Central Asia in the Crosshairs: Experts Warn of Intensifying Global Information Wars

The shift toward a multipolar world is unlikely to spark a nuclear conflict, but it is setting the stage for a global information war, according to Kazakh experts. They predict that Central Asia will soon become the focal point of this confrontation. At a roundtable in Astana titled "Humanitarian Aspects of Information Security and Soft Power as Factors of Sustainable Development and National Consolidation of Kazakhstan," participants discussed how Kazakhstan could address these challenges while leveraging "soft power" to its advantage. The Information Warfront Yerzhan Bagdatov, director of the information agency Toppress.kz, stated that Kazakhstan has long been a hotspot for hybrid warfare between Russia and the West. This is evident not only in sanctions threatening secondary effects on Kazakh enterprises, but also in external information campaigns targeting the country. “The methods of information warfare - sabotage, provocations - are already evident in Kazakhstan. A Third World Information War, though unlikely to involve nuclear weapons, could still result in casualties, economic losses, and damage to infrastructure,” said Bagdatov. Bagdatov noted that media, social networks, and mobile apps have become primary tools in this warfare. Across the globe, specialized information operation centers are deploying these tactics, including in Central Asia. Kazakhstan has experienced attempts to stoke inter-ethnic tensions, undermine trust in monetary policy, and spread misinformation about health policies, including vaccination. Bagdatov emphasized the urgent need to combat these tactics through better public awareness and “information hygiene.” He pointed to Russia’s example, where an institute under the Academy of Sciences counters information attacks. He suggested Kazakhstan could expand fact-checking efforts, such as those by stopfake.kz, into a regional network to address cross-border misinformation. Building Resilience Through Digital Hygiene Alexander Drogovoz, deputy director of the Alexei Kosygin Institute of International Education in Russia, advocated for a unified approach among Central Asian nations. This includes creating regional communication platforms to reduce reliance on Western platforms that frequently block or ban content from countries like Russia. Drogovoz also highlighted the need to combat online anonymity, citing Italy's law enforcement measures to identify anonymous users and prosecute illegal online activity. “Authorities must treat online crimes with the same seriousness as real-world offenses,” he stated. Galym Baituk, chairman of Manash Kozybaev North Kazakhstan University, underscored Kazakhstan’s unique position at the crossroads of civilizations, making it particularly vulnerable to misinformation and propaganda. He called for the development of national digital platforms to promote the Kazakhstani agenda and state-supported education programs to help citizens distinguish facts from manipulation. Turning Challenges Into Opportunities Despite the threats, Aidar Kurmashev of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KISI) argued that the situation offers Kazakhstan new opportunities to assert itself as a regional leader in "soft power." Kurmashev emphasized the growing importance of middle powers, such as Kazakhstan, in a multipolar world. Drawing on the experiences of countries like South Korea and Turkey, he suggested that Kazakhstan could foster coalitions to address global challenges while strengthening its regional position. Another opportunity lies in engaging with the Kazakh diaspora. Kurmashev proposed studying the...

Who Will Benefit if Kazakhstan Refuses To Build Nuclear Power Plants?

Kazakhstan is facing a growing energy deficit while having large reserves of uranium which would allow the country to develop its nuclear power industry. However, so far, uranium mined in the country is used solely for export, and every year difficulties with supply chains only increase. All these problems can be solved in one elegant way, but this solution is what a part of the Kazakhstani public actively opposes.   Difficulties with production and supplies Kazakhstan ranks second in the world in terms of proven reserves of natural uranium. About 14% of the world's proven reserves are concentrated in the country's subsoil. According to estimates, the country's explored reserves contain more than 700,000 tons of uranium. In 2009, Kazakhstan became the world's largest uranium producer and continues to maintain its leading position in the global market, producing approximately 40% of the world's uranium. In 2021, uranium production in Kazakhstan amounted to 21,800 tons, but by 2023 this had decreased to 21,112 tons. Moreover, due to difficulties related to the availability of sulfuric acid, the national company Kazatomprom reduced production plans for 2024. According to the initial plan, between 25,000 and 25,500 tons were to be produced; now, the plan is to produce 21,000 to 22,500 tons. Kazatomprom has also stated that if limited access to sulfuric acid continues through 2024 and the company fails to reduce the construction backlog at new sites, it could have a negative impact on production plans for 2025. Uranium mining in Kazakhstan is carried out solely by in-situ leaching, the most environmentally safe and lowest-cost method available. The Russia-Ukraine conflict could not help but affect this area of Kazakhstan's exports. This year, it became known that Kazakhstan is working on diversifying its uranium export routes, bypassing Russia. This is stated in the report on implementing the concept of development of Kazakhstan's fuel and energy complex for 2023. As part of this, Kazatomprom is working on an agreement with the Chinese companies CNUS, CNEIC, and CNNC to provide uranium transit services through China. Kazakhstan currently transports uranium products to customers in North America and Europe through the port of St. Petersburg. An alternative way is to use the Trans-Caspian international transportation route, with shipments through the ports of Aktau (Kazakhstan), Alyat (Azerbaijan), and Poti (Georgia).   Nuclear deadlock Obviously, some of the concerns of Kazakhstan's leadership and Kazatomprom regarding the sale of uranium products could be alleviated by developing the country's own nuclear industry, meaning that uranium mined in the country would feed its own nuclear power plants. Talks about the need to build nuclear plants in the country have regularly been raised since the beginning of the 2000s. Kazakhstani nuclear physicists and nuclear specialists, with the persistence of a Don Quixote have periodically rush to attack the windmills of Kazakhstani radio-phobia, which, however, did not arise without reason. The Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site (SNTS) and the Chernobyl disaster are two significant elements of this phobia. In the early 1990s, when the SNTP was closed, the...