Jackson-Vanik and Kazakhstan: One Step Away from Repeal

The U.S. Senate has confirmed Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, raising hopes among Central Asian leaders - particularly in Kazakhstan - that his recent comments regarding the Jackson-Vanik amendment may soon translate into concrete action to repeal this outdated policy, which continues to hinder mutual trade. Passed in 1974 as part of the Trade Act under President Gerald Ford, the Jackson-Vanik amendment was designed to penalize countries with non-market economies that restricted emigration, particularly targeting the Soviet Union. The amendment specifically sought to pressure the USSR to allow its Jewish population to emigrate freely, while also protesting the suppression of Judaism and other religious practices. The amendment achieved a measure of success by 1989, when the Iron Curtain fell and Soviet Jews were permitted to emigrate in large numbers, primarily to Israel and the United States. However, the policy remained in place, even after the dissolution of the USSR, applying to the newly independent Central Asian republics despite their vastly different political and economic landscapes. On January 15, Rubio delivered a nearly five-hour confirmation speech during a Senate hearing for his nomination as Secretary of State under the Donald Trump administration. Among the topics discussed was the Jackson-Vanik amendment. Senator Steve Daines specifically asked Rubio for his position on the amendment, emphasizing that its repeal could normalize U.S. trade relations with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Rubio described the amendment as “an absurd relic of the past,” asserting that it no longer serves any meaningful purpose in pressuring Central Asian countries on human rights. He warned that continued use of such measures could push nations like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan closer to Russia’s sphere of influence. Rubio singled out Kazakhstan, noting that the country had “successfully met the conditions” to transition to a market economy, as evidenced by its accession to the World Trade Organization several years ago. He pledged to work with lawmakers to repeal the Jackson-Vanik amendment, signaling a shift in U.S. policy toward fostering deeper economic ties with the region. Why Central Asia Was Left Behind The continued application of the Jackson-Vanik amendment to Central Asia can be partially explained by the differing domestic policies of its key players - Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Under Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan quickly abandoned Soviet-era restrictions on emigration and took steps to promote religious tolerance and interfaith harmony. By contrast, Uzbekistan under Islam Karimov maintained many of the Soviet Union’s repressive practices, including restrictions on religious minorities. This disparity in policies contributed to Washington’s perception of the region as monolithic and resistant to reform, discouraging efforts to lift the amendment. Recent Developments and Challenges In recent years, there have been efforts to lower trade barriers between the U.S. and Central Asia, particularly through initiatives like the B5+1 dialogue, which aims to attract greater Western investment to the region. However, the Jackson-Vanik amendment complicates these efforts, as countries must secure an annual waiver from the U.S. President to maintain normal trade relations. Kazakhstan has emerged as the frontrunner in advocating for the amendment’s repeal. An...

Trump Nominee Marco Rubio Signals Support for Normalizing Central Asia Trade

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for secretary of state says the Jackson-Vanik amendment, a 50-year-old law that imposes some restrictions on trade with several countries in Central Asia, is “a relic of an era that’s passed.” U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, a Florida Republican who spoke on Wednesday during a confirmation hearing in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, also described China, a key economic partner in Central Asia, as a threat and an adversary. Rubio, known as a hawk on national security issues, had harsh words too for what he called chaos-sowing “dictators” in Moscow, Tehran and Pyongyang. Tough language aside, Rubio’s interactions with his fellow senators were relatively smooth, suggesting his path to the secretary of state job is open as the United States prepares for Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20. Central Asian nations have been watching for what to expect when Trump returns for a second term in the White House, and they got an encouraging glimpse in Rubio’s testimony. In the Washington hearing, Senator Steve Daines, a Montana Republican, told Rubio that he and Senator Gary Peters, a Michigan Democrat, have been working to rescind the Jackson-Vanik amendment in Central Asia. The 1974 law, passed at the height of the Cold War, aimed to promote human rights in countries that were part of the Soviet bloc by preventing normal trade relations with “non-market economies” that restrict emigration. But Daines argued that it is outdated in the former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, especially as Central Asia becomes more important because of its energy resources and geopolitical influence. “I realize you have a lot of priorities on your plate when you will be confirmed as our secretary,” Daines said to Rubio. He added that rescinding the amendment in the region would be a big step “that Central Asia needs right now to grow.” In response, Rubio said that permanent removal of the amendment in Central Asia would require legislative approval and he mentioned an initiative by Senators Chris Murphy (Connecticut Democrat) and Todd Young (Indiana Republican) that also seeks to peal the measure for Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. “I think this is a relic of an era that’s passed,” Rubio said of the Jackson-Vanik amendment. “There are some that argue that we should use it as leverage for human rights concessions, or leverage to get them to go stronger in our way” against Russia, he said. However, the Florida senator said, Kazakhstan is a market economy and therefore meets conditions for removal from the amendment’s restrictions. He added: “So we will work with you on this because I think it’s important.” Kazakhstan became a member of the World Trade Organization in 2015, two years after Tajikistan joined the group. Uzbekistan has been signing individual agreements with countries and hopes to join the WTO by 2026. Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine and Russia are among former Soviet states that were subject to the Jackson-Vanik amendment but later achieved normal trade relations status with the United States. Russia, however, is currently under Western...