U.S.-Central Asia Engagement - The Times Of Central Asia

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Middle East Crisis

Trump’s New Threat Against Iran Collides With Central Asia’s Economic Interests

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened economic consequences for any country that continues to provide support to Iran, promising Tehran “Economic Warfare and Isolation on an unprecedented scale.” Washington has not yet announced specific new measures. For Central Asia, the warning comes as economic and transport links with Iran are developing. Kazakhstan is building its own terminal at Iran’s largest port, Tajikistan is discussing fuel purchases and new transport routes, Uzbekistan is trying to protect trade that passes through Iran, and Turkmenistan is expanding transport and energy cooperation with Tehran. Each country has its own reasons for developing these ties, but they share one concern: for landlocked Central Asia, Iran provides one of the few overland routes to the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. Washington’s attempt to tighten Iran’s economic isolation therefore affects not only the region’s relations with Tehran, but also its own plans to diversify trade and transit. None of this means that Central Asian governments are prepared to disregard U.S. sanctions or enter into a political confrontation with Washington on Tehran’s behalf. The threat of secondary restrictions could cause banks, carriers, and private companies to withdraw from individual transactions even without formal decisions by their governments. Trump has not yet explained exactly what instruments he intends to use to enforce the isolation he announced. Kazakhstan Looks to the Persian Gulf Iran intensified its work with Central Asia well before Trump’s latest threat. In mid-June, the Iranian Minister of Roads and Urban Development Farzaneh Sadegh visited Astana. In talks with Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin, the two sides noted that bilateral trade had increased by 26.4% in 2025 to $430.2 million. Astana and Tehran now want to raise it to $3 billion, using, among other things, the free trade agreement between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union, of which Kazakhstan is a member. The plans go beyond trade. Freight traffic along the International North-South Transport Corridor, which links Russia and Central Asia with Iran and Persian Gulf ports, rose by 12% in 2025 to 3.5 million metric tons. Rail freight between Kazakhstan and Iran also increased by 69%. Astana’s main interest lies even farther south. Iran has allowed Kazakhstan to establish its own transport and logistics terminal at Shahid Rajaee in Bandar Abbas, the country’s largest commercial port. On June 28, the two sides signed a Build-Operate-Transfer agreement. It runs for 27 years, with two years allocated for construction and another 25 for operation. Commercial operations are scheduled to begin in the project’s third year. For Kazakhstan, this is more than simply an overseas terminal. Its Foreign Ministry explicitly links the project to opening access for Kazakh cargo to markets in the Persian Gulf, South and Southeast Asia, and East Africa. In July, Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev again reaffirmed Astana’s interest in the project during a visit to Iran. The ministry also cited a 26.4% increase in bilateral trade in 2025 to $430.2 million. Astana is also considering another Iranian port, Chabahar, on the Indian Ocean....

