It Wasn’t Like This Under Nazarbayev: Kazakhstan’s Party Political Landscape

Speaking on June 27 on the eve of Media Workers Day at a reception where awards were presented to distinguished journalists, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev paid special attention to the powers of the head of state. Tokayev emphasized that the term of presidential powers approved in the referendum is a reality that will not be altered through amendments to the Constitution. This means that in 2029, Kazakhstan will see a new president, chosen through a legal expression of its citizens' will. This new president will not appear out of nowhere; they will likely be nominated by one of the existing political parties, which will enter the electoral battle for the Mäjılıs deputy mandates in 2028. The party leading this significant two-year electoral race will have its nominee occupy the presidency of Kazakhstan. The topic of the "problem-2029" is already a subject of discussion within the corridors of power. The current president's team has a dual task - ensuring the continuity of democratic and liberal transformations while preventing a resurgence of the Old Kazakhstan. Having been unable to change the country's leadership in 2022, Tokayev's opponents will likely pursue an institutional route. Historically, former president Nursultan Nazarbayev used a similar strategy, having first elected democratically, then extending his powers via a referendum, and gradually amending the Constitution to consolidate his rule without seeking further public approval. Could a current political party be used as a Trojan horse in such a scenario? Here are the players on the present political landscape. Amanat The most influential party in Kazakhstan, Amanat, which formerly supported Elbasy (Father of the Nation) Nursultan Nazarbayev, was founded in 1999 through the merger of several political organizations, with the largest being the Party of People's Unity of Kazakhstan (PNUK). Known as Otan and then Nur Otan (“Radiant Fatherland”) until it was rebranded in 2022, although modern sources attribute this merger to Nazarbayev, he was reportedly not focused on party building at that time. The Otan party, which resulted from the merger, emerged shortly after the early presidential election of 1999, where Nazarbayev won with a "modest" 80.97% of the vote. The runner-up in the election, Serikbolsyn Abdildin claimed that there had been widespread voter fraud and a failure to tally ballots properly, whilst the U.S. Department of State commented that the undemocratic nature of the election "cast a shadow on bilateral relations". In 2006, Otan held two congresses, during which three more political organizations joined: the Asar Party, founded by Nazarbayev's eldest daughter Dariga and her then-husband Rakhat Aliyev, as well as the Civic and Agrarian Parties, previously part of the AIST pre-election bloc. Following these mergers, Otan was renamed Nur Otan. After Rakhat Aliyev was charged, initially with the kidnapping and then with the murder of two executives at a bank he controlled in 2007, Dariga and her son took over his stake, swelling her fortune. In 2013, Forbes named her one of the fifty richest Kazakhs with assets of US$595 million, including a vast media empire. Under...