Diplomacy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Nuclear Disarmament

Central Asian States Call for New Arms Controls as Nuclear Framework Weakens

Foreign ministers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have called for new, verifiable arms control mechanisms to prevent a nuclear arms race, warning that international disarmament efforts are losing ground. In a joint statement issued on September 8 to mark 20 years since the signing of the Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, the five governments expressed concern over stalled disarmament, the end of key agreements, and the modernization of nuclear arsenals. They urged nuclear powers to resume negotiations. The statement comes seven months after New START, the last U.S.-Russian strategic nuclear arms treaty, expired on February 5. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said its expiration left the two countries without binding limits on their strategic nuclear arsenals for the first time in more than half a century. President Donald Trump has criticized New START as a “badly negotiated deal” and called instead for a new, modernized arms control treaty that would include China. The ministers also cited the failure of the Eleventh Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which ended without a consensus outcome on May 22. Kazakhstan had already advanced a similar position. As TCA reported, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev used the August 29 anniversary of the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site’s closure to call for negotiations among nuclear powers, the entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, and renewed multilateral action to reduce nuclear risks. Kazakhstan’s connection to the issue extends beyond diplomacy. The Soviet Union conducted 456 nuclear tests at Semipalatinsk between 1949 and 1989. Kazakhstan closed the site in 1991 and subsequently relinquished the nuclear arsenal it had inherited after the Soviet collapse. The regional treaty was signed in Semipalatinsk on September 8, 2006, and entered into force in 2009. It established the first nuclear-weapon-free zone located entirely in the Northern Hemisphere, directly bordering two nuclear-weapon states, Russia and China. That history gives Kazakhstan a distinctive place in regional nuclear diplomacy. Uzbekistan originated the proposal for the zone, presenting it at the UN General Assembly in September 1993. The September 8 statement explicitly acknowledges Uzbekistan’s initiative while crediting all five countries with establishing the zone. The statement also recognizes Kyrgyzstan for initiating the International Day for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Awareness, observed annually on March 5, and Turkmenistan for chairing the December 2024 anniversary meeting in Ashgabat. Kazakhstan has also helped coordinate cooperation beyond Central Asia. In August 2024, it hosted a conference in Astana with the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs to strengthen cooperation among nuclear-weapon-free zones, following an earlier meeting in 2019. The five states also renewed their appeal for the United States to ratify a protocol providing security assurances to the region. In May 2014, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States signed the protocol on negative security assurances, committing not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against the five Central Asian treaty members. The other four signatories have ratified it. Washington has not. The request is longstanding. The five governments made the same appeal...

Russia's War in Ukraine

Why Tokayev Urged Putin to Freeze the War in Ukraine

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has delivered his most direct public appeal to Vladimir Putin for an end to Russia's war in Ukraine. Speaking alongside the Russian president during the 22nd Kazakhstan-Russia Interregional Cooperation Forum in Omsk on July 25, Tokayev called for freezing the war and returning to what he described as the "Istanbul Formula 2.0." For many observers, the statement marked a significant departure from the cautious language traditionally used by leaders across the post-Soviet region. Although Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly criticized the war and reaffirmed support for Ukraine's territorial integrity, Tokayev's intervention was notable because he advanced a concrete proposal directly to Putin on Russian territory. Tokayev's remarks were consistent with Kazakhstan's long-standing foreign policy, which has emphasized negotiated settlements and diplomatic conflict resolution. While Russia remains one of Kazakhstan's largest trading partners and a crucial infrastructure partner, Astana has not recognized Moscow's annexation of Ukrainian territory. The war has also become a direct economic concern for Kazakhstan. More than 80% of the country's crude exports move through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), whose Black Sea export route has recently been affected by attacks on tankers and related security incidents. Those disruptions have highlighted Kazakhstan's continued dependence on the CPC corridor and the risks posed by an expanding conflict zone. Tokayev's Proposal According to the Kremlin transcript, Tokayev told Putin that he had been receiving “many signals” from Europe and the United States regarding the current state of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and had already discussed them with the Russian president by telephone. Tokayev also stressed that he regarded the conflict as an interstate war rather than a civil war. He added that Kazakhstan had always treated the Ukrainian people, their culture and their language with respect. He further said Putin had demonstrated “maximum diplomatic flexibility” during his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Anchorage, Alaska. “This is simply my humble opinion, since people keep asking me: perhaps the conflict should already be frozen, and we should return to the ‘Istanbul Formula 2.0,’ because significant results had been achieved there. Then, naturally, under guarantees from the major powers, including Russia, it would be possible to move toward long-awaited peace,” Tokayev said. Tokayev also made clear that he did not intend to serve as an official mediator in any future negotiations. Tokayev did not define the formula in detail. Russia and Ukraine held talks in Istanbul in 2022 and resumed direct negotiations there in 2025, but neither round produced a settlement. It remains unclear whether he envisaged a ceasefire along the current front line, how occupied territory would be treated, or what guarantees any major powers would provide. Planned or Spontaneous? Major strategic decisions in the post-Soviet space have traditionally been shaped behind closed doors. That is one reason why Tokayev's remarks, delivered while sitting beside Putin, immediately attracted the attention of political analysts. Several experts argue that such a proposal was unlikely to have been made spontaneously. Tokayev's call to freeze the fighting and resume negotiations...

