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Uzbekistan Targets $43 Billion in Investments to Accelerate Growth

On December 19, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev chaired a government meeting to review foreign investment progress in 2024 and outline goals for 2025. Since 2017, Uzbekistan has attracted a total of $188 billion in investments, including $87 billion in foreign investments. This has increased the share of investments in the country’s GDP to over 30%, providing a solid foundation for sustainable economic growth. In 2024, the volume of investments grew by 1.3 times, surpassing $36 billion. These funds financed 560 large and medium-sized projects, many of which have already been put into operation this year. These projects are expected to boost Uzbekistan’s exports by $1 billion in 2025. For 2025, Uzbekistan aims to utilize $43 billion in investments, funding over 300 large projects. These initiatives will support the production of 662 types of import-substituting goods, further strengthening the country’s industrial base. Mirziyoyev underscored the importance of targeted engagement with foreign investors and improving conditions to attract more investment. The meeting also set an ambitious goal to double Uzbekistan’s annual export volume by 2030, reaching $45 billion. Achieving this target will require launching new investment projects, increasing the production of high-added-value goods, and expanding access to international markets.

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Central Asia Leads in Repatriating Citizens from Syrian Camps

Central Asian governments are at the forefront of efforts to repatriate their citizens from camps in northeastern Syria, according to Khalid Koser, head of the Global Community Engagement and Resilience Fund (GCERF). In an interview with RIA Novosti, Koser highlighted that, unlike European nations, Central Asian states have taken responsibility for their nationals. GCERF is an international organization supporting local initiatives to prevent extremism and violence by fostering partnerships between governments, civil society, and the private sector. Koser noted that approximately 2,200 Central Asian citizens have been repatriated from these camps. Kazakhstan has brought back 754 individuals, Kyrgyzstan 533, Tajikistan 381, and Uzbekistan 531. By contrast, Koser criticized European nations for neglecting their citizens in the camps. “Tajikistan says, ‘These are our citizens, and we are responsible for them,’” Koser stated. “Meanwhile, Western Europe hopes the problem will disappear, leaving people to die in camps.” The head of GCERF also pointed out the challenges of repatriating men, many of whom were combatants. “The question now is how to handle those who fought, were involved in terrorism, and face difficulties reintegrating. Most will end up in prison, which could lead to further radicalization within the prison system,” Koser warned. The camps in northeastern Syria, managed by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the United States, house 65,000 to 70,000 people. Most of the residents are women and children from families of ISIS militants. While the camps are not officially prisons, movement is restricted, and Kurdish forces prevent residents from leaving. The Times of Central Asia has previously reviewed the repatriation operations undertaken by Central Asian countries, which continue to set a global example in addressing this humanitarian and security challenge.

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Anti-Migrant Wave Rises in Russia Following General’s Murder

