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Think tanks U.S. Bilateral Cooperation

U.S., Uzbek Think Tanks Agree to Work Together

Two prominent research centers in Uzbekistan and the United States plan to collaborate on joint projects. The Washington-based Caspian Policy Center and Uzbekistan’s state-backed Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies signed a “strategic partnership agreement” and look forward to “fruitful joint work,” Caspian Policy Center CEO Efgan Nifti said on X. Furqat Sidiqov, Uzbekistan’s ambassador to the U.S., said the agreement would help to foster ties between the two countries through research and dialogue. Founded in 2016, the nonprofit Caspian Policy Center focuses on economic, political, energy and security issues in the Caspian region. The Uzbek institute started in 1992 under a presidential decree. Last week, Eldor Aripov, director of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies, met leaders of top research groups in Washington. Among the topics they discussed were economic and other reforms in Uzbekistan that open “great opportunities for expanding the presence of American business in the Uzbek market,” the institute said. The leaders also discussed U.S. foreign policy priorities, including in Central Asia, and noted “successful cooperation” in the so-called C5+1 talks format that includes Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and the United States, according to the institute. It said the format helped to coordinate efforts “to strengthen regional trade, develop transport and energy links, combat environmental challenges, and counter extremism.”

International Cooperation U.S. Jihadism ISIS Syria Extremism

West Monitors Syria for Plans of Jihadis, Some From Central Asia

Some counterterrorism experts in the West are assessing whether the ouster of Bashar Assad´s regime in Syria will lead to a recalibration of the Islamic militant groups that opposed him, some of which include especially hardline recruits from Central Asia. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian group that led an offensive into Aleppo and Damascus and forced Assad to flee in a span of two weeks, is trying to turn to governance with a relatively moderate image even though it was associated with Al-Qaeda earlier in the Syrian civil war and is labeled a terrorist organization on some Western lists. It’s too early to say whether HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani will stick to a message of tolerance or can make it work in a fractured country with gutted institutions, but there are signs that some jihadis object to his message of inclusiveness. “Many of them are Central Asians and they may look to go somewhere else. I think we’re inevitably going to see a certain amount of splintering from what happens in Syria,” said Colin Clarke, a terrorism researcher and author of After the Caliphate. At an Atlantic Council event in Washington on Wednesday, Clarke said there is an “interplay” between religious extremism in Afghanistan and Syria, and that a number of groups with Central Asian members have those connections. Clarke said he will be watching to see whether the connections grow following Assad’s abrupt exit after more than two decades in power. Some estimates put the number of Islamic militants who have traveled from Central Asia to Syria and Iraq over the years at around several thousand, though the figures vary and are difficult to confirm. Many joined the Islamic State group, which was defeated in Iraq and is much diminished in Syria although the U.S. recently carried out air strikes to prevent any resurgence by the group amid Syria’s current upheaval. One jihadist group with Central Asia links that collaborated with HTS in the successful campaign against Assad is Katibat al Tawhid wal Jihad, designated a terror group by the U.S. State Department in 2022. The group carried out a Saint Petersburg, Russia metro attack in 2017 that killed 14 passengers and injured 50 others, as well as a suicide car bombing of the Chinese embassy in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan in 2016 that injured three people, according to the U.S. Katibat al Tawhid wal Jihad is comprised mainly of Uzbek, Tajik and Kyrgyz combatants, according to Daniele Garofalo Monitoring, which traces jihadist propaganda and military activity. There are an estimated 400-500 fighters in the group. Another HTS ally is Katibat Mujaheddin Ghuroba Division, which has between 200 and 400 fighters, according to the Garofalo site. Many are Uzbeks, Tajiks and Uyghurs, though the group also has Arab militants. There is also Jaysh al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar, which dates to the early stages of the Syrian civil war that began in 2011. The jihadist group is believed to have 400-500 fighters, mostly Chechens, Tajiks, Dagestanis, Azerbaijanis, Kazakhs and Ukrainians, as well as...

U.S. WTO Global integration Economic Integration

WTO Momentum: Uzbekistan Wraps up Talks with U.S.

