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Automotive Manufacturing

Kazakhstan to Produce SITRAK Autonomous Heavy Trucks

Kazakhstan plans to begin producing autonomous SITRAK heavy-duty tractor units within three years as it expands domestic vehicle manufacturing and industrial cooperation with China. Industry and Construction Minister Yersayin Nagaspayev announced the plan at a government meeting on July 21. Nagaspayev said the project was among the agreements reached during President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s July 15–17 visit to China. "By 2028, Kazakhstan plans to implement new projects to expand passenger and commercial vehicle production. Agreements reached during the presidential visit to China include the organization of production for Li Auto, Omoda, and Jaecoo vehicles, the manufacture of autonomous Sitrak tractor units, and the development of a nationwide network of high-speed charging stations together with BYD," Nagaspayev said. SITRAK is the premium heavy-truck brand developed between 2009 and 2011 by Chinese manufacturer Sinotruk in partnership with Germany's MAN. The brand’s C7H tractor units, available in 4×2, 6×2, and 6×4 configurations, together with its heavy-duty construction dump trucks, are among the most popular Chinese commercial vehicles in Kazakhstan. The minister did not disclose the planned production site or expected manufacturing capacity. Kazakhstan already assembles Scania and HOWO heavy trucks at an automotive plant in Saran, near the central city of Karaganda. Nagaspayev said Kazakhstan's automotive sector is expected to produce 190,000 vehicles of all types in 2026, surpassing the previous record of more than 171,000 vehicles set in 2025. The government also plans to increase the share of locally made automotive components. Domestic producers already make tires and engine components, as well as batteries and bus parts. Seats and multimedia systems are also produced locally. New projects are underway to manufacture bumpers and wiring harnesses, along with wheels and automotive paint. To support further industrial development, Kazakhstan recently adopted legislation introducing the legal concept of an industrial cluster. The country's largest automotive and manufacturing clusters are currently located in Kostanay, Saran, and Almaty, according to the minister. Artificial intelligence is also playing an increasingly important role in Kazakhstan's manufacturing sector. Nagaspayev said all 11 operating automobile plants in the country have introduced AI-based systems for quality control and industrial safety. An AI-powered situational center has also been established to monitor manufacturing operations, analyze information from surveillance cameras, sensors, and industrial information systems, detect potential emergencies and operational risks, and help factory managers respond before incidents occur. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan and Russia launched a pilot cross-border driverless freight transport corridor in May, marking another step toward the wider adoption of autonomous commercial transport across the region.

Shadow Economy

Kazakhstan Targets Further Reduction in Shadow Economy With AI-Driven Monitoring

Kazakhstan’s government has approved a 2026–2028 Action Plan to reduce the shadow economy through greater use of artificial intelligence and the digital tenge. The plan also calls for further digitalization in sectors most vulnerable to informal economic activity. The government hopes that the measures will reduce the shadow economy's share of GDP from 16.7% in 2025 to 13.8% by 2028, a decline of nearly three percentage points over the next three years. According to the Prime Minister's Office, Kazakhstan has already modernized 20 government information systems in recent years, dismantled the financial infrastructure supporting illegal online casinos with a turnover of approximately $4.2 billion, and prevented unjustified public spending totaling around $765 million. Officials said these efforts helped reduce the shadow economy’s estimated share of GDP from 24% in 2019 to 16.7% in 2025. "The main objective of the Action Plan is to reduce the shadow economy, ensure fair competition, increase business transparency, and boost budget revenues without imposing new obligations on entrepreneurs," the government said. A unified AI-powered monitoring platform will be central to the strategy. The system will combine data from government agencies to identify signs of hidden economic activity and flag risks in real time. Officials say this will help prevent violations before they cause budget losses. The plan contains 53 measures focused on improving economic transparency and accelerating digitalization in sectors with elevated risks of informal activity. The government has identified trade, construction, transport, agriculture, healthcare, and education as priority sectors for the new system. Retail trade will be another focus. The government plans to continue developing the Digital Bazaar, an electronic platform launched in late 2024 to bring Kazakhstan’s traditional markets and trading venues online. More products will be added to the mandatory digital-labeling system, while the National Product Catalogue will be extended. These measures are intended to make supply chains more transparent and curb counterfeit goods. They are also expected to create fairer conditions for businesses. Controls over excise goods and socially important products will be further automated. The government also plans tighter oversight of e-commerce platforms and online marketplaces, along with closer integration of state information systems. In the social sector, digital tools will be used to monitor the quality of services and track prices. They will also help authorities oversee public spending. The government plans to increase the use of the digital tenge, Kazakhstan’s central bank digital currency. It is already being used in selected government programs to improve the traceability of public funds. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the digital tenge officially became a legally recognized form of Kazakhstan's national currency on July 18, providing the legal foundation for its broader use in government payments and public finance.

