Trump - The Times Of Central Asia

Viewing results 1 - 6 of 27

Abraham Accords

Kazakh Diplomacy: Why Tokayev Aligned Kazakhstan With the Abraham Accords

On November 6, 2025, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev confirmed that Kazakhstan had formally acceded to the Abraham Accords, aligning the Central Asian state with the U.S.-brokered diplomatic framework. Launched during Trump’s first presidential term, the Abraham Accords seek to expand diplomatic normalization between Israel and Muslim-majority states. Initially signed in September 2020 by Israel and the United Arab Emirates, and separately by Israel and Bahrain, the Abraham Accords were later expanded to include Morocco and Sudan. Within the broader Abraham Accords framework, Washington continues to seek Saudi Arabia’s participation, a step viewed as diplomatically significant given the kingdom’s custodianship of two of Islam’s holiest sites. However, the process was derailed following the outbreak of the Gaza war in late 2023, triggered by a Hamas attack on Israel. Riyadh has since insisted that normalization can only proceed once there is meaningful progress toward establishing a Palestinian state. Kazakhstan, a secular state with a Muslim-majority population, has maintained diplomatic ties with Israel since April 1992. Embassies were opened in 1996, and bilateral relations have expanded steadily, including in trade, defense, and humanitarian fields. In 2016, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Kazakhstan, highlighting the strength of this relationship. These longstanding ties help explain why Kazakhstan’s accession did not mark a shift in its bilateral relationship with Israel. Because Kazakhstan established full diplomatic relations with Israel decades ago, several analysts have described the country’s accession to the Abraham Accords as largely symbolic. Uzbek political scientist Kamoliddin Rabbimov argues that the decision was a calculated gesture rather than a shift in Kazakhstan’s geopolitical orientation. “The question arises: is Kazakhstan really ready to weaken its relations with China, Turkey, and Russia in order to join the American-Israeli alliance? I don’t think so,” Rabbimov said. “President Tokayev most likely just formally supported Trump’s initiative by saying ‘yes’ without putting any real geopolitical meaning into it. Nevertheless, even such a ‘yes’ is capable of slightly upsetting the balance in Kazakhstan’s foreign policy.” Giorgio Cafiero, the CEO of Washington-based Gulf State Analytics, views the move as strategic positioning. “Given the Trump administration’s determination to expand the scope of the Abraham Accords, this move by Kazakhstan was a relatively easy way to win the White House’s favor.” German analysts at Kettner Edelmetalle emphasize Kazakhstan’s natural resource wealth as a key factor. “The country has significant deposits of minerals and rare earth elements, resources that are indispensable for modern technologies. By strengthening ties with Washington, Astana apparently hopes to attract more American investment in this strategically important sector.” Eldar Mamedov, non-resident fellow at the Queens Institute and a former senior advisor to the European Parliament, views the development through the lens of geopolitical balancing. “The Abraham Accords are merely a tool in Astana’s deliberate efforts to diversify its geopolitical dependence on Moscow and strengthen its strategic relations with the United States,” he writes. “Perceiving them as the beginning of a new, ideologically defined bloc misinterprets the fundamentally pragmatic and self-interested nature of Kazakhstan’s calculations.” Kazakhstan’s accession to the Abraham Accords reflects...