Uzbekistan has taken another big stride in its march toward membership in the World Trade Organization, a goal that it hopes to finalize ahead of the WTO ministerial meeting in the spring of 2026. A bilateral agreement with the United States has been reached after 14 months of negotiations, according to Azizbek Urunov, Uzbekistan’s chief negotiator on WTO accession. Uzbekistan has now completed talks with 21 countries as it seeks to implement reforms and integrate more closely with the global economy, demonstrating considerable momentum toward WTO accession since no deals had been negotiated at the beginning of 2023. “It has been an adventurous journey, tough but substantive negotiations,” Urunov said after the talks with American counterparts last week. Uzbekistan started the WTO accession process in 1994, several years after independence from the Soviet Union, and then dropped the effort a decade later. It resumed the campaign a few years ago. Johanna Hill, deputy director-general of the WTO, said last month that Uzbekistan’s goal was to “reduce the number of outstanding bilateral negotiations to under 10 WTO Members by next year.” [caption id="attachment_25176" align="aligncenter" width="1149"] Uzbekistan's accession process; image: WTO[/caption] Uzbekistan is pursuing reforms in the role of state trading enterprises, exports restrictions and subsidies, technical barriers to trade and other areas, according to Hill. "Uzbekistan has been one of the most active acceding governments of late. It has pushed ahead with economic reform, in the strategic region of Central Asia, with WTO accession very high on the government's agenda,” she said. Hill cited a WTO report this year that says economies reforming their markets during WTO accession grew on average 1.5% more than economies that did not reform. The WTO report maintains that trade and more global cooperation are critical to fostering equality and inclusivity, while acknowledging rising geopolitical tensions, measures to restrict trade, greater urgency surrounding the push for sustainability and other challenges. Some analysts point to the WTO’s ministerial conference in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates earlier this year as a showcase for the troubles that the organization is facing. “On the critical agenda items - agricultural trade, fisheries subsidies, and reform of the WTO’s dispute-settlement mechanism - ministers simply kicked the can down the road, undertaking to continue work and once more extend deadlines that few expect to be met,” wrote Evan Rogerson, an analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. His commentary on the meeting was among several presented by the Council of Councils, an international group of policy institutes.

U.S. Art and Culture US Elections Entertainment

Very Nice? Sacha Baron Cohen Reprises Borat Role on U.S. Talk Show

Borat is back. Briefly, at least. Actor and comedian Sacha Baron Cohen, who played the fictional journalist from Kazakhstan for laughs in films in 2006 and 2020, resurrected the character in an appearance last week on The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon. Fallon asked Baron Cohen, who had donned a thick, fake mustache, what Borat would say to Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The results were, well, vintage Borat. Borat´s cringeworthy, often unscripted encounters and scatological brand of humor are either keen satire, or just tasteless and offensive, or perhaps some blend of the two, depending on the perspective. The Borat character is a crude misogynist who talks about “sexy time” with bears in his homeland. But his escapades in the United States are arguably an attempt to lampoon American life or society in general as much as to portray a country in Central Asia, repository of ancient civilizations, as a land of backward buffoons. Borat producers have said they were not trying to convey the actual conduct or beliefs of people in Kazakhstan, where the government took offense when the first movie came out. Later, some people in Kazakhstan warmed to Borat and recognized the public relations boost and even increased tourist numbers linked to Baron Cohen’s outrageous character in a boxy suit. His catchphrase “Very nice!” was the hook in a promotional video for Kazakhstan. In 2006, Erlan Idrissov, who was then Kazakhstan’s ambassador to Britain, expressed unease about Borat´s boorish persona in the successful first movie at a time when, according to the envoy, Kazakhstan was starting to emerge as an economic and political “pace-setter” in the region. “But, sadly, it is still the case that few people in Britain or America know anything about Kazakhstan or can even locate it on a map. They are in no position to judge whether Borat or his movie is remotely credible or fair. Baron Cohen exploits this ignorance to the full,” Idrissov wrote in The Guardian. In 2020, there was less fuss about the second Borat movie in Kazakhstan, whose international stature had grown over the years. “Kazakhstan has grown up, Borat hasn't,” read a headline in Emerging Europe, a regional policy and management group.

Rudenshiold Afghanistan Military Taliban U.S.

