Rogun Dam - The Times Of Central Asia

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Electricity supply

Rahmon Outlines Measures to Address Tajikistan’s Winter Power Shortages

President Emomali Rahmon has acknowledged that Tajikistan’s population continues to endure severe electricity rationing during the winter months, and has outlined steps the government is taking to alleviate the crisis. “We are fully aware of the challenges faced by the people of Tajikistan during the period of temporary restrictions on electricity supply,” Rahmon said in his annual address to parliament on December 16, adding that authorities are implementing all necessary measures to address the issue. Rahmon attributed the shortages primarily to rapid population growth and the expansion of industrial production, both of which have significantly increased domestic electricity consumption. He also cited unfavorable weather conditions, including below-average rainfall last autumn, which reduced water inflows into reservoirs that supply the country’s hydropower plants. He noted that since independence, 1.3 million new homes have been built to accommodate over 8.4 million people. In the past seven years alone, 2,600 new industrial enterprises have begun operations, further raising electricity demand. Despite these pressures, Tajikistan has steadily increased electricity production. Over the past decade, annual generation has risen by 7 billion kilowatt-hours, from 17.2 billion in 2015 to 24.2 billion in 2025, an increase of approximately 40%. However, domestic demand is projected to grow by an additional 31% by 2030 compared to 2025 levels. Over the past ten years, investments in the energy sector have added 1,017 megawatts to the country’s installed capacity. A further 200 megawatts were gained through the rehabilitation and modernization of existing plants. One of the most recent projects was the modernization of the Kairakkum Hydroelectric Power Plant, completed in November 2025, which increased its capacity from 114 megawatts to 174 megawatts. While Tajikistan possesses vast hydropower potential, it has long struggled with chronic energy shortages. In response, the government has prioritized large-scale hydropower projects, particularly the Rogun Dam and Hydropower Plant, which is expected to be central to achieving domestic energy security and establishing Tajikistan as a regional electricity exporter. Rahmon announced that the third generating unit of the Rogun plant is scheduled for commissioning in September 2027, marking a key milestone on the path to full energy independence. In parallel, construction has begun on two large solar power plants, each with a capacity of 250 megawatts, in the Sughd and Khatlon regions. Both facilities are expected to be operational by August 2026. He also emphasized the importance of improving energy efficiency alongside expanding generation capacity. Electricity losses remain high, exceeding 3 billion kilowatt-hours annually. Rahmon called for accelerating the rollout of a nationwide digital billing system, which he said has already reduced losses. The introduction of modern digital billing and payment technologies revealed that 30% to 40% of households were previously not paying for electricity. Since the system’s implementation, losses have declined. In the first 11 months of 2025, total electricity losses stood at approximately 3 billion kilowatt-hours, 500 million kilowatt-hours less than during the same period the previous year.

Rogun Dam

Environmental Groups Criticize World Bank’s Decision on Rogun Dam Complaint

Environmental advocates have sharply criticized the World Bank’s decision to reject a request for a full investigation into Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Plant, citing concerns over potentially severe environmental and social consequences for communities downstream along the Amu Darya river in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. According to the international coalition Rivers without Boundaries, the World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors dismissed the complaint despite mounting evidence that the project could exacerbate water scarcity, degrade water quality, damage vulnerable ecosystems, and displace rural populations dependent on agriculture and access to clean water. The complaint, filed earlier this year on behalf of affected communities, argued that the project’s environmental impact assessments were based on outdated data and non-binding verbal assurances from Tajikistan that the reservoir would not be operated at full capacity. The World Bank’s Inspection Panel registered the complaint in April 2025 and, after conducting an initial review, including a fact-finding visit to Tajikistan in June, recommended a comprehensive investigation, citing a strong likelihood of harm. However, the Bank’s Board rejected that recommendation, asserting that only citizens of the country receiving Bank financing are eligible to request an investigation. This decision surprised observers, particularly given that the Bank had previously accepted similar complaints from Uzbekistan over the same project in 2010. Environmental groups argue that the Board’s procedural reasoning allows it to ignore the project's far-reaching transboundary impacts. Evgeny Simonov, a lead expert at Rivers without Boundaries, stated that the Inspection Panel’s own findings validated the downstream communities’ concerns. He accused the Bank of avoiding accountability by hiding behind technicalities. Alexander Kolotov, director of the same coalition, said the ruling reveals a contradiction between the Bank’s public commitments to inclusive development and its actual response to cross-border grievances. He warned that dismissing downstream voices undermines the principles of equitable and participatory water governance. Environmental experts also caution that the refusal to launch an investigation leaves no recourse for affected communities should their fears materialize. Potential long-term impacts include increased soil salinity, reduced agricultural productivity, and the erosion of traditional rural livelihoods. The Rogun Alert coalition, an alliance of international environmental organizations, announced plans to continue monitoring the situation and to explore alternative mechanisms to protect the environmental rights of the region’s residents. Previous assessments had warned that filling the Rogun reservoir could reduce water flows to the Amu Darya delta by 25% or more, with potentially devastating effects on ecosystems and the wellbeing of up to 10 million people in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

