Central Asia Gears Up For Another Trump Term

Leaders in Central Asia have congratulated Donald Trump on his election to another term as U.S. president, a development that governments in the region will watch closely for its impact on trade, geopolitical tensions and other priorities. Central Asian governments generally seek to balance their relationships with the West alongside more entrenched ties to nearby Russia and China, and are likely to be sensitive to any disruption of the status quo as the United States transitions from the Biden administration to another Trump term. Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in the election on Tuesday, making an extraordinary political comeback and promising that he will deliver “the golden age of America.” Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev sent a message of congratulations to Trump in which he reaffirmed Uzbekistan’s commitment to “deepening the strategic partnership” with the United States, Mirziyoyev’s press office said in a statement. “In his letter, he emphasized shared goals for enhanced cooperation across trade, security, and regional stability, marking a new chapter” in relations between Uzbekistan and the United States, the statement said. Last week, Uzbekistan wrapped up talks with the United States as part of its campaign to join the World Trade Organization by early 2026. President Sadyr Japarov of Kyrgyzstan sent a similar message, according to media reports. "I believe that your leadership experience and deep knowledge will create opportunities for further deepening of comprehensive cooperation between Kyrgyzstan and the United States of America, based on the principles of mutual respect,” Japarov said. In comments relayed to Trump, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev “expressed confidence that bilateral cooperation in the areas of security, nuclear non-proliferation, and investment would continue to develop consistently,” his office said. Tokayev wished Trump success in efforts to ensure “global stability and security.” There is likely to be basic continuity on matters such as anti-terror cooperation and a stated commitment to trade relations between the U.S. and Central Asia. However, one area of uncertainty is Trump’s warning that he will intensify tariffs on U.S. imports of goods from China, a major economic player across Central Asia. That, in turn, could lead to major fallout for the global economy. Another prominent question is whether Trump will push Western-backed Ukraine to reach a peace deal with Russia nearly three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion. Central Asian nations – specifically, the five former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – have sought a position of neutrality, maintaining their relationships with Russia without offering clear support for the Russian military campaign. Relationships in the region might be due for recalibration if Russian President Vladimir Putin emerges emboldened from any Trump initiative in the conflict. Tokayev has already called for peace efforts to bring the war to an end, describing Russia as “militarily invincible.” There are concerns that Trump will erode U.S. democratic institutions in his second term, a potential disappointment for groups that would like to see the U.S. campaign harder for democratic freedoms in Central Asia. Trump has also promised mass deportations and...