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Water Security

Opinion: Water Without a Guarantor – Central Asia’s Next Security Test

The Fourth High-Level International Conference on the International Decade for Action, “Water for Sustainable Development,“ taking place in Dushanbe on May 25-28, comes at a difficult moment. Central Asia's water problem is no longer only about environmental management; it is moving into the field of regional security. The conference agenda is familiar and necessary: climate, investment, innovation, transboundary cooperation, and the implementation of the Water Action Decade. The harder question is what happens outside the conference hall. Does Central Asia still have a credible way to stop water stress from becoming an interstate crisis? For decades, the region operated in a post-Soviet setting in which Moscow shaped many security calculations, even though it was never a formal water arbiter. That setting has weakened. Russia has not disappeared from Central Asia, and it still retains military, economic, and institutional leverage. But since 2022, its role as the assumed external stabilizer has become less convincing. The result is not a simple vacuum. It is a more awkward reality: a region with many outside actors, but no trusted water-security guarantor. The Old Backdrop Is Weakening Central Asia's water system was built around a Soviet-era division of functions. Upstream republics, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, controlled the mountains, reservoirs, and hydropower potential. Downstream republics, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, depended on seasonal water flows for agriculture, food security, and social stability. The Soviet system managed those tensions through central planning. After independence, cooperation became more fragile. Water, energy, borders, electricity, and agriculture were separated into national strategies. The rivers, however, remained transboundary. For many years, Russia remained the largest external power around which regional security calculations were organized. That did not make Moscow an effective water manager, but it helped shape the political environment. Today, that environment has changed. The CSTO did not prevent the Kyrgyz-Tajik border escalations of recent years. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan eventually reached a border agreement through direct negotiation rather than outside enforcement. That difference is not academic. Water disputes are rarely settled by conferences alone. They need trusted channels for mediation, compensation, and restraint when pressure builds. Central Asia has plenty of statements about cooperation. It has fewer tools for managing coercion when water becomes scarce. Three Pressure Points The region's water-security stress is already visible in three places. The first is Afghanistan's Qosh-Tepa Canal. The canal draws water from the Amu Darya, a river system critical for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Because Afghanistan was not part of the old Soviet water-allocation arrangements, the Taliban government is creating a new upstream reality outside the inherited regional framework. Estimates of the canal's downstream impact vary widely. Some analyses suggest it could divert between 15 and 30% of the Amu Darya's flow, depending on the completion timeline, irrigation efficiency, and water-management practices. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that reduced Amu Darya flows could indirectly affect Kazakhstan if Uzbekistan compensates by drawing more heavily on the Syr Darya. Carnegie has described the Qosh-Tepa as a serious test for regional water cooperation. The second pressure point...

Water Supply

Tajikistan Announces Water Infrastructure Drive, Urges Central Asia Cooperation

Tajikistan plans to provide at least 90% of its population with access to a centralized water supply by 2040, in a long-term infrastructure project that would reduce disparities in water services for urban and rural residents. President Emomali Rahmon spoke about Tajikistan’s water goals as well as wider collaboration in Central Asia during a speech at a Dushanbe conference that has drawn delegates from around the world for discussions on water scarcity. Tajikistan and the United Nations are co-hosting the four-day event, which ends on Thursday and is a prelude to a U.N. water conference in the United Arab Emirates in December. In 2023, the World Bank noted that Tajikistan has significant water resources, but said its infrastructure needed large-scale investment and about 55% of its population had access to “safely managed” water supplies. Only 24% of the Central Asian country’s rural population had piped water services, reflecting the big difference between urban and rural areas, according to the World Bank. It also said Tajikistan allocated a far smaller percentage of its annual budget to water supply and sanitation than in other countries in Europe and Central Asia. In his speech on Tuesday, Rahmon said “we are committed to ensuring access” to centralized water supply — a system that can promote quality of service quality and lower costs — for 90% of people in Tajikistan by 2040. “Through this measure, we are determined to guarantee access to clean drinking water for every citizen,” said the president, who has led the country for more than three decades. Tajikistan has more than 10 million people. Rahmon also described “transboundary cooperation in the water sector” as a priority and said Tajikistan will push for more dialogue in Central Asia on addressing critical water challenges. The International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea is an effective platform for promoting the “sustainable development” of water resources, according to the president. Other leaders in Central Asia have made similar comments about the fund, a collective effort to address the ecological disaster that followed the collapse of what was once one of the largest lakes in the world. The Aral Sea started shrinking decades ago after Soviet engineers diverted rivers for irrigation. Regional cooperation on water management has gained momentum in recent years, though some officials and analysts are still concerned that water shortages could stir tension between upstream and downstream countries in Central Asia.

