World Bank - The Times Of Central Asia

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Rogun Dam

Tajikistan Ratifies $300 Million World Bank Grant for Rogun Dam

Tajikistan’s lower house of parliament has ratified a $300 million World Bank grant for the Rogun Hydropower Plant, providing fresh financing for the country’s largest infrastructure project. The agreement was approved on October 1. The funding comes from the International Development Association (IDA), the World Bank’s concessional financing arm for low-income countries. It will support continued construction and equipment installation, alongside safety and environmental safeguards and support for communities affected by resettlement. The World Bank approved the grant in June. Together with an earlier package, its approved financing for Rogun now totals $650 million. Tajikistan is also raising money from other international partners. Italy committed $150 million through its Climate Fund in July. The Asian Development Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, European Investment Bank, Islamic Development Bank, and Gulf development funds have also approved or expressed interest in supporting the project. The World Bank expects up to $3 billion in concessional financing to be mobilized for the project. By August, the dam had reached a height of about 190 meters. About 145 meters remain before it reaches its planned height of 335 meters, according to Italian construction group Webuild, one of the main contractors on the project. Two generating units are already producing electricity while construction continues, with their output expected to increase as the reservoir level rises. The World Bank currently puts planned capacity at 3,780 MW and expects the plant to be fully operational in 2033. It estimates annual generation at about 14.4 billion kWh. Rogun is intended to reduce Tajikistan’s chronic winter electricity shortages and increase power exports. The World Bank expects electricity from Rogun to be exported to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Hydropower could also help balance fluctuations in growing solar and wind generation across the region. Rogun is being built on the Vakhsh River, which joins the Panj to form the Amu Darya. Reservoir filling therefore also concerns downstream Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, where Amu Darya water is extensively used for agriculture. The environmental coalition Rivers without Boundaries has criticized the project’s impact assessments, arguing that they rely on outdated data and do not adequately account for climate change or the project’s wider effects across the basin. The World Bank says Tajikistan must comply with regional water-sharing arrangements. Reservoir filling is expected to proceed gradually through 2039, with compliance monitored throughout the project. In September, the World Bank also published new resettlement and livelihood restoration documents for communities affected by construction and the expanding reservoir. The Times of Central Asia previously reported on the expansion of international financing for Rogun after Italy committed $150 million to the project.

Trade Logistics

World Bank Says Middle Corridor Needs More Than $55 Billion by 2040

Developing a transport corridor linking China and Central Asia with Europe across the Caspian Sea will require more than $55 billion in investment through 2040. But the World Bank’s recent report, Integration: World-Class Trade Logistics Along the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, argues that infrastructure alone will not resolve the difficulties of moving freight across borders and between rail and ships. The route is the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, better known as the Middle Corridor. Trains typically travel from China through Kazakhstan to the Caspian ports of Aktau and Kuryk, where containers are transferred to ships. In Azerbaijan, they return to rail and continue through Georgia and Turkey toward Europe. The report covers nine countries with a combined population of nearly 200 million. With targeted investment, the World Bank estimates that trade volumes along the corridor could more than triple and travel times could be halved. GDP across those countries could be around 3.3% higher by 2040, with about 2 million additional jobs. If infrastructure investment is combined with reforms to make trade and transport more efficient, corridor volumes could quadruple compared with 2023 and travel times could fall by about two-thirds. At least $25 billion would be needed to relieve bottlenecks on railways and at Caspian ports. Another estimated $30.5 billion would improve connections between the main corridor and local economies, including terminals and digital systems. In February, the World Bank approved an $846 million guarantee from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, alongside a $564 million co-guarantee from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The package is intended to help mobilize $1.41 billion in long-term commercial financing for rail infrastructure along Kazakhstan’s section of the Middle Corridor. One of the principal projects is the roughly 322-kilometer Mointy-Kyzylzhar railway. The new line is expected to shorten the route by 149 kilometers and relieve pressure on the existing rail network. But hours saved on the Kazakh rail leg could still be lost waiting for a ship or crossing a border. The World Bank proposes a single digital corridor system built around a Transport, Transit, and Trade (T3) document. A carrier would enter cargo information once, allowing transport and customs authorities in different countries to use the same data. The bank also proposes a joint venture between railway and Caspian shipping operators. It would allow customers to buy a single container freight service for the route rather than arranging rail and maritime transport separately. During a September visit to Kazakhstan, World Customs Organization Secretary General Ian Saunders called for common international data standards and closer coordination between neighboring customs administrations. The Middle Corridor is often described as an alternative route for Chinese goods traveling to Europe. Its railways and ports also need to carry goods produced by Central Asia’s own economies. The five Central Asian countries exported $8.1 billion worth of goods to one another in January-July 2026, up 25.4% from a year earlier. The World Bank expects cheaper and more predictable transport to help local producers sell to neighboring countries and more distant...

