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Labor Market

AI in Kazakhstan to Affect Four Million Jobs in Next Decade, Says Labor Ministry

Around half of all professions in Kazakhstan are expected to change under the impact of AI over the next decade, with some jobs declining and others disappearing entirely, lawmakers and government officials have said. Daniya Yespayeva, Deputy Chair of the lower house of parliament, the Mazhilis, citing data from the Ministry of Labor, stated that by 2035, transformations will affect 562 jobs, about 44% of the labor market, equivalent to roughly 4 million workers. According to her, employment in 46 professions, covering around 362,000 people (about 4% of the labor market), is expected to decline, while 14 professions, employing approximately 49,000 people, may disappear completely. Yespayeva did not specify which professions are at greatest risk. However, Minister of Science and Higher Education Sayasat Nurbek noted that couriers and taxi drivers could be among the first affected. He said that around 700,000 people in Kazakhstan currently work in these sectors through platforms such as Glovo, Yandex, and Wolt. “These are temporary forms of employment. As early as this year, several Kazakh companies are launching autopilot technologies in both taxi services and delivery, so within a few years, couriers and taxi drivers may no longer be needed,” Nurbek said, urging citizens to focus on more sustainable career paths. Earlier reports indicated that a pilot drone delivery project could be launched in Almaty, while driverless taxis are planned for introduction in Astana. Askhat Aimagambetov, a Mazhilis deputy, also warned about risks facing several popular academic fields. According to him, in 2025, the highest competition for university admissions was in programs such as Translation Studies, International Relations, and Law, fields that, in his view, could be among those most affected by automation. Aimagambetov stressed the need to revise the allocation of state-funded educational grants to avoid encouraging training in professions at high risk of decline. He also noted that employment among young developers aged 22-25 declined by nearly 20% over the past year, despite significant investment in IT education. “We are training an army of coders at a time when AI is already writing code itself. It is no longer enough to train ‘coders of yesterday,’” he said. Nurbek agreed with this assessment, pointing to a shortage of specialists in eight key sectors, including advanced manufacturing, digital technologies, clean energy, finance, life sciences, defense, creative industries, and professional services. According to him, part of the gap is being addressed through private-sector involvement. Kazakhstan has established 75 joint laboratories across 19 universities in partnership with companies such as Amazon Web Services, Cisco, Huawei, Schneider Electric, and Honeywell, as well as Eurasian Resources Group, Freedom Holding, and KEGOC. More than 7,500 students are currently studying in these laboratories across 179 disciplines. Business investment in these initiatives has totaled around $5.2 million, although the minister noted that such efforts remain limited in scope. “If this gap is not addressed, the education system will continue to train specialists for yesterday’s economy,” Nurbek said, emphasizing that aligning education with economic needs has become a matter of national security.

Uzbek Diaspora

Over 100,000 Uzbek Workers Recruited to Work in Russia in 2025

Around 106,000 citizens of Uzbekistan went to work in Russia in 2025 through organised recruitment programs, according to a report prepared by Rahim Khakimov, Deputy Adviser to the President of Uzbekistan, and cited by the Russian state news agency TASS. The report states that about 50,000 of these workers were employed by major companies, including Gazprom, Lukoil, Kamaz, AvtoVAZ, Ozon, and SPAR. Overall, an estimated 1.3 million Uzbek citizens are currently working in Russia on a temporary basis. The document also highlights ongoing efforts to simplify labor migration procedures. Agreements reached in 2025 provide for the partial transfer of work patent processing stages to Uzbekistan, allowing migrants to complete key formalities before departure. Authorities also plan to expand Russian-language testing by opening new centres in the cities of Jizzakh and Andijan to better serve the densely populated Fergana Valley, where nearly one-third of the country’s population lives. At the same time, migration trends are gradually shifting. According to Uzbekistan’s Central Bank, Uzbek labor migrants are no longer concentrated solely in traditional destinations such as Russia, Kazakhstan, South Korea, and Turkey. Increasing numbers are seeking employment opportunities in Europe and other parts of Asia. This diversification is reflected in remittance flows. Data show that transfers to Uzbekistan from the United Kingdom have increased by 39% in recent years, while remittances from European Union countries have risen by 37%. Significant growth has also been recorded from countries such as Ireland, Croatia, Slovakia, Lithuania, and the Netherlands, as well as from the United States and South Korea. Analysts attribute this trend to stable demand for labor abroad, relatively steady wage levels, and favorable currency exchange rates. According to the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), Uzbek labor migrants typically send home between $200 and $300 per month. Separate estimates from the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford suggest that migrants in the United Kingdom remit between £1,000 and £3,300 annually per person. Overall, the average yearly remittance per recipient in Uzbekistan is estimated at between $2,000 and $4,000. Alongside these broader trends, consular support for Uzbek citizens abroad continues. On March 22, the Dunyo news agency reported that representatives of Uzbekistan’s embassy visited a Temporary Detention Center for Foreign Citizens in Russia’s Tula region. During the visit, Consul General Mehriddin Khairiddinov reviewed living conditions and held talks with Russian officials on accelerating document processing and facilitating the return of detained Uzbek nationals. “Supporting fellow citizens and providing them with the necessary assistance remain among the priority tasks of the diplomatic mission,” Khairiddinov said, emphasizing that the protection of citizens’ rights is a key principle of Uzbekistan’s state policy.