Middle Corridor

Daines’s Tour Signals an Emerging U.S. Caspian Corridor Strategy

Senator Steve Daines’s July 7–9 visit to Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan brought three bilateral relationships into a single, compressed Caspian itinerary. In Baku, he met President Ilham Aliyev and senior economic and foreign-policy officials; in Astana, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and representatives of government and business; and in Ashgabat, President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov, and Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov. Although official accounts treated each stop separately, the sequence suggests a regional pattern whose significance exceeds any single announcement. Daines had already supplied the clearest public articulation of the governing logic in his June 11 speech to the Caspian Policy Center’s Trans-Caspian Forum. There he joined Central Asia and the South Caucasus in a discussion about westward connectivity, investment, and supply-chain diversification. Daines identified critical minerals, energy, telecommunications, and physical and digital infrastructure as fields for public and private investment, while calling for TRIPP, a Caspian gas interconnector, and a continuous route from Central Asia to Western markets that avoids Russia and Iran. Together, these sectors give the proposed route both commercial and strategic content, though not the form of a single named program. Read against the June speech, Daines’s itinerary marks an emerging corridor-centered effort aligned with the Trump administration’s broader Caspian engagement, even without a formal declaration of purpose. Azerbaijan Anchors the Corridor’s Western Connections Baku gives the corridor logic its strongest institutional and bilateral footing. Aliyev and Daines discussed Azerbaijan’s geopolitical role, regional peace, and TRIPP’s importance for transport connectivity. Separate meetings with Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov extended the agenda to economic cooperation. With SOCAR President Rovshan Najaf, Jabbarov and Daines took up the Middle Corridor, energy, transport, digital development, and critical-mineral extraction and processing. Across the meetings, political, commercial, and technical portfolios converged around Azerbaijan’s place at the corridor’s western Caspian egress. The U.S.–Azerbaijan Strategic Partnership Charter, signed in February, places the Middle Corridor alongside energy, trade, transit, digital connectivity, and critical-mineral movement. It identifies Azerbaijan as an energy, transport, trade, and logistics hub for the Caspian region. Working groups regularize cooperation on trade, energy, connectivity, digital development, and security. The charter also calls for project lists and implementation roadmaps within three months of signing and for meetings at least once a year. In June, the first Azerbaijan-U.S. Economic Dialogue began translating that direction into an operational agenda. Government, financial institutions, and private-sector participants met on regional connectivity and transit, energy security, investment, artificial intelligence, and digital infrastructure. The agenda connected the Middle Corridor and TRIPP with logistics, the Southern Gas Corridor, critical mineral supply chains, transport and energy investment, and the Alat Free Economic Zone. Closing documents covered digital infrastructure, technology transfer, and industrial solutions. The workstreams are clear, but the consolidated project portfolio and its financing have yet to take public form. Azerbaijan’s role also rests on physical infrastructure already in use. The established Middle Corridor crosses Kazakhstan and the Caspian before passing through Azerbaijan and Georgia, then onward toward Türkiye or Europe via the Black Sea. At Alat, 70 kilometers...

TRIPP

The 43 Kilometers That Could Rewire Eurasia

The Caspian Policy Center’s Trans-Caspian Forum 2026 convened U.S. and regional officials at the National Press Club in Washington on June 10 for a discussion of peace, economic security, and durable partnerships. The forum framed a short Armenia-based link as part of a wider effort to turn the Middle Corridor into a working route for cargo, energy, data, and capital. The strategic dialogue was chaired by Dr. Eric Rudenshiold, CPC research director and senior fellow. Speakers included Aryeh Lightstone, Senior Advisor to the Board of Peace and to Ambassador Steve Witkoff; Hikmet Hajiyev, Assistant to Azerbaijan’s president and foreign-policy department head; Yerzhan Kazykhan, Kazakhstan’s presidential representative for U.S. negotiations; Javlon Vakhabov, deputy adviser to Uzbekistan’s president on foreign policy; and Edil Baisalov, Kyrgyzstan’s ambassador to the United States and presidential special envoy. The meeting came as Washington tries to turn the Armenia-Azerbaijan thaw, the C5+1 critical minerals agenda, and private-sector interest into routes that can move cargo, energy, data, and capital across the Caspian. The discussion cast the Middle Corridor as the main strategic alternative linking Central Asian production to western markets. The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) refers to a planned 43-kilometer link through southern Armenia’s Syunik province, near Meghri and the Arax River, that would connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave. With rail, road, energy, and digital infrastructure, TRIPP is intended to plug into the wider Trans-Caspian route from Central Asia through Azerbaijan and Türkiye to Europe. Aryeh Lightstone opened by placing connectivity inside the Trump administration’s peace and economic-security agenda. His remarks tied Armenia-Azerbaijan diplomacy, the Board of Peace, and the Abraham Accords to the claim that commerce can reinforce peace where standard diplomacy stalled. Lightstone shifted the subject from maps to execution. Customs, regulatory harmonization, digital trade platforms, border procedures, and bankable investment vehicles will decide whether the Middle Corridor becomes a reliable system, he said. His reference to a TRIPP Plus Enterprise Fund pointed to U.S. structures that can move from declarations to projects. Hikmet Hajiyev presented Azerbaijan as the hinge of that system. The Caspian, he argued, does not separate Azerbaijan from Central Asia, but unites them. His line that C5+1 was mathematics while the C6 was chemistry captured Baku’s framing. Azerbaijan is positioning itself as a logistical and strategic extension of Central Asia, connected through Turkic institutions, energy routes, rail, ports, aviation, and digital links. Hajiyev described the Middle Corridor as moving from a supplementary transit route into a strategic geoeconomic system, linking Baku-Tbilisi-Kars rail capacity, Baku port, Nakhchivan, TRIPP, and the planned Trans-Caspian fiber-optic cable with Kazakhstan. Ambassador Kazykhan presented Kazakhstan’s strategic value as something built over time and backed by material capacity, not diplomatic positioning alone. Kazakhstan is by far the region’s largest economy, with the IMF projecting 2026 GDP of about $360 billion. Kazykhan said more than 600 American companies operate in Kazakhstan and cumulative U.S. investment has surpassed $100 billion. Kazakhstan also supplies about 24% of U.S. uranium imports and has reserves or production capacity linked...

