World Bank - The Times Of Central Asia

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Economy

Kyrgyzstan Economy at Risk of Stagnation, Warns World Bank

The World Bank has released a new report on the economic development of Kyrgyzstan and the broader Central Asian region. While the report acknowledges that Kyrgyzstan’s economy is growing at a steady pace, it warns that this growth is insufficient to propel the country to the next stage of development. The report, prepared in collaboration with the Kyrgyz Ministry of Economy and Commerce, outlines a three-stage approach to advancing the national economy. According to David Knight, a leading economist at the World Bank, Kyrgyzstan should prioritize investment, the adoption of new technologies, and innovation. The World Bank also recommends that the government focus on improving education, strengthening the private sector, and reforming energy policy. "Kyrgyzstan's economy is currently showing strong indicators. However, these are not enough to facilitate a transition to the next level of development. As experience shows, it is only a matter of time before economic growth slows. The key question is whether the authorities can sustain momentum," Knight said. Ivaylo Izvorski, the World Bank’s Chief Economist for Europe and Central Asia, told The Times of Central Asia that Kyrgyzstan needs targeted investments — or "point injections" — in key sectors, particularly industry and energy. "Why is it so difficult to transition from middle-income to high-income status? One reason is that countries cannot simply shift from investment-driven growth to innovation-driven growth overnight. The right technologies must first be introduced into the economy, and only then can innovation take hold," Izvorski explained. The World Bank has also raised concerns about Kyrgyzstan’s energy sector, particularly its pricing policies. Despite recent increases in electricity and heating costs, World Bank experts argue that tariffs remain artificially low and heavily subsidized, which could hinder long-term development. "If electricity costs 10 cents per unit but consumers pay only 3 cents, it leads to waste and inefficiencies. State subsidies, the monopoly of state-owned enterprises, and market distortions continue to obstruct energy sector reforms," Izvorski said. The report also highlighted the need for education reform. The World Bank advises Kyrgyz authorities to raise educational standards, particularly in higher education, to support a more skilled workforce. To achieve this, universities and vocational schools should strengthen partnerships with industrial enterprises, while university funding should be tied to institutional performance.

Kambarata

Central Asian Countries and World Bank Discuss Progress on Kambarata-1 Hydropower Project

On January 27, Tashkent hosted a roundtable discussion on advancing the construction of the Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant (HPP), an ambitious regional initiative being jointly undertaken by Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. The project aims to enhance regional cooperation in Central Asia regarding water and energy resource management. The meeting was attended by Kyrgyzstan’s Minister of Energy Taalaibek Ibrayev, Uzbekistan’s Minister of Energy Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister of Energy Sungat Yesimkhanov, and the World Bank Regional Director for Central Asia Tatiana Proskuryakova. The Kambarata-1 HPP, with a projected capacity of 1,860 megawatts and an average annual electricity generation of 5.6 billion kilowatt-hours, will be constructed at an estimated cost exceeding $4 billion. It is planned to be located in the upper reaches of the Naryn River in Kyrgyzstan. Upon completion, it will become the largest hydropower plant in Kyrgyzstan and is expected to address the country's chronic electricity shortages. At the meeting, ministers from the three participating countries requested the World Bank’s assistance in preparing and financing the Kambarata-1 HPP construction. Kyrgyzstan's Ibrayev described the project as "the project of the century" for Kyrgyzstan, emphasizing its potential to strengthen regional cooperation and foster long-term development across Central Asia. “Today's roundtable in Tashkent continues a series of meetings that took place in Vienna, Brussels, and Washington in 2024. These events help coordinate and accelerate the project’s implementation, as well as attract the necessary international support,” Ibrayev stated. From Kazakhstan’s side, Yesimkhanov highlighted the meeting as another step forward in strengthening regional cooperation in the water and energy sectors. He expressed confidence that the project would bolster good relations among Central Asian nations. Uzbek representative Mirzamakhmudov reiterated his country’s commitment to the project, underscoring its strategic importance for the region. "The project will bring significant benefits to all Central Asian countries by strengthening regional energy security, accelerating the transition to a green economy, and improving the use of water resources," he said. Currently, Kyrgyzstan, with the World Bank’s technical support, is revising the project’s feasibility study. This includes assessing the technical, economic, financial, environmental, and social dimensions of the Kambarata-1 HPP. World Bank Regional Director Proskuryakova reaffirmed the institution’s readiness to support the three governments in their efforts to ensure a stable energy future for the region. “We will continue to provide technical assistance in the implementation of the Kambarata-1 HPP construction project. Together with other international development partners, we are working to attract the financing necessary to implement the project,” she said. Ibrayev has previously stated that all preparatory stages of the project are scheduled for completion by May 2025. In September 2024, Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers and the World Bank organized a roundtable to discuss dam selection for the Kambarata-1 HPP. The Swiss engineering firm AFRY proposed several options, and Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Energy has confirmed that the feasibility study will be finalized based on the chosen dam design by May 2025.