Caspian Pipeline Consortium

Ukraine Says No Evidence of Role in Attacks on Tankers Loading Kazakh Oil: Statement in Full

The Times of Central Asia has reported on drone attacks against tankers serving the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal, including vessels loading Kazakh crude. Kazakhstan condemned the attacks on July 17 and 19 and called for an immediate halt. A fourth tanker, NELSA, was struck while loading on July 20. TCA asked Victor Mayko, Ukraine’s ambassador to Kazakhstan, to respond. His statement is published below in full. “Ukraine understands the concerns of the Kazakhstani side regarding the incidents that occurred on July 17 and 19 involving tankers loading Kazakhstani oil through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s marine terminals in the waters of the Port of Novorossiysk. Let me put it this way—we understand and share these concerns. “At the same time, I am convinced that any conclusions must be based solely on verified facts. As of today, there is no evidence whatsoever that the attacks in question were carried out by the Ukrainian side. Therefore, I ask that you refrain from making hasty and unfounded accusations, whether direct or indirect, against Ukraine. “I would like to point out that the relevant Ukrainian authorities very recently warned of the possibility of Russian provocations, including those involving the use of Ukrainian drones. We have informed our international partners that Russia is actively employing various tactics: Russian electronic warfare systems are capable of disrupting the operation of Ukrainian drones, disabling them, and, in some cases, taking control of them. “That is precisely why the possibility that the Russian side may be using such drones to carry out provocations and attempts to discredit Ukraine must be thoroughly investigated. “War always brings immeasurable suffering and grief to millions of people. But even in the midst of this immense tragedy, there are certain rules recognized by international law, and violations of these rules constitute war crimes. It is forbidden to kill civilians. It is forbidden to torture children, women, and the elderly. It is forbidden to destroy civilian infrastructure in the middle of winter, leaving millions of people without heat, water, electricity, or even shelter. It is forbidden to deliberately kill rescue workers and medical personnel who are rushing to the scene of the tragedy to help the victims. It is forbidden to shoot at ambulances transporting the seriously wounded. The use of chemical weapons, including against the civilian population, is prohibited. It is unacceptable to attack civilian ships carrying Ukrainian grain bound for countries in Southeast Asia and Africa, thereby condemning millions of people to starvation. I could go on with this tragic list. Everything listed here constitutes war crimes. And those responsible for them must inevitably be punished. “Our principled position, even against this backdrop, remains unchanged. The Armed Forces of Ukraine do not strike civilian targets, including those located on the territory of the Russian Federation. Legitimate military targets are exclusively military facilities and infrastructure that support the Russian war machine, which for more than four years now has been waging an armed, unprovoked aggression of unprecedented severity against Ukraine, its army, its...

