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A New Great Game: Multipolar Competition in Central Asia

At a time when the European Union, China, and Turkey are seeking to strengthen their presence in Central Asia, the United States administration is consumed with bilaterally implementing a seismic shift in its trade policy with the entire world. Although this region of post-Soviet space is widely seen as a new front of rivalry between Washington and Beijing, in many aspects, American influence in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan lags far behind that of other actors. Culture (soft power) has always played an important role in the foreign policy of every great power. The Soviet Union was no exception. As a result, even today, Russian, rather than English, is still the lingua franca in Central Asia, although Moscow, following its invasion of Ukraine, has had a hard time preserving remnants of its former dominance in the region. Russian cinema, however, maintains a notable presence in most, if not all, Central Asian states. While Hollywood movies have a strong global presence, Russian films in Central Asia often act as a link between Western content and the region's cultural traditions. Millions of Central Asian migrants working in Russia also serve as a bridge between their nations and the Russian Federation, facilitating cultural exchange, economic ties, and the spread of the Russian language. However, Russia’s fiasco in Ukraine has created space for the EU to assert its influence in a region that has traditionally been in Moscow’s geopolitical orbit. Nevertheless, although Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, are Tajikistan are members of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, they have remained neutral in the Ukraine conflict. For Central Asian nations, the EU serves as a counterweight they can use to balance their relations with Moscow. The EU, however, faces strong economic competition from China. With a trade volume of $94.8 billion with Central Asian states, Beijing is positioning itself as the major economic power operating in the five regional nations. Although the European Union’s influence in Central Asia is expected to continue to grow in the coming years, if investment trends from recent years persist, the balance in the region will likely tilt towards China, which will increase its presence and influence at the expense of Russia. But where does the United States fit into this dynamic? Even though the U.S. is the largest economy in the world, with which almost everyone wants to engage, American bilateral trade with the region has never been particularly strong, with the exception of Kazakhstan. Interestingly enough, it is Astana that is expected to suffer the most among Central Asian actors due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs – 27% on Kazakhstan compared to 10% on all other nations in the region. Exceptions may be made for Kazakhstan’s critical minerals, however, which are now the third largest in the world based on a recent discovery, with reports suggesting that some goods, including “certain minerals that are not available in the United States,” as well as energy, will not be subject to the tariffs. According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry...

Trump’s Tariff Blitz Targets Global Imports, Kazakhstan Faces Harshest Impact in Central Asia

U.S. President Donald Trump has announced sweeping new tariffs on all goods imported into the United States, citing the need to protect American industry and jobs. Speaking at a White House press conference, Trump outlined a base tariff rate of 10% that will apply to 185 countries. However, several nations and blocs face significantly higher rates: China will see a 34% tariff, the European Union 20%, Switzerland 31%, and Israel 17%. The steepest tariffs were imposed on Vietnam (46%), Cambodia (49%), and Laos (48%). Notably absent from the list are Russia, Belarus, Mexico, Iran, Canada, and Belarus. Ukraine, however, will face the base 10% rate. Kazakhstan Hit with 27% Tariff The new U.S. duties also target Central Asian nations. According to a comparative chart published by the White House, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan will face 10% tariffs on their exports to the U.S. Meanwhile, Kazakhstani goods will be subject to a much higher rate of 27%. The White House document notes that Kazakhstani imports currently face a 54% tariff in Kazakhstan, figures that surprised local analysts, who have questioned the methodology behind the calculations. The rationale for the elevated rate on Kazakhstan remains unclear. However, the country's Ministry of Trade and Integration has initiated consultations with his U.S. counterparts to explore options for exempting certain goods. According to a preliminary analysis, many of Kazakhstan’s key exports fall under exceptions outlined in U.S. regulations. “In 2024, trade turnover between Kazakhstan and the United States amounted to $4.2 billion,” the ministry stated. “Kazakhstan's primary exports to the U.S. - crude oil, uranium, silver, and ferroalloys - constitute 92% of total exports and are included in the exemption list under the U.S. President’s decree on reciprocal tariffs.” Turning Tariffs Into Opportunities Despite the steep new tariffs, some experts believe the impact on Kazakhstan will be limited. Financial analyst Rasul Rysmambetov argues that Kazakhstan’s marginal role in global trade dynamics shields it from major economic fallout. “The real battle is between the U.S. and the world’s largest economies, China and the EU,” Rysmambetov wrote on his Telegram channel. “Our trade with the U.S. accounts for less than 1% of Kazakhstan’s total foreign trade. Even with a 27% tariff, the effect will be negligible.” Rysmambetov noted that Kazakhstan exported over $2 billion worth of goods to the U.S. in 2024, while imports totaled $1 billion, maintaining a trade surplus for the tenth consecutive year. “We’re on the tariff list, but it’s mostly symbolic,” he added, emphasizing that Kazakhstan’s exports largely consist of strategic materials. Rysmambetov also sees potential upsides: countries facing new duties may seek alternative markets, possibly offering Kazakhstan better terms on imports such as equipment, metals, vehicles, and construction materials. “Global trade tensions can open windows of opportunity, for strategic borrowing, better equipment deals, and expanded exports. But quick action is key,” he concluded. International Backlash The U.S. move drew swift condemnation from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who called the policy a “severe blow to the global economy.” “Uncertainty will...

