Business & Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Energy Security

Kazakhstan’s Main Oil Route Remains Vulnerable. It Is Expanding Alternatives

Kazakhstan’s prosperity has been built largely on oil, much of which still reaches world markets through infrastructure crossing Russian territory. That would be a strategic exposure for any country; for a landlocked state bordering Russia during the largest war in Europe since 1945, it is impossible to ignore. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium route to the Black Sea remains Kazakhstan’s most important oil artery, carrying about 80% of its crude exports. Three tankers were struck near the terminal on July 17 and 19, two while loading Kazakh oil. Loadings briefly resumed before a fourth tanker, NELSA, was hit on July 20, forcing another suspension. No casualties or oil spill were reported, but the attacks repeatedly interrupted Kazakhstan’s main export route. Kazakhstan treated the attacks as a direct threat to its own economic interests, not as an incident confined to Russia. Its Foreign Ministry condemned the July 17 and 19 strikes as unacceptable, said an agreed mechanism for sharing information about civilian vessels entering the Black Sea to load CPC oil had been disregarded, and demanded an immediate halt. Ukraine’s General Staff said it had struck two tankers overnight on July 19 as part of its campaign against Russian oil and military-fuel logistics, but did not identify them. CPC said the vessels at its terminal were loading Kazakh crude. The episode exposed Kazakhstan’s dependence on infrastructure beyond its control. That exposure reflects geography and inherited infrastructure, not Kazakhstan’s foreign policy alignment. It is a serious strategic vulnerability that Astana is trying to reduce. Kazakhstan did not choose its geography, and its export system was not designed for the rupture that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is the world’s largest landlocked country, bordered by Russia and China, and sits on the Middle Corridor linking China and Central Asia with the South Caucasus and Europe. No government in Astana can alter those facts. The relevant question is how it has responded to them. Under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kazakhstan remains highly exposed to oil, but it is not an oil economy standing still. KAZENERGY’s 2023 National Energy Report put the hydrocarbon sector at about 23% of GDP in 2019 and about 20% in 2022. Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics put the oil and gas sector at 16.3% of GDP in 2024. The series are not directly comparable, but both indicate that hydrocarbons remain central even as non-oil sectors expand. Oil dependence has not disappeared. UNCTAD notes that oil exports still account for more than half of total exports and remain central to foreign exchange earnings and public finances. Kazakhstan has made more progress in reducing oil’s share of GDP than its weight in exports and state revenue. Any serious assessment has to account for both. Kazakhstan’s position on Ukraine also needs to be judged in context. Binary judgments obscure the constraints facing a country that shares a long border, trade channels, energy infrastructure and significant security exposure with Russia. Kazakhstan has not recognized Russia’s attempted annexations. In 2022, its Foreign Ministry said it would...

Digital Economy

Kazakhstan and China Launch IBI Digital Economy Hub in Almaty

Kazakhstan and China have opened the IBI Digital Economy Hub in Almaty, establishing a new platform aimed at expanding bilateral cooperation in digital trade, investment, industrial development, and cross-border logistics. According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration,the new hub is designed to serve as a focal point for cooperation in the digital economy, e-commerce, trade, investment, industrial collaboration, and transport and logistics between the two countries. The opening ceremony was attended by Vice Minister of Trade and Integration Aidar Abildabekov, along with representatives of government agencies from Kazakhstan and China, development institutions, national companies, financial organizations, and private businesses. Officials said the platform would help companies from both countries develop joint investment projects and connect with international partners. It is also intended to expand digital commerce and online services while improving cross-border supply chains. The hub will support industrial cooperation and transport and logistics projects. It will also help companies deploy technology and localize production, with better access to markets in both countries. A central component of the initiative is the development of a large high-tech industrial park, which is expected to be built in phases over the next five to eight years. Potential locations include the Zhambyl, Almaty, and Karaganda regions, as well as the Khorgos International Centre for Boundary Cooperation on the Kazakhstan-China border. Infrastructure investment in the project is estimated at $2 billion. Once fully operational, the industrial park is expected to generate more than $10 billion in annual economic activity, while the joint venture managing the project is projected to earn more than $1 billion in annual revenue. Between five and ten major industrial and manufacturing companies are expected to become anchor tenants. Speaking at the launch, Abildabekov pointed to record growth in bilateral trade. “Trade between Kazakhstan and China reached a record $48.7 billion in 2025. During the first five months of 2026, bilateral trade totaled $22 billion, up 27% year-on-year. Our task now is not only to increase trade volumes but also to improve their quality through digitalization, industrial cooperation, and the creation of modern production and logistics chains,” he said. Abildabekov described the IBI headquarters as an important addition to the digital infrastructure supporting international trade and investment. "We see this project not simply as an expansion of Chinese business in Kazakhstan, but as a contribution to the development of the country's digital ecosystem. The new platform will become an effective center for cooperation between government, business, and the expert community, helping implement joint projects and introduce advanced digital solutions," he added. China remains one of Kazakhstan’s largest trading and investment partners. According to the Ministry of Trade and Integration, Chinese foreign direct investment reached a record $2.826 billion in 2025, while cumulative Chinese investment in Kazakhstan since 1993 has exceeded $30.7 billion. The hub adds a commercial element to Kazakhstan’s technology ties with China. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev offered Astana as the venue for the first meeting of the World AI Cooperation Organization...