Iran

The Trump Factor: Why Central Asia Has Remained Silent on Iran’s Protests

The wave of protests that erupted in Iran in late December and spread to at least 27 of the country’s 31 provinces has become the largest since 2022, when mass demonstrations followed the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in the custody of Iran’s morality police. The unrest has raised new concerns across the region about political stability, energy markets, and the risk of external intervention. Rights monitors say protests have been reported in hundreds of locations nationwide, with death and detention tolls still contested. Human rights groups and independent monitoring organizations estimate that dozens of people have been killed and more than 2,000 detained, while Iranian officials have offered varying accounts and blamed violence on what they describe as “rioters.” In Kazakhstan, observers are drawing comparisons to the country’s own January 2022 unrest, officially labeled an attempted coup that ended in a violent crackdown. But beyond the parallels with Kazakhstan’s ‘Qantar’ events, analysts are focusing on the wider implications, particularly the potential impact of Iran’s domestic turmoil on global oil markets. For Kazakhstan, the stakes are heightened by the country’s reliance on hydrocarbon exports and the sensitivity of global energy markets to supply shocks. Any sharp change in Iranian output, even if temporary, could place downward pressure on prices and complicate budget planning for oil-dependent economies across Central Asia. Kazakh financial analyst Rasul Rysmambetov has voiced concern that unrest in Iran could trigger a surge in oil production aimed at funding social spending, a move that could drive down global oil prices and harm Kazakhstan’s oil-dependent economy. “Iran could add half a million barrels a day within six months and cause oil prices to collapse, but it would not do so casually. The Middle East is very sensitive and knows how to negotiate. Still, if the protests persist, Tehran might ramp up production to finance social needs. [This would be] painful for Kazakhstan. If Venezuela is a bear cub, then Iran is a grizzly bear in the bushes with its oil,” Rysmambetov warned on his Telegram channel. While political unrest typically raises oil prices by increasing supply risk, analysts note that Iran’s response could be atypical. Faced with fiscal pressure, Tehran may opt to increase production to stabilize revenues, a move that would push prices lower despite heightened instability. Iran’s chronic social issues, exacerbated by inflation and the collapse of the national currency, have fueled public discontent for more than a decade. While the Iranian authorities acknowledge the severity of the economic crisis and have conceded that some demands are legitimate, they have also warned of further hardships. On January 5, the judiciary announced that no leniency would be shown toward those detained during the protests. Russian experts, meanwhile, have framed the unrest in geopolitical terms. Irina Fedorova of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies cited renewed sanctions, critical shortages of water and electricity, and foreign interference as the root causes. However, she dismissed the likelihood of regime change, pointing to disunity among opposition factions. “The difference...

International Diplomacy

Trump Signals G20 Invitation in Outreach to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Recent telephone conversations between the presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and United States President Donald Trump have generated significant international attention. Beyond routine diplomatic communication, the exchanges carry broader geopolitical implications for Central Asia. Trump has publicly stated his intention to invite the leaders of both countries to the G20 summit, which the United States will host in Miami in 2026. The announcement drew widespread international media coverage, highlighting growing global interest in the region. Official statements from Kazakhstan’s presidential office said that President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev held a lengthy conversation with Trump that covered a range of issues, including the conflict in Ukraine. Tokayev described the situation as complex, noting that territorial concerns remain central and require realistic compromises. He reiterated Kazakhstan’s readiness to offer a platform for negotiations, while clarifying that the country does not seek to act as a mediator. Notably, Kazakhstan’s official summary did not mention a potential G20 invitation, nor did the U.S. readout refer to peace talks. Uzbekistan’s statement likewise focused on strengthened political engagement, the launch of joint projects worth billions of dollars, the establishment of an American-Uzbek Business and Investment Council, and expanded regional cooperation, including within the C5+1 format, without explicitly mentioning the G20 summit Despite these omissions, Trump confirmed on his social network Truth Social that the U.S. plans to host the G20 next year and intends to invite the presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan as guests. At this stage, the announcement appears to be an expression of intent rather than a formal invitation. Nevertheless, the signal marks a notable shift in U.S. foreign policy priorities toward Central Asia. Even guest invitations for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan would amount to recognition of their growing roles as “middle powers” in global affairs, giving them a rare platform to engage directly with the world’s leading economies. Regional Context and Broader Dynamics The timing of the calls is significant. They followed an informal meeting of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) leaders in St. Petersburg, an event observers characterized as largely ceremonial. The summit was marked by the conspicuous absence of Azerbaijan’s president, who cited scheduling conflicts for his nonattendance. Preparations for the 2026 G20 summit are already underway. In mid-December, the first meeting of G20 Sherpas was held in Washington, bringing together representatives from the world’s leading economies and international organizations. Poland was invited as the only full guest of the U.S. presidency for this meeting. The State Department outlined key priorities for the upcoming summit: stimulating economic growth, ensuring access to reliable and affordable energy, and advancing innovative technologies. While the G20 is a forum rather than a formal international organization, and its decisions are advisory and shaped by differing member interests, participation would still provide Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with an influential platform. Direct engagement at this level would allow both countries to present their priorities on economic development and sustainable growth to a global audience.

