Pragmatic Diplomacy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Geopolitics

Political Analyst Karazhanov: Stability Is Central Asia’s Greatest Advantage

International events where Kazakhstan and Central Asia present their agenda and demonstrate the benefits of predictability bring significant advantages to the region. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Kazakh political analyst Zamir Karazhanov explains how the region is gradually changing its approach to addressing key challenges. According to Karazhanov, Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries, particularly Uzbekistan, have recently begun positioning themselves on the international stage in a far more pragmatic and modern way. A prime example is the speech delivered on April 17 by Kazakhstan’s President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Turkey. Observers noted that Tokayev outlined the role Kazakhstan is seeking to play in the evolving geopolitical landscape. The key message was that global governance is becoming less effective through traditional institutions, while the role of so-called “middle powers” is increasing. These countries may not define the global order on their own, but they are capable of promoting peaceful solutions, engaging in dialogue, and offering predictability. In addition, on April 22, Astana hosted the first Regional Environmental Summit (RES), which brought together around 1,500 participants from Central Asia, the European Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Middle East. The forum aimed to develop practical solutions to environmental and climate challenges facing both the Eurasia region and the wider world. During the discussions, representatives of Central Asian countries presented a realistic assessment of environmental issues and proposed a number of solutions. Environmental Threats Karazhanov noted that Kazakhstan has long faced difficult environmental conditions. “In addition to urban pollution, we have zones of ecological disaster, such as the Aral Sea. The country [Kazakhstan] hosts numerous extractive industries, and it is landlocked, located deep within the continent. Any environmental catastrophe here would have far more severe consequences than in countries without such constraints. Climate change is intensifying, temperatures are rising, and Central Asia is already experiencing acute water shortages. Without timely measures, the situation could become critical,” he said. According to him, Kazakhstan has long been dealing with environmental migration and has proactively begun building the necessary legal and social frameworks. Conflicts over water resources have already occurred in Central Asia. Karazhanov emphasized the importance of including representatives of countries that regulate the region’s water systems in the Astana forum. “This creates an opportunity for dialogue. Take the example of the two rivers that feed the Aral Sea, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. At one point, Kyrgyzstan suspended its participation in the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea because it felt its interests were constrained. It is essential to create a platform where all five countries in the region are satisfied with water distribution,” he said. He also highlighted Afghanistan as an increasingly important factor that has not been fully accounted for. As the country rebuilds after decades of conflict, its agriculture and other sectors will expand, increasing demand for water from transboundary rivers. “That is why the summit should be viewed in the broader context of regional development and good neighborly...

Geopolitics

Soft Power in Times of Geopolitical Turbulence: Kazakhstan’s Strategy as a Middle Power

For Kazakhstan, deeply embedded in global supply chains and international investment flows, soft power is evolving from an image-building asset into a strategic instrument of resilience. In an era of globalization, when even geographically distant conflicts can directly threaten national infrastructure and economic security, Astana’s ability to leverage institutional initiatives and investment interdependence as a form of diplomatic protection has become a decisive advantage. Over the long term, stability tends to characterize states whose infrastructure and economic interests are deeply interconnected with those of major global centers of power. A middle power and rational diplomacy Kazakhstan’s status as a middle power is not a matter of ambition, but a deliberate choice in favor of rational diplomacy, where flexibility and institutional engagement serve as key resources. Multilateral dialogue with the U.S., Russia, China, the EU, Turkey, and countries of the Middle East is being developed not as situational maneuvering but as a core strategy for minimizing external risks and preserving sovereignty. It is precisely the combination of proactive soft power, political neutrality, and economic openness that allows Kazakhstan to transform geopolitical turbulence into a strategic advantage, positioning the country as an indispensable hub of international stability. Ultimately, the rational diplomacy of a middle power transforms the country’s geographical position from a potential zone of conflict into a platform for dialogue, where pragmatism and institutional mediation become the principal guarantees of national sovereignty. The Ukrainian case: infrastructure protection as an element of soft power Developments surrounding Russia's war in Ukraine illustrate how Kazakhstan’s soft power can function as a form of economic protection. The attacks on infrastructure in the Novorossiysk area, through which the Caspian Pipeline Consortium exports oil, highlighted a distinctive mechanism for safeguarding national interests through investment interdependence. Strikes near the Black Sea hub posed a direct threat not only to logistics but also to the assets of major American investors in Kazakh energy projects, including Tengiz. According to reports cited in public discussions, the U.S. urged Ukraine to take into account the interests of American investors in Kazakhstan. If confirmed, such a step would represent an important precedent: even amid an intense military conflict, global actors remain attentive to protecting the economic interests tied to Kazakhstan’s energy infrastructure. For Astana, this episode illustrates how decades of building strategic relations with Western partners have created a significant layer of economic security. In this context, soft power manifests itself as a form of “investment protection,” discouraging actions that could damage oil production or transport infrastructure linked to global stakeholders. Institutionalizing neutrality: why Kazakhstan needs a Board of Peace The creation of the Board of Peace by U.S. President Donald Trump and Kazakhstan’s active participation signals Kazakhstan’s transition from ad hoc mediation toward a more structured institutional architecture of soft power. The signing of the Board of Peace Charter by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev formally embeds peacebuilding activities within the state’s foreign policy framework. Kazakhstan’s developing participation in this initiative is also linked to its experience hosting the Congress of Leaders of World...

