Transport and Logistics - The Times Of Central Asia

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Middle Corridor

Kazakhstan Looks to Armenia for a Future Middle Corridor Branch

Kazakhstan’s deepening engagement with Armenia has made TRIPP, part of the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace formula, a practical question for the Middle Corridor. The Armenia–U.S. implementation framework published in January presents the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) as a project for unimpeded, multimodal transit connectivity on Armenian territory. The means for its realization remain under discussion. TRIPP has thus become relevant to Kazakhstan, even though Astana is not a direct party to the prospective Armenia–Azerbaijan settlement. Recent Kazakhstani diplomacy with Baku and Tbilisi has confirmed that the existing Azerbaijan–Georgia route remains the operative western channel of the Middle Corridor. A route through Armenia would not replace the Azerbaijan–Georgia line; it would widen the Middle Corridor’s western options. If constructed, it would link the main body of Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan and open new transit opportunities from Central Asia and the Caspian to Europe. Astana Brings Yerevan into the Route System Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan visited Astana in November 2025. His talks with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized economic sectors, including trade, infrastructure, transport, agriculture, and air transport, together with humanitarian sectors such as education and culture. The official Armenian account also recorded the leaders’ interest in unblocking regional communications, importing wheat from Kazakhstan to Armenia by rail, and bringing TRIPP to life. Tokayev described the first shipment of Kazakhstani wheat reaching Armenia through Azerbaijan as having both political and economic significance. The cargo moved along existing lines, through Russia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Astana’s April 2026 Regional Ecological Summit showed the same regional widening from another angle: it brought Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia into a forum that connected environmental pressure with economic security and regional cooperation. The Kazakhstan–Armenia agenda has since become more specific. Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev visited Yerevan as part of an official delegation earlier this month. Kosherbayev’s presence gave the visit added weight, bringing recent cabinet experience and a record on politically sensitive regional issues rather than merely protocol standing. His talks with Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan on April 8 extended the discussion to a broader institutional basis, including the bilateral Intergovernmental Commission and the Kazakhstan–Armenia Business Council. The two parties agreed that transit and logistics interconnectivity create new opportunities for market integration between Central Asia and the South Caucasus. The talks did more than raise the bilateral profile. They brought Armenia closer to the network already carrying Kazakhstan’s westbound trade. Regional connectivity received more detailed treatment on April 9, when Kosherbayev met with Pashinyan to discuss transport, transit, and trade within the 2026–2030 Roadmap for Trade and Economic Cooperation. Kosherbayev also reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s interest in long-term agricultural exports, especially grain and meat, and informed the Armenian side about measures to establish regular direct air connections. These meetings showed Astana and Yerevan moving toward the same practical premise: Armenia may become part of the wider route system. TRIPP Becomes a Middle Corridor Question Azerbaijan has completed infrastructure up to the Armenian border, but TRIPP has not yet begun construction through Armenia itself. It remains tied to the Armenia–Azerbaijan...