Venture Capital

How a New Generation of Startups From Kazakhstan Attracted International Investors

A software engineering team writes code in Almaty for a parent company incorporated in Delaware. Most of its revenue comes from customers in the United States and Singapore, with the United Kingdom another important market. Until recently, this business model was unusual in Kazakhstan. It is now becoming more common as entrepreneurs launch international companies from the outset rather than focus solely on the domestic market. Rather than adapt foreign products for Kazakhstan’s population of about 20 million, these founders are developing technology for customers abroad. Their success is drawing interest from international venture capital firms and raising Kazakhstan’s profile as a source of high-growth technology companies. Growth Measured in Numbers The latest Startups and Venture Capital in Central Asia 2026 report by RISE Research shows how quickly Kazakhstan’s venture sector is growing. Venture investment reached $209 million in 2025, nearly three times the $71 million raised a year earlier. The figure also exceeded the combined total elsewhere in Central Asia. The aggregate valuation of funded startups in Kazakhstan rose to $2.16 billion. RISE Research also found that U.S.-oriented startups with roots in Kazakhstan raised more than $214 million in 2025. This helps explain the rise in international interest. Venture funds are backing companies built for global markets rather than businesses dependent on a relatively small domestic customer base. Among the best-known examples is Higgsfield AI, which develops software for creating and editing AI-generated video. The company raised $50 million in Series A financing in September 2025. An $80 million extension in January 2026 brought the round to more than $130 million and valued the company at over $1.3 billion, confirming its status as Kazakhstan’s first unicorn. Cerebra AI develops software that analyzes CT scans to help clinicians detect ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. The platform uses the ASPECTS scale and can return an analysis within minutes. Codiplay supplies educational software and Internet of Things kits used to teach programming and hands-on electronics in 13 countries, including South Korea and the UK. The company raised $9 million in Series A financing in January 2025. Parqour develops parking management software with automated license plate recognition. Its systems operate in 22 countries and cover more than 300 parking areas. These companies work in different fields, but their businesses are built mainly around software and intellectual property, even where hardware is part of the product. That makes expansion abroad less capital-intensive and helps explain their appeal to foreign investors. Why Investors Are Paying Attention Now Kazakhstan’s emergence as Central Asia’s leading venture capital market did not happen overnight. The record investment figures of 2025 followed several years of work in the startup sector, including Astana Hub’s accelerator programs and tax incentives. More founders also began developing products for international markets. One clear sign was international recognition. Three startups with founders from Kazakhstan were accepted into Y Combinator in 2025, matching the total accepted in all previous years combined, according to RISE Research. For international investors, acceptance into the Silicon Valley accelerator provides external validation as...

