Oil and Gas - The Times Of Central Asia

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Oil and Gas

Kazakhstan Gains Weight in China’s Energy System

The newly extended U.S. waiver for Russian oil transit through Kazakhstan and the reported giant onshore hydrocarbon discovery in western Kazakhstan point in different directions, yet they belong in the same analytical frame. One concerns an existing flow that already reaches China through working infrastructure, while the other concerns a possible future source that has not yet reached the stage of commercially proven reserves. Together, they mark a change in Kazakhstan’s position. The country is increasingly important to China both as a corridor and as a possible larger upstream partner. The U.S. waiver now runs until March 19, 2027. Kazakhstan is not a giant direct oil supplier to China in the way that Russia or Saudi Arabia is; China’s import structure is broader. But Kazakh-origin oil shipments, Russian transit oil, and adjacent energy links now constitute a single, more complex relationship. According to official Chinese sources, oil imported from Kazakhstan enters mainly through the China-Kazakhstan crude pipeline. More Than Kazakhstan’s Own Barrels Kazakhstan-China Pipeline LLP reported that in 2024, the Atasu-Alashankou route carried 1.2 million tons of oil and 9.989 million tons of transit oil, against a design capacity of 20 million tons a year. Official Chinese figures sharpen the point. By the end of 2024, total cumulative throughput on the pipeline had reached 280 million tons, including 19.139 million tons in 2024, while cumulative crude imported from Kazakhstan was lower. Kazakhstan’s significance to China is therefore larger than Kazakhstan’s own volumes would suggest, because the route carries more than Kazakhstan’s own oil. A glance at Europe keeps that proportion straight. Eurostat reports that Kazakhstan supplied 12.7% of the European Union’s petroleum oil imports in 2025. The European External Action Service said that Kazakhstan accounted for 10.9% of EU oil imports in the first quarter of 2024. This made it the bloc’s third-largest supplier in that period, and a more important direct oil supplier to Europe than to China. The significance of Kazakhstan’s geographic proximity to China becomes clearer when one looks beyond crude oil. Kazakhstan is not only a direct oil supplier, but also a transit corridor for multiple China-bound energy flows. The Kazakhstan-China oil pipeline is one of China’s major import routes. At the same time, while Kazakhstan’s own gas exports to China remain limited due to rising domestic demand, gas from Turkmenistan and Russia both pass through its territory. Oil and gas do not form a single operational system, but together they show that China’s energy connection with Kazakhstan extends beyond one commodity and beyond Kazakhstan’s own barrels. The Source Side May Be Growing In this context, the reported discovery on the Zhylyoi carbonate platform makes a difference because it widens the source side of the relationship without changing present flows. According to public statements by KazMunayGas officials, the Karaton, Kazhygali, and Zhylyoi formation has resource potential of 4.7 billion metric tons of hydrocarbons, and the broader Zhylyoi carbonate reservoir may hold as much as 20 billion metric tons of oil equivalent. The field is onshore in...