TCA Interviews

Kyrgyz Minister Sydykov Courts Investment in Washington

On the occasion of the annual IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington this week, the Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan, Adylbek Kasymaliev, led a delegation to Washington D.C. for World Bank and IMF meetings, the Department of State Annual Bilateral Consultations, a meeting with Secretary of State Rubio, Deputy Secretary Landau and Under Secretary Hooker, as well as a number of other constructive dialogues and engagements with scholars, researchers, and authors. This trip marks the second high-level U.S. visit in a year, signaling Washington’s strategic interest and Kyrgyzstan’s willingness to deepen cooperation. Bakyt Sydykov, Kyrgyzstan’s Minister of Economy and Commerce, accompanied the Prime Minister. The delegation’s visit to Washington reinforces President Sadyr Japarov’s statement to President Donald Trump during the November 2025 C5+1 Summit, “I am confident that this event will provide an excellent opportunity for U.S. businesses to expand cooperation in sectors such as agriculture, e-commerce, information technology, transportation and logistics, tourism, and banking.” Following Japarov’s lead, Sydykov is actively engaging private and multilateral partners; state and Commerce meetings are meant to keep things moving and steady investor confidence. This shift towards deeper diplomatic, investment, and development ties is striking and certainly welcome in Washington. The shift reflects both an evolving Central Asian geopolitical landscape, post-Afghanistan dynamics, economic needs, diversification goals, and troubles in West Asia. Deeper engagement is also driven by ambitions to enhance regional transport and logistics integration. Kyrgyzstan’s approach departs from zero-sum logic, prioritizing win-win pragmatism and mutual gains. Minister Sydykov In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Minister Sydykov said that this visit builds on the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) recent official mission to Bishkek (March 18–April 1, 2026) and that “our banking sector is strong and well capitalized, as affirmed by the IMF, and we are well prepared against risk, enhancing oversight in the context of global volatility.” Commenting on the government’s fiscal management following the IMF’s guidance, Sydykov said: “To expand fiscal flexibility, we are mobilizing revenue across a range of standard taxation measures and raising expenditure efficiency with responsible internal wage policies, rationalized energy subsidies, and public investment management. We are pinpointing more prudent debt management measures, enhancing risk oversight, and rolling out tracking metrics to uphold long-term sustainability and credibility.” ⁠Looking forward, Sydykov noted that Kyrgyzstan is monitoring outlook risks related to external volatility, while also insisting that “we are working to hold down domestic inflation – always a challenge with rapid economic growth – and lower fiscal pressures. We assess that these endogenous variables remain manageable, even with increased exposure to cross-border trade and capital flows. While external volatility lies beyond our direct control, Kyrgyzstan is working with the IMF, other multilaterals, and domestic banks to maintain and build resilience. We are therefore strengthening buffers, recalibrating policies, and advancing accounting reforms to support performance and sustainable growth.” Responding to the ADB’s latest forecasts, Sydykov said Kyrgyzstan’s economy is moving toward greater stability and growth. After an 11.1% surge in 2025, growth is expected to slow to 8.9% in 2026 and 8.4%...

TCA Interviews

Kazakhstan’s Logistics: Mukhtar Tolegen on Infrastructure and Reform

Kazakhstan has invested tens of billions of dollars in transport infrastructure in recent years and has positioned itself as a key transit link between Europe and Asia. Yet the country still ranks in the middle of the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index (LPI). Why have these large investments not produced a sharper improvement, and what reforms are needed to change that? The Times of Central Asia spoke with Mukhtar Tolegen, executive director for transport logistics at the Union of Transport Workers of Kazakhstan, “KAZLOGISTICS.” TCA: What is Kazakhstan's current position in the LPI, and how has it changed? Mukhtar: In the World Bank's 2023 LPI ranking, Kazakhstan ranks 79th out of 139 countries, with an overall score of 2.7 on a five-point scale. This represents a decline from the previous ranking, when the country ranked 71st. It's important to note that the index's methodology was updated in 2023. In addition to expert assessments, the calculation now includes real-world cargo tracking data, including GPS-based data. This made the ranking more objective and simultaneously increased competition between countries. Despite its decline, Kazakhstan is demonstrating steady progress in a number of areas. This is primarily due to the development of transport infrastructure, the construction of new highways, the modernization of checkpoints, and the creation of transport and logistics centers. Strengthening the country's transit potential within international transport corridors, including the Middle Corridor, the North-South Corridor, and the China-Kazakhstan-Europe route, is also playing a significant role. At the same time, digitalization of logistics is rapidly advancing, including electronic customs solutions, cargo tracking systems, and other technological tools. An additional driver is the growing interest of international investors, including in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative. TCA: How does a country's position in the ranking affect its economy and investment attractiveness? Mukhtar: The LPI index is not simply a reflection of the state of the logistics system, but an important indicator of a country's economic competitiveness. The higher a country's ranking, the lower its logistics costs for exports and imports, the faster cargo flows across borders, and the higher the level of trust among international partners and investors. Low scores, on the other hand, indicate bottlenecks, for example, in customs procedures or infrastructure. Under such conditions, large international companies may choose alternative routes, which reduces the country's transit potential. Thus, the LPI serves as a tool that directly influences the development of international trade, investment attractiveness, and the country's strategic position in the global market. TCA: In which index components is Kazakhstan showing progress, and where are challenges remaining? Mukhtar: The LPI index is based on six key components, and the dynamics of these components in Kazakhstan remain uneven. Quality of Infrastructure Steady progress is being observed here, driven by large-scale investments in the transport system. The modernization of the Dostyk-Moiynty railway section has significantly increased the capacity of the Kazakhstan-China route. Projects are underway to build new lines, including a bypass of Almaty, as well as the Moiynty-Kyzylzhar, Darbaza-Maktaaral, and Ayagoz-Bakhty routes....