Diplomacy

Tashkent and Kabul Rush to Deny Taliban Minister’s Criticism of Uzbekistan

A diplomatic row erupted between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan this week after a senior Taliban official was reported to have said that Islam in Uzbekistan exists only in name. After the remarks were widely covered by Uzbek and Afghan media, officials on both sides rejected the reports, although questions remain over whether excerpts of the speech were published and later deleted by the Taliban ministry itself. The dispute is sensitive because Uzbekistan has built close working relations with the Taliban administration on trade, transport, energy, and border security, while remaining wary of religious extremism and stopping short of formally recognizing its government. Public criticism of Uzbekistan’s religious policies by a senior Taliban figure could therefore strain a relationship both sides have worked carefully to preserve. The controversy centers on Sheikh Mohammad Khalid Hanafi, the Taliban’s acting minister for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice. Afghanistan International reported that Hanafi referred to Samarkand, Bukhara, and Termez, Uzbek cities associated with prominent Islamic scholars including Imam al-Bukhari and Imam al-Tirmidhi. He was quoted as saying that Islam in the cities remained “only on people’s lips,” and blaming religious scholars for leaving the enforcement of Islamic rules to the government. Some regional media paraphrased the remark as a claim that “only the name of Islam remains” in Uzbekistan. The comments were reportedly made during a speech in Afghanistan’s Paktia Province. Afghanistan International said Hanafi’s ministry published several excerpts from the address. Reports cited by Uzbek media said the passage concerning Uzbekistan also appeared on a ministry spokesman’s account on X before being removed. The reports attracted widespread attention in Uzbekistan, prompting the country’s embassy in Kabul to seek an explanation. On July 16, the embassy said it had received a letter from the Taliban’s Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice rejecting what it described as distorted reporting intended to damage relations between the neighboring countries. The letter praised Uzbekistan as the homeland of major Islamic scholars, including Imam al-Bukhari, and stressed the countries’ shared religious, historical, and cultural ties. It said statements presented as criticism of Uzbekistan “do not correspond to the truth” and described the reports as a distortion of the facts. However, the letter did not explicitly state that Hanafi had never made the remarks or explain why the passage was reportedly removed. Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a stronger denial. Speaking to Portal24.uz, ministry spokesperson Omonulla Fayziyev described the claims as “completely unfounded” and “disinformation.” Fayziyev said no such statement had been officially issued or published by Afghan state media. He added that Uzbekistan’s ambassador had discussed the controversy directly with the Taliban authorities. That explanation leaves the central question unresolved. The Uzbek and Taliban statements reject the reporting, yet neither directly addresses Afghanistan International’s account that the ministry itself released excerpts from Hanafi’s speech. Uzbekistan has emerged as one of the Central Asian countries most actively engaged with the Taliban since its return to power in 2021. The two sides are expanding trade...

Central Asia + Japan

Patient Capital, Fast Deals: Japan and South Korea Take Different Paths into Central Asia

Japan and South Korea have reached the same strategic conclusion: Central Asia matters to their economic security. Yet they are pursuing that goal through markedly different playbooks. In December 2025, Tokyo hosted the first leaders' summit of the "Central Asia plus Japan" Dialogue, 21 years after the format was launched. All five Central Asian presidents attended. Japan set a target of three trillion yen in business projects across the region over five years - roughly $19 billion at the time - while placing critical-mineral supply chains among the summit's priority areas. The bilateral announcements were equally significant. Uzbekistan presented a proposed project portfolio worth more than $12 billion and called for a joint investment platform to advance it. Kazakhstan and Japan announced a package of public- and private-sector agreements worth $3.7 billion. These included a long-term uranium contract and an offtake agreement under which Kazakhstan's Eurasian Resources Group would supply gallium to Mitsubishi Corporation RTM Japan. The timing was no accident. By May 2026, Chinese shipments to Japan of dysprosium and terbium remained close to zero, while exports of finished rare earth magnets to Japan fell 35% from the previous month. These materials are essential to high-performance magnets. For Tokyo, diversifying critical mineral supply is no longer a distant policy objective; it is an immediate industrial requirement. South Korea has been moving toward the same destination by a different route. During then-President Yoon Suk Yeol's state visit to Kazakhstan in 2024, the two countries signed a critical minerals memorandum allowing Korean companies to participate in the exploration and development of lithium, chromium, uranium, and rare earths. Seoul is now preparing to host the first Korea-Central Asia summit on September 16-17, 2026, elevating years of bilateral and multilateral engagement to the leaders' level. [caption id="attachment_52351" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: Japan Cabinet Public Affairs Office[/caption] Why Central Asia Counts Both Japan and South Korea are resource-poor manufacturing powers whose leading industries depend on secure supplies of imported minerals. South Korea imports more than 95% of the critical minerals it consumes. Japan received its own warning in 2010, when Chinese rare earth shipments were disrupted during a territorial dispute, and the pressure has returned in a sharper form in 2026. Central Asia cannot replace China in the short term, but it offers Tokyo and Seoul a credible route toward diversification. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan combine substantial mineral potential with governments eager to attract investment, technology, and new export markets. Kazakhstan is already a major producer of uranium and chromium, and has significant copper, titanium, and rare earth prospects. In April 2025, Kazakhstan announced the possible discovery of a rare earth deposit containing more than 20 million metric tons of resources. If further exploration confirms that estimate, the country could possess one of the world's largest rare earth resource bases. However, the distinction between a resource estimate and a usable supply chain is crucial. A discovery is not a producing mine, and a mine is not a processing industry. Exploration, environmental approvals, infrastructure, separation, refining, and...

