Trump Administration - The Times Of Central Asia

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Trump Administration

U.S. to Pause Immigrant Visa Processing; Central Asia Affected

The U.S. State Department said on Wednesday that it will stop immigrant visa processing from 75 countries, and some reports said the affected nations include several in Central Asia. The measure is part of a broad crackdown on immigration that has unfolded during the second term of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has said many people from other countries are threatening U.S. security and taking advantage of American resources. Critics say immigration raids and some other administration initiatives have gone too far, actually making U.S. cities less safe and violating basic rights. “The State Department will pause immigrant visa processing from 75 countries whose migrants take welfare from the American people at unacceptable rates. The freeze will remain active until the U.S. can ensure that new immigrants will not extract wealth from the American people,” the U.S. agency said on X. “The pause impacts dozens of countries – including Somalia, Haiti, Iran, and Eritrea – whose immigrants often become public charges on the United States upon arrival,” the State Department said. “We are working to ensure the generosity of the American people will no longer be abused.” The statement did not list all the countries affected by the new measure, which takes effect on January 21. Nor did it say how long the pause will last. However, Fox News Digital, which reported that it had seen a State Department memo about the new policy, published a list of what it said were the 75 affected countries. It included Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were not on the list. Some other media outlets reported the same information. The State Department policy appeared to be partly linked to a Minnesota scandal in which dozens of people, including many Somali-Americans, were convicted of defrauding the state of welfare funds. Minneapolis, Minnesota’s biggest city, is currently a flashpoint for tension and protests over U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations. The new State Department measure does not apply to non-immigrant visas, which would include people traveling to the United States for tourism or business. But additional restrictions are also in place for people seeking those temporary visas. Nationals from 38 countries, including Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, are subject to U.S. visa bonds under a State Department policy. The policy took effect for citizens from Turkmenistan on January 1 and will be implemented for nationals from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan starting on January 21.

U.S.-Kazakhstan Relations

Kazakhstan Elevates U.S. Ties to Presidential-Level

Kazakhstan’s relationship with the United States is entering a more explicitly strategic phase under Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, marked by a shift in how Astana manages its most consequential external partnerships. As economic ties deepen and geopolitical coordination expands across energy, investment, and Eurasian connectivity, engagement with Washington is increasingly being treated as a presidential priority rather than a routine diplomatic file. In this context, Kazakhstan has formally elevated its engagement with the United States by appointing a presidential representative to steer bilateral negotiations on priority issues. By presidential decree, Ambassador Yerzhan Kazykhan—Kazakhstan’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Office in Geneva and a veteran diplomat with prior postings as ambassador to the United States and the United Kingdom—has been designated as the President’s Representative for negotiations with Washington. The appointment places key aspects of the U.S. relationship under direct presidential oversight from the Akorda, the presidential office. Kazykhan has previously served as foreign minister and assistant to the president, and has held senior roles within both the Foreign Ministry and the presidential administration. His experience in Washington and in multilateral settings provides institutional continuity as the bilateral agenda broadens to encompass investment, energy security, and regional connectivity, while day-to-day execution remains within established diplomatic channels. Drivers Behind the Elevation of U.S.–Kazakhstan Engagement The decision reflects how rapidly the scope of U.S.–Kazakhstan engagement has expanded and how Kazakhstan is positioning itself as a major investment and strategic connectivity hub. The United States is Kazakhstan’s largest source of foreign direct investment, with hundreds of American companies operating across the economy. Chevron, Kazakhstan’s single largest foreign investor, has invested more than $50 billion over time, anchoring long-term U.S. corporate presence in the country’s energy sector. This investment relationship gained further momentum in 2025. At the C5+1 leaders’ summit in Washington, Kazakhstan and U.S. partners announced nearly $17 billion in new commercial agreements and investment commitments across energy, transport, and industrial cooperation. The package was publicly highlighted by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, underscoring senior-level U.S. political backing for deeper economic engagement with Kazakhstan. Beyond investment, the bilateral agenda has expanded into strategic and geopolitical domains. Kazakhstan’s decision to join the Abraham Accords marked a notable political alignment with a U.S.-led diplomatic initiative, extending the framework’s reach beyond its original Middle Eastern focus. Connectivity has become central to U.S. policy thinking. The Middle Corridor is increasingly viewed as an eastward extension of the post-Azerbaijan–Armenia Caucasus transit framework, also called the ‘Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity’, aimed at reopening and securing east–west routes across the South Caucasus. Extending it through Kazakhstan links Central Asia to Europe while reducing reliance on Russia or Iran. Trade and energy ties reinforce this trajectory. Kazakhstan is the world’s largest uranium producer and a major supplier to the United States, making the U.S. one of its most important export markets for nuclear fuel. As U.S. policy places greater emphasis on secure and diversified supply chains, Kazakhstan’s role in critical energy inputs and transit infrastructure has taken on added strategic...

