Economic Reforms - The Times Of Central Asia

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Government

Kyrgyzstan Unveils Ambitious Growth Plans at People’s Kurultai

On December 20, Bishkek hosted the third People’s Kurultai (Congress), a platform for direct dialogue between representatives of local communities from across Kyrgyzstan and the country’s top leadership. The event featured opening remarks by President Sadyr Japarov and a detailed address by newly appointed Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, Adylbek Kasymaliyev, who outlined the government’s economic priorities and strategic plans for the future. Japarov set the tone for the event by sharing his vision for Kyrgyzstan’s development priorities. He announced that construction of the long-anticipated China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will commence on December 27. Kasymaliev, in his address, emphasized Kyrgyzstan’s ability to sustain economic momentum, citing the country’s 9% annual GDP growth rate over the past three years. He highlighted key initiatives aimed at transforming Kyrgyzstan’s economic landscape, including: Strategic Infrastructure Projects: Kasymaliyev underscored the significance of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which is expected to create new economic centers and logistics hubs, effectively positioning Kyrgyzstan as a "land port" in the region. Hydropower and Renewable Energy: As a reliable partner in Central Asia’s hydropower sector, Kyrgyzstan will continue collaborating with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan on the flagship Kambarata-1 hydroelectric power plant. Kasymaliyev also announced plans to expand solar and wind energy, eliminate state monopolies in the energy sector, and create conditions to attract private investment. Agriculture and Food Security: The government will prioritize agricultural processing to add value to raw products, ensuring food security and bolstering rural economic development. Construction as an Economic Driver: With construction contributing 7.4% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP - a tenfold increase since 2013 - Kasymaliyev called the industry a vital indicator of economic growth. He noted that construction has significantly improved citizens' well-being over the past three years. Government’s Strategic Goals Kasymaliyev laid out an ambitious roadmap for the Cabinet of Ministers, aiming for the following by 2030: Economic Growth: Maintaining a GDP growth rate of 9% and achieving a GDP of $30 billion. Income Growth: Raising GDP per capita from $2,500 to $4,000. Economic Transition: Shifting from a services-oriented economy to an industrial-agrarian model. Support for Small and Medium Businesses: Increasing their share in GDP from the current 40.5% to 50%. Poverty Reduction: Lowering the poverty rate to 17%. Education Expansion: Ensuring 80% of preschool-age children have access to kindergarten. Kasymaliyev’s address underscored the government’s commitment to comprehensive economic reforms and regional cooperation. His plans reflected an optimistic vision for Kyrgyzstan’s development while addressing key challenges in energy, infrastructure, and social services.

Tax

Kazakhstan’s Mining Association Proposes Reforming Mineral Extraction Tax

Aibar Dautov, head of Kazakhstan's Mining Industry Association, has called for reforms to the procedure for calculating the mineral extraction tax (MET) to boost budget revenues from oil and solid minerals. Speaking at the Astana Open Dialogue during discussions on the new tax code, Dautov noted that Kazakhstan currently employs ten different MET rates for crude oil taxation. These rates are determined based on two key factors: the price of oil at the time of sale and the annual production volume at a given field. The current tax structure is divided into the following production thresholds: 5% tax for annual production up to 250,000 tons 7% for 500,000 tons 8% for 1 million tons 9% for 2 million tons 10% for 3 million tons 11% for 4 million tons 12% for 5 million tons 13% for 7 million tons 15% for production up to 10 million tons 18% for production exceeding 10 million tons Dautov criticized this system as unfair to other sectors of the economy. “We believe the criterion of annual production volume should not exist at all. This differentiation has been in place for many years, but for some reason, it hasn’t been removed or acknowledged as a tax benefit. The Ministry of National Economy continues to support its inclusion in the new Tax Code. It’s unclear why this grading still exists—it should be eliminated and considered a relic,” Dautov stated. The complexity is even greater for solid minerals, according to Dautov, as their MET calculation currently involves 38 different tax rates for various types of minerals. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Kazakhstan's Ministry of Industry and Construction has proposed replacing the current MET system with royalties. Under this system, taxes would be calculated based on the volume of sold products rather than the volume extracted. This change is scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2026, under new subsoil use contracts, while existing contracts will remain taxed under the current rates.

Energy Security

Kyrgyzstan Faces Electricity Deficit of 3.9 Billion Kilowatt-Hours

Kyrgyzstan is grappling with an electricity deficit of 3.9 billion kilowatt-hours as authorities struggle to resolve recurring winter energy shortages despite the construction of new hydroelectric power plants and electricity imports from neighboring countries. President Sadyr Japarov addressed the issue in a recent interview with the state news agency. Japarov acknowledged that the electricity shortfall remains unresolved, attributing it to the growing demand driven by an increasing number of social and infrastructure projects. “Our electricity is cheap. At a production cost of 2.7 Kyrgyz som (KGS) [approximately $0.031] per kilowatt-hour, consumers purchase it for 1.1 KGS. Additionally, under the Family Assistance program, we supply electricity to 69,000 families at a subsidized rate of 0.5 KGS per kilowatt-hour. Moreover, 186,000 consumers in mountainous areas receive electricity at 1.1 KGS without restrictions,” Japarov explained. The president also criticized wasteful electricity consumption in both public and private sectors, citing a lack of awareness and accountability. “Employees and heads of public institutions, schools, and kindergartens irresponsibly leave lights on in workspaces, assuming the state will pay for it. Similarly, street lighting remains on unnecessarily,” Japarov said. For the past 30 years, Kyrgyz citizens have endured periodic electricity blackouts. Japarov urged them to remain patient for another three to four years, assuring that the energy deficit would be resolved with the completion of the Kambarata Hydroelectric Power Plant-1 project, which is expected to stabilize the country's power supply.