Middle East Crisis

Central Asia Welcomes Ceasefire, Urges Talks as Energy Risks Persist

Central Asian governments have cautiously welcomed the two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, describing it as a necessary pause in a conflict that has already begun to affect regional stability, trade, and energy flows. Across the region, official statements struck a consistent balance: support for the truce, alongside calls to translate it quickly into negotiations rather than allow it to become a temporary pause in hostilities. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev described the agreement as a “ceasefire and truce” reached through international mediation, including efforts involving Pakistan’s leadership. According to the presidential press service, Tokayev said that “this agreement became possible due to the goodwill and wisdom of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, and the senior leadership of Iran, as well as all countries involved in the military conflict.” Tokayev went on to express his hope that the agreement would prove sustainable and contribute to global trade and economic stability. Uzbekistan’s Foreign Ministry described the ceasefire as an “important step toward de-escalating tensions” and stressed that it should serve as a pathway to a broader political settlement. Tashkent called for “all parties to exercise restraint, [and] refrain from actions that could further escalate the situation, warning that further escalation risks widening the conflict and undermining regional stability. The statement reaffirmed Uzbekistan's “unwavering position on the need to resolve conflicts exclusively by peaceful means in strict accordance with the principles of the Charter of the United Nations.” Tajikistan’s Foreign Ministry also welcomed the agreement, expressing hope that the ceasefire would open the way to a comprehensive and long-term peace. Dushanbe emphasized that the conflict has “no military solution and its continuation will only worsen the already difficult situation in the Middle East and cause colossal damage to all countries in the region.” The statement urged all parties to “abandon the use of force” and use political and diplomatic mechanisms in accordance with international law and the UN Charter. Kyrgyzstan’s Foreign Ministry said it “welcomes the achievement of a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East,” highlighting the role of Pakistan’s mediation efforts in reducing tensions. Bishkek reaffirmed that disputes must be resolved exclusively through political and diplomatic means on the basis of the UN Charter and international law, and expressed its “hope for achieving sustainable and long-term peace in the region.” Turkmenistan had not issued an official public statement on the ceasefire at the time of publication, in line with its longstanding policy of neutrality and cautious approach to external conflicts. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry also welcomed the “announced ceasefire” and praised the efforts of mediators who helped broker the agreement. Baku called on all parties to “engage in productive dialogue aimed at resolving existing problems and strengthening mutual trust” and signaled its readiness to “support initiatives aimed at strengthening lasting peace, security, and cooperation in the region.” The convergence in tone reflects more than diplomatic routine. The conflict has already spilled into Central Asia’s political and humanitarian agenda, prompting coordination on evacuations, aid deliveries, and contingency planning....

Oil and Gas

Major Hydrocarbon Field Discovered in Kazakhstan

A major hydrocarbon field has been discovered in Kazakhstan’s Atyrau Region, with reserves potentially comparable to those of the Kashagan oil field, the country’s largest oil source, according to Kurmangazy Iskaziyev, First Deputy Chairman of the Management Board of KazMunayGas. The site is located on the Zhylyoi Platform near the Caspian Sea coast. Its onshore location could significantly reduce development costs, although the deposits are believed to lie at considerable depths. Kashagan has long stood as the symbol of both Kazakhstan’s oil wealth and the technical difficulty of extracting it. The offshore field cemented the country’s position as a major crude producer, but also became known for cost overruns, delays, and the engineering challenges of operating in the northern Caspian. Any onshore discovery mentioned in the same breath immediately raises expectations that it could avoid some of those constraints while delivering comparable scale. Kashagan, discovered in the northern Caspian Sea, remains one of the largest oil fields found globally in recent decades. Its recoverable reserves are estimated at 9–13 billion barrels of oil, with gas reserves exceeding 1 trillion cubic meters. Development is carried out by the North Caspian Operating Company consortium, which includes Shell, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, Eni, China National Petroleum Corporation, Inpex, and KazMunayGas. Speaking at the Geoscience & Exploration Central Asia forum, Iskaziyev said the resource potential of the Zhylyoi Block, including Karaton, Kazhygali, and Zhylyoi, is estimated at 4.7 billion tons, with total geological potential reaching up to 20 billion tons of oil equivalent. At this stage, such figures reflect geological potential rather than proven, recoverable reserves. In Kazakhstan, as elsewhere, moving from estimate to production depends on depth, pressure, sulfur content, and the cost of drilling and processing. Large discoveries can take years to confirm commercially, particularly in high-pressure or technically complex formations. KazMunayGas has already begun exploration work. A well 5,750 meters deep has been drilled at the Karaton site, and five promising targets have been identified as part of a joint project with Tatneft. During testing at one of these sites, a gas flow containing hydrogen sulfide was recorded. The main challenge remains the depth of the deposits, which may reach up to 9 km. According to Iskaziyev, these conditions are comparable to projects undertaken by KazMunayGas’s Chinese partners, including Sinopec and China National Petroleum Corporation, where drilling depths can reach up to 11 km. The company plans to expand geological exploration into neighboring areas, including Kazhygali, and is negotiating subsoil use contracts. The timing is significant. Kazakhstan is under growing pressure to demonstrate that its oil sector can still deliver major new projects as existing fields mature. A large onshore discovery in Atyrau would reinforce the region’s role as the core of the country’s energy system and support efforts to sustain export volumes and investor interest. At the forum, a memorandum of understanding was also signed between KazMunayGas and BP on cooperation in geological exploration and the development of the Ustyurt Block in the Mangistau Region. The Times of Central Asia previously reported...