Oil Refinery

Kyrgyzstan Signs $25 Million Deal for Kochkor-Ata Oil Refinery

Kyrgyzstan has signed a $25 million investment agreement for a new oil refinery in Kochkor-Ata, in the southern Jalal-Abad Region, as the country seeks to expand domestic production and reduce its heavy dependence on imported fuel. The agreement between the Cabinet of Ministers and Central Asian Energy LLC covers the construction and operation of the refinery. It was signed on July 20 by Minister of Economy and Commerce Bakyt Sydykov and the company’s general director, Shao Peipei. The plant is expected to have a planned annual output of 450,000 tons of petroleum products and create at least 300 jobs. The agreement stipulates that Kyrgyz citizens should account for at least 90% of its workforce. Sydykov said the project would support industrial development, create jobs, introduce modern technology, and strengthen Kyrgyzstan’s energy security. Shao said the company would invest $25 million under the agreement. The investor said the plant would produce gasoline and diesel in the K-5 and K-6 environmental classes, as well as bitumen and motor oils. The reference to K-6 is unclear because current Eurasian Economic Union fuel regulations classify motor fuels only through K-5. The Ministry of Economy and Commerce said construction was already underway and that the project’s first phase was expected to enter operation by the end of 2026. The ministry did not disclose the source of crude oil or explain whether the $25 million represents the refinery’s full cost, the investment covered by the agreement, or funding for its initial phase. The agreement comes as Kyrgyzstan faces renewed pressure from disruptions in the Russian fuel market. Deputy Energy Minister Nasipbek Kerimov said in early July that Kyrgyzstan consumes approximately two million tons of fuel and lubricants annually and receives almost 95% of that volume from Russia. He said Russian deliveries had declined slightly but that the country still had sufficient reserves. Russia has tightened fuel exports after Ukrainian drone attacks forced several major refineries to halt or reduce production. Gasoline output fell to about 65% of seasonal demand, according to Reuters calculations published on July 10. Kyrgyzstan receives Russian petroleum products duty-free under annual indicative balances within the Eurasian Economic Union. The disruption has highlighted the risks of relying overwhelmingly on one supplier. Kyrgyzstan is also modernizing its two largest existing refineries. The Kyrgyz Petroleum Company refinery in Manas, formerly Jalal-Abad, can process 500,000 tons of crude oil annually. It is undergoing a $410 million modernization project that is expected to be completed by the end of 2027. The upgraded plant is intended to produce AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline meeting K-4 and K-5 Eurasian Economic Union standards. The Junda refinery in Kara-Balta has an annual processing capacity of 800,000 tons. A $193.75 million modernization project is scheduled for completion by July 31, 2026. The work is intended to increase refining depth, improve efficiency, and expand domestic fuel production. Whether the new refinery reduces import dependence will depend largely on where it obtains crude oil. Kyrgyzstan’s limited domestic production means the plant could still rely on...

