscal years. Those firms face a domestic top-up tax. The offer is therefore less generous for large multinational groups. A global bank would need a commercial reason to enter Uzbekistan beyond the prospect of a lower tax bill. Most of the foreign businesses operating in Uzbekistan are already concentrated in Tashkent. Almost 63% of the country’s foreign-invested enterprises were based in the capital as of June 1, 2026. Financial firms entering the city would therefore have an existing customer base to pursue, although the numbers alone reveal little about demand for particular services. The domestic banking market does offer scope for competition. In its 2026 assessment, the IMF reported that nine state-owned commercial banks accounted for 63% of banking assets. It also noted delays in privatizing two large banks and urged the authorities to withdraw directed and preferential lending. The center could attract private lenders and help more Uzbek businesses obtain loans. However, simply moving existing deals there to reduce tax bills would do little to expand access to credit. Astana’s Head Start Kazakhstan has operated its financial center since 2018. Its AIFC Court sits outside the national judicial system and uses procedures based on English common law. Businesses can also agree to bring disputes there even when those disputes originate outside the center. The court works directly with Kazakhstan’s authorities to enforce its judgments, and says its first ruling resulted in full payment through private bailiffs. That gives prospective users a concrete example of how a commercial judgment can lead to the recovery of a debt. Uzbekistan’s law likewise provides for an independent commercial court and nationwide recognition of its final judgments. It requires judgments to be published within 30 days, subject to limited confidentiality protections. For lenders, that could reduce uncertainty about committing money to an unfamiliar market. Tashkent would still need to establish a record of decisions and enforcement comparable to the experience available in Astana. The law allows 12 months to adopt essential operating rules, extendable by six months. Activation then requires...

Astana Finance Days 2026

From Transit to Capital: What Investors Were Looking for in Kazakhstan at Astana Finance Days

On the second day of Astana Finance Days, Kazakhstan was trying to answer the question that follows almost every discussion about new railways, power plants, data centers, and factories: where will the money come from? International banks, asset managers, and stock exchanges gathered in Astana, and the conversation quickly reached a point – foreign capital is interested in the country, but its domestic stock market remains too small for many large investors. From Transit to Transactions The title of the first major discussion of the second day – “From Transit to Transactions” – neatly captured the idea. Kazakhstan already earns money from its position between China and Europe and is investing billions in railways, ports, and energy infrastructure. Now Astana wants financial transactions to move alongside the freight, and some of that capital to remain in the country. The Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), where the forum is being held, was created partly for that purpose. It is a separate financial jurisdiction within Kazakhstan, with its own regulator, court, and legal framework based on the principles of English common law. According to the center, by June 2026 its platform had helped attract $25.3 billion in investment to Kazakhstan, while the number of registered companies had exceeded 5,800. But the presence of international companies does not necessarily mean they are ready to invest. Jad Ellawn, Managing Partner for the Middle East at Brookfield, one of the world’s largest alternative asset managers, began with three conditions. “The fundamental principles for an investor looking to enter a country consist of three components. First is having the proper legislation. Second is respect for capital: a country needs to demonstrate that capital is important to it not only domestically, but beyond its borders. Third is scalability,” he said. “In addition to energy resources, Kazakhstan has many other natural resources, and your country is the ninth-largest country in the world. This means you have many potential industries that you could develop, unlike the Gulf.” Yilmaz Kocagoz of Goldman Sachs, one of the largest U.S. investment banks, looked at Kazakhstan through the lens of manufacturing and infrastructure. “For Kazakhstan to diversify its economy beyond commodities, it needs to develop manufacturing and infrastructure,” he said. Kocagoz also pointed to Kazakhstan’s relatively low government debt burden. For an investor, that means a smaller share of the country’s future revenues is already committed to servicing a large public debt. Nurlan Zhakupov, the CEO of Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund Samruk-Kazyna, put a price tag on the country’s investment program: more than 100 projects worth $105 billion. “We see demand from local businesses and enormous interest from foreign partners. We are also seeing growing consumption of electricity and natural gas, as well as demand for the transportation of electricity, oil, gas, and petroleum products,” Zhakupov said. He ended with an invitation: “Overall, Kazakhstan currently has a good business climate, and now is a good time to enter the Kazakh economy.” The next discussion in the same building helped explain why that does...

