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GDP Growth

Kazakhstan Economic Growth Reaches 4.5% in January–October 2026

Kazakhstan’s economy grew 4.5% in January–October 2026, down from 6.4% in the same period last year. Manufacturing and construction were among the main drivers of growth despite a sharp decline in oil production, while household incomes barely increased after inflation in the first half of the year. The latest preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) figures were released by the Ministry of National Economy, citing the Bureau of National Statistics. Growth was slightly higher than the 4.2% recorded in January–September. The non-resource sector expanded by an estimated 5.6% in the first 10 months, while oil production fell 8.3% year over year in January–September. Manufacturing growth accelerated from 8.6% in the first nine months to 9.3% in January–October. Pharmaceutical production rose 50.9% year over year, machinery output increased 22.2%, and food production grew 13%. Overall industrial output was up 3.5%. Construction expanded 13.1%, making it one of the fastest-growing sectors. Transportation and warehousing increased 7.5%, trade grew 6.2%, and agriculture rose 5.2%. Communications services expanded 4.9%. Construction, manufacturing, transportation, and trade together accounted for more than three-quarters of GDP growth in the first nine months, according to government figures. Fixed investment rose 7% over the same period, including an 18.2% increase in private investment. Household purchasing power showed little improvement, with real income per person rising just 0.1% in the first quarter and 0.7% in the second compared with the corresponding periods of 2025. Annual inflation eased to 9.2% in October from 9.3% in September, according to the statistics bureau. In the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s October household survey, respondents’ median estimate of inflation over the previous 12 months was 9%, while their median expectation for the next 12 months was 9.8%.

A formal business roundtable meeting between Kazakhstan and the United States is held in Washington, with delegates seated at a long table in front of a large blue backdrop displaying the两国 flags and event details.

U.S.-Kazakh Partnership

Kazakhstan Brings Largest Foreign Delegation to B20 as U.S. Firms Detail Industrial Expansion

Kazakhstan brought the largest foreign delegation to the B20 summit in Washington, U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Suzanne Clark said, as American executives outlined expanding industrial operations and new investment opportunities in the country. The B20 is the G20’s business engagement group. At a November 9 business roundtable, discussions ranged from PepsiCo's first locally manufactured Lay's potato chips and Wabtec's growing railway production capabilities to energy processing, AI infrastructure and critical minerals. Senior American and Kazakh officials emphasized the political support behind a commercial relationship built on decades of investment. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said strengthening relations with Kazakhstan and its Central Asian neighbors had been a priority since he entered office, alongside restoring the prominence of economic and commercial matters in American diplomacy. “I think President Tokayev is one of the most impressive world leaders,” Landau said, highlighting the Kazakh president's ability to speak with the leaders of China, Russia and the United States in their own languages. Landau said the region had historically received less attention in U.S. foreign policy than its strategic location and resources warranted. He also emphasized the unusually high level of engagement between Washington and Astana, describing the current relationship as producing results rarely seen in its 35-year history. Yerzhan Kazykhan, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's special representative for cooperation with the United States and honorary co-chair of the U.S.–Kazakhstan Business Council, said dialogue between Tokayev and President Donald Trump had given the relationship additional political momentum. “Our shared task is to translate this momentum into tangible results for our businesses,” he said. Ahead of Tokayev's planned participation in the G20 summit in Miami, Kazykhan identified advanced manufacturing, critical minerals processing and technology transfer as priorities for further cooperation. Manufacturing and Industrial Expansion “We have moved beyond oil and uranium,” said Kanat Sharlapayev, chairman of the presidium of Atameken, Kazakhstan's National Chamber of Entrepreneurs, pointing to PepsiCo and Wabtec as examples of the country's expanding manufacturing base. A PepsiCo representative reported that the company had recently produced its first bag of Lay's potato chips in Kazakhstan using locally grown potatoes. The milestone forms part of an investment that the representative valued at $360 million, in what PepsiCo expects to become one of its largest snack manufacturing facilities globally. The facility is expected to support 900 jobs when fully operational, with an official inauguration planned for April 2027. In railway manufacturing, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Transport Asel Zhanassova highlighted the progress of Kazakhstan's longstanding partnership with Wabtec, including the $4.2 billion agreement signed in September 2025 covering 300 freight locomotives and long-term servicing. Zhanassova said local production content exceeded 40% and more than 2,000 jobs had been created, including among Kazakh suppliers. Kazakhstan Temir Zholy Chairman Yelzhas Otynshiyev described the next stage of the partnership. Building on an existing engine remanufacturing and overhaul center in Astana, KTZ plans to begin engine production in Kazakhstan in 2027, with the objective of becoming a regional manufacturing and service center for Wabtec. Clay...

