Eurasian Development Bank - The Times Of Central Asia

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Economic Growth

Central Asia Growth Forecasts Remain Strong in Latest ADB Outlook

Four of Central Asia’s five economies are expected to grow faster in 2026 than developing Asia and the Pacific as a whole, according to the Asian Development Bank’s September Asian Development Outlook. ADB forecasts growth of 5% across developing Asia and the Pacific this year, compared with 8.9% in Kyrgyzstan, 7% in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, and 6.3% in Turkmenistan. Kazakhstan is the exception, with growth forecast at 4.8%. Kyrgyzstan is growing faster than its neighbors but is also facing the highest inflation among the five countries. ADB forecasts inflation at 11.2% this year and 8.5% next year. Growth continues to be supported by domestic demand and sustained investment, while ADB says import dependence and electricity-generation shortfalls are contributing to inflationary pressures. For Uzbekistan, ADB forecasts gross domestic product growth of 7% and inflation of 6.7% in 2026. In 2027, the figures are expected to be 6.8% and 5%, respectively. Stronger-than-expected economic activity prompted ADB to upgrade Uzbekistan’s 2026 growth forecast in its September outlook. Tajikistan is also forecast to grow by 7% in 2026, with inflation at 4.5%. Growth is expected to slow to 6.8% in 2027, while inflation is forecast to edge up to 4.7%. ADB lowered its 2026 growth projection in September, saying the escalation of Russia’s war in Ukraine had disrupted fuel imports and constrained near-term economic activity. Kazakhstan, the region’s largest economy, is growing more slowly than its neighbors. ADB expects growth of 4.8% this year and 4.5% next year, with inflation forecast at 10.4% and 9.5%, respectively. The bank left its growth and inflation forecasts unchanged from its previous outlook, with inflation expected to ease only gradually. For Turkmenistan, ADB forecasts growth of 6.3% in 2026 and 6.2% in 2027, with inflation at 6% in both years. The country’s economic indicators remain more difficult to compare with those of its neighbors because of limited access to reliable and detailed economic data. Its economy also remains heavily dependent on natural gas exports, with China its main gas market. Central Asia’s growth figures look strong against the Asian backdrop, but ADB is warning of energy and climate risks across developing Asia and the Pacific. Prolonged disruption to global energy markets could keep oil and gas prices elevated and volatile. For energy importers, that means higher fuel costs and additional inflationary pressure, while hydrocarbon exporters may benefit from higher prices but remain vulnerable to disruption in production and export routes. Another risk is a very strong El Niño, which ADB expects to persist through the first quarter of 2027. Extreme weather could reduce agricultural production and push up food prices, while a decline in hydropower generation could increase demand for other energy sources. For Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where hydropower supplies most electricity, weather and water availability add another layer of vulnerability. The differences between forecasts for the region remain substantial. In August, The Times of Central Asia compared projections from international financial institutions. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecast 2026 growth of 10.2% for Kyrgyzstan, 8.3% for Tajikistan,...

Intra-regional trade

Central Asia Trade Rises 25% as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Dominate

