Migration Trends - The Times Of Central Asia

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Tajik Government Seeks New Destinations for Labor Migrants

Tajikistan is intensifying international cooperation in the field of labor migration. According to the Ministry of Labor, Migration, and Employment, the country signed dozens of agreements in the first half of 2025 aimed at simplifying and legalizing the overseas employment of its citizens. However, actual employment figures continue to lag behind the government’s ambitious declarations. Expanding Employment Opportunities At a mid-year press conference, the ministry reported that Tajikistan currently holds 37 international agreements with 15 countries, 13 of which specifically address labor migration and are under implementation. Key partners include Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, South Korea, and Japan. Negotiations are also underway on nine new agreements with countries such as Georgia, Poland, Serbia, Saudi Arabia, and Croatia. Official data show that 9,478 Tajik citizens found employment through 29 licensed organizations in the first half of 2025. Of those, 5,648 were assisted by the State Employment Agency. Despite appearing significant, these numbers represent only a fraction of the working-age population seeking jobs abroad. South Korea, for example, allocated 800 worker quotas for Tajikistan in 2025. Yet only 26 of 35 citizens trained under the Employment Permit System (EPS) passed the required exam. A new group is now in training for the next selection phase. Japan also ranks as a priority destination, but the volume remains low. Of 68 registered candidates, four have begun working, and eight have passed interviews, underscoring Japan’s high entry standards and limited intake. Key Partners: Russia and Saudi Arabia Russia remains Tajikistan’s principal labor migration partner. From January 28 to 31, officials from both countries held “substantive talks” in Moscow, addressing the training of specialists, new employment channels, and joint initiatives. More than 80 Russian companies have reportedly expressed interest in hiring Tajik workers, a figure that the ministry says reflects rising demand for labor from Tajikistan. Saudi Arabia is emerging as a new strategic partner. During a visit by a Tajik delegation, officials held talks with the Saudi Minister of Human Resources and with executives from Arco, a major HR outsourcing firm in the Middle East. Ambitious Goals, Limited Impact While the Ministry of Labor and Migration continues efforts to expand cooperation, protect migrants’ rights, and promote safe, legal employment abroad, progress remains uneven. Despite active diplomacy, the scale of organized labor migration is still limited. The real measure of success will be the implementation of these agreements, not their number. With millions of Tajik citizens still seeking employment overseas, building effective systems and improving workforce skills will require sustained effort, time, and investment.

Family

Declining Birth Rates in Central Asia Tied to Crisis in Reproductive Freedom

Birth rates across Europe and Central Asia are falling sharply, accompanied by aging populations and the migration of young people in search of better opportunities. In response, many governments have introduced financial incentives to encourage childbirth. However, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) warns in its State of World Population 2025 report that these measures address symptoms, not causes. The real issue, the report contends, is a crisis of reproductive freedom. The report, compiled in partnership with the polling agency YouGov, surveyed over 14,000 people across 14 countries, including Germany and Hungary. Its findings highlight a deep disconnect between people’s reproductive intentions and their lived realities: 32% reported experiencing an unplanned pregnancy, while 23% said they were unable to have children when they wanted. Among respondents over the age of 50, nearly one-third (31%) reported having fewer children than they had hoped. Economic insecurity emerged as the leading barrier to planned parenthood. Financial hardship was cited by 39% of respondents, followed by job instability (21%), lack of suitable housing (19%), and concerns over war, pandemics, or climate change (19%). Relationship-related issues were also significant: 14% said they lacked a partner, while 10%, mostly women, said their partners did not contribute enough at home. Although Central Asia continues to report fertility rates above the global average, the region is not immune to this trend. The report notes a steady decline in birth rates across much of Central Asia, including Kazakhstan, which is experiencing a multi-year downturn despite having one of the region’s higher fertility rates. UNFPA emphasizes that these patterns reflect underlying socio-economic constraints, not shifting cultural values. Rather than framing the issue as one of declining birth rates, UNFPA urges a shift in perspective from “why aren’t people having more children?” to “why can’t people have the families they want?” Reproductive freedom, the report argues, means being able to decide freely and securely when, and how many children to have. This requires stable employment, access to quality healthcare and housing, and genuine gender equality. UNFPA calls on governments, particularly in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, to focus less on raising fertility rates and more on protecting individual rights. Key policy recommendations include greater investment in public health systems, affordable housing, decent work opportunities, and stronger protections against violence and discrimination. “The real crisis is that millions of people can’t build the families they want, not because they don’t want children, but because they can’t afford to have them,” the report states. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, four out of five Central Asian countries are currently experiencing declining fertility. The exception is Uzbekistan, where birth rates remain high and continue to climb. In 2023, Uzbekistan recorded a fertility rate of 3.4 children per woman, the highest in the region. It was followed by Tajikistan (3.1), Kazakhstan (3.0), and Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan (each at 2.7). Uzbekistan also posted the region’s highest number of births last year, approximately 962,000, representing a 14% increase compared to 2020. By contrast, Kazakhstan registered...