EU-Central Asia Ministerial Meeting Highlights Enhanced Cooperation and Strategic Priorities

The 20th EU-Central Asia Ministerial Meeting took place on March 27 in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, reaffirming the parties’ strong political will to deepen engagement and strengthen cooperation in strategically significant areas. The meeting brought together the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, along with the foreign ministers of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, and the deputy foreign ministers of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. A key item on the agenda was preparation for the inaugural EU-Central Asia Summit, scheduled for April 4, 2025, in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Advancing Strategic Cooperation Kallas and Central Asian ministers discussed a broad spectrum of mutual priorities under the EU’s Global Gateway Flagship Initiatives, including trade, transport, energy, water resource management, climate change, digitalization, and critical raw materials. Both sides also highlighted advancing cooperation in education, vocational training, research, and skills development to foster deeper people-to-people ties. In a joint communiqué adopted at the meeting, the EU and Central Asian states reaffirmed their shared commitment to further strengthening their comprehensive partnership, grounded in mutual interests and values. The discussions were guided by the “Joint Roadmap for Deepening Ties between the EU and Central Asia,” previously adopted in Luxembourg in October 2023. Focus on Connectivity and the Trans-Caspian Corridor Connectivity emerged as a central theme, with the participants stressing the need to expand sustainable connections between Central Asia and Europe. The EU’s Global Gateway Strategy was highlighted as a key vehicle for supporting regional infrastructure in trade, transport, water, and energy. The participants recalled the success of the Global Gateway Investors Forum on EU-Central Asia Transport Connectivity, held in Brussels in January 2024. They welcomed commitments by European and international financial institutions to invest €10 billion in the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (TCTC), aimed at significantly enhancing East-West transport links. Critical Raw Materials and Local Value Chains Another focal point was the growing strategic importance of critical raw materials (CRMs). Ministers reviewed progress following the signing of a Strategic Partnership Memorandum of Understanding between the EU and both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in the CRM sector. The meeting acknowledged EU support for strengthening local value chains in Central Asia. Discussions stressed alignment with international labor and environmental standards and the development of sustainable investment projects across the region. Sanctions Compliance The EU also briefed participants on its restrictive measures in the current geopolitical environment, underlining the need to prevent sanctions circumvention. Central Asian countries expressed readiness to continue cooperating with the EU to prevent re-exports of sensitive items, particularly those classified as “high priority.” Strategic Outlook The meeting reaffirmed the EU’s 2019 Strategy on Central Asia, which recognizes the region’s increasing strategic relevance to Europe. The Ashgabat gathering further solidified this recognition, highlighting Central Asia’s growing role in regional connectivity, resource security, and global diplomacy.

EU-Uzbekistan Cooperation Focuses on Digital Connectivity and Critical Raw Materials

On March 18, European Commissioner for International Partnerships Jozef Síkela visited Uzbekistan on the final leg of his Central Asia tour. In Tashkent, he met with President Shavkat Mirziyoyev to strengthen the growing partnership between Uzbekistan and the European Union. According to the EU Delegation to Uzbekistan, discussions centered on expanding digital connectivity, promoting sustainability, and fostering job creation through critical raw materials. Another key focus was the development of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor to enhance trade. The visit also highlighted how the EU’s Global Gateway strategy supports infrastructure and clean energy initiatives. Both sides acknowledged the increasing momentum in EU-Uzbekistan relations, particularly in political, trade, economic, investment, cultural, and humanitarian cooperation. They also discussed preparations for the first-ever Central Asia-EU summit, set to take place in early April in Samarkand. New EU-Funded Projects in Uzbekistan As part of the Team Europe Initiative on Digital Connectivity in Central Asia, Síkela witnessed the signing of agreements for two key EU-funded projects aimed at improving digital infrastructure across the region: The Connectivity for Central Asia (C4CA) Project - This initiative seeks to enhance digital infrastructure and regional integration, supporting economic growth and better access to online services. By fostering stronger digital ties among Central Asian countries, the project aims to bridge the digital divide and promote economic cooperation. The Satellite Connectivity for Underserved Populations Project - This project is designed to provide high-speed internet access to remote and underserved communities in Central Asia. By improving digital access in rural areas, the initiative supports education, healthcare, and economic development, aligning with the EU’s broader goal of promoting inclusive digital connectivity. Síkela underscored the importance of EU-Uzbekistan cooperation in improving internet access across the region. “European technology combined with Uzbek expertise can ensure more people have access to fast and secure internet, support businesses to grow, create new jobs, and improve living conditions in local communities. By investing in digital connectivity, we're bridging gaps, creating opportunities, and ensuring that Central Asia is ready to benefit from the digital economy,” he said. Cooperation on Critical Raw Materials During his visit, Síkela also toured the Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Complex, one of Uzbekistan’s key industrial facilities. The visit aimed to explore opportunities for sustainable resource development and responsible investment in critical raw materials, further strengthening economic cooperation between the EU and Uzbekistan.