Intra-regional trade

Central Asia Trade Rises 25% as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Dominate

Central Asian countries are trading more actively with one another, although the regional market continues to be dominated by its two largest economies, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. In January-July 2026, the five countries exported $8.1 billion worth of goods to their neighbors, up 25.4% from a year earlier. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan accounted for more than 80% of those shipments. Smaller bilateral routes have expanded as well. Uzbekistan’s trade with Kyrgyzstan increased by more than half, while trade with Tajikistan rose by 45%. Trade between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rose by a factor of 3.3 after several years of border closure and sharply reduced economic ties. In absolute terms, trade between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan remains the region’s largest bilateral flow. The figures were published by Uzbekistan’s Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR). Kazakhstan remains the region’s largest exporter. Over the seven-month period, it shipped $4.5 billion worth of goods to its neighbors, accounting for 55.9% of total intra-regional exports. Uzbekistan exported $2 billion, representing another 24.7%. Kazakhstan’s Central Asian neighbors still account for a relatively small share of the country’s overall foreign trade. In January-July, its total foreign trade turnover amounted to $87.75 billion. Central Asia accounted for around 6.7% of Kazakhstan’s total trade and 8.9% of its exports. By contrast, Kyrgyzstan’s trade volumes are much smaller, but neighboring markets are considerably more important to the country’s exporters, absorbing almost one-third of its exports. During the same period, Kyrgyzstan exported $523 million worth of goods to its neighbors and imported nearly $1.5 billion. Tajikistan buys considerably more from its neighbors than it sells to them. Its imports from Central Asia increased by 35% to $1.2 billion, while exports rose 6.2% to $209 million. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan account for around 94% of Tajikistan’s trade with the region. Figures reported by Turkmenistan’s trading partners show that the country exported $844 million worth of goods to neighboring countries. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan remain its main regional markets. The Eurasian Development Bank estimated that trade among Central Asian countries reached $12.3 billion in 2025, nearly double the 2020 level. Kazakhstan accounted for 54% of regional exports, as The Times of Central Asia previously reported. New transport and energy links are developing alongside intra-regional trade. In February, the World Bank approved an $846 million guarantee to mobilize $1.41 billion in commercial financing for a railway project in Kazakhstan. The project includes construction of the 201-mile Mointy-Kyzylzhar railway line on Kazakhstan’s section of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, or Middle Corridor. The new line is expected to shorten the route by 149 kilometers and relieve congestion on heavily used sections of the corridor. Central Asian countries are seeking closer integration of their power systems. In January, the World Bank approved the 10-year Regional Electricity Market Interconnectivity and Trade Program, with indicative financing of more than $1 billion, to establish Central Asia’s first regional electricity market. Cross-border electricity trade currently amounts to only around 3% of the region’s total electricity demand. In an earlier CERR analysis, researcher Ruslan Abaturov argued...

