Russian Exodus and Return: Kazakhstan Feels the Impact as War Migrants Come and Go
The mass migration of Russians following the war in Ukraine has significantly impacted Kazakhstan’s economy and social fabric. However, many Russian citizens who initially sought refuge in the country are now returning home. Adapting to Post-Soviet Countries Proves Challenging According to independent Russian demographer Alexei Raksha, Russian migrants who left their homeland after February 2022 are more likely to return from Kazakhstan than from other countries. An estimated 800,000-900,000 people left Russia following the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the first wave coming after the military campaign was launched, and the second following the announcement of a partial mobilization in September 2022, when queues on the Russian side of the Verkhny Lars border with Georgia stretched for twenty miles. Reports of graft were rife, with the police blocking the roads and demanding bribes from those attempting to flee. Free seats in cars were being sold for $1,000, with border guards charging $200 for an exit stamp. [caption id="attachment_28574" align="aligncenter" width="780"] The Georgian side of the Verkhny Lars border with Russia; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] This wave of migration left Russia with a labor shortage of some 4.8 million people. The choice of destination was often influenced by visa-free entry, ease of legalization, and the presence of acquaintances. Prices in Tbilisi skyrocketed in 2022-23, leading to a surge in evictions, resentment, and understandable fears given previous invasions that Russia would use the new diaspora as a pretext for another incursion. A similar situation occurred in Yerevan. "With the influx of Russians, rents in Yerevan doubled and, in some cases, even tripled," Ani Khachataryan, an environmental activist told TCA. Migration continued in 2023, but the number of returnees also increased. Around 45% of those fleeing Russia initially went to Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Armenia, though by 2023, that share had dropped to 32%. As of July 2024, at least 650,000 people who left Russia after it invaded Ukraine were estimated to still be abroad. Migration routes were fluid: 64% of Russians stayed in their first destination, while 26% moved further, often to the European Union, the United Kingdom, or Switzerland. About 10% returned to Russia. Among those who relocated, nearly half changed countries more than once, with Serbia emerging as a new hub. Many continued working remotely for Russian companies or found employment with Western firms. Most returnees came from the former Soviet republics, with Kazakhstan leading the trend - one in five Russian emigrants in Kazakhstan eventually went back. By contrast, those who settled in the European Union, the United States, Canada, and Israel were far less likely to return. Raksha attributes this pattern to economic factors: Russians who moved to post-Soviet states, including Kazakhstan, tended to be middle-income earners. Meanwhile, wealthier Russians, who had jobs with Western firms or owned businesses were more likely to relocate to the U.S. or Europe. A Temporary Relocation In September 2022, following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decree on partial mobilization, Russian migrants surged into Kazakhstan. Long queues formed at border crossings, and some fleeing men abandoned their...