AMM 2026

Kazakhstan Seeks More Than Extraction as U.S. Minerals Interest Grows

Kazakhstan is using renewed U.S. interest in critical minerals to push a larger industrial goal: moving beyond raw-material exports and into processing, technology transfer, and higher-value manufacturing. That ambition was on display in Astana this week across two closely linked but distinct events. The C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue, held on June 10, brought together representatives of the five Central Asian states and the United States for a diplomatic discussion on supply-chain cooperation. The following day, the 16th International Mining and Metallurgy Congress and Exhibition, Astana Mining & Metallurgy (AMM) 2026 opened as an industry forum for mining companies, investors, technology providers, and government officials. The proximity was deliberate; the purposes were different. For Kazakhstan, the issue is not only foreign demand. It wants critical minerals to support a wider industrial strategy, including domestic processing, engineering capacity, and new manufacturing clusters. June 10: The C5+1 Diplomatic Track The C5+1 dialogue brought together representatives of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and the United States. Its agenda covered geological exploration, surveying and mapping, mining and processing, logistics, and global value and supply chains. Kazakhstan’s Minister of Industry and Construction, Yersayin Nagaspayev, used the dialogue to present critical minerals as part of the country’s industrial policy rather than simply as an export opportunity. U.S. Special Envoy for South and Central Asian Affairs Sergio Gor represented Washington at the meeting. “Kazakhstan is interested not only in exporting raw materials, but also in developing joint production facilities, technology transfer, workforce training, and scientific cooperation,” Nagaspayev said. That point is central to Astana’s pitch. Kazakhstan has long been a major mining state, but the government is increasingly presenting critical minerals as a way to change the structure of the economy. Nagaspayev said the country has more than 9,500 mineral deposits, including more than 100 that contain rare and rare-earth metals. Kazakhstan holds significant deposits of tungsten and molybdenum and has the potential to establish a domestic raw-material base for tantalum and niobium production. It also has reserves of lithium and beryllium, which are important for advanced manufacturing, electronics, aerospace, energy storage, and defense-related industries. Kazakhstan has proven reserves or active production of roughly half of the 54 minerals identified as critical by the United States, according to Al-Farabi Ydyryshev, director general of the National Center for Technological Forecasting under the Industrial Committee. Ydyryshev said Kazakhstan already has extraction and processing capacity for materials used in aerospace, electronics, energy, and defense industries, including beryllium, tantalum, niobium, titanium, and rhenium. The question is whether those capabilities can be expanded into higher-value production. Washington’s interest in Central Asia has grown as critical minerals have become a larger part of economic security policy. China remains dominant in the production and processing of many minerals needed for batteries, semiconductors, renewable energy, digital infrastructure, and advanced defense systems. Speaking at the June 10 meeting, Gor linked the minerals agenda to the need for diversification. “Our economic security depends on our ability to diversify our access to critical minerals,” Gor said. “Ensuring reliable access...

