Kazakhstan Grain Harvest Nears 20 Million Tons Despite Dry Weather

Kazakhstan had harvested nearly 20 million metric tons of grain by late September, despite periods of dry and hot weather in parts of the country’s grain belt. The Agriculture Ministry expects the final harvest to exceed the long-term average, while disruption to Russian and Ukrainian exports through the Black Sea has added uncertainty to global wheat supplies. By September 29, farmers had harvested 13.5 million hectares, or 83% of Kazakhstan’s grain-growing area, producing 19.9 million metric tons of grain at an average yield of 14.7 centners per hectare, equivalent to 1.47 metric tons per hectare. Weather conditions varied considerably during the growing season. Parts of northern and central Kazakhstan experienced insufficient rainfall, while high temperatures created additional risks in some areas. However, later assessments by Kazhydromet described spring grain crops across much of the north as generally in good or excellent condition. Deputy Agriculture Minister Azat Sultanov said that under comparable dry conditions in previous years, yields had often fallen to 8-9 centners per hectare. The average recorded by September 29 was considerably higher, although harvesting is still underway in several of the country’s main grain-producing regions. From September 2025 through July 30, 2026, exports of grain and flour in grain equivalent reached 13.9 million metric tons, according to Kazakhstan Temir Zholy data cited by the Agriculture Ministry. That was 12.6% higher than during the same period a year earlier. Uzbekistan remained the largest buyer, importing 5.8 million metric tons, while shipments to Afghanistan reached 2.4 million metric tons. Exports to Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan also increased. Attacks on vessels and port infrastructure have severely disrupted Russian and Ukrainian exports through the Black Sea, pushing buyers in parts of Asia, the Middle East, and Africa toward alternative suppliers. That may support demand for grain from other exporters, although Kazakhstan’s landlocked location remains a constraint. Transport costs and the capacity of rail and other export corridors have a direct impact on the competitiveness of Kazakh grain in more distant markets. The structure of Kazakhstan’s agricultural production is changing, with less land devoted to wheat and more acreage allocated to oilseeds and other crops. Farmers had harvested 2.4 million metric tons of oilseeds from 2.4 million hectares by September 29. The Agriculture Ministry forecasts a final crop of more than 5 million metric tons. Official statistics put Kazakhstan’s 2025 oilseed harvest at about 4.95 million metric tons. Cotton harvesting is also continuing in southern Kazakhstan, where water availability remains a major constraint. Sultanov said the area of cotton fields using drip irrigation had increased from about 3,000 hectares to 80,000 hectares over the past two years. By September 29, 70,500 metric tons of raw cotton had been harvested, with an average yield of 32 centners per hectare.

Kazakhstan Agricultural Exports Face Growing Competition from Uzbekistan

Kazakhstan is rapidly increasing the value of its agricultural exports and trying to sell more processed products abroad rather than simply exporting raw commodities. In 2025, the country’s agricultural exports reached $7 billion, with processed products accounting for $3.6 billion. In the first four months of 2026, exports of agricultural and food products rose another 36% to $3 billion. But Kazakhstan’s relationship with Uzbekistan, one of the main buyers of its agricultural products, shows another side of this process. Uzbekistan is also beginning to challenge the established pattern. It buys Kazakh grain, vegetable oils, and oilseed products, but is expanding its own processing capacity. In some sectors, finished Uzbek products are now entering the same foreign markets where Kazakh producers have traditionally been strong. This is most clearly visible in the flour market. Kazakhstan has long been a dominant regional flour exporter and was until recently Afghanistan’s main supplier. Uzbekistan, meanwhile, imported both Kazakh wheat and flour. As Tashkent expanded its domestic milling capacity, it increasingly bought raw Kazakh wheat and turned it into flour at home. By 2025, the balance had shifted. Kazakhstan supplied Afghanistan with about 1.05 million metric tons of flour, while Uzbekistan shipped nearly 1.59 million tons. Almost all of Uzbekistan’s flour exports in 2025 went to the Afghan market. Kazakhstan has not disappeared from this production chain. Uzbekistan remains one of the largest buyers of Kazakh wheat. Those grain shipments help supply Uzbek flour mills, with the finished flour then exported, including to Afghanistan. Uzbekistan also continues to import Kazakh flour, so the substitution has not been complete. Kazakhstan is also developing its agricultural processing. Exports of processed agricultural products rose 35% to $3.6 billion in 2025. In the flour market, however, the value-adding step of milling grain and exporting the flour has increasingly shifted to its neighbor. There are signs of a similar shift in the vegetable oil and fat industry, although Kazakhstan’s position here remains considerably stronger. Between September 2025 and May 2026, Kazakhstan supplied Uzbekistan with 553,000 metric tons of vegetable oils and meal and oilcake, 31% more than during the same period of the previous season. Kazakhstan accounted for more than 90% of Uzbekistan’s vegetable oil imports in 2025. For Kazakhstan, this is an example of moving beyond the simple export of agricultural raw materials. Uzbekistan, meanwhile, is expanding its own oils and fats industry. Large enterprises produced 31,200 metric tons of margarine and spreads in 2025, up 21.4% from a year earlier. Sunflower oil production is also growing. In January-August 2025, large Uzbek enterprises produced 83,500 metric tons, compared with 28,000 metric tons during the same period in 2023. Domestic production is therefore rising rapidly even as Uzbekistan continues to import large volumes of sunflower oil. Uzbekistan is also beginning to export more sunflower oil. In the first half of 2025, Uzbekistan supplied Afghanistan with more than 17,700 metric tons of sunflower oil, becoming its largest supplier during that period, according to data from agricultural market analyst Marina Sidak and as reported by APK-Inform....