Hydropower

Tajikistan Upgrades Nurek Dam to Boost Power Supply Ahead of Winter Crunch

Tajikistan’s massive Nurek hydroelectric dam – the world’s second-tallest – is undergoing a sweeping modernization to shore up the nation’s electricity supply ahead of the demanding winter season. The 300-meter-high dam, completed in 1980 on the Vakhsh River near the Afghan border, has long been a strategic asset, supplying approximately 70% of Tajikistan’s power. As winter approaches and energy demand peaks, crews at the 3,015 MW hydropower plant are racing to upgrade aging turbines and infrastructure to ensure reliable electricity across the country. The overhaul, which began several years ago, promises not only to keep the lights on through harsh weather but also to boost Nurek’s capacity and extend the life of a facility that has defined Tajikistan’s energy landscape for five decades. A Soviet-Era Marvel at the Heart of Tajikistan’s Power Grid When it was completed in 1980, Nurek was the tallest dam in the world, a record it held for years as a feat of Soviet engineering, with the earth-fill embankment forming a vast reservoir of 98 km² that stores some 10.5 billion cubic meters of water. Between 1972 and 1979, nine giant hydro turbines were installed, giving Nurek an original design capacity of approximately 2,700 MW. Over time, improvements brought its output to just over 3,000 MW. In addition to producing power, the reservoir also supports major irrigation across the Amu Darya basin with one scheme alone - via the Dangara tunnel - irrigating roughly 70,000 hectares, underscoring its dual importance for energy and agriculture. For Tajikistan, a mountainous country of roughly 10.8 million people, Nurek has been nothing short of an economic lifeline. Hydropower accounts for roughly 98% of Tajikistan’s electricity generation, one of the highest shares of renewable energy in the world. This green energy dominance is largely thanks to Nurek and a network of smaller dams. However, the infrastructure is aging, and after 50 years of service, Nurek’s machinery had begun to falter. By the mid-2010s, winter electricity shortages had become common. During the cold months from late September to April, the hydrological cycle leaves Tajikistan with reduced river flow, just as heating needs spike. In those winters, rural areas often faced power rationing and outages, while the capital Dushanbe and other major cities narrowly avoided blackouts. Modernizing Nurek became essential to prevent a return to the severe energy crises of the past and to meet the country’s development goals. Upgrading and Expanding a Giant A comprehensive rehabilitation of Nurek began in earnest in recent years, backed by international financing, including the World Bank. The overhaul is split into phases: Phase I of the modernization — covering four of Nurek’s nine generating units along with major dam-safety works — is scheduled for completion by the end of 2026. Phase II will then refurbish the remaining six units. The upgrades are substantial - new high-efficiency Francis turbines will raise each unit’s capacity from 335 MW to 375 MW. In October 2022, the first upgraded unit came online, producing about 10% more power than before. By August...

Rogun Dam

Tajikistan’s Rogun Dam to Triple Forests Under No Net Loss Plan

The construction of Tajikistan’s massive Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP) will proceed under strict environmental conditions, guided by what experts describe as a "No Net Loss" (NNL) approach to nature. According to Asia-Plus, the updated Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) for the project outlines a series of measures to offset ecological damage, including large-scale forest restoration. The report states that 262 hectares of land, including 185 hectares of juniper forest and 77 hectares of floodplain, will be lost due to construction. To compensate, authorities plan to restore 786 hectares of new forest, tripling the area impacted. The reforestation effort will prioritize juniper, riverside, and fruit and nut forests, while also establishing new protected areas to reinforce local ecosystems. Tajikistan’s Forestry Agency has already allocated nearly 7,600 hectares of land for these efforts. Reforestation is expected to cost over $7.5 million, with annual maintenance costs projected at approximately $10,500. The ESIA outlines a phased strategy. From 2025 to 2030, specific restoration sites will be identified. Practical implementation, including planting and ecosystem protection, is scheduled to begin in 2031. The NNL principle aims to ensure that long-term ecological gains outweigh short-term environmental disruptions. Once completed, the Rogun HPP will have an installed capacity of 3,780 megawatts, making it the largest hydropower facility in Central Asia. Its six turbines, each with a capacity of 630 MW, are expected to generate over 14.5 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually once the plant becomes fully operational in 2029. Two units, launched in 2018 and 2019, are already producing power at reduced capacity. In 2024, the plant generated 1.22 billion kWh, accounting for 5.5 percent of Tajikistan’s total electricity output. However, the project has not escaped controversy. The World Bank’s Inspection Panel recently agreed to review a formal complaint filed by residents of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, supported by the regional coalition Rivers Without Boundaries. The complaint questions the adequacy of the project's environmental assessments, which critics argue fail to fully account for downstream impacts on communities and ecosystems along the Amu Darya basin. Despite these concerns, Tajik officials maintain that Rogun will enhance national energy independence while also helping position Central Asia as a hub for renewable energy.