Employment

Kazakhstan Authorities Acknowledge Gap Between Real Scale of Shadow Employment and Official Data

Kazakhstan’s authorities have acknowledged a significant discrepancy between official estimates of informal employment and administrative data, highlighting the scale of the country’s shadow labor market. Minister of Labor and Social Protection Askarbek Yertaev said the actual number of people working outside the formal economy could be almost three times higher than indicated by official statistics. He made the statement during a Senate meeting devoted to regional development issues. Presenting the ministry’s assessment of informal employment, Yertaev noted that out of a workforce of 9.7 million people, only 6.7 million made mandatory pension contributions at least once in 2025. Of these, 5.3 million were employees and 1.4 million were self-employed. This leaves around 3 million people without recorded pension contributions. According to the minister, the figure significantly exceeds official estimates. Data from the National Statistics Bureau indicated that at the beginning of 2025, informal employment accounted for about 12% of the employed population, or just over 1.1 million people. Yertaev said the discrepancy suggests that a substantial number of citizens either work informally or underreport their income. Additional evidence of the scale of shadow employment comes from differences between statistical data and digital administrative records. While official statistics show 7.1 million registered employees, the Unified System for Accounting for Employment Contracts records contracts for only 4.1 million people. Among the factors driving workers into informal employment, Yertaev cited overdue debts and the freezing of bank accounts, which he said may encourage individuals to conceal income and avoid formal labour arrangements. To address the issue, the Ministry of Labor plans to expand the use of digital tools aimed at facilitating formal employment. This includes the introduction of AI solutions on the Electronic Labor Exchange portal. According to the ministry, an AI-based system will automatically match job seekers with vacancies based on their education and professional background, while also supporting users throughout the job search process. Deputy Chairman of the State Revenue Committee of the Ministry of Finance Zhanibek Nurzhanov also presented the results of a pilot project on platform employment. Implemented jointly with the Ministry of Labor, the initiative led to the registration of more than 43,000 taxi drivers as individual entrepreneurs under a special tax regime. The State Revenue Committee’s information systems are now integrated with 31 online platforms, a step authorities say should help bring more workers into the formal economy. Participants in the Senate discussion stressed that efforts to reduce shadow employment should combine enforcement measures with policies that encourage voluntary legalization of labor relations. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, proposals to combat the payment of undeclared wages included sectoral agreements on salary levels and requirements for companies to disclose employment structures.