Food Security

Iran Conflict Drives Food Price Pressures Across Central Asia

The war around Iran is beginning to push up food price risks in Central Asia as disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz raise fertilizer and fuel costs, while Tehran’s halt to some food exports adds pressure in regional markets. The impact is not manifesting as shortages, but as rising costs across the systems that produce, move, and sell food. The United Nations has warned that the crisis is disrupting one of the world’s most important trade corridors for energy and agricultural supplies. A large share of global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and reduced shipping traffic is tightening supply and pushing up prices. Higher fuel costs are adding a second layer of pressure on farmers and transport networks. Fertilizer and fuel are among agriculture’s highest costs. Even modest increases can compress margins quickly, forcing farmers to cut usage or pass costs on, with pressure moving through to retail prices. Central Asia is particularly exposed to this shift in costs. The region relies on imported fuel and fertilizers, and depends on long, multi-stage transport routes. When costs increase at any point in that chain, they accumulate before goods reach markets. The second layer of pressure comes from Iran itself. On March 3, Tehran imposed a ban on exports of food products as part of wartime economic measures. Reporting in Tajikistan indicates that the move could affect the availability and pricing of goods such as dairy, sugar, fruit, and spices, particularly in wholesale and lower-cost retail markets. Iran is not a dominant supplier, but plays a role in specific markets. Tajikistan is the clearest example. Tajikistan has also expanded its economic relationship with Iran in recent years, supported by cooperation in industry and transport. Iranian goods are widely present in retail supply chains, and trade between the two countries has grown steadily in recent years. That growth is part of a broader trend. Iran’s economic ties with Central Asia have expanded under new trade arrangements and bilateral initiatives. Kazakhstan and Iran have discussed increasing trade turnover to $3 billion, reflecting the rising use of Caspian routes and port infrastructure, which are now under threat. [caption id="attachment_46480" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Aralsk Bazaar. Rising transport and fertilizer costs are beginning to push up food prices across the region. Image: Michael J. Bland[/caption] Transport adds a third layer of pressure. As risks rise across the Middle East, airlines and freight operators are avoiding large swathes of Iranian airspace and surrounding routes, forcing rerouting and raising costs across supply chains. European aviation safety authorities have issued conflict-zone bulletins warning of heightened risks in the region, and carriers have adjusted accordingly. Rerouting increases fuel use, extends journey times, and raises insurance costs. Those increases affect cargo as well as passengers, and over time, higher logistics costs feed into the price of imported goods, including food. On land, the same pattern is visible. As southern routes become less predictable, more freight is shifting toward the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route - the Middle Corridor -...

