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Nursultan Nazarbayev

Old Kazakhstan in Retreat: The Fate of Nazarbayev’s Allies

Since early 2022, the influence of the so-called “Old Kazakhstan” - the political and business circle that once surrounded former President Nursultan Nazarbayev — has been steadily eroded. Institutions have been reshaped, loyalties tested, and the once-untouchable elite has found itself under unprecedented scrutiny. Yet the names of Nazarbayev and his closest allies still surface regularly in courtrooms, parliament debates, and media headlines. Are these prosecutions and investigations an attempt to build President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s vision of a “Fair Kazakhstan,” or do they mark a new phase of elite score-settling under the banner of reform? The Times of Central Asia examined the fortunes of six figures from Nazarbayev’s inner circle to trace the shifting balance of power. Nurbоl Nazarbayev Recent headlines have revived scrutiny of Nazarbayev's nephew Nurbоl Nazarbayev, the son of his late brother Bolat. Authorities have launched bankruptcy proceedings against him, citing debts of approximately 58 billion tenge ($107 million). His assets and bank accounts have been frozen, and he is subject to travel restrictions. Under the current law, Nurbоl will be barred from taking out loans for five years, registering as an individual entrepreneur, or conducting major financial transactions without notifying the relevant authorities. His assets may be liquidated to repay creditors, with the exception of his primary residence. Once listed as Kazakhstan’s 57th richest businessman by Forbes Kazakhstan, he held ownership stakes in Prime Capital Invest and Prime Capital Holding, was a co-owner of PLS Construction Company and PLS-TM, and the majority shareholder of the Almaty Heavy Machinery Plant. This legal action follows a parliamentary inquiry into a previously sealed court case initiated by the General Prosecutor’s Office. The court ordered the confiscation of assets worth 57 billion tenge ($105.5 million) and imposed a fine of 925 million tenge ($1.7 million), along with penalties totaling 230.4 million tenge ($425,000). Members of parliament, Rinat Zaitov and Ermurat Bapi, have both demanded transparency in the case. Zaitov called for a comprehensive audit of Nurbоl’s assets, including those linked to the Altyn Orda market and land plots in Almaty and its surrounding areas. Shortly afterward, Bapi echoed the call, referencing a complaint from a Karaganda businessman who claimed his company was seized in a raid involving Nazarbayev’s circle. Bapi criticized law enforcement for closing the case, calling it “a betrayal of the President’s vision of a Fair Kazakhstan.” Zhomart Ertayev Zhomart Ertayev, a flamboyant banker once sentenced to 11 years for embezzling 144 billion tenge ($266 million) from Bank RBK, was unexpectedly released earlier this year under an amnesty, according to the Committee of the Penal System. However, a month later, parliament deputy Abzal Kuspan announced that the court’s decision had been overturned, and a formal appeal to the Prosecutor General’s Office led to Ertayev’s re-arrest. Ertayev previously held refugee status and a Russian residence permit, both of which were revoked after Kazakhstan issued an international warrant for his arrest. Kairat Boranbayev Kairat Boranbayev, a prominent businessman and former in-law of the Nazarbayev family, was arrested in 2022 and...

