Gasoline Prices - The Times Of Central Asia

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Gasoline Prices Rise in Kyrgyzstan Amid Heavy Dependence on Russian Imports

Gasoline prices in Kyrgyzstan have continued to rise in recent months, despite official assurances that fuel reserves remain sufficient. The Kyrgyz Ministry of Energy reports that domestic supplies and ongoing fuel imports from Russia are currently adequate to meet national demand. According to the ministry, Kyrgyzstan consumes approximately 1.6 million tons of fuel annually, with over 90 percent of its gasoline imported from Russia. Each year, export volumes are negotiated between Moscow and Kyrgyz oil traders. When those volumes are exhausted, prices typically begin to increase. “The agreed volumes for 2025 have not yet been fully met, but oil products are being supplied as usual and without interruption. At the same time, work is underway to agree on new volumes for 2026,” the ministry stated. Officials attribute the recent price hikes to global market trends and disruptions in Russian refinery operations. Several refineries have undergone scheduled maintenance, while others were forced to halt operations following drone attacks linked to the conflict in Ukraine. Despite a recently announced gasoline export ban by Russian authorities, the restriction does not apply to countries within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), including Kyrgyzstan. Industry Concerns About Future Supply Kanat Eshatov, head of the Kyrgyz Oil Traders Association, told The Times of Central Asia that local traders remain cautious, anticipating further price increases by the end of September. “The first half of the year was fairly calm on the fuel market, with only a slight increase in prices. But in June and July, prices rose sharply due to scheduled repairs at refineries in Russia. A total of 20 plants were shut down for repairs. Five of them underwent unscheduled repairs due to attacks by Ukrainian drones. Some Russian regions are experiencing a shortage of fuel. The Russian government is now redistributing its reserves,” Eshatov said. The association is concerned about Kyrgyzstan’s limited fuel buffer. Major oil companies in the country reportedly hold only two months’ worth of gasoline reserves. Any significant supply interruption from Russia could quickly lead to a national shortage. Comparative Prices in the Region Eshatov noted that, due to Kyrgyzstan’s exemption from export duties on Russian gasoline, fuel prices remain lower than in neighboring countries. For example, in Tajikistan, gasoline prices have increased by $0.27 per liter this year, and diesel by $0.22. In Uzbekistan, gasoline is up by $0.26 per liter and diesel by $0.11. To ensure continued supply stability, Kyrgyz oil traders are also exploring alternative import routes and are currently in negotiations with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.

Fuel Exports

Central Asia Grapples with Fuel Shortages Amid Market Volatility

The heavy reliance on fuel imports from Russia is placing Central Asian countries in an increasingly precarious position. Disparities in pricing and exchange rates are driving a surge in illicit fuel resales, exacerbating supply challenges across the region. Gasoline and diesel prices continue to climb, and shortages are being felt widely. This dependence on Russian supplies is particularly concerning following U.S. President Donald Trump's ultimatum to Moscow: end the war in Ukraine within ten days or face 100% tariffs on countries trading oil and petroleum products with Russia. The tariffs could take effect as early as next week, placing Central Asian states in a hugely vulnerable position. Kazakhstan: Shortages and Shadow Exports In early July, motorists across Kazakhstan reported widespread shortages of AI-95 gasoline, particularly along the Karaganda-Balkhash and Astana-Pavlodar highways and in the country’s western regions. Some filling stations restricted purchases of AI-95 to 30 liters per vehicle, and AI-98 was only available via coupons. The Ministry of Energy attributed the shortages to increased tourist and transit traffic. Price caps on gasoline were lifted in January 2025, after which they began to steadily rise. According to the Ministry of Energy, fuel in Kazakhstan remains significantly cheaper than in other Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member states, prompting the government to gradually align prices with the regional market. Forecasts suggest gasoline prices could rise by up to 50%, further fueling inflation and impacting all sectors of the economy. The government argues that maintaining artificially low fuel prices would require substantial budget subsidies. The resulting price differentials have made illegal fuel exports more profitable, aggravating domestic shortages. To combat speculation, Kazakhstan imposed a ban in January on exporting gasoline and diesel by road and rail. Despite the country’s ongoing efforts to expand domestic production, Kazakhstan is expected to import substantial volumes from Russia in 2025: 285,000 tons of motor gasoline, 300,000 tons of jet fuel, 450,000 tons of diesel, and 500,000 tons of bitumen. Experts caution that significant increases in domestic output may not materialize until 2030. Russia’s decision on July 28 to tighten its gasoline export ban to include large producers is further complicating the situation. The embargo, introduced amid record-high exchange prices, is expected to last through August. Nevertheless, Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov insists the Russian export restrictions will not affect Kazakhstan, citing a standing intergovernmental agreement that exempts the country from such measures. The Rise of Grey Market Schemes Despite official reassurances, fuel prices continue to rise. Energy expert Olzhas Baidildinov warns of a growing shadow market, driven in part by the weakening of the Kazakh tenge against the Russian ruble. With the exchange rate at 6.6 tenge per ruble, the economic incentive for illicit exports from Kazakhstan remains strong. Baidildinov predicts further shortages by the autumn if this trend continues. Kyrgyzstan: Growing Dependence Kyrgyzstan, which has faced repeated fuel shortages in recent years, has seen prices rise sharply. Over the past decade, the cost of AI-92 has climbed by 52%, AI-95 by 57%, and diesel, used in agriculture...