Afghanistan

Opinion: Afghanistan and Central Asia – Security Without Illusions

Over the past year, Afghanistan has become neither markedly more stable nor dramatically more dangerous, despite how it is often portrayed in public discourse. There has been neither the collapse that many feared, nor the breakthrough that some had hoped for. Instead, a relatively unchanged but fragile status quo has persisted, one that Central Asian countries confront daily. For the C5 countries, Afghanistan is increasingly less a topic of speculative discussion and more a persistent factor in their immediate reality. It is no longer just an object of foreign policy, but a constant variable impacting security, trade, humanitarian issues, and regional stability. As such, many of last year’s forecasts have become outdated, based as they were on assumptions of dramatic change, whereas the reality has proven far more inertial. Illusion #1: Afghanistan Can Be Ignored The belief that Afghanistan can be temporarily “put on the back burner” is rooted in the assumption that a lack of public dialogue or political statements equates to a lack of interaction. But the actions of Central Asian states show that ignoring Afghanistan is not a viable option, even when countries intentionally avoid politicizing relations. Turkmenistan offers a clear example. Ashgabat has maintained stable trade, economic, and infrastructure ties with Afghanistan for years, all with minimal foreign policy rhetoric. Energy supplies, cross-border trade, and logistical cooperation have continued despite political and financial constraints, and regardless of international debates over the legitimacy of the Afghan authorities. This quiet pragmatism stands in contrast to both isolationist strategies and symbolic or ideological engagement. Turkmenistan may avoid making public declarations about its relationship with Afghanistan, but it nonetheless maintains robust cooperation. This calculated calmness reduces risks without signaling disengagement. Importantly, this approach does not eliminate structural asymmetries or deeper vulnerabilities. But it dispels the illusion that distancing reduces risk. On the contrary, sustained economic and logistical ties foster predictability, without which attempts to “ignore” a neighboring country become a form of strategic blindness. In this sense, Turkmenistan’s experience affirms a broader regional truth: Afghanistan cannot be removed from Central Asia’s geopolitical equation by simply looking away. It must be engaged pragmatically or dealt with later, in potentially more destabilizing forms. Illusion #2: Security Is Achieved Through Isolation Closely related to the first is the illusion that security can be ensured by building walls. Security in Afghanistan, and in the broader Afghan-Pakistani zone, is often seen as an external issue, something that can be kept out by sealing borders or minimizing engagement. Yet in practice, security is determined less by geography and more by the nature of involvement. This is reflected in the recent decision by Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to participate in U.S. President Donald Trump's “Board of Peace” initiative. While the initiative focuses on resolving crises outside Central Asia, both countries have framed their participation as essential to their own national and regional security interests. As Abdulaziz Kamilov, advisor to the President of Uzbekistan, explained, Tashkent’s involvement stems from three factors: its own security needs, its foreign policy principles,...

Central Asia-Italy Summit

Italy Courts Central Asia: Trade, Transit, and Tech Take Center Stage

The inaugural Central Asia-Italy Summit, held on May 30, 2025, in Astana, marked a significant step in international diplomacy. It established a new framework for dialogue between the European Union and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. The participation of the leaders of all five Central Asian nations alongside Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni underscores the region’s growing strategic and economic relevance. Bilateral Meetings Ahead of the summit, extended talks took place between Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Tokayev emphasized the depth and stability of bilateral ties, describing Italy as a key strategic partner. Trade between the two nations grew by 24% in 2024, reaching $20 billion. Italy is Kazakhstan’s third-largest trading partner and a major investor, with approximately $7.6 billion invested over the past two decades. Over 270 Italian companies currently operate in Kazakhstan. [caption id="attachment_32447" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] @akorda[/caption] Meloni praised the relationship as “exceptional,” highlighting Italy’s interest in expanding cooperation across trade, energy, and humanitarian domains. A pivotal outcome of the meeting was the signing of a Joint Statement on Strengthening Strategic Partnerships. [caption id="attachment_32448" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] @akorda[/caption] Additional agreements included: Security and Migration - Readmission agreement; Resources and Critical Materials - Cooperation on strategic mineral extraction; Investment and Industrial Development - Agreements involving Samruk-Kazyna, Maire Tecnimont, and Ansaldo; Water Management and Ecology - Memorandum with the Italian engineering association OICE; Finance and Project Lending - Agreements with Cassa Depositi e Prestiti and SACE SpA; Energy and Exports - Agreements with Samruk-Energo and Kazakh Invest. President Tokayev also met with Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, emphasizing cultural and economic ties and expressing hope for the realization of joint projects. [caption id="attachment_32449" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] @akorda[/caption] Kazakhstan's Proposals Tokayev outlined proposals for expanding economic, technological, and humanitarian cooperation with Italy. He called for the development of logistics infrastructure and proposed establishing an Italian trading house in Almaty and launching the "Businessmen Plus Italy" platform. Tokayev highlighted Kazakhstan’s readiness to boost oil exports, already over 30 million tons in 2023, a 27% increase from the previous year, and expand exports of over 100 goods valued at $1 billion, particularly non-resource items. He also proposed increased cooperation in agro-industry and emphasized aligning certification standards with the EU. Kazakhstan invited Italian firms to participate in rare earth exploration under a model of “investment and technology in exchange for strategic raw materials.” Joint ventures in textiles, furniture, pharmaceuticals, and machinery were also encouraged. Tokayev stressed decarbonization as a national priority and praised Italian investments in renewable energy. He proposed collaboration on green hydrogen and ammonia production and urged Italy to engage with the Global Biofuels Alliance. [caption id="attachment_32450" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] @akorda[/caption] In education and research, Tokayev invited Italian technical universities to open branches in Kazakhstan, noting that 4,000 Kazakhstani students currently study in Italy. He proposed joint efforts in AI and innovation, including participation in the new Central Asia-EU Innovation Campus at the Astana Hub. Transport infrastructure also featured prominently. Tokayev advocated for integrating the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TMTR)...