Central Asian countries are trading more actively with one another, although the regional market continues to be dominated by its two largest economies, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. In January-July 2026, the five countries exported $8.1 billion worth of goods to their neighbors, up 25.4% from a year earlier. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan accounted for more than 80% of those shipments. Smaller bilateral routes have expanded as well. Uzbekistan’s trade with Kyrgyzstan increased by more than half, while trade with Tajikistan rose by 45%. Trade between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rose by a factor of 3.3 after several years of border closure and sharply reduced economic ties. In absolute terms, trade between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan remains the region’s largest bilateral flow. The figures were published by Uzbekistan’s Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR). Kazakhstan remains the region’s largest exporter. Over the seven-month period, it shipped $4.5 billion worth of goods to its neighbors, accounting for 55.9% of total intra-regional exports. Uzbekistan exported $2 billion, representing another 24.7%. Kazakhstan’s Central Asian neighbors still account for a relatively small share of the country’s overall foreign trade. In January-July, its total foreign trade turnover amounted to $87.75 billion. Central Asia accounted for around 6.7% of Kazakhstan’s total trade and 8.9% of its exports. By contrast, Kyrgyzstan’s trade volumes are much smaller, but neighboring markets are considerably more important to the country’s exporters, absorbing almost one-third of its exports. During the same period, Kyrgyzstan exported $523 million worth of goods to its neighbors and imported nearly $1.5 billion. Tajikistan buys considerably more from its neighbors than it sells to them. Its imports from Central Asia increased by 35% to $1.2 billion, while exports rose 6.2% to $209 million. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan account for around 94% of Tajikistan’s trade with the region. Figures reported by Turkmenistan’s trading partners show that the country exported $844 million worth of goods to neighboring countries. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan remain its main regional markets. The Eurasian Development Bank estimated that trade among Central Asian countries reached $12.3 billion in 2025, nearly double the 2020 level. Kazakhstan accounted for 54% of regional exports, as The Times of Central Asia previously reported. New transport and energy links are developing alongside intra-regional trade. In February, the World Bank approved an $846 million guarantee to mobilize $1.41 billion in commercial financing for a railway project in Kazakhstan. The project includes construction of the 201-mile Mointy-Kyzylzhar railway line on Kazakhstan’s section of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, or Middle Corridor. The new line is expected to shorten the route by 149 kilometers and relieve congestion on heavily used sections of the corridor. Central Asian countries are seeking closer integration of their power systems. In January, the World Bank approved the 10-year Regional Electricity Market Interconnectivity and Trade Program, with indicative financing of more than $1 billion, to establish Central Asia’s first regional electricity market. Cross-border electricity trade currently amounts to only around 3% of the region’s total electricity demand. In an earlier CERR analysis, researcher Ruslan Abaturov argued...

Foreign Investment

Foreign Investment in Uzbekistan Gains Strong Momentum

Foreign direct investment remains one of Uzbekistan’s key tools for supporting sustainable economic growth. The country is expanding capital inflows to finance large-scale projects in the power sector, industry, and infrastructure. According to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), accumulated investment in Uzbekistan from countries in the Eurasian region, China, the Gulf states, and Turkey reached $32.9 billion in 2025, 2.6 times the 2020 level. Over the five-year period, the total rose by more than $20 billion, making Uzbekistan one of the most active investment destinations in Eurasia. China remains the largest investor in Uzbekistan’s economy, with accumulated investment reaching $10.7 billion, more than five times the level recorded five years earlier. More than half of Chinese investment was directed into the power sector, mainly solar and wind energy projects. More than $3.3 billion went into industrial projects, including petrochemicals, automotive manufacturing, and construction materials production. The Gulf states recorded the fastest investment growth in Uzbekistan. Over five years, investment volumes rose nearly 19 times to $8.3 billion. Around 90% of these funds are concentrated in power generation and renewable energy projects. The largest investors include ACWA Power, with projects worth $4 billion, as well as Masdar and the Uzbek-Oman Investment Company. Turkey increased its investment in Uzbekistan 5.5 times to $3.1 billion, mainly in the power and manufacturing sectors. Among the leading Turkish investors is Aksa Energy, which is building thermal power plants across several regions of the country. Other Turkish firms are involved in beverage production, construction materials, and cement manufacturing. Thirteen countries in the Eurasian region, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, Georgia, Mongolia, and Ukraine, invested $10.8 billion in Uzbekistan, primarily in oil, gas, and petrochemicals. Russia remains the largest source of investment among these countries. Kazakhstan’s role has also expanded, with its investment in Uzbekistan rising more than 11 times to nearly $700 million. Speaking at the 5th Tashkent International Investment Forum on June 17, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said the country had attracted more than $150 billion in foreign investment over recent years, including $123 billion over the past five years. According to Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Investment, Industry and Trade, the total volume of investments implemented in the country in 2025 reached $43.1 billion, up 24% from the previous year. The ministry said foreign direct investment accounted for $38.2 billion, while funding from international financial institutions totaled $4.9 billion. In its macroeconomic outlook for 2026-2028, the EDB forecasts that Uzbekistan’s economy will grow by around 6.8% in 2026, supported by strong investment activity and favorable gold prices. Inflation is expected to continue declining toward the Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s target and may slow to 6.7% by the end of 2026. The EDB also said the national currency would be supported by high remittance levels and growth in metal exports.