U.S. Decision to Give Military Aircraft to Uzbekistan Upsets Taliban

Ownership of 46 U.S. military aircraft that have sat on the tarmac in Uzbekistan’s southern city of Termez for more than three years has finally been established. Most of those planes and helicopters are going to Uzbekistan, and south of the Uzbek border in Afghanistan, the Taliban are not pleased with this decision. Escape from Afghanistan On August 15, 2021, Taliban forces freely entered Kabul and reestablished themselves in power. The rapid advances of Taliban militants across Afghanistan earlier that month came as the last foreign forces were departing from the country. Panic broke out throughout the nation. On the day the Taliban entered Kabul, dozens of Afghan Army aircraft carrying government officials and soldiers left their bases and flew north, some to Tajikistan, most to Uzbekistan. In Uzbekistan, the Afghans were deported to U.S. custody and taken to the United Arab Emirates, where they were eventually given U.S. visas and sent to live in the United States. However, the 22 planes and 24 helicopters they flew aboard to Uzbekistan have remained at Termez. The aircraft belonged to the United States. They were loaned for use by the U.S.-backed government forces in Afghanistan. The Taliban assert that all the weapons used by troops of the ousted Afghan government belong to the Afghan people, meaning to the Taliban. On January 4, 2022, Taliban Defense Ministry representative, Inomulla Samagani, said a request for the return of the aircraft had been made to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Days later, the Taliban’s acting Defense Minister, Mawlawi Mohammad Yaqoob, son of Taliban founder Mullah Omar, demanded their return. “Our planes that you have, that are in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, must be returned to us,” Yaqoob said, warning both countries, “not to test our patience and not to force us to take possible retaliatory steps to [reclaim the aircraft].” As economic relations have grown between Taliban-ruled Afghanistan and Uzbekistan since late 2021, the Taliban’s language has softened, but their claim to the planes and helicopters has been repeated several times. On August 24, 2024, Uzbekistan’s kun.uz news agency reported that U.S. Ambassador to Uzbekistan Johnathan Henick had stated that most of the U.S. aircraft in Uzbekistan would be handed over to the Uzbek government. “Yes, it is already official,” Henick said. “The military equipment will remain in Uzbekistan, this is already settled.” Unsurprisingly, the Taliban Defense Ministry responded to Henick’s remarks. “Any agreement regarding the fate of Afghan helicopters and planes in Uzbekistan is unacceptable,” a Taliban Defense Ministry statement stated. Taliban Defense Ministry spokesman, Emayatullah Khwarazmi, said in an audio statement released on August 27 that the “government of Uzbekistan is expected to refrain from any dealings in this regard, to consider good neighborly relations, and to make a wise decision by cooperating in the return of Afghanistan's air force aircraft." U.S. officials have made it clear since 2021 that under no circumstance would the aircraft be given to Afghanistan. During a visit to Dushanbe in June 2022, Commander of the U.S. Central Command, General...

U.S. China Russia

China Expands Footprint in Central Asia

In July, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, architect of the Belt and Road economic initiative, traveled to Kazakhstan for a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a security group whose founding members include several Central Asian countries. There, Xi warned against the threat of “external interference” and celebrated Chinese collaboration with President Vladimir Putin of Russia, the region’s other traditional power. Then he visited Tajikistan, a security partner that borders China and Afghanistan. Europe and the United States, which want to counterbalance Chinese and Russian sway in Central Asia, were watching. Last week, several analysts affiliated with Western institutions held a Zoom discussion titled "The China-Central Asia Crossroads." It was hosted by the Center for the National Interest, a non-profit group based in Washington – a few blocks from the White House. Here are excerpts from the analysis: Balancing China and Russia: Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Berlin-based Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center: There is a misconception that “China is somehow replacing Russia” as the main partner in Central Asia because of unease over Russia´s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. “The reality is much more nuanced and detailed,” Umarov said. Since the end of the Soviet Union in 1991, he said, Central Asian countries have always looked for “diversified ties with the world” and “Central Asia wants to have China’s presence be enlarged into other spheres and to have a counterbalance in the face of Russia.” Elizabeth Wishnick, an expert on Sino-Russian relations at the Center for Naval Analyses and the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University: “Central Asians wanted to diversify away from Russia to have more choice. China is not necessarily the only partner they want. And they they've been trying, especially recently, to engage with European countries, with India, with Iran, with Turkey, with a broader range of countries.” Wishnick, who traveled recently to Central Asia, said some people described Russia as “toxic” in private conversations. She also said: “You see a lot of caution about the relationship with China in terms of the lack of transparency of some of the projects that China is investing in, the potential environmental consequence of some of these projects.” Brian Carlson, a research professor at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College: There is “a little bit of slippage of Russian influence in the region,” although Putin has worked to maintain it with frequent meetings with Central Asian leaders, Carlson said. He noted that, after Putin visited China in May, he called the leaders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to update them on the trip. Even so, China’s influence is increasing. “And so, this does pose challenges for the Central Asian countries. In the past, they've kind of tried to play Russia and China off against each other. To some extent, that will be more difficult given that China and Russia have a very close partnership. So, it will be difficult for Central Asian countries to navigate great power relations in the coming years....