Green Transition - The Times Of Central Asia

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Can Uzbekistan’s Green Transition Offset Its Gas Decline?

Uzbekistan faces a widening energy gap. Natural gas production peaked in 2008 and, after a partial recovery in the late 2010s, has fallen sharply. Official figures show output dropped from 61.6 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2018 to 41.5 bcm in 2024. Production fell another 15% year on year in the first quarter of 2026. The gap is already being filled from abroad. Russian gas deliveries rose 15% in 2025 to nearly 6.5 bcm, while Uzbekistan also imports gas from Turkmenistan. Renewable electricity cannot replace every household or industrial use of gas. It can reduce the volume burned in power stations, leaving more domestic fuel available elsewhere. Declining output is already changing Uzbekistan’s external position. The country, once a net gas exporter, became a net importer in 2023. Imports help protect households and factories from shortages, but they add costs and increase exposure to Russian and Turkmen supplies. Renewable generation therefore serves an energy security purpose even before its climate benefits are counted. Natural gas remains the central concern. In its 2022 review, the International Energy Agency said it provided about 85% of Uzbekistan’s total energy and electricity supplies. The government expected gas demand to rise by 30% to 65 bcm by 2030, while electricity demand would roughly double. The IEA also warned that reserves would last fewer than 20 years at the production rate then prevailing. This was a reserve-to-production estimate, not a fixed depletion date. New discoveries or investment could extend it. Lower consumption would do the same. The government has responded with a rapid renewable buildout. In 2025, solar and wind plants generated more than 10.5 billion kWh of electricity. Renewable generation, including hydropower, reached 16.8 billion kWh. The Ministry of Energy said this saved about 3.2 bcm of natural gas. That saving was equivalent to roughly half the volume Russia supplied during the year. It shows that renewables already ease the shortage. Yet 3.2 bcm remains far below the roughly 20 bcm fall in annual gas production since 2018. On current figures, the green transition is slowing the impact of the decline, not yet offsetting it. The buildout forms part of Uzbekistan’s 2019 Green Economy Transition Strategy. Renewable projects bring foreign investment and create opportunities for domestic suppliers. In December 2025, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said local companies had supplied $700 million of materials and electrical equipment while also providing services to energy projects. Renewable generation also limits import demand by reducing the gas burned in power stations. Large projects depend heavily on decisions by the state. Procurement and land allocation affect who receives contracts. Grid access and investment approvals shape how quickly plants are completed. RFE/RL has documented concerns over opaque subcontracting in Uzbekistan’s solar sector. Its 2024 investigation found that two subcontractors on the Sherabad project were absent from publicly available documents. One company had been incorporated only two days after construction began. A founder denied accusations of corruption, while principal contractor Masdar did not respond to questions. The investigation did not establish that the...

Industrialization

Tajikistan Targets Industrial Growth as Share of GDP to Reach 30% by 2030

Tajikistan aims to increase industry’s share of gross domestic product to 30% by 2030 as part of its accelerated industrialization strategy, the State Committee on Investments and State Property Management said. The committee said the country has a strong raw materials base to support industrial development. According to the agency, Tajikistan has 10 of the 12 critical minerals most in demand for projects linked to the global green transition. More than 800 mineral and precious metal deposits have also been identified across the country, it said. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has also described Tajikistan as having more than 600 documented deposits of around 50 minerals, including silver, gold, lead, and zinc. The bank has said the country holds some of the largest antimony reserves in the region, though limited private investment has slowed development of the sector. Authorities say the focus is shifting beyond raw material extraction toward processing industries. Priority sectors include textiles, agricultural processing, construction materials, machine building, chemicals, and electrical equipment manufacturing. According to the committee, the strategy is designed to create investment opportunities across the full production cycle, from resource extraction to finished goods aimed at regional and international markets.

Nuclear power

Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Power Move and Implications for the West