Water Consumption

Central Asian Countries Rank Among World’s Highest Water Consumers

Several Central Asian countries rank among the world’s highest consumers of water per person, according to data compiled by the Worldometer portal. The figures, based on statistics from UN agencies including UNESCO and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), place Turkmenistan first globally, with Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan also in the top ten. The figures highlight a long-standing regional challenge: heavy dependence on water-intensive agriculture combined with aging irrigation systems that lose substantial amounts of water before it reaches fields. Turkmenistan leads the global ranking with daily water consumption of 15,445 liters per person. Uzbekistan ranks fourth worldwide at 4,778 liters per capita per day, followed by Tajikistan with 4,460 liters and Kyrgyzstan with 4,153 liters. Kazakhstan recorded the lowest level among Central Asian states, at 3,397 liters per person daily, though that still places it among relatively high-consuming countries internationally. In terms of total annual water use, Uzbekistan consumes the largest volume in the region at 54.56 billion cubic meters a year. It is followed by Turkmenistan with 27.9 billion cubic meters, Kazakhstan with 22.77 billion, Tajikistan with 11.49 billion, and Kyrgyzstan with around 8 billion cubic meters. Experts say agriculture explains much of the region’s high consumption. Globally, farming accounts for about 70% of freshwater use, compared with 20% for industry and 10% for households. In Central Asia, agriculture represents more than 80% of water consumption, while up to 40% of water is estimated to be lost through deteriorating irrigation infrastructure. The problem has become increasingly significant as freshwater demand rises worldwide. According to UN estimates, freshwater withdrawals have tripled over the past 50 years, while global demand continues to grow by around 64 billion cubic meters annually because of population growth, changing consumption patterns, energy production, and biofuel development. Several Central Asian governments have begun introducing reforms aimed at reducing water losses. In Uzbekistan, authorities joined the World Bank’s Water Forward initiative and announced plans to expand water-saving technologies across 4.1 million hectares of irrigated farmland while reducing irrigation losses by 25%. Kazakhstan has also faced recurring shortages. Seasonal water restrictions are regularly introduced in southern regions, and this year the government approved consumption limits because of expected shortages during the agricultural season. The issue is closely linked to energy production in upstream countries. Studies by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) indicate that more than 80% of electricity generation in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan comes from hydropower, creating a close link between irrigation needs and energy supply. Limited coordination over water releases and electricity generation has contributed to summer shortages in some years. The figures show the scale of the challenge for Central Asian governments seeking to reduce water losses and manage shared rivers more effectively.

World Bank

Launch of Kyrgyzstan Carbon Finance Initiative with World Bank Support

Kyrgyzstan has launched a new carbon finance initiative with support from the World Bank under the Innovative Finance for Resilient and Sustainable Energy Transition (iFIRST) program. The Kyrgyzstan carbon finance initiative forms part of broader efforts to modernize the country’s energy sector and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The project was discussed during consultations in Bishkek between Kyrgyz Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibrayev and World Bank Country Manager for Kyrgyzstan Hugh Riddell. “This project opens up new opportunities for attracting climate finance while advancing reforms in Kyrgyzstan’s energy sector,” Ibrayev said. Riddell said Kyrgyzstan is taking an important step toward implementing modern climate finance mechanisms, noting that the initiative will support the country’s transition to sustainable energy and integration into international carbon markets. According to Riddell, the project is only the second initiative of its kind globally, making Kyrgyzstan one of the first countries to implement such a mechanism. The project is supported by the Transformative Carbon Asset Facility (TCAF), a World Bank trust fund designed to help developing countries introduce market-based carbon pricing systems and attract private investment in low-carbon technologies. TCAF uses a hybrid financing model that combines climate finance with carbon market mechanisms. Payments are made only after greenhouse gas emission reductions are independently measured and verified. According to Kyrgyzstan’s Energy Ministry, the initiative will operate on a results-based financing model, meaning emission reductions must first be confirmed before financial compensation is released. Total funding for the project amounts to $50 million. Of that amount, $35 million represents core financing, while a further $15 million is available through optional financing mechanisms. The initiative also involves strengthening the institutional capacity of government agencies, creating a national greenhouse gas monitoring system, and establishing a national carbon unit registry. The program comes as Kyrgyzstan faces mounting environmental and energy challenges, particularly in Bishkek, which regularly ranks among the world’s most polluted cities during the winter months. Much of the capital’s air pollution is linked to the widespread use of coal for household heating, emissions from aging thermal power infrastructure, and growing vehicle traffic. Although Kyrgyzstan generates most of its electricity from hydropower, many households and businesses still rely heavily on coal and natural gas for heating during the colder seasons, especially when electricity shortages occur. Officials hope that expanding access to international climate finance will help modernize the country’s energy infrastructure, improve energy efficiency, and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. On the international stage, the project supports Kyrgyzstan’s commitments under the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming and reduce greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. Officials say the initiative will help accelerate reforms in Kyrgyzstan’s energy sector, strengthen the country’s climate policy framework, and expand access to international climate financing. In July 2025, Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers approved the Concept for Achieving Carbon Neutrality in the Kyrgyz Republic. The strategy outlines a phased transition toward a carbon-neutral economy, focusing on sectors including energy, transport, industry, agriculture, waste management, and forestry. Under the strategy, Kyrgyzstan has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050...