Fuel prices

Central Asia Avoids Fuel Shock as Global Pressures Build

Central Asia has so far avoided the immediate fuel shocks spreading across much of the world following the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran. There are no lines at gas stations, no visible shortages, and no signs of panic buying. But that stability sits within a rapidly tightening global market, where disruptions in Asia and policy responses in Europe are reshaping fuel flows in ways the region will struggle to avoid. Across Southeast Asia, governments are already taking precautionary steps. Some state agencies and private firms are shifting parts of their workforce to remote work to reduce fuel consumption and prepare for potential price spikes and logistics disruptions, while Thailand is preparing contingency measures, including possible fuel rationing. China, one of Asia’s largest suppliers of refined fuels, has moved to restrict exports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in an effort to prevent domestic shortages linked to the war. The move is expected to tighten supplies across Asia, especially for countries that rely on Chinese fuel imports. China supplied about one-third of Australia’s jet fuel last year, highlighting the wider regional impact, and roughly half of the Philippines’ and Bangladesh’s in 2024. Vietnam has already warned airlines to prepare for flight reductions in April due to the risk of shortages caused by these export restrictions. Indonesia is also imposing limits on fuel sales. Fuel-related pressures have begun to emerge in Europe as well. Poland has introduced tax measures aimed at reducing fuel prices, with the government saying this will lower prices for consumers. Slovenia, meanwhile, has introduced significant restrictions on fuel consumption. Under new rules, private motorists are limited to purchasing a maximum of 50 liters per day, while businesses and farmers may purchase up to 200 liters daily. The combined effect of war-driven energy shocks and renewed tariff barriers is raising global costs and adding pressure across trade, transport, and inflation. Against this backdrop, Central Asia’s apparent stability is misleading. It is highly unlikely that import-dependent states such as Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan will be as well protected as Kazakhstan, which may benefit in the short term from higher crude prices. Starting April 1, Russia is banning gasoline exports in an effort to stabilize its own domestic market. Russia is a key fuel supplier to Central Asia. However, according to assurances from the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, the temporary export ban will not affect supplies to Uzbekistan. Deliveries under intergovernmental agreements are expected to continue, ensuring that at least part of the region’s supply remains uninterrupted. In Kyrgyzstan, despite recent developments, fuel prices and supplies remain relatively stable. The government is considering lowering taxes or temporarily waiving excise duties for fuel importers should the crisis continue. Information from Turkmenistan is difficult to verify independently. Despite reports of fuel shortages at gas stations last year, official media are now indicating a significant increase in domestic gasoline production. The production plan for January-February 2026 was reportedly fulfilled at 122.7%, according to Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Guvancha...

Trade

Uzbekistan and Russia Focus on Trade and Transit at Termez Meeting

Uzbekistan and Russia used a conference in Termez on March 30–31 to highlight the breadth of their relationship, from trade and industrial projects to transport links and regional planning. The meeting was organized by Uzbekistan’s Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies and Russia’s Kremlin-linked policy forum, the Valdai Discussion Club. Participants included Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Uzbek Deputy Foreign Minister Bobur Usmanov, ISRS director Eldor Aripov, Russian Ambassador Alexei Yerkhov, and other Uzbek and Russian officials, analysts, and business representatives. The meeting comes at a time of shifting regional dynamics, as Central Asian states recalibrate ties with Russia while managing new economic and political pressures from multiple directions. Termez sits by the Friendship Bridge on Uzbekistan’s border with Afghanistan and has become one of Tashkent’s main platforms for trade, logistics, and diplomacy aimed southward. The conference program focused on transport, infrastructure, interregional ties, and industrial cooperation, so the location matters. This aligns Uzbekistan’s relationship with Russia with a wider push for new routes across Eurasia and toward South Asia. The economic backdrop is also substantial. Official Uzbek figures put bilateral trade with Russia at around $13 billion in 2025, making Russia Uzbekistan’s second-largest trading partner after China. Uzbek reporting says that trade has grown sharply since 2017, with Russian investment in Uzbekistan approaching $5 billion. Officials have described the relationship as moving beyond simple trade toward industrial cooperation, technological partnerships, and longer value chains. The conference emphasized the growing role of direct regional links. Uzbek officials highlighted more than 200 regional initiatives worth over $4 billion and identified Tatarstan as a key partner in industry, petrochemicals, engineering, information technology, and education. Projects linked to the Himgrad industrial park model and branches of Kazan Federal University in Uzbekistan show how cooperation now extends through regions, universities, and industrial zones, not just central governments. Energy remains a key part of the relationship. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, on March 24, Uzbekistan and Russia advanced work on Uzbekistan’s planned nuclear power project in the Jizzakh region. Uzbekistan’s nuclear agency, Uzatom, and Russia’s Rosatom signed new documents and began initial concrete works for a small-capacity unit, describing the step as moving the project into a new implementation phase. Transit formed another major part of the agenda. Uzbek reporting states that participants discussed modernizing northern routes and developing a southern route through Afghanistan toward ports on the Indian Ocean. This fits Uzbekistan’s longer effort to turn Termez into a logistics hub for Afghan and South Asian trade. The city hosts the Termez International Trade Center, designed to simplify border trade and business access. The timing also reflects wider regional pressures. TCA previously reported that the war involving Iran is placing a strain on southern routes and increasing the importance of alternative corridors. In that context, a Russia–Uzbekistan meeting focused on trade and transport in Termez underscores how both countries are linking bilateral cooperation to shifting regional logistics. The meeting in Termez did not produce a major treaty or a...