Reshuffle

Japarov and Tokayev’s High-Level Reshuffles Usher in a New Political Season

Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan recently witnessed high-level political developments that drew attention beyond their borders. In Kyrgyzstan, the national parliament self-dissolved, while Kazakhstan underwent a series of administrative reshuffles. Though both events were driven by reform-oriented policies, observers have offered sharply contrasting interpretations. In Kyrgyzstan, the initiative to dissolve the Jogorku Kenesh (parliament) was led by a group of 32 deputies headed by Speaker Nurlanbek Turgunbek uulu. They cited logistical and financial concerns over the proximity of the next parliamentary and presidential elections, scheduled for November 2026 and January 2027, respectively. Holding two major elections in such a short span, they argued, would pose political and economic challenges. As a result, early parliamentary elections will now take place on November 30, under revised electoral rules. The new system divides the country into 30 constituencies, each electing three deputies. Political parties may nominate only one candidate per district, and the overall number of deputies will remain at 90. However, the majority of seats are now expected to go to independents, reducing the dominance of political parties in the electoral process. Some Kazakh observers, long accustomed to viewing Kyrgyzstan as a “democratic island” in the region, interpreted these changes as a move toward greater political openness. Former diplomat and public figure Kazbek Beysembayev contrasted Kyrgyzstan’s reforms with Kazakhstan’s political trajectory, where authorities are reportedly planning to eliminate single-mandate districts in favor of a fully party-based electoral system. He warned this would further consolidate the ruling party’s dominance. “Such a move might be acceptable if laws on political party registration had first been liberalized. But that hasn’t happened,” Beysembayev argued. However, not all analysts share this optimistic view. Central Asia expert Arkady Dubnov sees the Kyrgyz move as a calculated maneuver by the ruling elite. He argues that a political duumvirate, composed of President Sadyr Japarov and State Committee for National Security (SCNS) chief Kamchybek Tashiev, has increasingly consolidated control. According to Dubnov, the early elections are designed to cement this grip on power. “By extending the gap between the parliamentary and presidential elections to 14 months, the authorities are creating space for a politically engineered campaign,” Dubnov explained. “This may pave the way for General Tashiev’s eventual rise to the presidency. His image as the real power broker, from resolving the border conflict with Tajikistan to renaming his hometown Jalal-Abad to Manas, has been solidified. President Japarov would likely retain influence within a reconfigured leadership structure.” In Kazakhstan, meanwhile, administrative reshuffles have continued, drawing significant attention, particularly the replacement of Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu with seasoned diplomat Yermek Kosherbayev. The change followed speculation in early September that Nurtleu had been detained by the National Security Committee, a claim that proved false but nevertheless added intrigue to his removal from the Foreign Ministry. He has since been appointed presidential aide for international investment and trade cooperation. Political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev acknowledged that this role is technically a demotion but argued it still reflects political trust. “Tokayev doesn’t typically reappoint officials who have committed serious...

SCO Summit

Opinion: Victory Day Parade Puts China’s Military Might and Alliances on Full Display

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit coincided with China’s lavish commemorations of the "80th anniversary of victory in the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the broader World Anti-Fascist War." The culminating moment, a grand military parade, was followed by a formal reception hosted by President Xi Jinping for visiting foreign dignitaries. All five Central Asian heads of state attended the parade. As the summit concluded, Xi seized the opportunity to issue a pointed warning to the West, particularly the United States and President Donald Trump, who had made it clear that he was closely following events in Tianjin and Beijing. In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote, "Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un as you conspire against the United States of America." Kim Jong Un’s high-profile visit to Beijing, including a prolonged meeting with Putin, signaled the emergence of a visible military alignment between North Korea and Russia. This visit served as a strategic complement to China's Victory Day display of military might. [caption id="attachment_35739" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: president.uz[/caption] For the first time, China publicly exhibited components of its strategic nuclear triad: the air-launched Jinglei1 missile, submarine-launched Julang3, and land-based ICBMs such as the Dongfeng61 and Dongfeng31 (and reportedly the DF5C). Analysts saw this as a deliberate signal to the U.S., regional powers like India and Russia, and potential international arms buyers, positioning China as a formidable strategic actor. Also on display were China’s anti-drone “triad”, missile-gun systems, high-energy lasers, and high-power microwave weapons, highlighting advances in counter-drone technology. Additionally, the parade showcased hypersonic and cruise missiles, unmanned aerial and underwater systems, and even robotic dog units, demonstrating China’s futuristic military capabilities. While noting the parade's impressive visuals, analysts cautioned that the true readiness of many showcased systems, for example, torpedo drones or laser weapons, remains uncertain. [caption id="attachment_35741" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: president.uz[/caption] Diplomatically, the summit also reinforced Sino-Russian ties. Putin, who described relations with China as “unprecedentedly” close, and Xi signed over 20 bilateral agreements, including a major energy deal, Power of Siberia 2, a gas pipeline delivering 50 billion cubic metres annually to China via Mongolia. Meanwhile, China announced a trial visa-free entry policy for ordinary Russian passport holders, effective from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026, allowing visits up to 30 days for tourism, business, or family purposes. Together, the military spectacle and deepening diplomatic and people-to-people ties affirm Xi’s confidence as he prepares for crucial negotiations with President Trump, an unmistakable projection of strength and strategic resolve.