Diplomacy

Tokayev, Mirziyoyev Have Telephone Conversations with Trump

According to Akorda, a phone conversation took place today between Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and U.S. President Donald Trump. The leaders spoke about their bilateral agenda and the current international situation, including in Ukraine. Tokayev confirmed his commitment to implementing the agreements reached during his visit to Washington in November of this year. He emphasized the complexity of resolving the war in Ukraine. Tokayev also invited Trump to visit Kazakhstan. Almost at the same time, Trump wrote on his social media site, Truth Social: "This morning, I had two wonderful phone conversations with Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, and Shavkat Mirziyoyev, President of the Republic of Uzbekistan. We discussed the importance of establishing peace in ongoing conflicts, as well as expanding trade and cooperation between our countries. Relations with both countries are impressive. The United States will host the G20 summit next year, and we will invite both of these leaders to join us as guests at this very important event, which will take place in Miami!"

International Diplomacy

Mirziyoyev Secures Spotlight During U.S. Visit

In a significant diplomatic breakthrough, Uzbekistan emerged as a standout player during this year’s United Nations General Assembly events in New York. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev not only secured a high-profile meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, but also signed a landmark $8 billion deal with Boeing to purchase Dreamliner jets, a move that drew praise from Trump and captured the attention of the international business community. Trump publicly endorsed the agreement on social media, calling Mirziyoyev “a man of his word” and noting the deal would create “over 35,000 jobs” in the United States. Mirziyoyev’s visit included a high-level investment roundtable with executives from leading U.S. corporations and financial institutions. According to Forbes, trade between the two countries has quadrupled under Mirziyoyev’s leadership, with more than 300 American companies now active in Uzbekistan. Strategic sectors such as rare-earth metals and critical minerals took center stage during the discussions. Among the key meetings was one with the vice president of the Colorado School of Mines, who expressed support for establishing a research center in Uzbekistan. Other topics included joint initiatives in banking, information technology, transportation, and energy infrastructure. The scale of the Boeing deal served as a symbolic anchor to broader efforts: positioning Uzbekistan as a key connector between Central Asia and the Western economy. This aligns with a larger strategic pivot that analysts have long advocated. As U.S. engagement in Central Asia expands, countries like Uzbekistan are increasingly looking to diversify away from dependence on Russia and China. Forbes noted that the Trump administration is building on foundations laid by its predecessor by promoting regional initiatives such as the Zangezur Corridor, referred to as the “Trump Corridor”, aimed at linking Central Asia to global markets without passing through Russian territory. Mirziyoyev’s face-to-face meeting with Trump, followed by the public endorsement, also plays into shifting domestic narratives. It signals growing diplomatic credibility and a willingness to operate as an equal on the global stage. The convergence of political recognition and commercial investment may mark a turning point in Uzbekistan’s foreign policy, not just as a recipient of aid, but as a proactive economic actor. With the Boeing order and growing support from U.S. business leaders, Uzbekistan is staking its future on deepening ties with the West. Coupled with ongoing domestic reforms, the country is making a strategic bet that modernization and diversified partnerships will yield long-term dividends.

International Diplomacy

Tokayev Congratulates Putin After Alaska Meeting; Russian Leader Briefs Mirziyoyev

Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to the leaders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan by telephone on Sunday, briefing them about his talks in Alaska with U.S. President Donald Trump about ending the war in Ukraine. Trade and joint energy projects between Russia and the Central Asian countries were also discussed. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan congratulated Putin on “the results” of the meeting with Trump and said “the negotiations contributed to a better understanding by the American side of the Russian position on Ukraine, which will help find common ground on this complex issue,” Tokayev’s office said. “Kassym-Jomart Tokayev considers the Alaska summit a breakthrough event in terms of strengthening Russia's international positions and mutual understanding on the world stage,” the office said. Even so, uncertainty remains. Putin and Trump provided few details about their meeting on Friday, leaving Alaska without the Ukraine-backed cease-fire that Trump had previously demanded. Ukraine and its European allies are concerned that Trump could back a proposed deal under which Moscow secures more Ukrainian territory as part of a resolution. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders are scheduled to meet Trump at the White House on Monday to press their case for a peace with security guarantees. In their phone call, Putin informed President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan of the “main results” of his meeting with Trump, Mirziyoyev’s office said. “The leader of Uzbekistan expressed support for the agreements reached and voiced hope for a swift settlement of the situation surrounding Ukraine,” the office said. Putin and Mirziyoyev spoke about accelerating trade between their two countries, while Tokayev thanked the Russian leader for collaborating in the field of energy, a possible reference to Russia’s leading role in building Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant. The Kremlin released similar statements about the phone calls.