Trade Barriers

Kazakhstan Wheat Ban Raises Risk of Renewed Trade Spat With Russia

A truck crossing into Kazakhstan through a northern border post can be declared as carrying 18 tonnes of wheat while hauling as much as 40 tonnes. Grain Union analyst Evgeny Karabanov described that gap as part of the country’s problem with undeclared Russian grain. Astana’s answer is a six-month ban on most wheat imports from July 27. The measure may curb grey-market loads and support domestic farmers, but it also risks reopening a trade dispute with Russia and deepening the gap between the Eurasian Economic Union’s promises and daily commerce. Agriculture Minister Aidarbek Saparov’s order covers wheat arriving by road, water, and rail from EAEU members and other countries. Poultry farms, grain processors, licensed elevators, and the state Food Contract Corporation may still import by rail. Wheat imported for poultry farms and grain processors cannot be resold inside Kazakhstan or abroad. Rail transit through Kazakhstan remains exempt. The government says the ban will support local producers and secure sales. Deputy Agriculture Minister Azat Sultanov said Kazakhstan has large carryover stocks that need storage. “The decision was taken to stimulate the domestic market,” he said in June. The order names every foreign supplier, but its commercial impact will fall mainly on Russia. In January, the Grain Union forecast about one million tonnes of wheat imports during the September 2025 to August 2026 marketing year. Karabanov said practically all of that grain would come from Russia. Cheap wheat crosses a long shared border into Kazakhstan’s main grain belt. That can lower costs for millers and poultry farms, but it also undercuts growers before they sell their harvest. The ban shifts that pressure rather than removing it. Baimurat Group CEO Daniyar Kuanshaliyev called the measure a “crude administrative intervention” that could raise raw-material prices. He argued that reduced competition for wheat could leave processors paying more while traders and exporters compete for the same domestic stocks. Karabanov takes a less alarmed view. “We generally oppose various bans and restrictions,” he said, but the rail exemptions should limit the number of businesses harmed. He said the clearest cost could be higher transport charges, since trucks are often cheaper than trains for journeys under 500 kilometres. Kazakhstan imposed a broad wheat ban in 2024 after Russian grain continued entering despite earlier controls. TCA’s reporting on the earlier grain dispute found that more than 1.1 million tonnes had arrived in six months before Astana tightened the rules. Russia then restricted Kazakh grain and other agricultural products, citing phytosanitary concerns. Exporters said the effects spread beyond the stated products. “Trucks loaded with those products are being turned away at the border,” Karabanov told Reuters in October 2024. The cycle continued in 2025. Russia reinstated restrictions on Kazakh wheat, flaxseed, and lentils from April, while allowing sealed rail transit. The Grain Union said Moscow had lifted one set of restrictions the previous day, then introduced a new ban with altered terms. That history does not prove Moscow will retaliate this time. Kazakhstan’s order is country-neutral and preserves supplies...

External Debt

The Central Asia Debt Divide: Why the Region’s Borrowing Risks Are Not the Same

Central Asia’s biggest debtor is not necessarily its most vulnerable. Kazakhstan accounts for roughly two-thirds of the region’s external liabilities, but much of that debt sits on corporate balance sheets rather than the government’s. Tajikistan owes a fraction of the amount, yet remains at high risk of debt distress. The contrast highlights the Central Asia debt divide. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rely more heavily on sovereign and concessional borrowing, while Uzbekistan’s external liabilities are now split almost evenly between the public and corporate sectors. Based on the latest available figures from national authorities and international financial institutions, the combined external debt of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan approached $275 billion in early 2026. Turkmenistan has not been included in the estimate because the country does not publish comprehensive official external debt statistics that can be directly compared with those of its regional neighbors. The total is an approximate calculation compiled from national statistics rather than a regional aggregate published by a single institution. The countries also release their debt data for different reporting dates and use different classifications, requiring caution when making direct comparisons. Total external debt includes obligations owed to non-residents by governments, central banks, commercial banks, private companies, and, in some countries, local subsidiaries of foreign corporations. Government external debt is a narrower measure covering liabilities that are directly serviced or guaranteed by the state. China remains an important bilateral creditor, particularly in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, while multilateral institutions provide much of the region’s infrastructure and public-sector financing. Kyrgyzstan: Rising Debt, but a Broader Creditor Base Kyrgyzstan’s public debt has risen alongside increased infrastructure spending and domestic borrowing, although its creditor base has become more diversified. A smaller share is now owed to a single bilateral lender, while multilateral financing and the domestic securities market have grown in importance. According to the Kyrgyz Ministry of Finance’s public debt data, the country’s total public debt stood at approximately $8.94 billion as of May 31, 2026, including around $6.1 billion in external obligations. The debt debate has also become part of President Sadyr Japarov’s broader economic narrative. In an interview with the Kabar national news agency published on October 8, 2025, Japarov said his government was continuing to borrow but argued that new loans were being directed toward commercial projects expected to repay their own financing rather than place an additional burden on the state budget. He also said Kyrgyzstan intended to repay its older debts by 2035. The International Monetary Fund said in its 2026 Article IV consultation that Kyrgyzstan had recorded strong economic growth for a fourth consecutive year, giving the authorities an opportunity to strengthen fiscal buffers and accelerate structural reforms. It also warned that the outlook remained exposed to significant downside risks. Kazakhstan: A Large External Debt, but a Different Risk Profile Kazakhstan accounts for the largest share of Central Asia’s external debt, but its headline figure can be misleading. Unlike several of its neighbors, the country’s external liabilities are dominated by corporate and intercompany borrowing rather...