Anti-migrant sentiment is intensifying in Russia following the murder of a high-ranking general, with calls from populist media outlets and bloggers urging the Kremlin to tighten its migration policies. Experts warn that this tension is likely to escalate. They argue that the Russian authorities are redirecting public frustration toward Central Asians as a means of improving domestic social stability. Anti-migrant rhetoric coming out of Russia is increasingly being wielded as a tool to exert leverage on Central Asian nations. General Kirillov Murder: Uzbeks Question Russian Narrative of Kurbonov's Arrest The recent arrest of an Uzbek citizen accused of committing a terrorist act - allegedly recruited by Ukrainian security services - has added fuel to the fire. This incident follows a long-standing pattern of discrimination against Central Asian labor migrants in Russia. In Uzbekistan, people are questioning the arrest in Moscow this week of 29-year-old courier Akhmadjon Kurbonov, who stands accused of murdering Russian general Igor Kirillov. The head of Russia's radiation, chemical, and biological defense forces, Kirillov was heavily involved in Russia's war with Ukraine. The media in Russia has claimed that Kurbonov carried out the assassination - and that of Kirillov's assistant Ilya Polikarpov - on behalf of the Ukrainian government in exchange for financial reward and residency in Europe. This version of events has sparked widespread debate in Uzbekistan. On social media, people have raised questions about the credibility of the allegations. Analyst Shuxrat Rasul described the accusation as “hard to believe.” On Facebook, Uzbek citizens such as Anvar Sagdullayev have questioned the narrative, commenting, “How can a man accused of murder appear so calm, as if reciting a prepared script? Perhaps this was orchestrated by interests closer to home.” Another Facebook user, Raimbergan Kuchkarov, speculated that internal conflicts are being stoked by using migrants as scapegoats. “The Russians themselves likely don’t know where their generals live. Why would a high-ranking officer be targeted by someone from Uzbekistan? This seems like a provocation,” Kuchkarov wrote. The case has also raised concerns among Uzbek immigrants in Russia, who fear that collective blame for the alleged actions of one individual may exacerbate prejudice and discrimination against their community. The Embassy of Uzbekistan in Russia has responded by stating that it is in contact with Russian law enforcement agencies and is working to verify details regarding the detained Uzbek citizen. On December 19, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev held a phone conversation with Vladimir Putin to discuss bilateral and regional cooperation. The leaders highlighted the importance of close collaboration between their countries’ special services to combat security threats. The Kremlin noted that the discussion was initiated by the Uzbek side. During the call, Mirziyoyev expressed condolences for the deaths of General Kirillov and Polikarpov, condemning the attack as a “heinous act of terrorism.” Increasing Pressure The situation for migrants in Russia has worsened significantly since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Migrants have faced frequent raids, detentions, and the threat of deportation. Legislative changes have further tightened entry and residency rules....

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Kyrgyzstan Cracks Down on Major Religious Extremist Organization

In Jalal-Abad, officers of Kyrgyzstan's State Committee for National Security (SCNS) neutralized one of the largest structural networks of the banned religious extremist organization Hizb ut-Tahrir. According to the SCNS press service, 22 active members of the organization were detained, including the leader (“masul”), five spiritual leaders (“nakibs”), and eight teachers (“mushrifs”) who taught extremist ideology to small groups of 3-5 students in clandestine settings. The SCNS reported that the detainees had been actively spreading destructive ideas, recruiting supporters, and distributing extremist materials for several years. During the operation, authorities discovered an underground printing house where extremist materials were being produced. A large cache of literature, as well as computers and copying equipment, was seized. The SCNS also noted that members of the network used drones to ensure the security of their meetings by detecting possible surveillance by law enforcement agencies. The detainees are currently being held in the SCNS detention center, and investigations are ongoing to identify additional members of the network and their activities. Hizb ut-Tahrir is an international religious extremist organization banned in Kyrgyzstan since 2003. Its goal is to establish a global Islamic caliphate by overthrowing secular governments. The organization is particularly active in Kyrgyzstan's southern regions, where it promotes extremist ideology and recruits new members. Kyrgyz authorities have been proactive in combating Hizb ut-Tahrir, regularly detaining its members and working to suppress its activities.

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Kyrgyzstan Unveils Ambitious Growth Plans at People’s Kurultai