Economy

Kyrgyz Entrepreneurs Urged to Legalize Income

Kyrgyz entrepreneurs have been reminded to legalize their assets as the period for voluntary declaration of income and property nears its end on December 31, 2024. From January 2025, authorities are set to launch extensive inspections of businesses, prompting Temir Sariev, head of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI) of Kyrgyzstan, to call on business owners to act promptly. The law on voluntary legalization and amnesty of assets, introduced in 2023, offers citizens a chance to declare their assets with state guarantees of protection against criminal prosecution. By participating in the program, individuals and businesses can secure the preservation of their declared assets. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, in an effort to accelerate this process, President Sadyr Japarov set a public example in early 2024 by legalizing a multi-story building in Bishkek valued at $20 million. Temir Sariev emphasized that legalizing assets will improve economic transparency, protect citizens’ social and economic rights, and enhance Kyrgyzstan’s attractiveness to investors. “An obvious benefit of asset legalization is the reduction of the shadow economy,” Sariev noted. According to the Ministry of Economy and Commerce, the shadow economy accounted for approximately 20% of GDP in 2023, although unofficial estimates suggest it could be twice as high. International examples indicate that asset and income legalization reduces the size of the informal sector, increases transparency, fosters competition, and attracts new investments. While the potential advantages include increased tax revenues and improved public infrastructure, Sariev acknowledged the challenges for businesses transitioning out of the shadow economy. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) accustomed to operating informally may face difficulties adjusting to legal frameworks and potentially higher tax burdens. To address these challenges, Sariev highlighted the need for new accounting systems, staff training, and significant government investment in modernizing tax administration. This summer, the Kyrgyz government introduced changes to the taxation system, replacing voluntary patents - used by hundreds of thousands of businesses and individuals - with a mandatory payment system based on cash register accounting. The shift aims to increase transparency and accountability in the private sector. The Chamber of Commerce and Industry continues to encourage businesses to take advantage of the current voluntary declaration period to ensure smoother compliance with the evolving economic landscape.

Trade

Uzbekistan Aims to Join WTO by 2026

Uzbekistan is intensifying efforts to finalize its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), aiming for completion by 2026. At the ninth meeting of the Working Group on Accession, held December 5-6, a delegation led by Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjayev reaffirmed the country’s commitment to this timeline. WTO members expressed support for Uzbekistan’s high-level political engagement, and encouraged continued alignment of its trade regime with international standards. Khodjayev emphasized that WTO accession is not merely a technical procedure but a critical driver of internal reforms. “This goal demonstrates the inevitability of Uzbekistan's integration into the global trading system. In 2025, efforts will focus on completing negotiations and harmonizing legislation with WTO norms,” Khodjayev stated. The Uzbek delegation included Azizbek Urunov, the president's special representative on WTO issues, Deputy Economy Minister Ahadbek Khaidarov, and representatives from various agencies. Some officials joined the discussions virtually from Tashkent. Chief Negotiator Azizbek Urunov reported that Uzbekistan has concluded bilateral negotiations with nine additional WTO members, bringing the total to 22. This milestone underscores significant progress in the accession process. WTO Deputy Director General Xiangchen Zhang commended Uzbekistan for its ambitious reforms, including Presidential Decree DP-85, which aims to align national legislation with WTO norms. These efforts align with President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s strategy to accelerate economic modernization. Chairman of the Working Group, Ambassador Yoon Seong-Dok of South Korea, also noted substantial progress at both bilateral and multilateral levels. He highlighted Uzbekistan’s productive cooperation with international organizations such as the IMF, World Bank, and WTO. The Working Group reviewed Uzbekistan’s draft report outlining commitments as a prospective WTO member and examined recent legislative changes. Since May 2024, Uzbekistan has enacted 192 legal acts to comply with WTO standards. Ambassador Yoon stressed the importance of sustained efforts in 2025 to meet the next milestones. “The coming seven to eight months will be crucial to achieve the goal of completing the process by 2026,” he said. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Uzbekistan has secured China's agreement for its WTO accession. Joining the organization is a cornerstone of Uzbekistan’s broader economic reforms aimed at integrating the nation into the global trading system.

Economy

EDB Thinks Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan Will Show Strongest Growth in 2025

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecasts that Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will lead regional economic growth in 2025. According to the bank’s Macroeconomic Forecast, published on November 5, GDP growth rates for Kyrgyzstan are given at 8.7%, Tajikistan at 8.4%, and Kazakhstan at 5.5%. For comparison, the corresponding figure for Russia is just 2.4%. Tajikistan’s robust growth is attributed to rising prices for gold and other export metals, coupled with reduced costs for imported energy and food products. These factors are expected to enhance economic efficiency by freeing up funds for consumption and investment. Additionally, the country’s rapidly growing population remains a central driver of its economic expansion. Similarly, Kyrgyzstan’s strong economic performance will be fueled by industrial development, high investment activity, and resilient domestic demand. However, in both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, industrial growth and investment activity are anticipated to lag behind GDP expansion. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are expected to grow above the global average, supported by steady exports and robust domestic demand. Kazakhstan’s economy will benefit from increased oil production, large-scale government infrastructure projects, and supportive fiscal policies. The EDB predicts that inflation across the region will gradually decline, from 7.9% in 2024 to 6.4% in 2025. High interest rates will remain a key tool in controlling inflation, with rates expected at 7.3% in Kazakhstan by the end of 2025. Inflation in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is projected to remain within target levels, reaching 5.0% and 5.8%, respectively. These lower inflation rates are expected to support continued economic stability in both countries.