GDP Forecasts

Kazakhstan GDP Forecast Rises to Nearly $398 Billion

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Kazakhstan’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) at nearly $398 billion in 2026. The figure places the country 47th in a global ranking published by Visual Capitalist, based on the IMF’s October forecasts. The fund expects Kazakhstan’s economy to grow by 4.4% this year after adjusting for inflation, compared with global growth of 3.1%. An earlier ranking, published in January, placed Kazakhstan 50th, with projected GDP of about $320 billion for 2026. The tenge, Kazakhstan’s currency, gained approximately 18% against the dollar over the year to October 28. A stronger tenge increases the dollar value of Kazakhstan’s economy, even without an equivalent increase in actual production. Kazakhstan remains Central Asia’s largest economy by nominal GDP. Uzbekistan, the region’s second-largest economy, is projected to have a GDP of $178.17 billion in 2026. Turkmenistan’s projected GDP is about $83 billion, Kyrgyzstan’s is $26.69 billion, and Tajikistan’s is $21.11 billion. Kazakhstan’s nominal GDP per person is projected to exceed $19,000 in 2026. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of National Economy estimates that the economy grew by 4.2% in January–September 2026, with the non-resource sector expanding by 5.4%. Construction output increased by 11.5%, while manufacturing, transportation, and trade also grew. Oil production, meanwhile, fell by 8.3%. According to the ministry’s October 13 report, manufacturing accounted for 14.1% of GDP in the first half of the year. Machinery production grew by 22.8% in January–September, while chemicals and pharmaceuticals also recorded strong growth. The IMF expects Kazakhstan’s real economic growth to accelerate to 4.9% in 2027.

AI Adoption

Industrial AI Reaches Kazakhstan’s Factories, but Many Projects Remain Experimental

Artificial intelligence (AI) is already monitoring mining trucks, production lines, and workplace safety at industrial sites in Kazakhstan. Yet a gap remains between a successful experiment and technology that works every day at a factory or mine. Closing it was one of the main issues discussed at the third meeting of Kazakhstan’s Council for the Development of Artificial Intelligence. A study by the British Chamber of Commerce in Kazakhstan, with contributions from Narxoz University and the Kazakh-British Technical University, found that 58.8% of AI projects among the industrial companies surveyed remained at the pilot stage, with none reaching full-scale deployment. The sample was small, comprising just 17 executives and specialists from several industrial sectors, so its findings cannot be extrapolated to Kazakhstan’s entire industrial sector. The responses illustrate the problems companies encounter after their first experiments with AI. Respondents most often cited a shortage of in-house specialists and expertise, followed by implementation costs. Yet 70.6% of completed pilots cost less than $50,000. The greater expense can come when the technology has to be integrated with existing equipment, data, and production processes. The government’s 2025–26 roadmap covers 41 projects at 11 major industrial enterprises. They include Qarmet, which operates the country’s largest steelworks in Temirtau; copper producers Kazakhmys and KAZ Minerals; gold producer Solidcore Eurasia; and mining and metals group Eurasian Resources Group (ERG). Industrial AI Acceleration has become one testing ground for deploying artificial intelligence directly at industrial sites. More than 12 companies submitted over 140 problems for AI teams to tackle, including equipment maintenance, safety, and procurement. Of 24 pilot projects initiated under the program, seven have reached industrial operation. Some technologies have already made it onto factory floors and into mines. ERG uses its manufacturing execution system, ERG MES, to monitor production in real time. It collects data on output, technological processes, production losses, and equipment downtime. The Ministry of Industry and Construction estimates the economic effect at around 1.5 billion tenge, or approximately $3.39 million at the official exchange rate on October 2. At KAZ Minerals’ Aktogay copper mine in eastern Kazakhstan, AI is used to manage the movement of mining trucks. Solidcore Eurasia uses the technology in medical examinations for employees working in hazardous production environments. The Council also discussed the bureaucratic obstacles that can hold up successful projects. After a pilot, companies can face further approvals and testing, along with procurement and regulatory hurdles. Tokayev proposed avoiding the entire testing cycle again when a solution has already demonstrated results at a company operating under similar production conditions. The government and Samruk-Kazyna are to select companies for wider AI deployment. Samruk-Kazyna is Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund, which manages state assets across major industries. The government also wants production workers to identify problems for developers. Engineers and operators see equipment downtime, product defects, and wasted materials firsthand. These problems are to form a list of practical challenges for technology companies and researchers. The list is intended in part to guide Qazaq AI Research University, a specialized university...