Economy

Central Asia’s Economic Growth to Reach 5% in 2025

The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report offers projections for economic growth, risks, and challenges across Europe and Central Asia (ECA), highlighting mixed outcomes for the region as a whole. Regional Outlook Economic growth across ECA is projected to slow to 2.5% in 2025, with a modest recovery to 2.7% expected in 2026. This deceleration is largely attributed to weaker economic activity in Russia and Turkey, two key regional economies. Excluding these two countries and Ukraine, growth in the rest of the region is forecasted to average 3.3% in 2025-2026. The recovery in these areas will primarily be driven by private consumption and investment, as inflationary pressures ease and monetary policies gradually become less restrictive. Despite these projections, significant risks remain. Global policy uncertainty and potential changes in trade policies could negatively affect trade flows, capital investments, and economic growth. Geopolitical tensions - particularly stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - and persistent inflation in the region could also pose serious challenges to stability. Central Asia: A Bright Spot Central Asia is expected to outperform the broader ECA region, with growth projected to accelerate to 5% in 2025 before softening to 4.2% in 2026. This growth will be driven by increased oil production in Kazakhstan, which will serve as a critical engine of recovery for the region. Remittances will also continue to play a key role, particularly for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. These inflows provide vital support to household consumption and help improve current account balances. However, international sanctions on Russia and financial restrictions on cross-border transfers could push some remittance flows into informal channels, potentially limiting their economic impact. Long-Term Challenges While short-term recovery appears promising, the ECA region’s long-term growth potential remains subdued. Between 2022 and 2030, annual growth is projected to average just 3.0%, down from 3.6% in the previous decade. Several factors contribute to this slowdown, including labor shortages caused by low workforce participation rates, aging populations, and significant emigration, particularly from the Western Balkans. Education remains a critical area for improvement. Although ECA boasts relatively strong educational systems, issues such as declining quality in higher education and ongoing brain drain have hindered human capital development. Addressing these issues and improving education systems could help the region move closer to high-income economies in the long term. Conclusion While Central Asia’s projected growth for 2025 presents an optimistic outlook, the region - and ECA as a whole - faces significant headwinds. Structural challenges, geopolitical instability, and demographic pressures will require governments to adopt forward-looking policies to sustain growth and promote resilience. As inflation cools and monetary policies ease, targeted investments in education and workforce development could unlock new opportunities for long-term economic stability.

Economy

World Bank Urges Reforms to Unlock Uzbekistan’s Service Sector Potential

The World Bank has published a report analyzing Uzbekistan’s service sector, underscoring its critical role in driving economic growth and creating jobs. In 2023, the service sector accounted for 43.9% of the country’s GDP, solidifying its position as the main pillar of the Uzbek economy, ahead of industry, agriculture, and construction. The sector has also become a key source of employment, compensating for the long-term decline in agricultural jobs since independence. Since 2017, Uzbekistan has implemented market reforms that have spurred sustainable economic growth, averaging 5.5% annually. In 2023, the service sector alone contributed to a 6.3% rise in GDP. However, structural transformation has lagged, with the sector’s share of GDP increasing only modestly - from 41% in 2010 to 44% in 2022. The report highlights challenges such as a concentration of low-skilled jobs in retail, hospitality, and transport, while high-productivity and innovation-driven services, such as ICT and professional services, remain underdeveloped, comprising just 4% of service-sector employment. To unlock the sector’s full potential, the World Bank report identifies three key priorities -connectivity, contestability, and capabilities (3Cs). Improving physical and digital infrastructure is critical, as Uzbekistan ranks 88th globally on logistics performance indicators. While 4G/LTE coverage is expanding, it has yet to achieve universal accessibility. Additionally, market liberalization is essential, as restrictions on cross-border services and state monopolies in sectors like telecommunications hinder competition and innovation. The World Bank recommends a range of reforms, including investing in infrastructure, liberalizing markets, easing data localization requirements, and expanding professional education programs such as One Million Uzbek Coders. These initiatives, combined with Uzbekistan’s anticipated accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), could significantly boost the economy. The report projects that these reforms could increase GDP by 17%, stimulate growth in the financial, communications, and insurance sectors, and support the development of small and medium-sized industries. Market liberalization, in particular, promises substantial economic benefits, including higher wages and enhanced global competitiveness. By addressing these challenges, Uzbekistan can position its service sector as a key driver of sustainable growth and long-term prosperity.