Astana Finance Days 2026

Astana Finance Days: From BlackRock to Mining and Data Centers

In a trading hall in Astana, BlackRock was explaining why investors have become more cautious. A few floors away, geologists were pitching 23 mining projects, while financiers debated how many megawatts the next wave of artificial intelligence will require. That was how the first day of Astana Finance Days unfolded, as Kazakhstan brought together financial groups managing more than $26 trillion in assets – and sought to show them where that money could be put to work in Central Asia. The ninth Astana Finance Days is taking place on September 9–10 at the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), Kazakhstan’s special financial jurisdiction with its own regulator and a court system based on English common law principles. According to the organizers, around 8,000 participants from 90 countries registered for the forum. Institutions represented include BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Capital Group, Brookfield, Rothschild & Co., Hong Kong Investment Corporation, and IFC Asset Management Company. The stated $26 trillion refers to the combined assets under management of participating firms worldwide – not investment pledged to Kazakhstan. More concrete signals emerged on the sidelines. Meshal Jaber AlFaras, Janus Henderson Investors’ head of the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia, said the investment group is considering direct investments in Kazakhstan and plans to expand its presence in the country. Janus Henderson manages around $500 billion in assets. AlFaras did not disclose potential projects or investment amounts. A New Price for Risk One of the first day’s most prominent discussions took place at the Astana International Exchange (AIX), the AIFC’s stock exchange. Ben Powell, Chief Investment Strategist for the Asia-Pacific region at the BlackRock Investment Institute, spoke about how geopolitics is reshaping capital flows. “Today, we are in a structurally new regime – moving into a more complicated world where geopolitical fragmentation is intensifying, alliances are breaking down, and international relationships are changing. Of course, this affects investors. They need to completely rethink their approaches to investing,” Powell said. Higher inflation and interest rates, he continued, are changing attitudes toward risk. For smaller emerging markets, that means greater scrutiny of currency stability, regulation, and liquidity. A few halls away, that global discussion was already turning into pitches for specific mineral projects. From the Geological Map to the Investor Fifteen companies brought 23 mining projects to Astana Finance Days. Most are still at the exploration stage. In the industry, such companies are known as juniors. They search for mineral deposits and try to demonstrate that the resources they discover can eventually be mined profitably. For an ordinary bank, the risk is high: a promising area on a geological map does not yet guarantee a working mine. At the forum, companies briefly pitched their projects before moving into individual negotiations. More than ten Kazakh and international investors and strategic partners attended the pitch session. The Junior Mining Platform, launched this spring, is intended to turn this search for capital into a permanent mechanism. Private investors take on early geological risk; as reserves are confirmed and technical uncertainty declines, larger...

