Hydropower - The Times Of Central Asia

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Electricity Shortages

Tajikistan Prepares for Another Winter Power Shortfall

Tajikistan is preparing for another autumn and winter in which electricity demand may outstrip supply. Network losses have fallen, and investment in hydropower continues, but officials say the seasonal imbalance between generation and consumption will persist. Mahmadumar Asozoda, chairman of state-owned power company Barki Tojik, said the imbalance would persist through the colder months. Asked whether electricity rationing would return, he did not rule it out. Tajikistan generates almost all of its electricity from hydropower, leaving supply tied to seasonal river flows. Output rises during the warmer months, when the country can meet domestic demand and export surplus electricity. In winter, river flows decline as electricity use increases for heating, creating a recurring shortfall. To cover part of the winter shortfall, Tajikistan plans to import electricity from Uzbekistan again. The two countries use a seasonal exchange: Uzbekistan supplies power in autumn and winter, and Tajikistan returns an equivalent volume during summer. Tajikistan imported 306 million kilowatt-hours (kWh) last winter, down from 350 million kWh a year earlier. Asozoda said the countries expect to sign a new agreement before the next autumn-winter season. Imports can ease the shortage, but they do not remove Tajikistan's dependence on hydropower or the winter drop in output. The seasonal arrangement with Uzbekistan gives Tajikistan access to power when domestic generation is lowest. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan has signed a 20-year agreement to buy electricity from Tajikistan. Deliveries are expected to depend on additional generating capacity at the Rogun Hydropower Plant. The Nurek Reservoir stood at 888.21 meters on July 13, but Energy and Water Resources Minister Daler Juma said Tajikistan was experiencing low water levels. The country has reduced electricity exports and is retaining more water in its reservoirs for winter. Losses in the electricity system fell during the first half of 2026. At Barki Tojik's generating facilities, losses were 0.32% of output, down 0.07 percentage points from a year earlier. Losses in high-voltage transmission networks fell to 2.96%, while distribution losses dropped from 17.93% to 12.42%. Barki Tojik generated 8.89 billion kWh during the period, 2.7 million kWh less than in the first half of 2025. Hydropower plants supplied 7.93 billion kWh, while thermal plants produced 964 million kWh. The utility also bought 2.7 billion kWh from independent producers in Tajikistan and abroad, with Sangtuda-1 supplying 1.48 billion kWh. Rogun and Sangtuda-2 supplied 667.2 million kWh and 474.2 million kWh, respectively. Demand continues to rise as Tajikistan's population grows and industrial production expands, President Emomali Rahmon said in December 2025. The World Bank expects Rogun to help meet domestic needs and reduce recurring winter cuts. Rahmon has said rationing should end in 2027, when the third generating unit is scheduled to enter service, although the World Bank projects full completion in 2033. For the coming winter, Tajikistan is conserving reservoir water and arranging imports from Uzbekistan, but Asozoda's comments leave open the possibility of renewed rationing.

Tajikistan’s Electricity Losses Add Pressure to Water and Climate Agenda

Tajikistan’s aging power grid has become part of the country’s water and climate policy. The issue returned to the agenda of European Union-Tajikistan cooperation on July 3, when the two sides held a development cooperation meeting in Dushanbe. Energy and water were included in the Global Gateway agenda, while other talks addressed transport and energy infrastructure, the digital economy, water-resource management, and strategic raw materials. Tajikistan gets nearly 98% of its electricity from hydropower. That gives the country a low-carbon power mix, while tying electricity supply to river flows, snowmelt, reservoirs, and glacier change. Losses in the power system add pressure to that link. Each kilowatt-hour lost in transmission or distribution must still be generated. In Tajikistan, that usually means more water passing through hydropower plants or imported electricity when reservoir levels are low. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has focused on concessional funding for loss-reduction projects. After a May meeting between Energy Minister Daler Juma and Holger Wiefel, the EBRD’s head in Tajikistan, the energy ministry put the aim plainly: “The sides discussed attracting concessional financing for projects aimed at reducing electricity losses and improving the efficiency of the country’s energy system.” Officials also discussed private investment. Hydropower plants in the Zarafshan basin and solar plants were discussed as well. No new financing has been announced from those discussions. The immediate context is an existing EBRD- and EU-backed program for the distribution network. The Times of Central Asia previously reported in April that Tajikistan would receive nearly €49.6 million from the EBRD to reduce electricity losses. The package combines a €28 million loan with grants and technical assistance for work in nine branches of the distribution network in Sughd and Khatlon. First Deputy Finance Minister Yusuf Majidi said the project would reduce energy losses, replace worn-out infrastructure, install modern meters, and improve billing and revenue collection. The EBRD project file gives the total project cost as €43 million. It includes up to €28 million in EBRD financing and a €15 million EU co-investment grant through the Asia Pacific Investment Facility. The project targets automatic billing and metering systems in nine networks of the Bokhtar, Kulob, and Guliston branches of Shabakahoi Taqsimoti Barq. The bank says the project is aimed at reducing high inefficiency and technical losses in Tajikistan’s power distribution network. Distribution losses fell from 19.2% in 2024 to 15.6% in 2025. Even after that fall, more than 3.1 billion kWh were lost in 2025. Officials linked the reduction to smart meters and digital metering. President Emomali Rahmon put the issue in direct terms in a late 2023 parliamentary address. “Our electricity losses are about 4 billion kWh,” he said, adding: “If we prevent this, then there will be enough electricity for everyone.” That comment predates the 2025 improvement, but it still explains why loss reduction has become part of the environmental case for energy-sector financing. Cutting losses can free up electricity without new generation and reduce pressure on winter imports and hydropower reservoirs. Reuters reported...