SCO Summit

Opinion: China’s Diplomatic Power Play Unfolds in Tianjin

On August 31, the next SCO Plus summit will begin in the Chinese city of Tianjin and run through to September 1. Judging by the list of participants, China, under Chairman Xi Jinping, is positioning itself to challenge the United States for influence over the global geopolitical agenda. As part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, Xi will host a formal banquet for the attending heads of state, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Xi is also scheduled to chair the 25th meeting of the SCO Council of Heads of State and lead the expanded SCO Plus session - the largest since the establishment of the organization - where he will deliver a keynote address. Clues to the themes of Xi’s speech can be found in the diverse array of leaders expected to attend. Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Liu Bin confirmed at a Beijing press conference that among the SCO member states, participants will include Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Several leaders from non-member states will also join, including Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan; Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh; Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev; Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto; and Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, whose participation suggests Ashgabat’s cautious but growing interest in regional dialogue. Also in attendance will be the prime ministers of Armenia (Nikol Pashinyan), Cambodia (Hun Manet), Nepal (Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli), Egypt (Mostafa Madbouly), Malaysia (Anwar Ibrahim), and Vietnam (Pham Minh Chinh). The summit will also host key international institutional leaders, including UN Secretary-General António Guterres; SCO Secretary-General Nurlan Yermekbayev; CIS Secretary-General Sergey Lebedev; ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn; CSTO Secretary-General Imangali Tasmagambetov; EAEU Chairman Bakytzhan Sagintayev; and AIIB President Zhou Ji. Kazakhstan will be prominently represented. In addition to President Tokayev, three high-profile Kazakhs mentioned above - Yermekbayev, Tasmagambetov, and Sagintayev - will attend in their capacities as heads of international organizations. Their presence signals Astana’s growing diplomatic weight and reflects the strategic outreach led by Tokayev, himself a former UN Deputy Secretary-General. This background likely contributes to the rapport between Kazakhstan and Guterres. The summit will also inevitably draw attention due to the presence of the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders, figures central to the ongoing realignment in the South Caucasus. Both Baku and Yerevan have increasingly distanced themselves from Moscow, favoring closer ties with Turkey and the United States. The recent peace agreement between Aliyev and Pashinyan, signed in the presence of President Trump, underscored the growing American role in the region and the diminishing influence of Russia. While Moscow appears willing to tolerate this shift, Tehran views it with deep concern, especially after its recent 12-day conflict with Israel. Russia, for its part, seems to be signaling disengagement from the region. Its silence in response to Baku and Yerevan’s Western overtures suggests strategic apathy, if not withdrawal. Beijing, of course, is...

opinion

“Where a Russian Soldier Treads, That’s Ours”: Kazakhstan in the Crosshairs of Putin’s Neo-Imperial Playbook