U.S. Ambassador

New U.S. Ambassador to Kazakhstan to Build “Momentum” on Trade, Diplomacy

Julie Stufft, the new U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan, is a career diplomat who has said her goal is to ensure that U.S. companies in the Central Asian country have not just an “even playing field” but are also “the partners of choice” in a region where Russia and China are the dominant trading partners. Stufft, who made those remarks during her confirmation hearing in the U.S. Congress in July, presented her credentials to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan in Astana on Friday. She has previously worked on COVID-19 travel policies and U.S. visa processing worldwide and was most recently deputy assistant to the president and executive secretary of the National Security Council. Stufft has served as deputy chief of mission in the U.S. Embassies in Moldova and Djibouti, and was also a diplomat in Russia, Ethiopia, and Poland. One of Stufft’s daughters, Nora, is a student at the U.S. Air Force Academy in Colorado. After the credentials ceremony in Astana, Stufft said Tokayev and U.S. President Donald Trump have a “very close relationship” and that there was impetus for further collaboration between Kazakhstan and the United States. “We have so much momentum from President Tokayev´s recent visit to Washington that we have to build on this,” Stufft said in reference to a November summit hosted by Trump and attended by the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The meeting focused on securing big trade deals as well as U.S access to minerals in Central Asia that are critical to energy and other industries. Another U.S. goal is to counter the longstanding influence of Russia and China in Central Asian countries, whose leaders seek to balance their relationships with the big powers. Last month, in another round of diplomatic outreach, Trump invited Tokayev and President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan to attend the G20 summit in Miami later this year. In addition to holding large reserves of critical minerals, Kazakhstan is a top uranium producer and a major oil exporter. China and Russia are its biggest overall trading partners. While U.S. trade with Kazakhstan is relatively small in comparison, the relationship is growing. “My goal as ambassador, if confirmed, would be to make sure that U.S. companies have an even playing field so that they can do investment in Kazakhstan, and also that U.S. companies are the partners of choice in Kazakhstan, instead of Chinese or other companies,” Stufft said in her confirmation hearing last year. The previous U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan, Daniel Rosenblum, resigned from the post in January 2025.

U.S. Visa Bond

Kyrgyz Official Concerned Over “High Barriers” in U.S. Visa Bond Policy

Kyrgyzstan should review its visa-free system for American citizens after the United States expanded its visa bond policy to include the Central Asian country, according to a senior Kyrgyz official who said there should be “mutual respect.” The suggestion that there should be some reciprocity following the U.S. measure came from Edil Baisalov, deputy chairman of Kyrgyzstan´s Cabinet of Ministers and a prominent ally of President Sadyr Japarov. Currently, U.S. travelers to Kyrgyzstan can stay for up to 30 days without obtaining a visa. “I believe that we should initiate a review of our visa-free regime for U.S. citizens following the new visa requirements announced yesterday by the State Department, under which Kyrgyz citizens are required to pay a visa deposit of up to $15,000 when submitting visa applications,” Baisalov said on X on Thursday. “Visa policy is a matter of parity and mutual respect. If such high barriers are introduced for our citizens, we cannot pretend that nothing has happened.” However, he did not offer any analysis about what, if any, changes should be made to the visa-free system for U.S. visitors. Any visa dispute with the far more powerful United States could be risky for Kyrgyzstan, which has meanwhile joined with other Central Asian countries in trying to develop closer ties to the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. Nationals from 38 countries, including Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, are subject to visa bonds under the U.S. State Department policy, which is part of a wider crackdown on immigration. The policy took effect for citizens from Turkmenistan on January 1 and will be implemented for nationals from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan starting on January 21. “Any citizen or national traveling on a passport issued by one of these countries, who is found otherwise eligible for a B1/B2 visa, must post a bond for $5,000, $10,000, or $15,000. The amount is determined at the time of the visa interview,” the State Department said. B-1 (business) and B-2 (tourism) refer to non-immigrant visas for people who want to stay temporarily in the U.S. Visa holders who have posted bond are also required to enter the United States via designated international airports, including seven in the U.S. and two in Canada. The U.S. visa bond policy is a setback for Kyrgyzstan, which had previously appealed to the United States to relax its visa requirements. Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Zheenbek Kulubaev raised the issue during a meeting with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York in September.