Labor migrants

Kazakhstan’s Labor Migration Market: Balancing Interests Amid Rising Violations

Analysts at Finprom.kz have released a new overview of labor migration trends in Kazakhstan. According to the report, as of May 1, 2025, 14,300 foreign citizens were officially employed in the country, a 4% increase compared to the same period last year. Origins and Occupations The majority of migrant workers come from China, with 5,100 individuals, a 24.5% year-on-year increase. They are followed by workers from Uzbekistan (1,900), Turkey (1,100), and India (1,100). Foreign workers are primarily employed in construction, which accounts for 5,000 people, a 19.1% increase from the previous year. Other major sectors include agriculture, forestry, and fisheries (2,300 workers), and mining and manufacturing (1,300 workers in each). The most common job categories for foreign workers include specialists (4,400), heads of structural divisions (2,400), seasonal workers (2,300), skilled laborers (1,000), and intra-company transferees (3,600). Despite overall growth, the number of foreign specialists has declined by 21.5% compared to last year. The number of foreign nationals in management roles remains largely unchanged at 567, compared to 564 last year. Quotas, Oversight, and Violations The Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Population of the Republic of Kazakhstan sets annual quotas for hiring foreign labor. In 2024, the quota was capped at 22,000 workers, equivalent to 0.23% of the national workforce. However, violations related to labor migration are on the rise. Between January and May 2025, authorities recorded 1,600 administrative offenses, an increase of 10.1% compared to the same period in 2024. The highest number of violations occurred in the Karaganda region (224), followed by Astana (141), Shymkent (136), Almaty (110), and the Turkestan region (99). Those held administratively responsible included 238 individual entrepreneurs and 19 government officials. Authorities also fined 106 foreign nationals for breaches of migration laws. Total fines amounted to KZT 157.1 million ($303,000), up 22.6% from KZT 128.2 million a year earlier. Of this amount, KZT 130 million (82.7%) has already been collected.

Emigration from Kazakhstan Drops to Lowest Level in a Decade

Kazakhstan is witnessing a significant decline in emigration, reaching its lowest level in more than ten years, according to a study by analysts at Ranking.kz. The analysis, based on data from the National Statistics Bureau (NSB) of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan (ASPiR RK), highlights shifting demographic and economic patterns within the country. Statistical Overview and Long-Term Trends In the first four months of 2025, just 1,700 individuals left Kazakhstan for permanent residence abroad, a figure 2.8 times lower than the same period in 2024, when 4,800 people emigrated. Immigration also declined slightly, with 8,100 people entering Kazakhstan between January and April 2025, compared to 9,900 the previous year. Despite this, the migration balance remains positive, with more people arriving than leaving. A longer-term view underscores a consistent downward trend. In 2000, some 155,700 people emigrated. By 2024, this figure had dropped to 12,700. Notable upticks occurred during periods of heightened outflow, specifically between 2006-2008 and 2013-2019. However, for the past two years, Kazakhstan has maintained a positive migration balance. In 2024, 23,900 people immigrated to the country, nearly double the number who left. Key Destinations for Emigrants Most emigrants originate from Kazakhstan's northern and eastern regions. In 2024, 47.9% of those who left came from the Kostanay, Pavlodar, Abai, North Kazakhstan, and East Kazakhstan regions. Russia continues to be the primary destination, receiving 69% of all Kazakhstani emigrants. However, that number is sharply down: from January to March 2025, only 644 citizens moved to Russia, a 75.5% decline compared to the same period in 2024. Germany is the second most popular destination. In 2024, approximately 2,000 Kazakhstani citizens relocated there, but this too marked a significant decrease of 67.9%. Emigration to nearly all traditional destinations has declined, with the exception of Kyrgyzstan. While still relatively minor in scale (about 300 people annually), migration to Kyrgyzstan is gradually increasing, particularly from Kazakhstan’s southern regions. Causes Behind the Decline The United Nations Population Fund had previously forecast a drop in emigration, attributing it to Kazakhstan’s economic development, increased labor demand, and the diminishing pool of ethnic migrants. Demographic shifts also play a role. Population growth in southern Central Asian republics is contributing to a new influx of migrants into Kazakhstan. A 2024 public opinion survey conducted by the Demoscope Express Monitoring Bureau supports these trends. Among the 1,100 respondents, 78.5% said they had no plans to emigrate within the next two to three years. Only 6.9% expressed intent to leave, and 5.6% said they would like to emigrate but were currently unable to do so. The most commonly cited reasons for emigration include the desire for higher income (24.5%), better employment opportunities (14%), and a perceived lack of prospects within Kazakhstan (23.9%). Other motivations include studying abroad (11.7%), family reunification (2.6%), and returning to ancestral homelands (0.6%).

