Hydropower - The Times Of Central Asia

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Water Security

Megaprojects Instead of Quotas: How Central Asia’s Water Diplomacy Is Changing

Central Asia’s water politics are moving beyond Soviet-era quotas. As glaciers in the Tien Shan retreat and climate pressure increases, river management has become a question of energy security, food production, and regional stability. The Soviet-era system of river-water allocation has reached its limits, forcing Central Asian states to look beyond traditional negotiations and toward joint ownership of strategic water infrastructure. Even as regional governments learn to cooperate more closely, a new challenge is emerging on Central Asia’s southern frontier, one that could disrupt the region’s hydrological balance. The Illusion of Control Formally, Central Asia’s water resources are governed through a network of interstate institutions. The principal mechanisms are the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) and the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS). On paper, the system appears effective. Twice a year, ahead of the spring-summer irrigation season and the autumn-winter period, representatives of the region’s countries meet to approve water-withdrawal quotas from the Syr Darya and Amu Darya river basins. At the end of 2025, for example, officials meeting in Ashgabat agreed on water allocations for 2026, setting total withdrawals from the Amu Darya at nearly 55.4 billion cubic meters. This framework has helped prevent open interstate conflicts by providing a permanent forum for dialogue. However, its foundation remains the 1992 Almaty Agreement, which essentially preserved a Soviet-era quota system designed for a single centrally planned state rather than a group of independent countries with competing interests. The greatest weakness of the system is the absence of any meaningful enforcement mechanism. If one country exceeds its agreed allocation during a drought year, there are no legal or economic penalties. Disputes are instead resolved through emergency negotiations between ministries or, in some cases, direct interventions by heads of state. A system dependent on political goodwill and personal relationships is increasingly fragile in an era of climate stress. Turning Water Disputes Into Joint Investments As the quota system shows signs of strain, Central Asian countries have begun experimenting with a more pragmatic approach: shared ownership of infrastructure. The central paradox of the Syr Darya basin is that upstream and downstream countries need water at different times of the year. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which control the river’s headwaters, require releases in the winter to generate electricity and heat their cities. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, meanwhile, need that same water in summer to irrigate millions of hectares of farmland. Winter releases often flow downstream when demand is low, while shortages emerge during the peak agricultural season. The proposed solution is the Kambarata-1 hydropower plant on Kyrgyzstan’s Naryn River, a project now estimated to cost around $4.2 billion. What makes the project unusual is its ownership structure. Under a 2024 agreement, Kyrgyzstan will hold a 34% stake, while Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will each own 33%. By investing billions of dollars in infrastructure located outside their territory, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are effectively purchasing seats at the decision-making table. As shareholders, they gain a direct role in determining reservoir operations, helping ensure water is...

Rogun Dam

Inside Tajikistan’s Rogun Dam, the Mega-Project Built to Power a Nation

“Building a hydroelectric power plant is a responsibility for our country!” Displayed in Tajik at the entrance to the Rogun construction site, deep in the mountains of Tajikistan, the slogan captures the significance of what has become the most ambitious infrastructure project in the country’s history - and one of the largest hydropower developments in the world. Nearly fifty years after the Soviet authorities launched construction in 1976, the mega-project is finally entering a decisive phase. Long delayed by the collapse of the Soviet Union, the civil war of the 1990s, and the economic struggles of Central Asia’s poorest country, the project has gained renewed momentum over the past decade. After a two-hour drive through the mountains east of Dushanbe, the scale of the site gradually comes into view. Located more than 1,300 meters above sea level, Rogun is far more than a dam. The complex includes dozens of kilometers of tunnels, diversion canals, underground power stations, and an extensive network of technical infrastructure carved into the rock. [caption id="attachment_49947" align="aligncenter" width="1365"] Turbines in the process of being built[/caption] Once completed, according to current project plans, the structure will rise to 335 meters, making it the tallest dam in the world, Tajik officials proudly note. For now, it stands at approximately 140 meters. “This is where the Vakhsh River flows,” says Anvar Rahmonov, Production Director at Rogun HPP, standing on a ridge overlooking the future reservoir. [caption id="attachment_49948" align="aligncenter" width="2048"] Anvar Rahmonov, Production Director at Rogun HPP[/caption] Fed by glaciers in the Pamir Mountains, the river is diverted through underground galleries that currently power two 600-megawatt turbines. Below, dozens of trucks move continuously across the site while workers labor across different sections of the project. The deep blue waters of the future reservoir - designed to hold more than 13 billion cubic meters of water - contrast sharply with the surrounding red-earth mountains and the constant movement of heavy machinery. The project remains far from complete. Four additional turbines are still under construction. Once fully operational, the plant will have a total installed capacity of 3,600 megawatts, according to Tajik project officials, comparable to that of a nuclear power station. Ending Chronic Energy Shortages For a country of just over ten million people that continues to face electricity shortages every winter, the stakes are enormous. Despite possessing one of Central Asia’s largest hydropower potentials, Tajikistan still suffers from a chronic energy deficit. During the winter months, the country lacks roughly a quarter of the electricity needed to meet domestic demand, resulting in rationing and power restrictions across much of rural Tajikistan. “Thanks to this project, Tajikistan will be able to achieve energy independence,” says Andres Ricaldi, an engineer with the Franco-Belgian consultancy Tractebel, which is involved in the project. In the substation, a diagram of the power lines supplying the different regions is shown. [caption id="attachment_49946" align="aligncenter" width="2048"] Substation zone[/caption] Yet Rogun’s ambitions extend well beyond the domestic market. “The meaning of the Rogun Dam has changed,” explains Artemy Kalinovsky,...