Kazarman Hydropower Cascade

Turkish Company Launches Construction of $3 Billion Hydropower Cascade in Kyrgyzstan

Construction of the Kazarman cascade of hydroelectric power plants on Kyrgyzstan’s Naryn River officially began on June 25, marking one of the country’s largest energy infrastructure projects since independence. The project, located in the Jalal-Abad region, includes three hydropower plants, Ala-Buga, Kara-Bulun-1, and Kara-Bulun-2, with a combined installed capacity of 912 megawatts and expected annual electricity generation of more than 3.75 billion kilowatt-hours. The cascade is being developed under an investment agreement with Orta Asya Investment Holding, a subsidiary of Turkey’s İhlas Holding, with total investments estimated at $3 billion. At the official launch ceremony, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov described the Kazarman cascade as one of the largest energy projects in the country’s modern history. Japarov said Kyrgyzstan is accelerating hydropower and renewable energy development to strengthen energy security and reduce dependence on electricity imports. “Without developing the electric power industry, it is impossible to ensure the country’s sustainable development,” Japarov said. He noted that Kyrgyzstan imported about 3 billion kWh of electricity during winter in 2020, a figure that has now risen to 4 billion kWh, reflecting growing domestic demand. According to Japarov, electricity consumption continues to outpace new generation capacity despite ongoing construction of small and medium-sized hydropower plants, as well as solar and wind energy facilities. The president said the increase in demand is driven by rapid industrial expansion, with hundreds of new factories and social infrastructure facilities commissioned annually in recent years. Construction of the Kazarman cascade is scheduled for completion by 2031. Japarov said that once the Kazarman cascade and the strategic Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant become operational, Kyrgyzstan expects to fully cover domestic electricity demand and begin exporting surplus energy to neighboring countries. Kambarata-1, which is being developed jointly with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, will have an installed capacity of 1,860 MW and annual generation of 5.6 billion kWh. In addition to the Kazarman project, İhlas Holding is also involved in building a 250 MW gas-fired combined heat and power plant in Bishkek. The company is further expanding its energy footprint in Kyrgyzstan through the Suusamyr-Kokomeren hydropower cascade, for which the Eurasian Development Bank and Orta Asya Investment Holding signed a feasibility study agreement in September 2025. That project will include three hydropower plants with a combined capacity of 1,305 MW. Under the agreements, Orta Asya Investment Holding will operate the facilities for 20 years, while Kyrgyzstan guarantees the purchase of the generated electricity.

EBRD Names Tajikistan One of Central Asia’s Fastest-Growing Economies

Tajikistan continues to record one of the strongest economic growth rates in Central Asia, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in its June 2026 Regional Economic Prospects report. The EBRD estimates that Tajikistan’s economy grew by 8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, supported by growth in trade, transport and communications, along with strong manufacturing growth and higher electricity generation. Fixed capital investment rose by 34.2% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, one of the strongest performances in the region. For comparison, fixed capital investment in neighboring Kyrgyzstan rose by 25.5% during the same period, while Kazakhstan recorded growth of 6.4%. The bank attributed Tajikistan’s strong investment activity partly to public spending commitments, including the Rogun hydropower project, one of the country’s flagship infrastructure developments. Once completed, Rogun is expected to become a key part of Tajikistan’s power system and a major source of electricity exports to neighboring countries. The EBRD also noted strong growth in manufacturing, which increased by 29.6% year-on-year in January-March 2026. Electricity generation rose by 7.5%, while mining output contracted by 9.8%. Officials at Tajikistan’s State Committee on Investment and State Property Management said the figures reflect sustained interest in the country’s economy and create additional opportunities to attract domestic and foreign investors into priority sectors. Tajikistan has increasingly positioned itself as a regional energy hub, particularly through hydropower. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the country has the largest hydropower potential in Central Asia. Tajikistan’s annual hydropower potential is estimated at 527 billion kilowatt-hours, while the country accounts for a large share of Central Asia’s water resources. Despite that, much of its hydropower capacity remains untapped. International industry estimates suggest that only around 4% of Tajikistan’s hydropower potential has been developed, leaving significant room for future investment and expansion.