Women's Employment

Nearly Half of Young Women in Tajikistan Are Not Working or Studying, Survey Finds

New results from Tajikistan’s 2025 Labor Force Survey point to persistent structural weaknesses in the country’s labor market. Although the official unemployment rate remains relatively low, labor force participation is limited, particularly among women and young people. Of the country’s 6.87 million people aged 15–75, 3.02 million are in the labor force, producing a participation rate of 43.9%. The rate is 57.1% among men and 30.9% among women, a gap of 26.2 percentage points. The World Bank previously described Tajikistan’s labor force participation rate as the lowest in Central Asia. The official unemployment rate is 6.3%, but the survey’s expanded measure of labor underutilization presents a less favorable picture. This measure includes unemployed people and the potential labor force, as well as those experiencing time-related underemployment. On this basis, the rate rises to 11.7%. Among women, it approaches 14%. The survey also shows a gradual shift in where employed people live. The urban share of employment increased from 20% in 2004 to 28.4% in 2025, but 71.6% of employed people still live in rural areas. That figure demonstrates the rural concentration of employment, although it does not by itself show how many people work in agriculture. Separately, the World Bank estimates that agriculture employs more than 40% of Tajikistan’s labor force. The findings on young people are particularly stark. Among those aged 15–24, nearly 27% are not in education, employment or training (NEET). The rate is 40.1% among young women, compared with 13.2% among young men. The gender divide is even wider among those aged 15–29. In this group, 45% of women are neither employed nor pursuing education or training, compared with 12.4% of men. The figures suggest that Tajikistan’s main labor-market challenge is not fully captured by the conventional unemployment rate. People who are not working but are neither actively seeking employment nor immediately available to start work are generally not counted as unemployed. Low participation and high NEET rates therefore reveal pressures that the headline unemployment figure does not. Women and young people account for much of this unused labor potential. Expanding their access to employment will be especially important as the country’s working-age population grows. The World Bank estimates that about 600,000 young people will enter Tajikistan’s labor force over the coming decade and that the economy will need to generate approximately 1.4 million jobs during that period. It also describes the country’s economy as heavily dependent on the export of low-skilled labor and the remittances those workers send home. These concerns are reflected in the World Bank Group’s Country Partnership Framework for Tajikistan for fiscal years 2026–2032. The strategy prioritizes a better-skilled and healthier workforce, along with increased private investment. It also seeks to create more and better jobs and calls for measures to raise labor force participation, particularly among women and young people. In May, the World Bank approved the Tajikistan Women’s Economic Empowerment Project. The initiative is expected to create 3,450 jobs and help 850 women-owned or women-led businesses gain access to financial services. It...

Economic Growth

Uzbekistan Raises 2026 Growth Forecast to 8.1%

Uzbekistan has raised its 2026 economic growth forecast from 6.6% to 8.1%, after stronger-than-expected performance last year and in the first quarter of 2026. The Ministry of Economy and Finance’s updated Fiscal Strategy for 2027-2029 projects nominal GDP of 2.183 quadrillion soums this year (about $180 billion). The revision follows growth of 7.7% in 2025, above the original 6.6% forecast, and an 8.7% expansion in the first quarter of 2026. The ministry expects market services to grow by 16.6% in 2026, industrial production by 8%, construction by 12.4%, and agriculture by 5%. Inflation is forecast to slow to 6.5%, while unemployment falls from 4.8% in 2025 to 4.5%. The stronger projection rests partly on domestic demand. The strategy expects non-gold exports to rise by 20%, capital investment by 12.9%, and remittance growth to remain around 10%. Separate Central Bank figures show that remittances rose 13% to $3.8 billion in the first quarter, helping to support household spending even as Russia’s share of transfers declined. Growth is forecast to slow to 6.9% in 2027, before rising to 7.1% in 2028 and 7.4% in 2029. Inflation is projected at 5-6% in 2027 and 5% in 2028 and 2029. The government also intends to keep the fiscal deficit within its rules and public debt below 40% of GDP. The Ministry of Economy and Finance says meeting these targets will require stronger tax administration, fewer ineffective exemptions, tighter oversight of public-private partnerships, and further action against the shadow economy. It also plans more transparent medium-term budgeting and closer scrutiny of fiscal risks. The success of those reforms will determine whether rapid growth can be sustained without weakening public finances. The fiscal strategy uses the IMF’s April global outlook as part of its external assumptions. The government’s estimate is considerably more optimistic than the IMF’s 6.8% forecast. In its June assessment, the Fund said Uzbekistan’s outlook remained favorable but warned that the economy could be running above its potential. It identified weaker global conditions and domestic overheating as the principal risks. The revised figures also strengthen the government’s claim that the Uzbekistan-2030 Strategy target of an economy worth more than $240 billion remains achievable. The plan relies on private investment, export growth, higher productivity, and continued macroeconomic reforms. Economist Otabek Bakirov said the 8.1% projection would mark the strongest growth in Uzbekistan’s recent history. “According to the Fiscal Strategy forecasts, economic growth will accelerate to 8.1% in 2026. If this happens, it will become a new record for the country’s recent history,” he wrote in an analysis of the forecast. In a separate calculation, Bakirov put nominal GDP above $205 billion in 2027, $228 billion in 2028, and $257 billion in 2029. On that path, the $240 billion target would be surpassed a year early. However, he cautioned that the scenario depends on maintaining strong growth, low inflation, and exchange-rate stability, without a major domestic or external crisis. A weaker soum would reduce the dollar value of GDP even if output continued to rise quickly...