Rogun Dam

Tajikistan’s Rogun Dam Delayed as World Bank Freezes Funding

The future of Tajikistan’s flagship infrastructure project, the Rogun Hydropower Plant, has been thrown into doubt as the World Bank and other development partners delay financing until the government fulfils key conditions, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported. The move reflects growing concerns among environmental groups and downstream communities in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan over the dam’s ecological risks to the Amu Darya River. A Strategic Asset With Mounting Costs The Rogun project, often hailed as Tajikistan’s greatest national undertaking, is central to the government’s ambitions for energy independence and regional electricity exports. But it also represents one of the country's most significant financial liabilities. Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings recently affirmed Tajikistan’s sovereign credit rating at “B/B” with a stable outlook, but cautioned that Rogun is so costly it may never generate sufficient returns. The agency warned that the project could push the national budget into deficit by the end of 2025. Construction of the dam began in 1976 under the Soviet Union but was suspended during Tajikistan’s civil war. Attempts to restart the project in the early 2000s stalled over disagreements with Russian partners. In 2016, the government relaunched the project with support from the World Bank, awarding the main construction contract to Italy’s Salini Impregilo (now Webuild). That same year, the Vakhsh River was diverted and dam construction resumed. Two turbines were commissioned in 2018 and 2019, but significant progress has since slowed. To complete the plant, Tajikistan must install six additional turbines, raise the dam from its current 135 meters to the planned 335 meters, and secure an estimated $6.4 billion in new funding, roughly 40% of the country’s projected GDP for 2025. Conditions for Continued Support The World Bank has suspended further financing until Tajikistan presents a credible financing strategy that avoids unsustainable public debt, finalizes long-term electricity export agreements, and implements robust dam safety protocols. Without these conditions in place, the Bank has stated it cannot continue its support. Environmental opposition to the project has also intensified. The international coalition Rivers without Boundaries has warned that filling the Rogun reservoir could reduce Amu Darya river flows by more than 25%, accelerating desertification and endangering the livelihoods of up to 10 million people in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Alexander Kolotov, a representative of the coalition, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the World Bank’s board is expected to review a report based on complaints filed by downstream communities, though no specific date has been set. Kolotov emphasized that Rogun poses one of the largest economic risks to Tajikistan and questioned whether international lenders should deepen their involvement. Broader Economic Fragility Tajikistan faces additional vulnerabilities. The country remains heavily reliant on remittances from labor migrants in Russia, lacks economic diversification, and is projected to lose its “least developed country” status in 2026, potentially curtailing its access to concessional aid and financing. For now, the Rogun Hydropower Plant stands as both a symbol of national aspiration and a looming financial gamble. Whether it becomes a cornerstone of regional energy security or a cautionary tale...

Rogun Dam

World Bank to Investigate Regional Risks of Rogun Dam Project

The World Bank’s Inspection Panel has agreed to review a formal complaint filed by residents of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan concerning the environmental and social risks associated with the Rogun Hydropower Project (HPP) in Tajikistan. The complaint, submitted by the regional environmental coalition Rivers Without Boundaries, targets a $350 million World Bank loan and related technical assistance used to revise the project’s 2014 environmental and social impact assessments. The complainants argue that the current studies are outdated and inadequate, relying on assumptions that are more than a decade old. They contend the assessments fail to account for the downstream effects of storing and diverting water from the Vakhsh River, one of the primary tributaries of the Amu Darya basin, on communities and ecosystems in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Preliminary estimates from the World Bank suggest that filling the Rogun reservoir could decrease the flow into the Aral Sea by 0.8 to 1.2 cubic kilometers annually, potentially cutting today’s levels by as much as 25%. Such a reduction, critics warn, could exacerbate ongoing issues in the region, including desertification, soil salinity, and land degradation. These challenges have plagued villages in the lower Amu Darya since Soviet-era irrigation schemes dramatically reduced the sea’s volume, leading to persistent dust storms and declining water quality. Local farmers are particularly concerned about the dam’s effect on the timing of water availability. If the dam shifts the river’s flow from spring and summer into winter storage, it could disrupt traditional irrigation cycles, forcing expensive infrastructure adjustments. Some communities fear economic collapse and forced migration if water needs go unmet during critical planting seasons. Environmental experts also highlight the cumulative threat posed by the Rogun HPP in conjunction with Afghanistan’s planned Qosh Tepa canal. No comprehensive analysis has been conducted to evaluate the combined impact of these two major water diversion projects on regional hydrology and biodiversity. The World Bank itself estimates that climate change could reduce water availability in the region by 15-30% by 2050, potentially costing Uzbekistan up to 250,000 agricultural jobs and requiring billions in climate adaptation investments. In response, Rivers Without Boundaries has called on the World Bank and its co-financiers, who have collectively pledged over $1 billion, to suspend further funding until a transparent, independent risk assessment is completed. The coalition advocates for a thorough study of alternative project designs, such as a lower dam height, to mitigate environmental and social damage. They also demand genuine public consultation with all Amu Darya basin countries, equitable compensation mechanisms, and legally binding water management agreements. Failure to address these concerns, the group warns, risks triggering an irreversible ecological and humanitarian crisis across Central Asia.