World Bank

World Bank Approves $20 Million Project to Boost Cross-Border Water Cooperation in Central Asia

The World Bank has announced a $20 million grant to strengthen transboundary water cooperation in Central Asia. The project is intended to improve management of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins as climate change, ageing infrastructure, and rising demand increase pressure on shared water resources. The funding, approved by the World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors, will support the Central Asia Water Efficiency Cooperation Project (CAWEC). It will be implemented by the Executive Committee of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (EC IFAS). EC IFAS’s current procurement notice identifies Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan as the participating states. According to the World Bank, limited cooperation over shared water and energy resources costs the region more than $4.5 billion a year. The bank says fragmented reservoir operations, weak data sharing, and ageing infrastructure prevent countries from capturing gains that better regional coordination could provide. The project will strengthen regional institutions, modernize water accounting and information systems, and improve data sharing. By 2031, EC IFAS is expected to prepare feasibility studies, technical documents, and environmental assessments for up to six transboundary water infrastructure projects involving at least two countries. The $20 million grant will not finance the construction of those projects. The preparatory work is intended to help governments attract further investment for irrigation modernization, water conservation and storage, and coordinated management of shared rivers. It will also support digital systems and equipment for the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. Up to 100 staff members from regional water organizations will receive training. The World Bank estimates that around 40 million people will benefit directly or indirectly from improved regional water management. The International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea was established in 1993 by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan to coordinate responses to the environmental and economic consequences of the Aral Sea disaster. The project concerns the Aral Sea basin’s two principal river systems. The Amu Darya is formed by headwaters rising mainly in the Pamirs and Hindu Kush and flows through or along Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The Syr Darya is fed by Tien Shan headwaters and crosses Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan. Both rivers historically fed the Aral Sea. The grant arrives amid severe regional water stress. Central Asian governments agreed 2026 allocations from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya in November 2025, but low reservoir levels and reduced inflows continue to threaten irrigation and energy production. Kazakhstan is pursuing a parallel effort to restore the North Aral Sea, the section of the former inland sea fed by the Syr Darya. In a ministry statement, Water Resources and Irrigation Minister Nurzhan Nurzhigitov said an additional 1.2 billion cubic meters of water should be directed to the North Aral by the end of 2026. According to the ministry, 1.4 billion cubic meters have been delivered since October 1, 2025. The North Aral now contains 23.5 billion cubic meters of water, while salinity has fallen by about 10% from a year earlier. Fishermen caught 4,200 metric...

Tajikistan Labor Market World Bank NEET Youth Tajik Women Youth Employment Women's Employment Gender inequality Labor Force Participation

Nearly Half of Young Women in Tajikistan Are Not Working or Studying, Survey Finds

New results from Tajikistan’s 2025 Labor Force Survey point to persistent structural weaknesses in the country’s labor market. Although the official unemployment rate remains relatively low, labor force participation is limited, particularly among women and young people. Of the country’s 6.87 million people aged 15–75, 3.02 million are in the labor force, producing a participation rate of 43.9%. The rate is 57.1% among men and 30.9% among women, a gap of 26.2 percentage points. The World Bank previously described Tajikistan’s labor force participation rate as the lowest in Central Asia. The official unemployment rate is 6.3%, but the survey’s expanded measure of labor underutilization presents a less favorable picture. This measure includes unemployed people and the potential labor force, as well as those experiencing time-related underemployment. On this basis, the rate rises to 11.7%. Among women, it approaches 14%. The survey also shows a gradual shift in where employed people live. The urban share of employment increased from 20% in 2004 to 28.4% in 2025, but 71.6% of employed people still live in rural areas. That figure demonstrates the rural concentration of employment, although it does not by itself show how many people work in agriculture. Separately, the World Bank estimates that agriculture employs more than 40% of Tajikistan’s labor force. The findings on young people are particularly stark. Among those aged 15–24, nearly 27% are not in education, employment or training (NEET). The rate is 40.1% among young women, compared with 13.2% among young men. The gender divide is even wider among those aged 15–29. In this group, 45% of women are neither employed nor pursuing education or training, compared with 12.4% of men. The figures suggest that Tajikistan’s main labor-market challenge is not fully captured by the conventional unemployment rate. People who are not working but are neither actively seeking employment nor immediately available to start work are generally not counted as unemployed. Low participation and high NEET rates therefore reveal pressures that the headline unemployment figure does not. Women and young people account for much of this unused labor potential. Expanding their access to employment will be especially important as the country’s working-age population grows. The World Bank estimates that about 600,000 young people will enter Tajikistan’s labor force over the coming decade and that the economy will need to generate approximately 1.4 million jobs during that period. It also describes the country’s economy as heavily dependent on the export of low-skilled labor and the remittances those workers send home. These concerns are reflected in the World Bank Group’s Country Partnership Framework for Tajikistan for fiscal years 2026–2032. The strategy prioritizes a better-skilled and healthier workforce, along with increased private investment. It also seeks to create more and better jobs and calls for measures to raise labor force participation, particularly among women and young people. In May, the World Bank approved the Tajikistan Women’s Economic Empowerment Project. The initiative is expected to create 3,450 jobs and help 850 women-owned or women-led businesses gain access to financial services. It...