Labor force

Kazakhstan’s Factory Expansion Faces a Skilled Labor Shortage

Kazakhstan plans to create tens of thousands of jobs at new factories, but lacks qualified workers. Around 200 industrial projects are scheduled to be launched in 2026, followed by new metallurgical, engineering, and chemical plants. The facilities can be built within a few years, but training the staff needed to operate them may take significantly longer. A 2025 estimate suggested the shortage of qualified workers in manufacturing, construction, and engineering-related fields could exceed 100,000. The projects planned for 2026 are worth a combined 1.7 trillion tenge, or approximately $3.6 billion, and are expected to create around 18,000 permanent jobs. The next wave of projects will require several thousand more workers. Seven new projects in ferrous metallurgy are planned for 2027–2028, creating more than 3,500 permanent jobs. Another six facilities in non-ferrous metallurgy are planned for the same period, creating more than 800 jobs. Behind those plans are facilities producing steel and ferroalloys, copper and aluminum products, trucks, road machinery, and chemicals. Kazakhstan is seeking to process more of its own raw materials domestically and export products with higher added value. For an economy that remains heavily dependent on oil, metals, and other commodities, the success of that policy will shape its prospects for further diversification. The Asian Development Bank has identified higher productivity and stronger human capital as important conditions for that transition. In March 2025, National Engineering Academy President Bakytzhan Zhumagulov said the shortage of qualified workers in construction, manufacturing, engineering and technical fields could exceed 100,000. Meanwhile, in April 2026, Science and Higher Education Minister Sayasat Nurbek warned that the gap between the specialists being trained and the needs of the economy was widening. The Ministry of Labor has pointed to another imbalance: on the Enbek electronic labor exchange in May 2025, demand for workers with mid-level qualifications exceeded supply by 16%. Tomorrow’s Factories and Today’s Labor Market The government is already trying to reshape vocational education. In 2025, 70% of state-funded college places were allocated to technical fields, including mechanical engineering, transportation, energy, IT, and construction. Kazakhstan operates a system for forecasting the economy’s labor needs, estimating demand by occupation, region, and industry several years ahead, taking into account both newly created jobs and the need to replace people leaving the labor market. These projections are intended to guide state-funded education and vocational training. The potential scale of future demand is substantial. A forecast published in 2025 estimated that the economy would require around 1.6 million workers over the following six years, including about 900,000 people with technical and vocational education. Demand for workers in skilled trades alone was estimated at more than 400,000. Construction, agriculture, and manufacturing were expected to be among the main employers. Yet the current labor market still reflects a fairly traditional pattern. Kazakhstan has a short-term vocational training program for unemployed people. Employers submit requests for the specialists they need and guarantee employment, while the state pays for their training. More than 11 billion tenge, approximately $23 million, was allocated to the...

GDP Forecast

Kazakhstan Forecasts GDP Growth Above 5% in 2027–2029

Kazakhstan’s government has approved a socioeconomic development forecast and draft republican budget for 2027–2029, projecting average annual real GDP growth above 5% as manufacturing, agriculture, construction, transport, and other non-oil sectors expand. The forecast was prepared with reference to the global economic outlook and conditions in external markets. The accompanying draft budget, approved at the same government meeting chaired by Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, will be submitted to the Kurultai for consideration. Under the government’s baseline scenario, real GDP is projected to grow by 5.3% in 2027, 5.5% in 2028, and 5.4% in 2029. Nominal GDP is expected to rise from KZT 199.3 trillion in 2027 to KZT 245 trillion in 2029, an increase of almost 23%. Non-oil sectors are expected to provide the main impetus for expansion. Manufacturing output is forecast to grow by an average of 5.9% a year, substantially faster than the 2% projected for mining. Metallurgy, mechanical engineering, construction materials, chemicals, and food production are expected to make the largest contributions. Oil exports and the broader mining sector will remain central to the economy and public finances, but the forecast assumes that manufacturing and other non-oil activities will account for a larger share of new output. TCA reported in July that Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 4.1% in the first half of 2026 despite an 8.4% decline in oil production. The non-oil economy grew by more than 5%, with manufacturing, construction, trade, and transport accounting for more than 80% of overall growth. Manufacturing output increased by 9.8%. Agriculture is expected to expand by at least 5% annually. Construction is projected to remain among the fastest-growing sectors, increasing by 16% in 2027 and 17.3% in 2029. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin said the expansion would be supported by transport and logistics, energy, and water projects, together with the modernization of housing, utilities, and social infrastructure. The services sector is also expected to maintain strong momentum. Trade is forecast to expand by an average of 5.7% annually, information and communications by 9.2%, and transport and warehousing by 10.4%. The transport forecast builds on rapid expansion along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, or Middle Corridor. Annual freight volumes through Kazakhstan have risen from 0.8 million to 4.5 million tons over seven years, while delivery times fell from approximately 28–32 days to 13–17 days. The route still carries substantially less cargo than established northern corridors, and participating countries continue to work on remaining bottlenecks. Infrastructure spending is a central element of the draft budget, but Bektenov said it must be accompanied by stronger financial discipline. Under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s instructions, accelerated construction of infrastructure and social facilities has been designated as a principal budget priority. Government bodies were told to meet the approved economic targets, while administrators of budget programs were directed to increase the return on every tenge spent. The headline budget deficit is forecast to fall from 2.3% of GDP in 2027 to just 0.4% in 2029. However, the non-oil deficit, which measures the...