Strategic Partnership

Uzbekistan and Belarus Establish Strategic Partnership in Minsk

Uzbekistan and Belarus have established a strategic partnership following President Shavkat Mirziyoyev's official visit to Minsk, where the two governments signed a broad package of economic, labor, scientific, and cultural agreements. According to the Uzbek presidential press service, Mirziyoyev visited Minsk on July 8-9 at the invitation of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. He was welcomed with an official ceremony at the Palace of Independence before the two leaders held both one-on-one and expanded talks with their delegations. The visit marked a notable milestone in a relationship that has expanded steadily in recent years. Diplomatic relations between Uzbekistan and Belarus were established on January 21, 1993, but Uzbekistan opened its first embassy in Minsk only in March 2018. Before that, the Uzbek Embassy in Russia also covered Belarus. The relationship is developing while Belarus remains under extensive European Union sanctions over human rights abuses and its support for Russia's war against Ukraine. Speaking after the talks, Mirziyoyev said the visit had become “a historic event in the development of Uzbek-Belarusian relations.” He said the newly signed declaration “marks the beginning of a new chapter in strengthening interstate cooperation” and demonstrates both countries’ commitment to long-term partnership. The leaders highlighted the rapid growth in economic ties. According to the Uzbek side, bilateral trade has nearly tripled over the past five years and approached $1 billion by the end of 2025, while trade during the first months of 2026 rose by another 30%. Official figures differ according to methodology. The Uzbek side said bilateral trade approached $1 billion in 2025, while Belarusian trade figures put goods trade at almost $855 million and services at $207.9 million. Belarusian state news agency BelTA also said around 230 enterprises with Belarusian capital are registered in Uzbekistan and that Belarus had a positive trade balance of more than $517 million. Both presidents said the target of $2 billion in annual trade is achievable by 2030. To support that goal, the two governments adopted a 2026-2030 action plan covering trade, economic, social, and humanitarian cooperation. The plan includes measures to expand collaboration in agriculture, mechanical engineering, pharmaceuticals, electrical engineering, microelectronics, textiles, furniture production, and other manufacturing sectors. One of the most significant areas discussed was nuclear energy. The Uzbek presidential press service said the parties agreed to draw on Belarusian experience in the construction of Uzbekistan’s first nuclear power plant and related infrastructure. Belarus operates the Russian-financed Ostrovets plant, whose two VVER-1200 units were built by Atomstroyexport. Uzbekistan’s own project is being developed with Russia’s Rosatom and is planned to combine two VVER-1000 reactors with two smaller RITM-200N units. Political analyst Mukhtor Nazirov said the declaration represented a qualitative change and could create opportunities for investment, technology transfer, and industrial cooperation. He described nuclear cooperation as “one of the most important components of the strategic partnership,” arguing that it required a particularly high level of trust. Labor migration also emerged as a major theme. During the talks, Lukashenko invited Uzbek citizens, especially families, to move to Belarus to...