Solar Energy

Uzbekistan to Build New Solar Plant with World Bank Support

The World Bank has approved a $3.5 million payment guarantee to support Uzbekistan’s renewable energy development. The guarantee covers the National Electric Grid of Uzbekistan JSC’s obligation to purchase electricity from a 100-megawatt solar power plant to be built and operated by the French company Voltalia in the Khorezm region. Details of the Solar Plant Project The solar plant, set to be commissioned in November 2025, will span 177 hectares and generate more than 240 gigawatt-hours of renewable energy annually. It is projected to reduce CO₂ emissions by over 230,000 metric tons each year and produce enough clean energy to power approximately 60,000 households. This initiative aligns with Uzbekistan’s commitment to increasing clean energy production and advancing its transition to a green economy. Broader World Bank Support In addition to this project, the World Bank has allocated $800 million to accelerate Uzbekistan’s transformation into an inclusive and stable market economy. This financing supports reforms to: Improve the business environment. Enhance agriculture, railways, and energy efficiency. Strengthen public finance management. Expand social services. Increase preparedness for environmental risks. Favorable Financing Terms The World Bank’s financial support employs highly concessional loans, offering low-cost, long-term repayment options that are more favorable than standard international financial market rates. Uzbekistan’s collaboration with the World Bank underscores its strategic focus on sustainable development and clean energy to meet environmental and economic goals.

Poverty

World Bank Report Highlights Poverty and Inequality Challenges in Kazakhstan

The World Bank has released its Kazakhstan Poverty and Equity Assessment 2024, urging policymakers to adopt pro-poor fiscal policies, improve education quality, and enhance climate resilience to address poverty and inequality in the country. According to the report, Kazakhstan’s poverty reduction has slowed in recent years despite significant progress since the early 2000s. “Between 2006 and 2021, economic advancement significantly improved living standards and reduced poverty rates in Kazakhstan. However, economic growth has slowed since 2014, and the pace of poverty reduction has fallen. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated these challenges, highlighting the need for resilient and inclusive economic strategies presented in this report,” said Andrei Mikhnev, World Bank Country Manager for Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan’s economy has grown exponentially since 2006, with an average annual growth rate of 4.7 percent. This growth helped lift 5.9 million people out of poverty, reducing the poverty rate from 49.5 percent to 8.5 percent. However, the report identifies three phases of Kazakhstan’s poverty reduction journey: 2006-2013: Rapid poverty decline driven by strong economic growth. 2014-2016: Reversal during the economic downturn, raising poverty rates. 2016-2021: Resumed poverty reduction but at a slower pace The report highlights that Kazakhstan’s middle-class households with a low probability of falling into poverty grew 2.5 times, reaching 67 percent of the population in 2021 compared to 26 percent in 2006. However, this expansion has stagnated since 2013 due to slower structural transformation and productivity growth. Income inequality has also increased. The Gini index, a measure of inequality (0 = perfect equality, 100 = extreme inequality), rose from 24.3 in 2015 to 26.4 in 2021, driven by faster income growth among high-income households. Although fiscal policies, such as taxation and social spending, have mitigated some inequality, the report recommends making fiscal measures more progressive and pro-poor to maximize their redistributive impact. Poverty rates in rural areas (11.4 percent) remain significantly higher than in urban centers (6.6 percent). The southern Turkistan region now accounts for a disproportionate share of the poor population. Alarmingly, poverty has become more concentrated among children and large families, with children comprising 40 percent of the poor in 2021, up from 27 percent in 2006. The report underscores the critical role of human capital investment in achieving long-term poverty reduction and growth. While access to education in Kazakhstan is nearly universal, significant disparities in quality and outcomes persist. The Human Capital Index indicates that children in Kazakhstan achieve only 53–64 percent of their productivity potential, with regional and socio-economic inequalities exacerbating the issue. Climate-related shocks present additional risks, particularly for rural and vulnerable populations. The report calls for targeted investments in infrastructure and social transfers to build resilience against these challenges. To reduce poverty and inequality, the report suggests: Enhancing fiscal policies through progressive taxation and better-targeted social transfers. Improving education quality and outcomes, particularly for disadvantaged groups. Building resilience to climate shocks by investing in infrastructure and providing targeted support to low-income households. The report concludes that sustained policy reforms will be essential for Kazakhstan to maintain economic progress,...