Green Energy

Tajikistan Links Green Energy Push to Regional Power Exports

Tajikistan is positioning renewable energy and regional electricity trade as central to its long-term economic strategy, as Dushanbe seeks to build on its hydropower base while reducing exposure to climate- and seasonal-supply risks. The message was delivered by Deputy Minister of Energy and Water Resources Sharif Makhmadzoda during a ministerial dialogue on the renewable energy transition in Central Asia. The session, titled International Cooperation for a Sustainable and Diversified Energy Future, was held as part of the Baku Energy Forum. According to Makhmadzoda, the energy transition has become one of Tajikistan’s key long-term development priorities. He said the shift toward renewable energy is not only about meeting international climate commitments, but also about strengthening energy security, supporting industrial development, and improving living standards. Tajikistan continues to place hydropower at the center of its energy strategy. Makhmadzoda noted that approximately 95% of the country’s electricity is generated by hydroelectric power plants, making the republic one of the world’s leading producers of green energy. Makhmadzoda also stressed the need to diversify the country’s energy mix, citing climate change, glacier melt, seasonal changes in river flows, and rising domestic electricity demand. Against this backdrop, the government sees modernization of the energy sector and the expansion of other renewable energy sources as increasingly important. Particular attention is being paid to the development of solar and wind power generation. Regional cooperation was another key theme of Makhmadzoda’s remarks. According to the deputy minister, Tajikistan’s renewed participation in the Central Asian Unified Energy System could play an important role in creating a regional market for clean electricity. CASA-1000 is designed to carry up to 1,300 megawatts of surplus electricity from Central Asia to high-demand markets in South Asia, linking Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan with Afghanistan and Pakistan. The comments underline a wider challenge for Tajikistan. Hydropower gives the country one of the region’s cleanest power systems, but it also leaves the energy sector heavily exposed to water availability, climate pressures, and seasonal demand peaks.

Caspian Green Energy Corridor

Kyrgyzstan Eyes Role in Trans-Caspian Green Power Route

Kyrgyzstan has signaled interest in taking part in the Central Asia-Azerbaijan Green Energy Corridor, a regional initiative aimed at expanding renewable electricity links across the Caspian region. The issue was discussed during a meeting between Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov and Kyrgyzstan’s Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibraev on the sidelines of Baku Energy Week on June 1. The ministers said the project would help integrate regional energy systems, strengthen energy security, and facilitate access to new markets for electricity generated from renewable sources. Ibraev said Kyrgyzstan’s hydropower potential and its role within the Unified Energy System of Central Asia made it a logical participant in the initiative. He added that Kyrgyzstan’s involvement would enhance the sustainability and reliability of green electricity supplies along the Caspian route. Kyrgyzstan currently faces seasonal electricity shortages and relies on imports to meet domestic demand. However, authorities expect the country to generate significant exportable surpluses once several large hydropower projects, including the long-delayed Kambarata-1 dam, are completed. The ministers also discussed fuel cooperation. The Kyrgyz side proposed increasing imports of Azerbaijani diesel as the country seeks alternatives amid rising prices for fuel traditionally supplied from Russia. The Central Asia-Azerbaijan Green Energy Corridor is one of several flagship projects aimed at strengthening energy connectivity between Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and European markets. Speaking at the Investment Forum on Energy Transition in Central Asia, held during Baku Energy Week and organized jointly by the International Renewable Energy Agency and Azerbaijan’s Energy Ministry, Shahbazov described the initiative as a key component of regional energy integration. According to Shahbazov, a strategic partnership agreement previously signed by Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan laid the foundation for the development of a Trans-Caspian Energy Corridor. “The establishment of the strategically important Trans-Caspian energy corridor, which will interconnect the power systems of our countries, is fully aligned with the key priorities of this policy,” Shahbazov said. He added that the project could also strengthen the Middle Corridor by creating a green energy link connecting Europe with Asia and China via the Caspian Sea. Shahbazov said the feasibility study for the Caspian-Black Sea-Europe Green Energy Corridor is expected to be completed by July 2026, while the feasibility study for the Central Asia-Azerbaijan Green Energy Corridor is scheduled for completion in May 2027.

