Emomali Rahmon - The Times Of Central Asia

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Opposition

Tajikistan’s Islamic Opposition Changes Leader After 20 Years

The Islamic Renaissance of Tajikistan (formerly the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan) has elected a new chairman after longtime leader Muhiddin Kabiri decided to step down. The IRP has been one of the most influential groups in Tajikistan since the country became independent in late 1991. The organization subsequently became the principal target of a sustained government crackdown, which culminated in its activities being banned in Tajikistan and pressure being applied to members who fled the country. The New Leader Members of the IRP’s Supreme Presidium met in Vilnius, Lithuania, on September 19 to choose from three candidates: Abubakr Nuri, Abdukodir Shehov, and Islomiddin Saidov. Sixty-four percent of members voted for Saidov, the group's first deputy chairman. In late August 2026, the IRPT changed its name to simply the Islamic Renaissance of Tajikistan. Saidov, who made that announcement, explained to the Tajik opposition’s Azda TV that the removal of the word “Party” and the change of the organization’s symbols were part of internal reforms. The leadership change appears to be another part of those reforms, although Kabiri said he had wanted to step down as the group’s leader for some time. Edward Lemon, president of the Washington-based Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, has followed events in Tajikistan for some two decades. He has lived in the country and speaks Tajik. He met Saidov and describes him as a moderate, much like Kabiri. Saidov is from Nurobod in the Rasht Valley, and, according to Lemon, is a cleric “who takes a firm stance on issues of authoritarianism and Islamic rights.” Saidov takes over Tajikistan’s largest opposition group, but one that has been embattled for years and forced to conduct its work far from the borders of Tajikistan. There Since the Start The Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) was formed in the final years when Tajikistan was a Soviet republic, after Mihail Gorbachev’s perestroika policy was implemented. Following independence in 1991, the IRPT spearheaded the opposition to the government that eventually took over and was led by Rahmon Nabiyev, a former leader of the Tajik Soviet Socialist Republic who was ousted in Gorbachev’s anti-corruption campaign in the mid-1980s. When civil war broke out in the spring of 1992, the IRPT joined forces with the Democratic Party of Tajikistan and the Pamiri organization La’li Badakhshan to fight government forces. The IRPT was the backbone of this unlikely alliance. When the Tajik Peace Accord ended the war in June 1997, then-IRPT leader Said Abdullo Nuri signed on behalf of the opposition. The peace deal legalized all three opposition groups, making the IRPT the first, and to date only, Islamic party to be registered in any Central Asian country since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The agreement also stipulated that the opposition would receive 30% of positions in the government, from local to ministerial posts. Marginalized and Ousted The arrangement lasted only a few years before Emomali Rahmon, who had come to power during the civil war, gradually began removing former opposition...

Mongolia-Central Asia Relations

Tajikistan’s President Rahmon Visits Mongolia as Ulaanbaatar Expands Central Asia Outreach

Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon is visiting Mongolia for the first time since 2009, as the two countries pursue closer ties and Mongolia expands its engagement with Central Asia. An honor guard welcomed Rahmon on his arrival in the Mongolian capital of Ulaanbaatar on Monday, and the Tajik leader later met President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh, Tajikistan’s presidential office said. The two presidents aim to expand cooperation in politics, trade, the economy, agriculture, energy, transport, and culture, and will also discuss regional and international issues, according to Montsame, Mongolia’s state-owned news agency. “The visit will mark the first state visit by Tajikistan’s president to Mongolia in 17 years, following his previous visit in 2009,” Montsame reported. “It also serves as a reciprocal visit following President Khurelsukh's state visit to Tajikistan in 2025.” While trade between Mongolia and Tajikistan is relatively small, the warming ties are part of a wider Mongolian government policy to engage with Central Asia and diversify its economic partners. Coal, copper and other mining products are a big part of the economy of landlocked Mongolia, whose exports primarily go to China. Russia is to the north of Mongolia, and China is to the south, while Mongolia’s western tip is separated from Kazakhstan by a sliver of Chinese territory. “Northeast Asia remains Mongolia’s primary economic anchor in terms of exports, investment, and access to seaports,” Khaliunaa Batjargal wrote in a Think Mongol Institute analysis. “At the same time, Central Asia offers a different set of strategic opportunities. Cooperation with similarly landlocked, resource-based economies creates space for new market access and alternative transport options.” The analysis was published in April, shortly after a visit by the Mongolian leader to Kazakhstan, where he met President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Deals and high-level visits have also occurred in recent years between Mongolia and other Central Asian countries, including Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Mongolia, a former Soviet satellite state with a population of several million, sought to build relationships with Central Asian countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, but that effort stagnated in the 2000s as opportunities for Mongolia increased in East Asia while Russia maintained a close relationship with the former Soviet republics, according to a Jamestown Foundation analysis by Nurbek Bekmurzaev in 2024. Now, as Central Asian countries expand their own trading partners and corridors, Mongolia is seeking to explore the potential of the region as a transit hub. Many analysts view an old debate about whether Mongolia is part of Central Asia or Northeast Asia as more academic than practical.