Energy

Kazakhstan Second Only to Russia in CIS for Gasoline Purchasing Power

Kazakhstan ranks 36th out of 124 countries in a global gasoline affordability index based on average monthly earnings, according to recent data from Numbeo and analysis by Energyprom.kz. The study assesses how many liters of gasoline a person can buy with an average monthly salary and compares this indicator across the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and globally. Kazakhstan Among CIS Leaders in Fuel Affordability According to the report, the average Kazakhstani can purchase approximately 1,100 liters of gasoline per month based on their salary. This places Kazakhstan second among CIS countries, trailing only Russia, where the average salary covers about 1,140 liters, ranking 34th worldwide. Belarus follows with 801.3 liters, then Azerbaijan (677.9 liters), Kyrgyzstan (483.9 liters), Moldova (476.6 liters), Uzbekistan (461.3 liters), Armenia (450.3 liters), Ukraine (341.4 liters), and Tajikistan (223.8 liters). Globally, Libya leads with a staggering 10,100 liters, followed by Kuwait (8,900 liters) and Qatar (6,600 liters). In contrast, Syria ranks last, where the average salary can buy just 22.1 liters. Cuba (28.5 liters) and Côte d'Ivoire (112.3 liters) also rank among the lowest. Global Gasoline Prices: Kazakhstan Remains Among the Most Affordable Kazakhstan is also one of the countries with the lowest fuel prices, around $0.50 per liter. Cheaper fuel is found in Libya ($0.03), Egypt and Algeria ($0.30), Kuwait ($0.40), and Malaysia ($0.50). By comparison, the most expensive gasoline is in Hong Kong at $3.10 per liter, followed by Iceland ($2.40), and Singapore, the Netherlands, and Switzerland (all around $2.20). Price Trends in Kazakhstan In April 2025, gasoline prices in Kazakhstan rose by 0.4% compared to the previous month and by 2.2% year-on-year. Prices for premium grades, AI-95/96 and AI-98, increased by 0.1% month-over-month, while AI-92 rose by 0.4%. On an annual basis, AI-92 increased by 1.8%, AI-98 by 3.2%, and AI-95/96 by 4.3%. The Zhambyl region saw the highest monthly increase at 1%, followed by the Abai and Turkestan regions and Shymkent (all at 0.8%). North Kazakhstan recorded the smallest increase (0.1%), while prices remained unchanged in Aktobe, Ulytau, and Almaty. The West Kazakhstan region saw a slight price decline of 0.1%. Year-on-year, the highest price growth was observed in West Kazakhstan (4.8%), Aktobe (4.1%), and Shymkent (3.1%). The most modest increases were recorded in Almaty (0.9%), Akmola (1.1%), and Zhetysu (1.7%). Production, Pricing, and Export Data In April 2025, the average price per liter of AI-92 was 205 KZT ($0.40), AI-95/96 stood at 264 KZT ($0.52), and AI-98 at 299 KZT ($0.59). The highest AI-92 prices were in Petropavlovsk ($0.41), and the lowest in Atyrau ($0.38). Taldykorgan had the most expensive AI-95/96 ($0.54), while Atyrau offered the lowest ($0.48). AI-98 was priciest in Almaty ($0.62) and cheapest in Aktobe ($0.56). In the first two months of 2025, domestic producers met 99.99% of the nation’s gasoline demand. Kazakhstan produced 1.1 million tons of gasoline, a 20.8% year-on-year increase. Imports totaled only 101.8 tons, down 8.1%. The country exported 6,700 tons of gasoline during this period, all to Uzbekistan. Supplies to the domestic market...

