Kazakhstan Second Only to Russia in CIS for Gasoline Purchasing Power

Kazakhstan ranks 36th out of 124 countries in a global gasoline affordability index based on average monthly earnings, according to recent data from Numbeo and analysis by Energyprom.kz. The study assesses how many liters of gasoline a person can buy with an average monthly salary and compares this indicator across the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and globally. Kazakhstan Among CIS Leaders in Fuel Affordability According to the report, the average Kazakhstani can purchase approximately 1,100 liters of gasoline per month based on their salary. This places Kazakhstan second among CIS countries, trailing only Russia, where the average salary covers about 1,140 liters, ranking 34th worldwide. Belarus follows with 801.3 liters, then Azerbaijan (677.9 liters), Kyrgyzstan (483.9 liters), Moldova (476.6 liters), Uzbekistan (461.3 liters), Armenia (450.3 liters), Ukraine (341.4 liters), and Tajikistan (223.8 liters). Globally, Libya leads with a staggering 10,100 liters, followed by Kuwait (8,900 liters) and Qatar (6,600 liters). In contrast, Syria ranks last, where the average salary can buy just 22.1 liters. Cuba (28.5 liters) and Côte d'Ivoire (112.3 liters) also rank among the lowest. Global Gasoline Prices: Kazakhstan Remains Among the Most Affordable Kazakhstan is also one of the countries with the lowest fuel prices, around $0.50 per liter. Cheaper fuel is found in Libya ($0.03), Egypt and Algeria ($0.30), Kuwait ($0.40), and Malaysia ($0.50). By comparison, the most expensive gasoline is in Hong Kong at $3.10 per liter, followed by Iceland ($2.40), and Singapore, the Netherlands, and Switzerland (all around $2.20). Price Trends in Kazakhstan In April 2025, gasoline prices in Kazakhstan rose by 0.4% compared to the previous month and by 2.2% year-on-year. Prices for premium grades, AI-95/96 and AI-98, increased by 0.1% month-over-month, while AI-92 rose by 0.4%. On an annual basis, AI-92 increased by 1.8%, AI-98 by 3.2%, and AI-95/96 by 4.3%. The Zhambyl region saw the highest monthly increase at 1%, followed by the Abai and Turkestan regions and Shymkent (all at 0.8%). North Kazakhstan recorded the smallest increase (0.1%), while prices remained unchanged in Aktobe, Ulytau, and Almaty. The West Kazakhstan region saw a slight price decline of 0.1%. Year-on-year, the highest price growth was observed in West Kazakhstan (4.8%), Aktobe (4.1%), and Shymkent (3.1%). The most modest increases were recorded in Almaty (0.9%), Akmola (1.1%), and Zhetysu (1.7%). Production, Pricing, and Export Data In April 2025, the average price per liter of AI-92 was 205 KZT ($0.40), AI-95/96 stood at 264 KZT ($0.52), and AI-98 at 299 KZT ($0.59). The highest AI-92 prices were in Petropavlovsk ($0.41), and the lowest in Atyrau ($0.38). Taldykorgan had the most expensive AI-95/96 ($0.54), while Atyrau offered the lowest ($0.48). AI-98 was priciest in Almaty ($0.62) and cheapest in Aktobe ($0.56). In the first two months of 2025, domestic producers met 99.99% of the nation’s gasoline demand. Kazakhstan produced 1.1 million tons of gasoline, a 20.8% year-on-year increase. Imports totaled only 101.8 tons, down 8.1%. The country exported 6,700 tons of gasoline during this period, all to Uzbekistan. Supplies to the domestic market...

Kazakhstan Ends Era of Cheap Fuel: Price Controls Set for Abolition

On January 17, the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan published a number of draft orders on the Open NLA (normative legal acts) portal, which were to be discussed within five days. In total, the Ministry proposed the abolition of eleven orders regulating wholesale and retail prices for petroleum products, which have been under price control since 2014. In addition, it intends to change the calculation formulas and price ceilings for wholesale and retail sales of liquefied and natural gas. I have been writing about the need for price liberalization since 2018, as seen in articles such as “#Kazneft, part 2: The Bermuda Gasoline Triangle - Why Prices Will Rise” and “#Kazneft, part 4: We Rank Seventh in the World for the Cheapest Gasoline. Is It Sold at a Loss?” This is a landmark event for the Government of Kazakhstan, which has long maintained not only the lowest fuel prices in the region but some of the lowest globally. The country consistently ranks among the top ten nations with the cheapest energy resources, including fuel, natural gas, coal, and electricity.   Cheap and Even Cheaper According to Global Petrol Prices, as of January 20, 2025, fuel prices per liter in dollar terms across the EAEU, CIS, and neighboring countries are as follows: (Table 1) Country RON-95 Diesel Turkmenistan 0,43 0,29 Kazakhstan 0,47 0,55 Russia 0,61 0,71 Azerbaijan 0,65 0,59 Belorussia 0,75 0,75 Kyrgyzstan 0,81 0,81 Afghanistan 0,83 0,83 Uzbekistan 0,99 0,95 Georgia 1,09 1,06 China 1,15 1,02 Ukraine 1,39 1,37 Mongolia 1,49 1,19 Kazakhstan ranks seventh globally for the affordability of RON-95 gasoline, trailing behind Angola, Egypt, Algeria, Kuwait, Turkmenistan, and Malaysia. At the same time, there are “throwaway” prices in Iran, Libya, and Venezuela, but these price indicators do not reflect the actual availability of fuel in these countries. Turkmenistan also shows relatively low fuel prices, primarily due to the use of alternative fuels, such as methane, in transportation. Kazakhstan has historically had nearly double the price gap compared to its neighboring countries, which has facilitated the shadow export of fuel despite an official ban on exporting petroleum products.   A Leaky Bucket I have described Kazakhstan's domestic fuel market as a "leaky bucket"— no matter how much fuel is produced, it is constantly in short supply. In 2024, the country processed about 18 million tons of oil, with its three major refineries — Atyrau: 99% owned by the national company KazMunayGas (KMG), Shymkent: 51% owned by China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), and 49% by KMG, and Pavlodar: 100% KMG — accounting for approximately 17 million tons. Mini-refineries produced an additional one million tons. The production of petroleum products (excluding fuel oil) amounted to around 14.5 million tons.   The balance of petroleum products for 2025 is as follows, million tons: (Table 2) Product Production in the Republic of Kazakhstan Import from Russia Import to production, % RON-92, RON-95, RON-98 5,0 0,29 6 % Diesel fuel 5,1 0,45 9 % Jet fuel 0,75 0,3 40 % Bitumen/tar 1,1 0,50 45 % For 2025,...