Astana Finance Days 2026

S&P Bolsters Kazakhstan’s Standing as Central Asia’s Financial Hub

S&P Global Ratings has improved its assessment of Kazakhstan’s banking industry as Astana Finance Days opens on September 9, lowering the industry risk score for the country’s banking system from 7 to 6 and citing stronger regulation and supervision. According to Kazakhstan’s Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market, the September 4 decision improved the industry risk component of S&P’s Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment, or BICRA. S&P also changed the trend on Kazakhstan’s separate economic risk assessment from stable to positive. S&P’s BICRA framework evaluates banking systems on a scale of 1 to 10, with lower numbers indicating lower risk. Industry risk assesses factors including banking regulation and supervision, competitive dynamics, and the stability of systemwide funding. Kazakhstan’s overall BICRA grouping remains at 7, while its industry risk score improved from 7 to 6. The industry risk comparison puts the change in perspective. S&P’s published assessments place the United States at 3, Germany at 4, and Brazil at 5. Kazakhstan’s new score of 6 places it alongside banking systems including Bahrain, Oman and Thailand in recent S&P assessments. Within Central Asia, the difference is wider. S&P has assigned Kyrgyzstan an industry-risk score of 8 and Uzbekistan a score of 9. S&P does not currently publish BICRA assessments for Tajikistan or Turkmenistan. S&P also considers Kazakhstan’s banking regulation and supervision more effective than those of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, according to the Kazakh regulator. Stronger Supervision The regulator attributed S&P’s decision to regular asset-quality reviews, risk-based supervisory assessments and measures to limit excessive bank risk-taking, particularly in retail lending. It also cited tighter capital and liquidity oversight and stress testing. The change has already affected individual institutions. The regulator reported an upgrade of the Bank Center Credit’s long-term rating to BB+, while Halyk Bank’s BBB− rating received a positive outlook, indicating the possibility of a future upgrade. The banking decision follows S&P’s August 21 sovereign upgrade from BBB− to BBB with a stable outlook. Kazakhstan remains Central Asia’s only investment-grade sovereign. In an interview with TCA, National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov linked that improvement to a stronger monetary policy framework, banking resilience, and closer coordination with the government. Kazakhstan also has Central Asia’s most developed capital markets. Almaty’s banks, professional services and Kazakhstan Stock Exchange operate alongside the Astana International Financial Centre and its exchange, giving the country an established concentration of financial business. Capital on the Agenda The timing of S&P’s decision gives the assessment added relevance as Kazakhstan hosts Astana Finance Days. The forum’s announced program includes regulation, law and market confidence, capital market development, and financing for the real economy. Organizers expect more than 5,500 participants from over 80 countries, with representatives of BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and Brookfield among the confirmed speakers. In an August 27 interview with TCA, Zhanbolat Kakishev, chief product officer at the AIFC Authority, said a cumulative $26.3 billion in investment had been attracted to Kazakhstan through the center’s ecosystem, which included more than 6,000 registered companies from 90 countries....

GDP Forecast

Kazakhstan Forecasts GDP Growth Above 5% in 2027–2029

Kazakhstan’s government has approved a socioeconomic development forecast and draft republican budget for 2027–2029, projecting average annual real GDP growth above 5% as manufacturing, agriculture, construction, transport, and other non-oil sectors expand. The forecast was prepared with reference to the global economic outlook and conditions in external markets. The accompanying draft budget, approved at the same government meeting chaired by Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, will be submitted to the Kurultai for consideration. Under the government’s baseline scenario, real GDP is projected to grow by 5.3% in 2027, 5.5% in 2028, and 5.4% in 2029. Nominal GDP is expected to rise from KZT 199.3 trillion in 2027 to KZT 245 trillion in 2029, an increase of almost 23%. Non-oil sectors are expected to provide the main impetus for expansion. Manufacturing output is forecast to grow by an average of 5.9% a year, substantially faster than the 2% projected for mining. Metallurgy, mechanical engineering, construction materials, chemicals, and food production are expected to make the largest contributions. Oil exports and the broader mining sector will remain central to the economy and public finances, but the forecast assumes that manufacturing and other non-oil activities will account for a larger share of new output. TCA reported in July that Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 4.1% in the first half of 2026 despite an 8.4% decline in oil production. The non-oil economy grew by more than 5%, with manufacturing, construction, trade, and transport accounting for more than 80% of overall growth. Manufacturing output increased by 9.8%. Agriculture is expected to expand by at least 5% annually. Construction is projected to remain among the fastest-growing sectors, increasing by 16% in 2027 and 17.3% in 2029. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin said the expansion would be supported by transport and logistics, energy, and water projects, together with the modernization of housing, utilities, and social infrastructure. The services sector is also expected to maintain strong momentum. Trade is forecast to expand by an average of 5.7% annually, information and communications by 9.2%, and transport and warehousing by 10.4%. The transport forecast builds on rapid expansion along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, or Middle Corridor. Annual freight volumes through Kazakhstan have risen from 0.8 million to 4.5 million tons over seven years, while delivery times fell from approximately 28–32 days to 13–17 days. The route still carries substantially less cargo than established northern corridors, and participating countries continue to work on remaining bottlenecks. Infrastructure spending is a central element of the draft budget, but Bektenov said it must be accompanied by stronger financial discipline. Under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s instructions, accelerated construction of infrastructure and social facilities has been designated as a principal budget priority. Government bodies were told to meet the approved economic targets, while administrators of budget programs were directed to increase the return on every tenge spent. The headline budget deficit is forecast to fall from 2.3% of GDP in 2027 to just 0.4% in 2029. However, the non-oil deficit, which measures the...