Oil and Gas

Kazakhstan Ends Era of Cheap Fuel: Price Controls Set for Abolition

On January 17, the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan published a number of draft orders on the Open NLA (normative legal acts) portal, which were to be discussed within five days. In total, the Ministry proposed the abolition of eleven orders regulating wholesale and retail prices for petroleum products, which have been under price control since 2014. In addition, it intends to change the calculation formulas and price ceilings for wholesale and retail sales of liquefied and natural gas. I have been writing about the need for price liberalization since 2018, as seen in articles such as “#Kazneft, part 2: The Bermuda Gasoline Triangle - Why Prices Will Rise” and “#Kazneft, part 4: We Rank Seventh in the World for the Cheapest Gasoline. Is It Sold at a Loss?” This is a landmark event for the Government of Kazakhstan, which has long maintained not only the lowest fuel prices in the region but some of the lowest globally. The country consistently ranks among the top ten nations with the cheapest energy resources, including fuel, natural gas, coal, and electricity. Cheap and Even Cheaper According to Global Petrol Prices, as of January 20, 2025, fuel prices per liter in dollar terms across the EAEU, CIS, and neighboring countries are as follows: (Table 1) Country RON-95 Diesel Turkmenistan 0,43 0,29 Kazakhstan 0,47 0,55 Russia 0,61 0,71 Azerbaijan 0,65 0,59 Belorussia 0,75 0,75 Kyrgyzstan 0,81 0,81 Afghanistan 0,83 0,83 Uzbekistan 0,99 0,95 Georgia 1,09 1,06 China 1,15 1,02 Ukraine 1,39 1,37 Mongolia 1,49 1,19 Kazakhstan ranks seventh globally for the affordability of RON-95 gasoline, trailing behind Angola, Egypt, Algeria, Kuwait, Turkmenistan, and Malaysia. At the same time, there are “throwaway” prices in Iran, Libya, and Venezuela, but these price indicators do not reflect the actual availability of fuel in these countries. Turkmenistan also shows relatively low fuel prices, primarily due to the use of alternative fuels, such as methane, in transportation. Kazakhstan has historically had nearly double the price gap compared to its neighboring countries, which has facilitated the shadow export of fuel despite an official ban on exporting petroleum products. A Leaky Bucket I have described Kazakhstan's domestic fuel market as a "leaky bucket"— no matter how much fuel is produced, it is constantly in short supply. In 2024, the country processed about 18 million tons of oil, with its three major refineries — Atyrau: 99% owned by the national company KazMunayGas (KMG), Shymkent: 51% owned by China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), and 49% by KMG, and Pavlodar: 100% KMG — accounting for approximately 17 million tons. Mini-refineries produced an additional one million tons. The production of petroleum products (excluding fuel oil) amounted to around 14.5 million tons. The balance of petroleum products for 2025 is as follows, million tons: (Table 2) Product Production in the Republic of Kazakhstan Import from Russia Import to production, % RON-92, RON-95, RON-98 5,0 0,29 6 % Diesel fuel 5,1 0,45 9 % Jet fuel 0,75 0,3 40 % Bitumen/tar 1,1 0,50 45 % For 2025,...