AMM 2026

U.S. Moves from Dialogue to Action on Critical Minerals in Kazakhstan

ASTANA — David L. Fogel, Assistant Secretary of Commerce and Director General of the United States and Foreign Commercial Service, told delegates at the 16th International Astana Mining & Metallurgy (AMM) Congress in Astana on June 11-12 that the United States is moving from discussion to strategic execution in Central Asia’s critical minerals sector. Fogel’s responsibilities at Commerce include leading the International Trade Administration’s Global Markets unit, which focuses on commercial diplomacy, export promotion, advocacy for U.S. companies, and foreign investment. Speaking in Astana, where the AMM Congress gathered top-level mining, metallurgy, technology, finance, and government leaders, Fogel said the United States had brought a historically large delegation to Kazakhstan, including more than 20 U.S. companies and representatives from across the U.S. government. The AMM Congress is one of the region’s major mining and metallurgy platforms. Fogel framed the visit as part of a broader U.S. strategic push to strengthen supply-chain resilience at a time of heightened global competition over minerals essential to energy, infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, and emerging technologies. Critical minerals, he said, are now among the top priorities for the United States, not only in terms of sourcing, but also processing. That emphasis is consistent with the Trump administration’s wider policy focus on processed critical minerals and derivative products as issues tied to economic security, national security, and America’s industrial base. Fogel placed the visit within the Trump administration’s broader effort to give Central Asia greater strategic attention, particularly as critical minerals, connectivity, and supply-chain resilience move higher on Washington’s agenda. He said the current push reflects sustained engagement from senior U.S. officials, including Ambassador Sergio Gor, U.S. Special Envoy for South and Central Asian Affairs, and is being carried forward in country by the U.S. team in Kazakhstan under U.S. Ambassador Julie Stufft. Fogel emphasized execution, saying talks related to the C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue the day before focused on turning a shared vision for cooperation into practical outcomes. “How do we take this vision of cooperation and put it into actionable projects?” he asked. According to Fogel, the objective is to turn plans into tangible ventures that can attract capital, technology, and long-term business participation. Fogel’s point was that the United States is looking for projects that strengthen critical minerals supply chains while building strategic relationships, rather than organizing endless rounds of declarations that lead nowhere. He presented the process as a disciplined commercial and strategic effort of identifying the right opportunities, minimizing risk for companies weighing where to direct their resources, applying consistent international standards, and creating conditions in which American companies can compete. [caption id="attachment_50309" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] Image: TCA[/caption] The practical implication of Fogel’s remarks was that enthusiasm for mineral resources alone is not enough to draw major long-term investment. Companies need reliable mapping, credible surveys, and consistent international standards that allow projects to be assessed and financed. In that sense, geological data and standards are not technical details, but the bridge between mineral potential and bankable projects backed up by solid in-country partners....

C5+1

U.S. Convenes Critical Minerals Dialogue with Central Asian Officials in Kazakhstan

ASTANA — The United States opened a new round of high-level critical minerals talks with Central Asian governments in Astana on June 10, with U.S. Special Envoy for South and Central Asian Affairs Sergio Gor saying Washington is placing new emphasis on a region it sees as central to global commerce, connectivity, and secure supply chains. Speaking at the C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue, Gor said Central Asia “has not gotten the attention it deserves from the United States,” and that the Trump administration had decided to change that. “We care about this region, we want to be involved with this region, we want to identify win-win situations for the United States and your nations,” Gor said. The meeting, held at The Ritz-Carlton in Astana, brought together officials from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and the United States. The program included sessions on geological exploration, surveying and mapping, mining and processing, and global value and supply chains, followed by a government-business networking reception. Gor thanked Kazakhstan for hosting what he described as the first in-person C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue and said he had met with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev shortly before the session. Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry said that ahead of the dialogue, Gor and Kazakh Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev had discussed economic and investment partnerships, innovation, artificial intelligence, education, transport, logistics, and critical minerals. The ministry also said the sides discussed the implementation of agreements reached between Tokayev and U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House in November 2025. Gor framed the Astana meeting as part of a broader increase in U.S. engagement with Central Asia following the C5+1 leaders’ meeting in Washington last year. He said critical minerals are now a central part of that engagement because they are essential to infrastructure, advanced technologies, industry, and national defense. “Our economic security depends on our ability to diversify our access to critical minerals,” Gor said. “Ensuring reliable access to these materials requires not only expanding production, but also building resilient, transparent, and market-driven supply chains in close partnership with trusted partners.” He added that the Central Asian states represented at the table were exactly the partners Washington wants to work with. “There’s a reason we’re sitting at this table and not at another table around the world,” Gor said. “It’s because this is where we want to work. This is where we have identified trusted partners.” Gor highlighted the role of U.S. commercial and development-finance tools in supporting investment, saying Washington is prepared to back American companies working in the region. “The United States government stands behind American companies,” Gor said. “There is no such thing as a deal too small.” Gor also pointed to the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, saying it was preparing to “invest and build” in the region and saw potential in critical minerals, telecommunications, and Trans-Caspian infrastructure. He said DFC saw “potential to transform the region’s rich deposits of critical minerals into the foundation of a new wave of industrialization.” “President Trump understands the importance of...