Migration

Lithuania to Review Migration Policy Toward Central Asian Countries

Lithuania is preparing to revise its migration policy toward citizens from Central Asian nations, citing growing concerns over radicalization risks. Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas announced the potential changes following a meeting with President Gitanas Nausėda, according to local media reports. “Unfortunately, it seems we need to recognize that people from some countries are more likely to become radicalized,” Paluckas told reporters. “We should consider adjusting our immigration policy and focus on bringing in skilled workers from countries that are closer to us culturally.” His remarks came shortly after the head of Lithuania’s State Security Department, Darius Jauniškis, revealed that approximately ten individuals from Central Asian countries had recently been denied entry over alleged ties to terrorist groups and concerns regarding radicalization. Jauniškis also warned of a broader trend, noting a rising risk of radicalization among migrants from both Central and South Asia. Paluckas added that Lithuania currently maintains numerous visa centers in countries whose cultural values may not align with those of Lithuania. “We are looking ahead and planning to update our migration policy so that it better reflects cultural closeness,” he said. Migration Trends from Central Asia Lithuania has experienced a significant increase in migration from Central Asia in recent years, prompting authorities to heighten security oversight. According to Lithuanian intelligence, the number of migrants from the region in 2024 was 14 times higher than in 2021. Despite this sharp rise, former Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė has urged caution in interpreting the figures, noting that the total number of migrants remains relatively small and not a cause for alarm. She attributed the increase in part to labor shortages, particularly after many Ukrainian men were conscripted for military service amid the ongoing war. As of October 2024, approximately 10,600 Uzbek nationals were residing in Lithuania, up from fewer than 1,000 in early 2022. Uzbeks now constitute the fourth-largest foreign community in the country. The number of Tajik citizens also rose significantly, from 5,700 to 7,200 in the first nine months of 2024 alone.

Kazakhstan’s Migration Trends: Growth in Skilled Labor, No Signs of Chinese Influx

A positive migration trend is emerging in Kazakhstan, with new data indicating a significant increase in net migration. In 2024, the country recorded a migration balance of 17,200 people, an 85% increase from the previous year. The gap between arrivals and departures expanded 2.3 times, with 30,000 people moving to Kazakhstan compared to 12,800 leaving the country. Experts from the Institute of Public Policy highlighted that Kazakhstan’s emigration rate has reached a historic low in contrast to outflows observed in other countries. In 2024, net migration losses were significantly higher in Georgia (-39,200), Israel (-18,200), Uzbekistan (-14,300), and Bulgaria (-9,200). Kazakhstan has seen a significant reduction in emigration. In the early 2000s, the annual outflow was around 289,000 people, but by 2024, this number had dropped to the aforementioned 12,800. Meanwhile, the inflow of migrants continues to rise. Last year, 12,200 people arrived from Uzbekistan, 8,100 from Russia, 2,000 from China, 1,400 from Mongolia, and 1,100 from Turkmenistan. Additionally, several hundred people from Turkey, Germany, Georgia, the United States, and South Korea also relocated to Kazakhstan. Currently, 13,000 foreign specialists are employed in Kazakhstan’s economy, including 5,300 in construction, 2,600 in industry, and 700 in agriculture. The country is also attracting international students, some of whom choose to stay after graduation, suggesting that Kazakhstan is on track to become a leading destination for skilled professionals in Central Asia and the CIS. In November 2023, Kazakhstan and China implemented a visa-free regime, allowing short-term travel between the two countries. However, this agreement does not grant Chinese citizens the right to work, study, or engage in missionary activities in Kazakhstan. Despite this, social media was flooded with concerns that millions of Chinese citizens would move to Kazakhstan, take jobs, and even claim territory. Experts dismissed these fears as unfounded, arguing that the visa-free regime was primarily designed to boost trade and tourism rather than encourage large-scale migration. More than a year and a half has passed since the agreement came into effect, and no such wave of migration has occurred. Political scientist Marat Shibutov criticized the initial panic, stating: “Those who spread fear about mass Chinese migration should look in the mirror because nothing has happened. The Chinese do not need to come here.” According to Shibutov, young and ambitious Chinese migrants prefer destinations such as Singapore, the United States, Europe, Canada, and Australia. Official data further debunks fears of Chinese migration. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the number of Chinese citizens moving to Kazakhstan permanently has been steadily decreasing since 2017. Most of those who do relocate are ethnic Kazakhs returning to their ancestral homeland, a process actively encouraged by the Kazakh government through state programs for repatriates, known as Kandas. The figures speak for themselves. In 2017, 3,000 Chinese citizens moved to Kazakhstan. By 2023, this number had dropped to just 416, of whom 398 were ethnic Kazakhs and only four were ethnic Chinese. Additionally, the vast majority of repatriated ethnic Kazakhs, 63.5%, came from Uzbekistan, while fewer than...