Water Consumption

Central Asian Countries Rank Among World’s Highest Water Consumers

Several Central Asian countries rank among the world’s highest consumers of water per person, according to data compiled by the Worldometer portal. The figures, based on statistics from UN agencies including UNESCO and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), place Turkmenistan first globally, with Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan also in the top ten. The figures highlight a long-standing regional challenge: heavy dependence on water-intensive agriculture combined with aging irrigation systems that lose substantial amounts of water before it reaches fields. Turkmenistan leads the global ranking with daily water consumption of 15,445 liters per person. Uzbekistan ranks fourth worldwide at 4,778 liters per capita per day, followed by Tajikistan with 4,460 liters and Kyrgyzstan with 4,153 liters. Kazakhstan recorded the lowest level among Central Asian states, at 3,397 liters per person daily, though that still places it among relatively high-consuming countries internationally. In terms of total annual water use, Uzbekistan consumes the largest volume in the region at 54.56 billion cubic meters a year. It is followed by Turkmenistan with 27.9 billion cubic meters, Kazakhstan with 22.77 billion, Tajikistan with 11.49 billion, and Kyrgyzstan with around 8 billion cubic meters. Experts say agriculture explains much of the region’s high consumption. Globally, farming accounts for about 70% of freshwater use, compared with 20% for industry and 10% for households. In Central Asia, agriculture represents more than 80% of water consumption, while up to 40% of water is estimated to be lost through deteriorating irrigation infrastructure. The problem has become increasingly significant as freshwater demand rises worldwide. According to UN estimates, freshwater withdrawals have tripled over the past 50 years, while global demand continues to grow by around 64 billion cubic meters annually because of population growth, changing consumption patterns, energy production, and biofuel development. Several Central Asian governments have begun introducing reforms aimed at reducing water losses. In Uzbekistan, authorities joined the World Bank’s Water Forward initiative and announced plans to expand water-saving technologies across 4.1 million hectares of irrigated farmland while reducing irrigation losses by 25%. Kazakhstan has also faced recurring shortages. Seasonal water restrictions are regularly introduced in southern regions, and this year the government approved consumption limits because of expected shortages during the agricultural season. The issue is closely linked to energy production in upstream countries. Studies by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) indicate that more than 80% of electricity generation in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan comes from hydropower, creating a close link between irrigation needs and energy supply. Limited coordination over water releases and electricity generation has contributed to summer shortages in some years. The figures show the scale of the challenge for Central Asian governments seeking to reduce water losses and manage shared rivers more effectively.

Toktogul Reservoir

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan Agree on Toktogul Water Releases

Energy and water ministers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan signed a trilateral protocol in Tashkent on May 7 establishing agreed water release volumes and schedules from the Toktogul Reservoir for the next two months. The Toktogul Reservoir plays a central role in maintaining water and energy stability across Central Asia. The Toktogul Hydropower Plant, located on the Naryn River, the main tributary of the Syr Darya, is Kyrgyzstan’s largest power station and supplies around 40% of the country’s electricity. The reservoir serves a dual purpose: generating electricity for Kyrgyzstan while regulating water flows essential for downstream agriculture in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. During winter, Kyrgyzstan typically increases electricity generation to meet heating demand, often lowering reservoir levels and reducing the amount of water available for irrigation during the following spring and summer. According to Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry, the newly signed protocol removes uncertainty for farmers in southern Kazakhstan at the start of the agricultural season and allows both Kazakh and Uzbek farmers to begin irrigation activities on schedule. To ensure stable water supplies throughout the remainder of the growing season, the three countries agreed to continue coordination in stages. The next ministerial meeting is scheduled for mid-June in Bishkek, where officials plan to finalize water release schedules for the critical summer months of July, August, and September. The agreement highlights the continued functioning of the region’s interstate water-energy exchange mechanism. Coordination over summer irrigation flows was preceded by extensive cooperation during the winter season. From September 2025 to April 2026, Kazakhstan supplied more than 1.5 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity to Kyrgyzstan, helping the upstream country reduce winter water releases for heating and preserve additional reserves in the Toktogul Reservoir for summer irrigation needs in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. According to Kyrgyzstan’s Deputy Energy Minister Altynbek Rysbekov, the Toktogul Reservoir held 7 billion cubic meters of water on April 1, 2026, down from 9.14 billion cubic meters on January 1 after the winter heating season. The reservoir’s so-called “dead water level,” the threshold below which turbines can no longer operate, stands at 6.5 billion cubic meters.