Rogun Hydropower Plant

World Bank Approves New $300 Million Grant for Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Project

The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors has approved a second phase of financing for Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Plant, providing a $300 million grant to support construction of what is expected to become the largest power station in Central Asia. According to the World Bank, the new funding from the International Development Association will finance civil works, electromechanical equipment for electricity generation, project implementation support, and environmental and social measures, including resettlement assistance and livelihood restoration for affected households. The financing will also support reservoir monitoring, forecasting systems, and flood-risk management for downstream communities. The Rogun project is expected to generate 14,400 gigawatt-hours of renewable electricity annually, equivalent to roughly 60% of Tajikistan’s current electricity generation. The World Bank said the plant will help reduce the country’s chronic winter electricity shortages, improve access to reliable power for around 10 million people, create more than 30,000 direct and indirect jobs, and enable electricity exports to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. “In addition to reducing chronic power shortages, increased access to reliable electricity from the Rogun HPP will help power economic transformation and create jobs in Tajikistan,” said Najy Benhassine, the World Bank’s director for Central Asia. “By increasing the supply of clean electricity, this transformational project will help power homes, businesses, and public services, creating employment opportunities in the country.” The World Bank also said increased electricity exports would strengthen regional energy trade. “By facilitating electricity exports, the Rogun HPP will help revitalize the regional power market, allowing Central Asian countries to use their energy assets more efficiently,” said Charles Cormier, the bank’s director for infrastructure in Europe and Central Asia. “Enhanced regional connectivity is expected to reduce supply constraints in the region and contribute to improved reliability and energy security.” At the request of the government of Tajikistan, the World Bank is coordinating international support for the project through the Rogun Coordination Group. The group includes development partners that have approved or expressed interest in supporting the project, including the Asian Development Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, European Investment Bank, Islamic Development Bank, OPEC Fund, and several Gulf-based development funds. The latest financing comes as the project continues to face environmental scrutiny. Last year, The Times of Central Asia reported that the World Bank’s Inspection Panel had registered and reviewed a complaint concerning the bank’s involvement in the Rogun project. The complaint was submitted by the environmental coalition Rivers Without Boundaries on behalf of communities living downstream in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The complainants argued that the project’s environmental and social assessments were outdated and did not fully evaluate potential downstream impacts. Environmental groups warned that filling the Rogun reservoir could reduce water flow to the Amu Darya delta, potentially accelerating desertification, increasing soil salinity, and affecting livelihoods in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. In November 2025, environmental groups criticized the World Bank Board after it declined to authorize a full investigation, despite an Inspection Panel recommendation for a comprehensive review. The World Bank has said the project is subject to environmental and social safeguards,...