Kashagan

Kazakhstan Expands Kashagan Legal Fight as Arbitration and Claims Mount

For several years, Kazakhstan has been engaged in arbitration proceedings worth billions of dollars, many of which have been conducted behind closed doors. Recently, new details have emerged about one of the largest disputes, involving the North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC). The dispute stems from environmental violations identified during a 2022 inspection at the Kashagan field. Environmental authorities found that the operator, NCOC, had stored approximately 1.2 million tons of sulfur in excess of permitted limits. As a result, the company faced a fine of around $5 billion. Kashagan is one of the largest and most technically complex offshore oil fields ever discovered, with proven hydrocarbon reserves estimated at 4.65 billion tons. The consortium includes seven major international energy companies: KazMunayGas (16.88%); Eni (16.81%); Shell (16.81%); ExxonMobil (16.81%); TotalEnergies (16.81%); CNPC (8.33%); and INPEX Ltd (7.56%). A lawsuit was filed by all consortium members except KazMunayGas, Kazakhstan’s national oil company. The field has long been central to Kazakhstan’s oil production and relations with international investors. Kazakhstan’s interests in the Kashagan dispute are represented by the Ministry of Ecology and the Ministry of Justice. According to the Vice Minister of Justice, Daniel Vaisov, a trial court has already ruled in favor of the state. “A first-instance court has ruled in Kazakhstan, recognizing the state’s position as lawful. Six contractors — excluding KazMunayGas — filed an appeal in March,” Vaisov said. NCOC challenged the environmental inspection results. In June 2023, a court in Astana partially upheld the company’s claims. However, this was overturned in February 2024, when an appellate court ruled in favor of the government, confirming the inspection’s legality. Subsequent developments have further complicated the case. In August 2025, an Astana court overturned the environmental agency’s order, citing procedural violations. The case is once again under appeal. At the same time, the contractors have challenged the $5 billion fine through international arbitration. The proceedings are set to take place in Washington at the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), where the arbitral tribunal is currently being formed, Vaisov said. The case is being closely watched as a test of how far Kazakhstan is willing to push legal pressure on major Western energy investors. Separately, Kazakhstan is pursuing much larger claims against Kashagan consortium members under the production-sharing agreement. In May 2024, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy said claims against Kashagan project developers could reach up to $150 billion. Initially, the government sought $15 billion from NCOC. It later increased its claims by a further $138 billion, citing lost profits linked to oil volumes that investors had committed to supply to the state. The Ministry of Energy has described the dispute as purely commercial, relating to Kazakhstan’s rights under the production-sharing agreement. Officials maintain that the legal proceedings do not affect the investment standing of project participants. Separately, in January last year, an economic court in Astana ordered NCOC to pay 3.5 billion KZT (about $8 million) for excessive flaring of raw gas. In addition to Kashagan, Shell is involved in...