Kazakhstan’s recent referendum approving the construction of its first nuclear power plant (NPP) is a watershed moment. More than a domestic policy decision, this move puts into relief Kazakhstan's strategy for positioning itself as a linchpin in the diversification of global energy supply chains, with the world's largest uranium reserves accounting for nearly 40% of the global supply and a key geographic location. The country's ambitions align with the broader resurgence of nuclear power as an indispensable component of a sustainable energy future, countering decades of stagnation in the West and challenging the dominance of Russia and China. The renewed attention on nuclear energy arises from a convergence of systemic and technological factors. Environmental pressures to reduce reliance on fossil fuels such as gas and coal have left energy producers searching for scalable, reliable alternatives. Renewable energy sources like wind and solar, while important, remain limited by intermittency and storage challenges. At the same time, safety concerns rooted in historical disasters — Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and Fukushima — have been mitigated by advances in reactor technology. A growing public recognition of nuclear power's viability has resulted. In this context, Kazakhstan's entry into the nuclear power arena is logical. Enhancing its ability to integrate uranium extraction with downstream nuclear fuel production would underscore its potential to play a central role in addressing global energy needs. By fostering international partnerships, Kazakhstan can leverage its resource wealth to become a critical supplier for advanced economies looking to diversify their energy mix. Kazakhstan's move comes at a time of shifting geoeconomic dynamics in the nuclear energy sector. Over the past three decades, Russia and China have consolidated their dominance, exploiting the West’s inertia. Russia has used NPP construction as a geoeconomic tool, creating dependence in such countries as Turkey and Uzbekistan. China, meanwhile, has aggressively developed its domestic nuclear infrastructure while securing global uranium supplies, particularly through investments in Africa and Central Asia. By contrast, Western nations have lagged behind, plagued by fragmented project management, skilled labor shortages, and political resistance. Anti-nuclear movements, many of which gained momentum during the Cold War with Soviet backing, have continued to stymie development in Europe and North America. The resulting industrial inertia has left Western economies vulnerable, with insufficient capacity to meet rising energy demands or counterbalance Russian and Chinese influence. Kazakhstan's emergence offers the West a rare opportunity to reverse this trend. The country’s multi-vector diplomatic strategy, emphasizing balanced relations with global powers, makes it an ideal partner for rebalancing energy supply chains. Kazakhstan’s role in global energy extends beyond uranium. The country’s geological resources overlap with deposits of rare-earth elements (REEs), which are vital for advanced defense technologies, renewable energy systems, and high-tech manufacturing. The shared extraction technologies and logistical infrastructure for uranium and REEs present opportunities for integrated resource development. NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) program could play a pivotal role in this regard. By incorporating rare-earth mining and supply chain security into NATO’s Critical Energy Infrastructure Protection (CEIP) framework, member states could...

Green Transition

Mirziyoyev: Central Asia Can Become a Global Green Energy Hub

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan delivered a keynote address at the Sustainability Week Summit in Abu Dhabi on January 14. The event, hosted by UAE President Sheikh Mohammed Al Nahyan, gathered global leaders, including the presidents of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, the prime ministers of Italy, Malaysia, and Finland, as well as heads of international organizations and financial institutions. The Urgency of Transitioning to a Green Economy In his speech, Mirziyoyev emphasized the critical need for a green economic transition, stating: “The diversification of energy sources and a drastic reduction of hydrocarbons are now critical conditions for mitigating climate change and ensuring global security.” Mirziyoyev noted that Uzbekistan has declared 2025 as the “Year of Environmental Protection and Green Economy.” The country’s strategic goal, under the "New Uzbekistan" framework, is to achieve sustainable economic growth through environmental sustainability and resource conservation. Low-Carbon Development Goals Outlining Uzbekistan’s low-carbon development strategy, Mirziyoyev announced plans to integrate green finance into 50% of investment projects over the next five years; reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 35% by 2030; "Green" at least 30% of urban areas; and ensure that 100% of agricultural lands adopt water-saving technologies. Mirziyoyev also highlighted Uzbekistan’s achievements in renewable energy, stating: “In the past five years, we have attracted almost $20 billion in foreign investments, commissioning modern energy capacities of 9.6 gigawatts. This includes 14 solar and wind power plants with a total capacity of 3.5 gigawatts.” Uzbekistan is currently collaborating with foreign partners on over 50 major energy projects worth $26 billion, aiming to reach a total energy capacity of 24 gigawatts by 2030. By that time, renewable energy is expected to account for 54% of the country’s total energy generation. Regional Collaboration and Global Ambitions Mirziyoyev underscored the importance of regional cooperation, saying: “We aim to turn Central Asia into one of the global centers for green economy and clean energy.” He highlighted a multilateral agreement with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan to export green energy to Europe and restore the Great Silk Road through energy connectivity. The president shared success stories of partnerships with companies like Masdar, which have generated 1.5 gigawatts of renewable energy in Uzbekistan. Additional projects are underway to create 1.6 gigawatts of generating capacity and build energy storage systems with a capacity of about 520 megawatts per hour. He also noted Uzbekistan’s untapped renewable energy potential, citing the ability to produce 500 gigawatts of solar, 100 gigawatts of wind, and 10 gigawatts of hydro energy. Advancing Green Research and Innovation Mirziyoyev referenced the establishment of the Green University in Tashkent - which will serve as a hub for global scientific collaboration - and proposed creating an international research network focused on combating land degradation and desertification. He also reiterated Uzbekistan’s initiatives introduced at COP-28 and COP-29, including the creation of an International Center for Damage and Loss Assessment and a regional hub for water-saving technologies. “We are ready to begin practical work in these areas with all our partners,” he stated. A Nationwide Green Movement Concluding his address,...