Electricity Shortages

Tajikistan Prepares for Another Winter Power Shortfall

Tajikistan is preparing for another autumn and winter in which electricity demand may outstrip supply. Network losses have fallen, and investment in hydropower continues, but officials say the seasonal imbalance between generation and consumption will persist. Mahmadumar Asozoda, chairman of state-owned power company Barki Tojik, said the imbalance would persist through the colder months. Asked whether electricity rationing would return, he did not rule it out. Tajikistan generates almost all of its electricity from hydropower, leaving supply tied to seasonal river flows. Output rises during the warmer months, when the country can meet domestic demand and export surplus electricity. In winter, river flows decline as electricity use increases for heating, creating a recurring shortfall. To cover part of the winter shortfall, Tajikistan plans to import electricity from Uzbekistan again. The two countries use a seasonal exchange: Uzbekistan supplies power in autumn and winter, and Tajikistan returns an equivalent volume during summer. Tajikistan imported 306 million kilowatt-hours (kWh) last winter, down from 350 million kWh a year earlier. Asozoda said the countries expect to sign a new agreement before the next autumn-winter season. Imports can ease the shortage, but they do not remove Tajikistan's dependence on hydropower or the winter drop in output. The seasonal arrangement with Uzbekistan gives Tajikistan access to power when domestic generation is lowest. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan has signed a 20-year agreement to buy electricity from Tajikistan. Deliveries are expected to depend on additional generating capacity at the Rogun Hydropower Plant. The Nurek Reservoir stood at 888.21 meters on July 13, but Energy and Water Resources Minister Daler Juma said Tajikistan was experiencing low water levels. The country has reduced electricity exports and is retaining more water in its reservoirs for winter. Losses in the electricity system fell during the first half of 2026. At Barki Tojik's generating facilities, losses were 0.32% of output, down 0.07 percentage points from a year earlier. Losses in high-voltage transmission networks fell to 2.96%, while distribution losses dropped from 17.93% to 12.42%. Barki Tojik generated 8.89 billion kWh during the period, 2.7 million kWh less than in the first half of 2025. Hydropower plants supplied 7.93 billion kWh, while thermal plants produced 964 million kWh. The utility also bought 2.7 billion kWh from independent producers in Tajikistan and abroad, with Sangtuda-1 supplying 1.48 billion kWh. Rogun and Sangtuda-2 supplied 667.2 million kWh and 474.2 million kWh, respectively. Demand continues to rise as Tajikistan's population grows and industrial production expands, President Emomali Rahmon said in December 2025. The World Bank expects Rogun to help meet domestic needs and reduce recurring winter cuts. Rahmon has said rationing should end in 2027, when the third generating unit is scheduled to enter service, although the World Bank projects full completion in 2033. For the coming winter, Tajikistan is conserving reservoir water and arranging imports from Uzbekistan, but Asozoda's comments leave open the possibility of renewed rationing.

Border Demarcation

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Begin Installing Border Pillars After Completing Border Delimitation

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have begun installing border pillars along their shared frontier, marking the start of the final stage in implementing the landmark border agreement that ended one of Central Asia’s longest-running territorial disputes. On July 14, representatives of the two countries installed the first four border pillars on the section beginning at the tri-junction where the borders of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan meet. The Kyrgyz-Tajik border stretches 1,008.14 kilometers, while the total perimeter of neutral territory amounts to 14.07 kilometers. The installation of border markers follows the completion of the border delimitation process, which began in December 2002 and is widely regarded as a historic breakthrough in relations between the two neighboring countries. On March 13, 2025, in Bishkek, Presidents Sadyr Japarov of Kyrgyzstan and Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan signed the Treaty on the Kyrgyz-Tajik State Border, establishing the legal framework for long-term stability, confidence-building, and sustainable development in border regions. The joint Kyrgyz-Tajik demarcation commission has since carried out field surveys covering approximately 416 kilometers of the border between Kyrgyzstan’s Batken Region and Tajikistan’s Sughd Region. It has identified locations for 1,627 border signs, comprising 1,954 border pillars. Both governments describe the completion of legal border formalization and physical demarcation as a key step toward improving regional security, promoting socioeconomic development in border areas, expanding bilateral cooperation, and deepening relations between the two countries. For decades, the Kyrgyz-Tajik border was one of the most volatile in Central Asia. Disputes rooted in conflicting Soviet-era maps, competition over water resources and pastureland, and the complex geography of enclaves such as Vorukh repeatedly triggered clashes between local communities and security forces. The most serious confrontations occurred in April 2021 and September 2022, when fighting involving heavy artillery and armed drones resulted in military and civilian casualties and forced thousands of residents to flee their homes. The border settlement forms part of efforts by Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan to resolve territorial disputes inherited after the collapse of the Soviet Union. At a summit in Khujand on March 31, 2025, Presidents Japarov, Rahmon, and Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed an agreement defining the junction point of the three countries’ state borders, formally ending decades of territorial disagreements. The three leaders also inaugurated the Friendship Stele, erected at the point where the three national borders meet as a symbol of reconciliation and a new phase of regional cooperation. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan has also proposed establishing the Dostuk, or Friendship, International Trade and Economic Park jointly with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in the tri-border area. The initiative is expected to boost cross-border trade, attract investment, and create new economic opportunities throughout the Ferghana Valley.