Fuel prices

Central Asia Avoids Fuel Shock as Global Pressures Build

Central Asia has so far avoided the immediate fuel shocks spreading across much of the world following the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran. There are no lines at gas stations, no visible shortages, and no signs of panic buying. But that stability sits within a rapidly tightening global market, where disruptions in Asia and policy responses in Europe are reshaping fuel flows in ways the region will struggle to avoid. Across Southeast Asia, governments are already taking precautionary steps. Some state agencies and private firms are shifting parts of their workforce to remote work to reduce fuel consumption and prepare for potential price spikes and logistics disruptions, while Thailand is preparing contingency measures, including possible fuel rationing. China, one of Asia’s largest suppliers of refined fuels, has moved to restrict exports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in an effort to prevent domestic shortages linked to the war. The move is expected to tighten supplies across Asia, especially for countries that rely on Chinese fuel imports. China supplied about one-third of Australia’s jet fuel last year, highlighting the wider regional impact, and roughly half of the Philippines’ and Bangladesh’s in 2024. Vietnam has already warned airlines to prepare for flight reductions in April due to the risk of shortages caused by these export restrictions. Indonesia is also imposing limits on fuel sales. Fuel-related pressures have begun to emerge in Europe as well. Poland has introduced tax measures aimed at reducing fuel prices, with the government saying this will lower prices for consumers. Slovenia, meanwhile, has introduced significant restrictions on fuel consumption. Under new rules, private motorists are limited to purchasing a maximum of 50 liters per day, while businesses and farmers may purchase up to 200 liters daily. The combined effect of war-driven energy shocks and renewed tariff barriers is raising global costs and adding pressure across trade, transport, and inflation. Against this backdrop, Central Asia’s apparent stability is misleading. It is highly unlikely that import-dependent states such as Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan will be as well protected as Kazakhstan, which may benefit in the short term from higher crude prices. Starting April 1, Russia is banning gasoline exports in an effort to stabilize its own domestic market. Russia is a key fuel supplier to Central Asia. However, according to assurances from the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, the temporary export ban will not affect supplies to Uzbekistan. Deliveries under intergovernmental agreements are expected to continue, ensuring that at least part of the region’s supply remains uninterrupted. In Kyrgyzstan, despite recent developments, fuel prices and supplies remain relatively stable. The government is considering lowering taxes or temporarily waiving excise duties for fuel importers should the crisis continue. Information from Turkmenistan is difficult to verify independently. Despite reports of fuel shortages at gas stations last year, official media are now indicating a significant increase in domestic gasoline production. The production plan for January-February 2026 was reportedly fulfilled at 122.7%, according to Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Guvancha...

Energy Project

Italy’s Eni Expands Energy Projects in Kazakhstan with Hybrid Power Plant

The Italian energy company Eni is accelerating the expansion of its projects in Kazakhstan. By the end of the year, the company plans to complete construction of a hybrid power plant in Zhanaozen, one of the country’s key oil and gas centers. The 247-MW project combines three energy sources: solar, wind, and gas generation. The approach is expected to reduce the carbon footprint while providing a more stable energy supply in a region where strategically important production assets are concentrated Construction is proceeding in stages. The first component is already operational. In September 2025, a solar power plant with 80,000 panels was commissioned. Full completion of the complex is scheduled for the end of 2026, following the launch of gas and wind generation facilities. According to the Ministry of Energy, the project is intended to strengthen energy security for major enterprises in the Mangistau region, including Ozenmunaygaz and the Kazakh Gas Processing Plant. In a region that regularly experiences power shortages, this is a significant development. The project was discussed during a meeting between Kazakhstan’s Minister of Energy Yerlan Akkenzhenov and Italy’s Ambassador to Kazakhstan Antonello De Riu. Italian companies are gradually expanding their presence in Kazakhstan’s energy sector, from upstream production to processing and power generation. Cooperation extends beyond electricity generation. In January 2026, QazaqGaz and Eni moved to the practical phase of exploration at the Kamenkovsky block in the Caspian Basin. Work is also continuing at the Yuzhny Shu-Sarysu and Bereke blocks. Another major initiative is the gas-chemical complex under construction in the Atyrau region. The polyethylene project, with a planned capacity of 1.25 million tons per year and an estimated cost of $7.5 billion, has already entered the construction phase. The project is being implemented by KMG PetroChem, with Italy’s MAIRE group (through its subsidiary Tecnimont) serving as a key contractor. At the same time, conventional power generation projects are advancing. Cooperation with Italian power engineering company Ansaldo Energia has enabled the installation of new gas turbines at Almaty CHPP-3, with equipment deliveries completed in January 2026. However, this expanding cooperation is taking place amid legal uncertainty. Earlier, Eni and Shell, partners in the development of the Karachaganak field, lost a key stage of arbitration proceedings in London and may be required to pay Kazakhstan between $2 billion and $4 billion. While this could affect future investment decisions, it has not so far slowed the growth of Italian companies’ activities in the country.