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Kazakhstan-EU Cooperation Focuses on Critical Raw Materials and Regional Connectivity

On March 13, European Commissioner for International Partnerships Jozef Síkela visited Kazakhstan and held negotiations with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Murat Nurtleu. As a result of the visit, the European Union and Kazakhstan have taken steps to strengthen their partnership, signing key agreements to support sustainable economic growth and foster regional connectivity, according to the EU Delegation to Kazakhstan. Investments in Transport and Renewable Energy During the visit, Commissioner Síkela and Kazakh officials oversaw the signing of a €200 million framework loan agreement between the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the Development Bank of Kazakhstan (DBK). This loan, backed by an €18 million EU guarantee, will finance investments in sustainable transport and renewable energy. The initiative aligns with the EU’s Global Gateway strategy, particularly its programs on the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor and the Team Europe Initiative on Water, Energy, and Climate Change. Síkela underscored the EU’s commitment to strengthening economic ties with Kazakhstan through sustainable investments. “This financing agreement will boost connectivity, enhance renewable energy infrastructure, and further integrate Kazakhstan into the Trans-Caspian Corridor, a key component of the Global Gateway strategy,” he stated. Critical Raw Materials Cooperation The visit also marked the signing of a €3 million contract to enhance cooperation between the EU and Central Asia in the critical raw materials (CRM) sector. The agreement, implemented by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), will support the identification of joint projects and promote international best practices for sustainable and responsible supply chains. Síkela highlighted the importance of the agreement, stating: “The EU and Kazakhstan are natural partners. Europe needs reliable access to critical raw materials, which are essential for modernizing our economy. We are committed to advancing mutually beneficial cooperation with Kazakhstan on their extraction and development. This partnership will support all Central Asian countries, strengthen Kazakhstan’s industrial capacity, create new opportunities for Kazakh businesses, drive innovation, and generate high-quality jobs.” Kazakhstan-EU Trade and Investments Foreign Minister Nurtleu reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s commitment to expanding its partnership with the EU. “Astana and Brussels have built a strong political dialogue, established dynamic cooperation between executive bodies, and fostered productive cultural and humanitarian ties between our peoples,” he said. According to the Kazakh Foreign Ministry, the EU is Kazakhstan’s primary trade and investment partner. In 2024, bilateral trade between Kazakhstan and the EU totaled $49.7 billion, with Kazakhstan’s exports reaching $38.6 billion and imports totaling $11.1 billion. From 2005 to October 2024, the total foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow from EU countries reached $200.7 billion, accounting for 47.8% of Kazakhstan’s total FDI inflows ($419.5 billion).

Kyrgyzstan Begins Development of Large Titanomagnetite Deposit

Kyrgyzstan has begun developing its largest titanomagnetite deposit, Kyzyl-Ompol, in the Issyk-Kul region. Speaking at the launch ceremony on September 25, the Chairman of the Kyrgyz Cabinet of Ministers, Akylbek Japarov, emphasized that the state will develop and finance this strategic deposit. "This is a very important event for Kyrgyzstan. The Kyzyl-Ompol deposit contains millions of tons of titanomagnetite. Titanium is valuable in various industries, including medicine, aviation, and space. The development of this deposit will allow us not only to increase exports but also to create new jobs, which will give an impetus to developing the country's economy," Japarov said. Japarov also emphasized the importance of an environmentally friendly approach to the deposit's development, saying that technologies used to extract titanomagnetite will guarantee the safe extraction of associated minerals such as uranium and thorium. Early in June, the Kyrgyz parliament approved a government bill lifting a ban on the mining of uranium and thorium that had been in place since 2019. The move caused environmental concerns in Kyrgyz society, as the country still works on the rehabilitation and conservation of radioactive uranium waste sites left over from the Soviet era. The ban was lifted to start the mining of titanomagnetite, which is accompanied by uranium and thorium. The government plans to process both elements at the Kara-Balta Mining Combine, some 100 km west of Bishkek.