Emergency Response

Tajikistan to Gain Access to Emergency Financing Under New World Bank Project

The World Bank Group has approved a Contingent Emergency Response Project (CERP) for Tajikistan, providing the country with a financial instrument designed to enable the rapid reallocation of resources in the event of crises and emergencies. According to Tajikistan’s Ministry of Finance, the mechanism allows up to 10% of undisbursed funds from the World Bank’s current investment portfolio to be redirected annually to emergency needs. This gives the government additional flexibility in managing already allocated resources. The mechanism can be activated following an official declaration of a state of emergency. However, preparations for its use are carried out in advance. Experts note that CERP eliminates the need to seek new funding sources by enabling the rapid redeployment of existing funds. These resources can be used to procure food, water, and medical supplies, provide emergency services with necessary protective equipment, and support the agricultural sector. Assistance to households affected by crises is also provided. The mechanism forms part of the broader Rapid Response Option (RRO) framework, which allows governments to swiftly reallocate funds from ongoing projects to respond to emergencies. Tajikistan has already formally adopted this instrument. The Ministry of Finance also noted that CERP will operate in conjunction with the existing Tajikistan Preparedness and Resilience to Disasters Project. According to officials, the combined use of these instruments is expected to strengthen the country’s capacity to respond to potential risks.

Water Management

Uzbekistan Joins World Bank’s “Water Forward,” Aiming to Reach 1 Billion People by 2030

The World Bank Group has launched a new global platform aimed at improving water security, as Uzbekistan continues to expand cooperation with international financial institutions on infrastructure development. In a statement released on April 15, the World Bank announced the launch of “Water Forward,” an initiative developed in partnership with multilateral development banks and other institutions. The platform aims to improve access to reliable water services for 1 billion people by 2030 by aligning policy reforms, financing, and international partnerships. For Uzbekistan, where water management remains closely tied to agriculture and regional climate conditions, such initiatives come as the country continues to modernize its infrastructure and attract international financing. Earlier, on March 23, the World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors approved a $200 million project to upgrade transport infrastructure in Uzbekistan’s Surkhandarya region. According to the bank, the project is intended to improve connectivity, support economic activity, and enhance access to services in the southern part of the country. “Water is foundational to how economies function. When water systems work, farmers produce, businesses operate, and cities attract investment,” World Bank Group President Ajay Banga said. “Our task now is to align reform, financing, and partnerships to deliver reliable water services at scale.” According to the World Bank, around 4 billion people globally experience water scarcity, despite water supporting health systems, agriculture, energy production, and an estimated 1.7 billion jobs. Weak regulations, unclear policies, and underfunded utilities have slowed investment in many countries, particularly in developing economies. The new platform will focus on country-led “water compacts,” under which governments set priorities for reforms, strengthen institutions, and outline investment strategies for the sector. Fourteen countries have already announced such compacts, while additional agreements are expected. The initiative also brings together a wide range of financial institutions, including the Asian Development Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Islamic Development Bank, to coordinate funding and technical expertise. The World Bank said it aims to help deliver water security to 400 million people directly, with partner contributions expected to raise the total to over 1 billion.