On December 20, Bishkek hosted the third People’s Kurultai (Congress), a platform for direct dialogue between representatives of local communities from across Kyrgyzstan and the country’s top leadership. The event featured opening remarks by President Sadyr Japarov and a detailed address by newly appointed Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, Adylbek Kasymaliyev, who outlined the government’s economic priorities and strategic plans for the future. Japarov set the tone for the event by sharing his vision for Kyrgyzstan’s development priorities. He announced that construction of the long-anticipated China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will commence on December 27. Kasymaliev, in his address, emphasized Kyrgyzstan’s ability to sustain economic momentum, citing the country’s 9% annual GDP growth rate over the past three years. He highlighted key initiatives aimed at transforming Kyrgyzstan’s economic landscape, including: Strategic Infrastructure Projects: Kasymaliyev underscored the significance of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which is expected to create new economic centers and logistics hubs, effectively positioning Kyrgyzstan as a "land port" in the region. Hydropower and Renewable Energy: As a reliable partner in Central Asia’s hydropower sector, Kyrgyzstan will continue collaborating with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan on the flagship Kambarata-1 hydroelectric power plant. Kasymaliyev also announced plans to expand solar and wind energy, eliminate state monopolies in the energy sector, and create conditions to attract private investment. Agriculture and Food Security: The government will prioritize agricultural processing to add value to raw products, ensuring food security and bolstering rural economic development. Construction as an Economic Driver: With construction contributing 7.4% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP - a tenfold increase since 2013 - Kasymaliyev called the industry a vital indicator of economic growth. He noted that construction has significantly improved citizens' well-being over the past three years. Government’s Strategic Goals Kasymaliyev laid out an ambitious roadmap for the Cabinet of Ministers, aiming for the following by 2030: Economic Growth: Maintaining a GDP growth rate of 9% and achieving a GDP of $30 billion. Income Growth: Raising GDP per capita from $2,500 to $4,000. Economic Transition: Shifting from a services-oriented economy to an industrial-agrarian model. Support for Small and Medium Businesses: Increasing their share in GDP from the current 40.5% to 50%. Poverty Reduction: Lowering the poverty rate to 17%. Education Expansion: Ensuring 80% of preschool-age children have access to kindergarten. Kasymaliyev’s address underscored the government’s commitment to comprehensive economic reforms and regional cooperation. His plans reflected an optimistic vision for Kyrgyzstan’s development while addressing key challenges in energy, infrastructure, and social services.

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Central Asia Faces Devastating $9 Billion Annual Loss from Climate Crises

Central Asia faces a complex mix of development challenges, according to a study conducted by the Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA). These include global issues such as climate change, rising inequality, and demographic shifts, alongside regional concerns like water crises, aging infrastructure, border conflicts, and lack of access to sea routes. The region’s challenges can be categorized into external and internal risks. Since gaining independence, Central Asia has been shaped by the influence of global powers. Trade, security, energy, and education ties with Russia remain strong, while China’s Belt and Road Initiative has led to significant investment in infrastructure. Western nations and multinational corporations are active primarily in the raw materials sector, particularly in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. While these international connections drive economic growth, they also heighten the region’s vulnerability to global shocks. For example, heavy reliance on remittances from migrant workers and low export diversification increase economic fragility. Climate change poses one of the most pressing threats to the region. Natural disasters—including floods, which affect about one million people annually, and earthquakes, impacting two million - result in $9 billion in annual GDP losses. Rising temperatures are expected to exacerbate issues such as water scarcity, droughts, heat waves, and the loss of agricultural land. Adopting sustainable development practices and green technologies could help mitigate these effects. Aging water and energy infrastructure is a major hurdle for the region. Energy insecurity, compounded by climate change, limits economic potential. Despite a rise in foreign investment from $1.5 billion in 2000 to $7.4 billion in 2023, the majority of funds are concentrated in raw materials, with only a small share allocated to infrastructure improvements. Transport development is equally critical. The lack of sea access places Central Asia at a 20% developmental disadvantage compared to coastal nations. Expanding roads, railways, and logistics hubs could significantly enhance regional and international trade. Territorial disputes, particularly around enclaves, remain a source of periodic clashes, with the Kyrgyz-Tajik border clashes of 2022 being a notable example. While these conflicts may not immediately affect economic stability, escalations could damage the region’s investment climate and trade prospects. A peace agreement signed later in 2022 has helped to stabilize the situation. Additionally, the situation in Afghanistan continues to present challenges, including terrorism, refugee flows, and border security concerns. These risks intensified following the regime change in Afghanistan in 2021, increasing the urgency for stronger border controls. Addressing these interconnected challenges will require coordinated efforts among all Central Asian nations. International organizations and major global partners must also play a role by supporting infrastructure and technological modernization. Such collaboration is essential to mitigating economic risks and fostering long-term development in the region.