Waste Management

Kazakhstan Waste-to-Energy Plants to Undergo Major Expansion

Kazakhstan is preparing a major expansion of waste-to-energy plants backed by Chinese investors, potentially giving waste incineration a central role in a system that still sends most municipal refuse to landfill. Astana plans to complete negotiations with China Tianying Inc. and submit an investment agreement for approval within two weeks. The proposed agreement would cover waste-treatment plants in at least three major cities, although the government has not disclosed their locations, cost, or construction timetable. The plans could add at least three facilities to Chinese-backed waste-to-energy plants already under construction in Almaty, Astana, and Shymkent. Together, the existing projects are designed to process 4,500 metric tons of municipal waste per day and generate 134 megawatts of electricity. If operated year-round at their stated capacity, they would handle around 1.64 million tons annually — equivalent to roughly one-third of the municipal waste Kazakhstan currently produces. The expansion follows years of limited progress in Kazakhstan’s waste sector. The country generates between 4.2 million and 4.8 million tons of municipal solid waste annually, while much of the material recorded as sorted or recycled ultimately ends up in landfill. In 2024, only 49,200 tons were processed into secondary raw materials, equivalent to around 1.1% of all municipal waste generated. Kazakhstan also has around 3,000 landfill sites, only about 20% of which meet environmental standards, according to the Ministry of Ecology. More than 1,000 illegal dumps were identified in 2024. The government is attempting to make waste-to-energy projects attractive to investors through investment agreements and a state-set electricity tariff of up to KZT55 ($0.12) per kilowatt-hour. The tariff provides operators with a revenue stream from the electricity produced by burning municipal waste, helping compensate for the weak economics of the wider waste-processing sector. Kazakhstan announced the plans after Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov met Cao Debiao, party secretary and president of China Tianying on July 16, 2026. The two discussed both large plants and smaller facilities capable of processing between 250 and 500 tons of waste per day, which could serve regional cities without enough waste to support the major complexes planned for Kazakhstan’s largest urban centers. According to the government, China Tianying has worked in waste treatment and new energy for more than 20 years and operates in more than 30 countries. Cao said the company handles around 4,000 tons of municipal waste per day through its existing facilities and plans to increase this capacity to 7,000 tons. Three Chinese-backed projects worth a combined KZT293.3 billion, or approximately $622 million, are already under construction. In Almaty, Junxin Environmental Protection is building a KZT145.5 billion ($308 million) facility designed to process 2,000 tons of municipal waste per day and generate 60 megawatts of electricity. In Astana, EAST HOPE is developing a plant capable of processing at least 1,500 tons daily and producing 50 megawatts. The project is valued at KZT94.4 billion, approximately $200 million. Shaanxi Construction Engineering Kazakhstan is building a smaller plant in Shymkent with daily capacity of 1,000 tons and generating capacity of 24...