Migration Policy

Kazakhstan to Focus on Skilled Migrants in New Migration Policy

Kazakhstan is shifting toward a more pragmatic migration policy aligned with the needs of the national economy. The government’s newly approved Migration Policy Concept through 2030 prioritizes attracting in-demand highly skilled professionals and encouraging internal migration to regions experiencing labor shortages. According to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, the number of foreign labor migrants in Kazakhstan reached 16,100 in 2025. Minister of Labor Askarbek Yertayev said that greater emphasis will be placed on assessing the professional qualifications of foreign workers. Priority will be given to specialists with relevant education, work experience, and competencies sought in the domestic labor market. By 2030, the share of skilled workers among labor migrants is expected to increase to 95%. To support these objectives, the ministry has launched a pilot project on the digital platform migration Enbek.kz. The initiative introduces a comprehensive scoring system to evaluate applicants when issuing permanent residence permits and granting kandas status, a designation for ethnic Kazakhs returning to their historical homeland. A draft law has also been prepared that includes revising fees for hiring foreign labor, tightening regulation of private employment agencies, and formally integrating the digital scoring mechanism into migration decision-making processes. The quota for attracting foreign workers in 2026 has been set at 0.25% of the total national workforce, according to official data. The main countries of origin for officially employed foreign nationals remain China, Uzbekistan, Turkey, and India. At the same time, the government is strengthening measures to manage internal migration. In 2025, 14.7% of participants in state-supported interregional resettlement programs relocated to northern regions of the country. Major cities such as Almaty and Astana continue to attract young people from less economically developed regions, exacerbating territorial imbalances.

Labor Market

Kazakhstan Sets 2026 Quota for Foreign Workers

Kazakhstan has set its 2026 quota for the employment of foreign workers at 0.25% of the country’s total labor force, according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection. The annual quota is part of the government’s policy to regulate labor migration and safeguard the domestic job market. The 2026 quota includes specific allocations across several categories of foreign workers: 726 permits for senior managers and their deputies (first category), 3,402 for heads of structural divisions (second category), 5,893 for specialists (third category), and 3,131 for skilled workers (fourth category). An additional 4,994 permits have been allocated for seasonal labor. Separately, the quota for foreign labor employed in private households has been set at 2.9% of Kazakhstan’s total labor force for the year. The new quotas mark an increase from 2025, when the initial foreign labor cap was 0.2%, equivalent to 14,800 permits. In March 2025, that figure was raised to 16,500 following requests from regional authorities grappling with labor shortages. As of December 1, 2025, 14,103 foreign nationals were officially employed in Kazakhstan. The largest contingents came from China, Uzbekistan, Turkey, and India, underscoring the country’s continued dependence on migrant labor in construction, industry, and other specialized sectors. The quota-based system reflects Kazakhstan’s broader strategy to meet economic labor demands while prioritizing employment for domestic workers, particularly amid ongoing infrastructure expansion and industrial development.

Migrant Workers

More Than a Third of Migrant Workers in Kazakhstan Are Chinese Citizens

More than 35% of all foreign nationals officially working in Kazakhstan are Chinese citizens, according to data published by the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan. As of December 1, 2025, a total of 14,103 foreign citizens were employed in Kazakhstan under permits issued by local executive authorities. The largest group of labor migrants comprises Chinese nationals, 5,604 individuals, representing over 35% of the total. They are followed by citizens of Uzbekistan (2,110 people, about 15%), Turkey (1,036 people, over 7%), and India (943 people, more than 6%). Migrants from other countries make up roughly 35% of the foreign labor force, a proportion nearly equal to that of China. In 2025, the structure of permits for foreign labor included 537 issued to managers and their deputies (first category), and 2,244 to heads of structural divisions (second category). Most foreign workers fell into the third and fourth categories, specialists (3,784 people) and skilled workers (1,271 people). Additionally, 2,299 permits were granted for seasonal work, and 3,970 were issued as part of corporate transfers. The ministry reported that 1,817 employers in Kazakhstan currently utilize foreign labor. These companies also employ more than 334,000 Kazakhstani citizens, who make up about 96% of their total workforce. By sector, the highest number of foreign workers are employed in construction, 4,993 people, just over 35%. Other major sectors include agriculture, forestry, and fisheries (2,316 workers, 16.5%), mining and quarrying (1,235 workers, about 9%), and manufacturing (1,155 workers, approximately 8%). To safeguard the domestic labor market, Kazakhstan sets an annual quota for the employment of foreign workers. In 2025, the initial quota was 0.2% of the workforce, or 14,800 permits. This figure was raised to 16,500 in March at the request of regional authorities. In August, the quota was increased further to 0.25% or 19,400 permits, following the expansion of the list of professions eligible for seasonal foreign workers. It was later revised down to 16,700 permits, based on updated regional needs. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, more than 80,000 Russian citizens received residence permits to work in Kazakhstan between January 2023 and September 2024.