Iran

The Trump Factor: Why Central Asia Has Remained Silent on Iran’s Protests

The wave of protests that erupted in Iran in late December and spread to at least 27 of the country’s 31 provinces has become the largest since 2022, when mass demonstrations followed the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in the custody of Iran’s morality police. The unrest has raised new concerns across the region about political stability, energy markets, and the risk of external intervention. Rights monitors say protests have been reported in hundreds of locations nationwide, with death and detention tolls still contested. Human rights groups and independent monitoring organizations estimate that dozens of people have been killed and more than 2,000 detained, while Iranian officials have offered varying accounts and blamed violence on what they describe as “rioters.” In Kazakhstan, observers are drawing comparisons to the country’s own January 2022 unrest, officially labeled an attempted coup that ended in a violent crackdown. But beyond the parallels with Kazakhstan’s ‘Qantar’ events, analysts are focusing on the wider implications, particularly the potential impact of Iran’s domestic turmoil on global oil markets. For Kazakhstan, the stakes are heightened by the country’s reliance on hydrocarbon exports and the sensitivity of global energy markets to supply shocks. Any sharp change in Iranian output, even if temporary, could place downward pressure on prices and complicate budget planning for oil-dependent economies across Central Asia. Kazakh financial analyst Rasul Rysmambetov has voiced concern that unrest in Iran could trigger a surge in oil production aimed at funding social spending, a move that could drive down global oil prices and harm Kazakhstan’s oil-dependent economy. “Iran could add half a million barrels a day within six months and cause oil prices to collapse, but it would not do so casually. The Middle East is very sensitive and knows how to negotiate. Still, if the protests persist, Tehran might ramp up production to finance social needs. [This would be] painful for Kazakhstan. If Venezuela is a bear cub, then Iran is a grizzly bear in the bushes with its oil,” Rysmambetov warned on his Telegram channel. While political unrest typically raises oil prices by increasing supply risk, analysts note that Iran’s response could be atypical. Faced with fiscal pressure, Tehran may opt to increase production to stabilize revenues, a move that would push prices lower despite heightened instability. Iran’s chronic social issues, exacerbated by inflation and the collapse of the national currency, have fueled public discontent for more than a decade. While the Iranian authorities acknowledge the severity of the economic crisis and have conceded that some demands are legitimate, they have also warned of further hardships. On January 5, the judiciary announced that no leniency would be shown toward those detained during the protests. Russian experts, meanwhile, have framed the unrest in geopolitical terms. Irina Fedorova of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies cited renewed sanctions, critical shortages of water and electricity, and foreign interference as the root causes. However, she dismissed the likelihood of regime change, pointing to disunity among opposition factions. “The difference...

Rare Earth Elements

Central Asia, Vanadium, and the U.S. National Security Strategy

Dated November 2025 and released publicly in early December, the U.S. National Security Strategy links overseas trade and investment, but overlooks Central Asia as a target region for critical minerals. This oversight merits reconsideration in the NSS’s next iteration, given the region’s known natural resource base, openness to foreign investment, proficiency in mining operations, low processing costs, and manageable geopolitical risks. As governments and businesses review supply-chain resilience for critical minerals, vanadium – not one of the 17 rare earth metals – has increasingly become a strategically relevant rather than optional or cyclical commodity. It is widely used in high-strength steel, grid-scale energy storage functions such as redox flow batteries, and infrastructure with defense and industrial applications. A recent letter from the U.S. Congress highlights a critical shortfall of vanadium in the United States: with 14,000 metric tons consumed in 2024, only 3,800 tons were produced domestically. Imports, mainly from Brazil and South Africa, are at risk due to shifting market conditions, meaning the U.S. needs a more structured and focused industrial-like approach to counter unnecessary import dependencies and geopolitical stresses. U.S. supply is secured solely through imports and recycling, given that the mining of vanadium-bearing mineral precursors is minimal to non-existent in the United States. With mining dominated by China and Russia, and with South African production in decline, today’s need to secure primary materials and supply chains means the U.S. must invest overseas until domestic mining is viable. What is needed is vertical integration from mine to final product – vanadium pentoxide (V205), vanadium trioxide (V2O3), and vanadium sulfate (VOSO₄ / V₂(SO₄)₃) for batteries. In an October Development Finance Corporation media release, DFC CEO Ben Black said that “Securing critical minerals is a paramount matter of U.S. strategic interest and economic prosperity.” That’s clearly beyond dispute. Central Asia and Vanadium Central Asia as a region fits within the U.S.’s broader geostrategic goals and geographic diversification plans aimed at building solid asset-based partnerships that go beyond raw material extraction and precarious trading arrangements. Last November's gathering of Central Asia’s five presidents at the White House finally placed the region firmly on the global map. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Paul Kapur has also been clear: “Under President Trump’s and Secretary Rubio’s leadership, we’re elevating the C5+1 partnership as a priority — a strategic priority and an economic priority.” Here, amongst critical minerals, vanadium surely emerges as a priority commodity, given the near absence of U.S. domestic mining. Kazakhstan leads Central Asia in vanadium mining and production, hosting the region’s most productive deposits. Established operations, strong infrastructure, cost advantages, supportive laws, tax incentives, and a free FX regime make the country highly attractive to investors. Kazakhstan has three vanadium assets—Balasausqandiq in advanced production and Lisakovsk and Kurumsak in exploration—making them attractive targets for miners or funds with long horizons and low-cost capital. Kyrgyzstan has scattered, under-explored vanadium deposits, including in the Jetim Mountain Range. Uzbekistan is expanding exploration, but the value is yet to...