Energy Security

Kazakhstan’s Main Oil Route Remains Vulnerable. It Is Expanding Alternatives

Kazakhstan’s prosperity has been built largely on oil, much of which still reaches world markets through infrastructure crossing Russian territory. That would be a strategic exposure for any country; for a landlocked state bordering Russia during the largest war in Europe since 1945, it is impossible to ignore. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium route to the Black Sea remains Kazakhstan’s most important oil artery, carrying about 80% of its crude exports. Three tankers were struck near the terminal on July 17 and 19, two while loading Kazakh oil. Loadings briefly resumed before a fourth tanker, NELSA, was hit on July 20, forcing another suspension. No casualties or oil spill were reported, but the attacks repeatedly interrupted Kazakhstan’s main export route. Kazakhstan treated the attacks as a direct threat to its own economic interests, not as an incident confined to Russia. Its Foreign Ministry condemned the July 17 and 19 strikes as unacceptable, said an agreed mechanism for sharing information about civilian vessels entering the Black Sea to load CPC oil had been disregarded, and demanded an immediate halt. Ukraine’s General Staff said it had struck two tankers overnight on July 19 as part of its campaign against Russian oil and military-fuel logistics, but did not identify them. CPC said the vessels at its terminal were loading Kazakh crude. The episode exposed Kazakhstan’s dependence on infrastructure beyond its control. That exposure reflects geography and inherited infrastructure, not Kazakhstan’s foreign policy alignment. It is a serious strategic vulnerability that Astana is trying to reduce. Kazakhstan did not choose its geography, and its export system was not designed for the rupture that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is the world’s largest landlocked country, bordered by Russia and China, and sits on the Middle Corridor linking China and Central Asia with the South Caucasus and Europe. No government in Astana can alter those facts. The relevant question is how it has responded to them. Under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kazakhstan remains highly exposed to oil, but it is not an oil economy standing still. KAZENERGY’s 2023 National Energy Report put the hydrocarbon sector at about 23% of GDP in 2019 and about 20% in 2022. Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics put the oil and gas sector at 16.3% of GDP in 2024. The series are not directly comparable, but both indicate that hydrocarbons remain central even as non-oil sectors expand. Oil dependence has not disappeared. UNCTAD notes that oil exports still account for more than half of total exports and remain central to foreign exchange earnings and public finances. Kazakhstan has made more progress in reducing oil’s share of GDP than its weight in exports and state revenue. Any serious assessment has to account for both. Kazakhstan’s position on Ukraine also needs to be judged in context. Binary judgments obscure the constraints facing a country that shares a long border, trade channels, energy infrastructure and significant security exposure with Russia. Kazakhstan has not recognized Russia’s attempted annexations. In 2022, its Foreign Ministry said it would...