In June 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a chilling declaration at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum: ‘There’s an old rule – wherever a Russian soldier sets foot, that’s ours.’ Far from a metaphor, this line encapsulated the Kremlin’s evolving foreign policy doctrine. It is a doctrine where military occupation becomes territorial acquisition, and where presence becomes ownership. But this ideology did not appear overnight. It has been systematically constructed through years of rhetorical groundwork, beginning with Putin's 2014 remark at the Seliger Youth Forum: ‘Nursultan Nazarbayev created a state on territory where there had never been a state. The Kazakhs never had statehood.’ In 2021, speaking at a Moscow press conference, Putin went further, describing Kazakhstan as ‘a Russian-speaking country in the full sense of the word.’ These comments expose a geopolitical logic that fuses cultural affinity, historical denial, and military dominance. They form the pillars of what scholars like Marlene Laruelle and Timothy Snyder describe as Russia’s ‘narrative imperialism’: the use of historical revisionism and linguistic hegemony to delegitimize the sovereignty of neighboring states. Nowhere is this doctrine more clearly manifest than in the cases of Ukraine and Kazakhstan. In Ukraine, the justification for annexing Crimea in 2014 and launching a full-scale invasion in 2022 relied heavily on the protection of Russian-speaking populations and claims of historical unity. In Kazakhstan, the groundwork is rhetorical – but eerily similar. In 2014, Putin reversed Nikita Khrushchev’s legacy by annexing Crimea, which Khrushchev had transferred to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954. At the same time, Kremlin-aligned voices began revisiting Khrushchev’s failed plan to remove five northern regions of Kazakhstan to form Russian 'Virgin Lands'. This was not a mere administrative reform: the plan involved transferring the fertile, Slavic-populated regions of Akmolinsk, Kostanay, Pavlodar, North Kazakhstan, and East Kazakhstan regions from the Kazakh SSR to the Russian SFSR. The objective was both economic and political -- to consolidate agricultural output under Moscow's direct jurisdiction and reduce the autonomy of the Kazakh republic by undermining its territorial coherence and ethnic composition. These areas were the backbone of Khrushchev’s Virgin Lands Campaign and held great strategic value. The proposal sparked resistance from within the Kazakh leadership, most notably from Premier Zhumabek Tashenov, who openly opposed the Kremlin's intentions. As a result of his opposition, he was dismissed from his position, but he succeeded in preserving Kazakh territorial integrity. These northern regions, like Crimea, are demographically significant: they are home to a large ethnic Russian population, many of whom speak only Russian, consume Russian media, and express nostalgia for Soviet-era unity. Cities like Petropavlovsk, where Russians still outnumber Kazakhs, mirror the pre-2014 situation in Donetsk and Luhansk. In 2023, a group calling itself the ‘People’s Council of Workers’ in Petropavlovsk released a video declaring independence based on the 1937 Constitution of the Kazakh SSR. Prosecuted for inciting separatism, they nonetheless reflected growing latent support for Russian intervention. Even earlier, in 2014, Russian ultra-nationalist Eduard Limonov made headlines by urging Russia to annex Northern Kazakhstan during...

opinion

The Rise of Regionalism in Central Asia: From Divisions to Dialogue

In recent years, Central Asia has undergone a remarkable transformation — from a region historically marked by political divisions and competing national interests, to one increasingly characterised by cooperation and dialogue. Today, Central Asian countries are exploring the idea of strategic autonomy and greater regional solidarity, not as an abstract ambition, but as a practical response to the shared challenges and opportunities they have. A key institutional vehicle for this evolving cooperation is the Consultative Meeting of Central Asian Leaders. Unlike formal international summits, this forum allows for open and informal dialogue between heads of state. It is valued precisely because it enables leaders to discuss sensitive regional matters candidly, without the constraints of protocol. The momentum for regional cooperation is clearly growing, and this forum has become a symbol of Central Asia’s desire to take its future into its own hands. Beyond this, the countries of Central Asia cooperate through platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Organisation of Turkic States, both of which offer multilateral mechanisms for addressing regional security, economic integration, and cultural exchange. Importantly, what was once a region of competing national agendas is now evolving into a space of shared strategic vision, including coordinated positions in international forums such as the United Nations. Additionally, in recent years, the foreign policies of Central Asian countries have demonstrated more and more coordination and regional alignment, especially in their engagement with external partners. This shift is reflected in the emergence of multilateral dialogue formats between Central Asia and key global actors. Notably, the European Union–Central Asia Summit, most recently held in Samarkand in 2025, underlined a shared commitment to regional connectivity, sustainable development, and mutual security. Similar formats have been institutionalised with other global players, such as the C5+1 format with the United States, focusing on green transition, economic reforms, and regional security. Germany has also advanced a Central Asia–Germany high-level dialogue, including the “Berlin Initiative,” aimed at promoting green energy, vocational training, and the rule of law. Meanwhile, Italy has launched its Central Asia + Italy format as part of its strategy to diversify partnerships in Eurasia and promote economic diplomacy. These platforms reflect a common approach, where Central Asian countries are increasingly choosing to engage as a bloc, rather than solely through bilateral channels. This enhances their negotiating capacity, visibility, and strategic coherence on the global stage. While each country maintains its sovereignty and specific foreign policy priorities, there is a growing recognition that regional solidarity amplifies voices and leverage in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape. This shift aligns with the broader regional identity-building efforts under the Consultative Meetings of Central Asian Leaders, and reflects a pragmatic understanding that shared challenges — such as water management, climate adaptation, and migration — are better addressed collectively and in concert with international partners. Common regional challenges also drive this growing convergence. Climate change, water scarcity, and labor migration are issues that transcend borders. One of the most pressing concerns is the region’s vulnerability due to...