Water Supply

Tajikistan Announces Water Infrastructure Drive, Urges Central Asia Cooperation

Tajikistan plans to provide at least 90% of its population with access to a centralized water supply by 2040, in a long-term infrastructure project that would reduce disparities in water services for urban and rural residents. President Emomali Rahmon spoke about Tajikistan’s water goals as well as wider collaboration in Central Asia during a speech at a Dushanbe conference that has drawn delegates from around the world for discussions on water scarcity. Tajikistan and the United Nations are co-hosting the four-day event, which ends on Thursday and is a prelude to a U.N. water conference in the United Arab Emirates in December. In 2023, the World Bank noted that Tajikistan has significant water resources, but said its infrastructure needed large-scale investment and about 55% of its population had access to “safely managed” water supplies. Only 24% of the Central Asian country’s rural population had piped water services, reflecting the big difference between urban and rural areas, according to the World Bank. It also said Tajikistan allocated a far smaller percentage of its annual budget to water supply and sanitation than in other countries in Europe and Central Asia. In his speech on Tuesday, Rahmon said “we are committed to ensuring access” to centralized water supply — a system that can promote quality of service quality and lower costs — for 90% of people in Tajikistan by 2040. “Through this measure, we are determined to guarantee access to clean drinking water for every citizen,” said the president, who has led the country for more than three decades. Tajikistan has more than 10 million people. Rahmon also described “transboundary cooperation in the water sector” as a priority and said Tajikistan will push for more dialogue in Central Asia on addressing critical water challenges. The International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea is an effective platform for promoting the “sustainable development” of water resources, according to the president. Other leaders in Central Asia have made similar comments about the fund, a collective effort to address the ecological disaster that followed the collapse of what was once one of the largest lakes in the world. The Aral Sea started shrinking decades ago after Soviet engineers diverted rivers for irrigation. Regional cooperation on water management has gained momentum in recent years, though some officials and analysts are still concerned that water shortages could stir tension between upstream and downstream countries in Central Asia.

Border disputes

UN General Assembly Adopts Kyrgyzstan-Led Resolution on Border Disputes

On May 20, the United Nations General Assembly adopted by consensus a Kyrgyzstan-backed resolution titled “Peaceful Settlement of Border Disputes,” Kyrgyzstan’s Foreign Ministry announced. More than 40 countries co-sponsored the document. The resolution was presented by Kyrgyzstan jointly with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. According to the ministry, the main purpose of the resolution is to share with the international community the historic achievement of the three Central Asian countries in resolving border disputes through peaceful means, including dialogue and negotiations, in accordance with the UN Charter and international law. The resolution proposes what Kyrgyz officials described as a simple and universal principle: when states face border disputes, the way forward should be peaceful, lawful, and based on dialogue. According to the ministry, the Central Asian achievements highlighted in the resolution offer the international community an example of good-neighborly relations and peaceful dispute resolution. The adoption of the resolution is another confirmation of the ability of Kyrgyzstan and its neighbors to peacefully resolve complex issues that had remained unsettled for decades, the ministry stated. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan have recently resolved long-standing border delimitation disputes in the Ferghana Valley inherited after the collapse of the Soviet Union. During a summit in Khujand, northern Tajikistan, on March 31, 2025, Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov, Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon, and Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a historic agreement on the junction point of the three countries’ state borders, effectively ending decades-long territorial disputes. The three leaders also inaugurated the Friendship Stele, marking the exact point where the borders of the three countries meet. The monument symbolizes friendship among the three nations, the resolution of long-standing border issues, and a new stage of regional cooperation. The Times of Central Asia previously reported on Kyrgyzstan’s initiative to establish the Dostuk (Friendship) International Trade and Economic Park jointly with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in the border area where the three countries meet. The proposed project is expected to increase cross-border trade, attract investment, and create new economic opportunities across the region.