Renewable energy

Central Asia’s Renewable Energy Boom Faces Growing Grid Challenges

Central Asia is rapidly expanding its renewable energy sector, with solar power emerging as one of the key drivers of the region’s energy transition. However, a new report by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) warns that accelerated deployment of renewable energy, without matching investment in grid infrastructure, reserve capacity, storage systems, and market reforms, could increase systemic risks and raise overall electricity costs. The warning comes as electricity demand across Central Asia continues to grow steadily. The region’s population now exceeds 80 million, and power consumption is rising by 3% to 6% annually. According to the EDB, electricity demand could increase by nearly 40% by 2030, reaching 370 billion kilowatt-hours annually, up from approximately 270 billion kilowatt-hours today. Governments across the region have announced ambitious renewable energy targets for the coming decade. Uzbekistan plans to install more than 25 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030, including solar and wind generation. Kazakhstan aims to commission 8.4 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2035, while Kyrgyzstan plans to add 3.65 gigawatts of solar capacity and 400 megawatts of wind power over the same period. Tajikistan is targeting 2 gigawatts of solar and wind generation by 2030, while Turkmenistan has announced plans for 300 megawatts of solar power capacity. Yet the region’s transition toward cleaner energy sources presents a growing challenge: electricity demand is increasing faster than power systems are adapting to accommodate large volumes of variable renewable generation. Solar energy production peaks during daylight hours, creating fluctuations that conventional power systems must manage. In the morning, before solar panels begin generating at full capacity, electricity demand is largely met by hydropower plants and thermal generation fueled by coal or natural gas. As solar output rises during the day, conventional plants must reduce generation or temporarily shut down. After sunset, when electricity consumption remains high but solar production falls to zero, conventional generators must rapidly increase output to stabilize the system. These abrupt shifts create operational challenges and increase costs for grid operators. According to the EDB’s report, Power Sector of Central Asia: Modernization and Energy Transition, the main obstacles to integrating renewable energy are technical and institutional, not simply financial. If sudden drops in solar or wind generation caused by weather changes are not immediately offset, power systems risk instability and, in extreme cases, blackouts. As renewable capacity expands, grids require more flexible generation, larger reserve margins, energy storage systems, and more sophisticated operational management tools. The report notes that renewable generation is being introduced faster than supporting infrastructure can be developed. In many countries, transmission networks were not designed to accommodate a high share of variable energy sources. Weather forecasting systems also remain insufficiently accurate to support reliable real-time balancing of renewable output. Market reforms have lagged as well. Capacity markets, reserve markets, and tariff systems in several Central Asian countries have yet to evolve in ways that encourage investment in flexible backup generation and storage technologies. As a result, the report argues, the real system-wide cost of renewable energy may...

Eurasian Development Bank

EDB Begins Pre-Feasibility Study for Hydropower Plant Cascade in Kyrgyzstan

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Economy and Commerce have signed a technical assistance agreement to initiate a pre-feasibility study for the Hydropower Plant (HPP) Cascade Project. The announcement was made on March 26 and marks a significant step forward in the development of one of Kyrgyzstan’s most ambitious energy infrastructure projects. This agreement builds on the existing partnership between the EDB and the Ministry, established under a Memorandum of Cooperation signed in December 2024. Scope of the Study Under the agreement, the EDB will finance the pre-feasibility study, which will include: Estimating preliminary capital expenditures Developing key technical solutions Assessing environmental and social impacts Outlining state support measures needed for project implementation The study will be carried out in collaboration with the Ministry and a designated consulting firm. Strategic Importance of the Suusamyr-Kokomeren Cascade The planned hydropower cascade will be situated on the Kokomeren River and consist of three power plants with a combined installed capacity of 1,305 MW. The project is expected to significantly enhance Kyrgyzstan’s electricity generation capacity, help meet growing domestic energy demands, and contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Hydropower is a cornerstone of Kyrgyzstan’s renewable energy strategy, and the Suusamyr-Kokomeren project is envisioned as a key driver of energy security and regional development. Regional and International Cooperation The EDB is a multilateral development institution comprising six member states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. It finances regional development projects that foster economic integration across Eurasia. It is worth noting that in early 2024, Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Energy signed memorandums of understanding with China National Electric Engineering Co. Ltd. These agreements include cooperation on the construction of both the Suusamyr-Kokomeren HPP Cascade and the Kara-Kechin thermal power plant. Together, these initiatives underscore Kyrgyzstan’s strategic push to diversify its energy portfolio and strengthen infrastructure through international partnerships and sustainable energy investments.