Green Transition

Kazakh President Proposes Solutions to Climate Threats at Abu Dhabi Summit

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev participated in the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week summit, where global leaders and experts convened to address pressing challenges in sustainable development. In his address, Tokayev highlighted the urgent threats posed by climate change, desertification, biodiversity loss, and food insecurity - issues exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and disruptions to global supply chains. Kazakhstan’s Strategy for Sustainability Tokayev presented Kazakhstan’s roadmap for tackling these challenges, focusing on digitalization, major infrastructure projects, and nuclear energy. Noting that global energy systems account for 75% of greenhouse gas emissions, he underscored Kazakhstan’s commitment to green energy development. The country is collaborating with international partners, including Masdar, Total, and Eni, to implement projects to generate 43 GW of renewable energy. Additionally, Tokayev highlighted the strategic importance of constructing Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant, an initiative supported through a national referendum. Regional Connectivity and Transport Infrastructure Addressing the role of transportation in sustainable development, Tokayev emphasized Kazakhstan’s position as a key transit hub in Eurasia. He called for further development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor to enhance regional connectivity and strengthen global supply chains. Sustainable transport infrastructure, he argued, is essential for driving economic growth across the region. Climate and Food Security in Central Asia Tokayev devoted significant attention to the challenges facing Central Asia, particularly the impact of global warming on ecosystems and agriculture. He proposed the introduction of water-saving technologies, the modernization of irrigation systems, and the application of artificial intelligence to better manage water resources. On food security, Tokayev outlined Kazakhstan’s plan to advance sustainable agricultural practices and technologies, aiming to mitigate climate risks while ensuring reliable food supplies. A Global Paradigm Shift Tokayev called on the international community to adopt a new development paradigm based on green finance, the transfer of climate-friendly technologies, and the integration of artificial intelligence with environmental priorities. He emphasized that aligning these strategies could significantly boost global GDP by 2030 while addressing environmental challenges. Summit Collaboration and Hope for the Future The Kazakh President concluded his speech by expressing optimism that the summit could serve as a turning point in harmonizing global priorities for sustainable development. The event featured participation from other prominent leaders, including Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Rwandan President Paul Kagame, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, and President of the International Union for Conservation of Nature Razan Al Mubarak. Together, the dignitaries reinforced the need for global cooperation in confronting environmental and economic challenges.

Green Transition

Tajikistan Leads Central Asia in Energy Transition Index

Tajikistan has secured the top position among Central Asian countries in the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) annual Energy Transition Index (ETI). Ranking 71st out of 120 nations, Tajikistan achieved a score of 53.6. This performance places Tajikistan ahead of its regional neighbors, including Kyrgyzstan, which ranked 80th with a score of 52.7, and Kazakhstan, which came in 98th with 50.1. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan were not included in the ranking. The ETI evaluates global energy systems based on two primary criteria: Energy system efficiency (60% weighting); and readiness for a sustainable energy transition (40% weighting). Key factors influencing scores include energy affordability, sustainability, innovation, infrastructure, policy support, and investment activity. While Tajikistan’s score of 53.6 was slightly below the global average of 56.5, it outperformed many other nations in Central Asia. Globally, Northern European countries dominated the rankings. Sweden led the index with 78.4 points, followed by Denmark (75.2) and Finland (74.5). Among the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Caspian countries, Azerbaijan ranked highest, securing 38th place with a score of 60.3. The Times of Central Asia previously reported on Tajikistan’s decision to rejoin Central Asia’s unified energy system. Originally established in 1960, the system interconnected the power networks of Uzbekistan, southern Kyrgyzstan, northern Tajikistan, and southern Kazakhstan’s Shymkent region. These systems were linked by 110- and 220-kilovolt power lines and operated independently of the Soviet Union’s central energy network. Tajikistan’s leadership in the Energy Transition Index reflects its ongoing commitment to energy sustainability and regional collaboration.