Hydropower

Tajikistan Uses Only 5% of Its Hydropower Potential

Tajikistan is using only a fraction of its vast hydropower resources despite possessing the largest hydropower potential in Central Asia, according to the State Committee on Investment and State Property Management. The committee said Tajikistan remains the regional leader in hydropower resources and ranks among the world’s leading countries in terms of renewable water-energy potential. Although most of Tajikistan’s hydropower potential remains undeveloped, hydropower already dominates the country’s electricity mix. Tajikistan currently generates around 98% of its electricity from renewable sources, primarily hydropower. The figures underscore both the scale of Tajikistan’s renewable energy resources and the challenges the country faces in attracting the investment needed to fully develop them. Significant untapped potential also exists in other renewable energy sectors. The country’s economically viable solar energy capacity is estimated at 369,600 megawatts, although development of solar generation remains limited. Wind power resources are estimated at 4,485 megawatts, but the sector is still at an early stage of development. Despite the limited use of much of its renewable energy potential, Tajikistan already generates approximately 98% of its electricity from renewable sources, primarily hydropower. The government aims to increase that share further. Under the country’s national energy development strategy, Tajikistan plans to generate all of its electricity from renewable sources by 2032 and achieve the status of a fully “green” country by 2037. Officials also highlighted the sector’s considerable investment potential, citing opportunities in hydropower development, solar and wind generation, energy infrastructure modernization, energy storage systems, and the export of clean electricity to regional markets. Tajikistan has increasingly positioned renewable energy development as a cornerstone of its economic strategy, seeking to leverage its abundant natural resources to strengthen energy security, attract foreign investment, and expand regional electricity exports.

Water Security

Megaprojects Instead of Quotas: How Central Asia’s Water Diplomacy Is Changing

Central Asia’s water politics are moving beyond Soviet-era quotas. As glaciers in the Tien Shan retreat and climate pressure increases, river management has become a question of energy security, food production, and regional stability. The Soviet-era system of river-water allocation has reached its limits, forcing Central Asian states to look beyond traditional negotiations and toward joint ownership of strategic water infrastructure. Even as regional governments learn to cooperate more closely, a new challenge is emerging on Central Asia’s southern frontier, one that could disrupt the region’s hydrological balance. The Illusion of Control Formally, Central Asia’s water resources are governed through a network of interstate institutions. The principal mechanisms are the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) and the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS). On paper, the system appears effective. Twice a year, ahead of the spring-summer irrigation season and the autumn-winter period, representatives of the region’s countries meet to approve water-withdrawal quotas from the Syr Darya and Amu Darya river basins. At the end of 2025, for example, officials meeting in Ashgabat agreed on water allocations for 2026, setting total withdrawals from the Amu Darya at nearly 55.4 billion cubic meters. This framework has helped prevent open interstate conflicts by providing a permanent forum for dialogue. However, its foundation remains the 1992 Almaty Agreement, which essentially preserved a Soviet-era quota system designed for a single centrally planned state rather than a group of independent countries with competing interests. The greatest weakness of the system is the absence of any meaningful enforcement mechanism. If one country exceeds its agreed allocation during a drought year, there are no legal or economic penalties. Disputes are instead resolved through emergency negotiations between ministries or, in some cases, direct interventions by heads of state. A system dependent on political goodwill and personal relationships is increasingly fragile in an era of climate stress. Turning Water Disputes Into Joint Investments As the quota system shows signs of strain, Central Asian countries have begun experimenting with a more pragmatic approach: shared ownership of infrastructure. The central paradox of the Syr Darya basin is that upstream and downstream countries need water at different times of the year. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which control the river’s headwaters, require releases in the winter to generate electricity and heat their cities. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, meanwhile, need that same water in summer to irrigate millions of hectares of farmland. Winter releases often flow downstream when demand is low, while shortages emerge during the peak agricultural season. The proposed solution is the Kambarata-1 hydropower plant on Kyrgyzstan’s Naryn River, a project now estimated to cost around $4.2 billion. What makes the project unusual is its ownership structure. Under a 2024 agreement, Kyrgyzstan will hold a 34% stake, while Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will each own 33%. By investing billions of dollars in infrastructure located outside their territory, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are effectively purchasing seats at the decision-making table. As shareholders, they gain a direct role in determining reservoir operations, helping ensure water is...