Business & Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Opinion: Kazakhstan Bets Big on AI to Power Local and Global Growth

A bold vision for Kazakhstan’s future In his recent State of the Nation address, the President of Kazakhstan articulated a bold and ambitious future for the country. He presented a new vision, central to which was the announcement of artificial intelligence adoption and digitization as new national priorities, positioning them as essential for the country’s economic modernization and long-term competitiveness. The speech marked a significant moment for the government. Historically, much of its policy focus has been on managing risk and navigating regulatory uncertainty. Now, the administration is pivoting to focus instead on high-growth, innovation-led initiatives to build a more competitive and resilient Kazakhstan that can thrive in a rapidly changing global economy. In his address, President Tokayev announced the creation of the Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development. Its initial mandate is to develop the Digital Code, a comprehensive framework that will set out how every sector of the economy, from finance and energy to education and healthcare, will integrate AI and digital tools in a structured and sustainable way. Leapfrogging into the digital economy Kazakhstan is embracing leapfrog innovation to harness tools such as AI and blockchain technologies to help accelerate economic growth and diversify its economy. This bet will ensure that the nation remains competitive for generations to come in a digital-led global landscape where technology leadership increasingly defines prosperity. Central to the project’s long-term success is the evolution of Kazakhstan’s educational system, and the country has recently approved its first national framework for integrating AI into its curriculum, signaling a major shift toward future-ready learning. This initiative covers areas including ethics, legal regulation, personal data protection, and academic integrity. Kazakhstan is now one of the first countries to adopt its own national approach in this field, having drawn on the recommendations of UNESCO, OECD, and the EU’s work to ensure global best practices. Building tomorrow’s AI leaders today From the 2025–2026 academic year, AI is being integrated throughout the curriculum with the aim of converting classrooms into technology-literate talent pipelines. Students will benefit from new online courses, while teachers will be supported with professional development programs (with over 11,000 teachers already trained and more to follow). Globally, the adoption of AI in education is surging. According to AllAboutAI, in 2025, 86% of students worldwide use AI in their studies, and half of all teachers will leverage AI for lesson planning. The market for AI in education is projected to reach over $2.7 trillion by 2033, having been valued at $177 billion in 2023. With nearly 30% of Kazakhstan’s population under the age of 15 and a median age of just 29, the country is well placed to transform its students into a new generation of professionals ready to contribute to the country’s technological evolution and global competitiveness. Universities such as the Astana IT University (AITU), International Information Technology University, and the Kazakh-British Technical University, all part of the NNEF ecosystem, are at the forefront of integrating AI across their curricula, ensuring that students gain the skills they need for the digital economy and innovation-driven...

Finance

Central Asia’s Digital Currency Ambitions: New Opportunities and Old Constraints

Central Asia is entering a period of accelerated financial transformation. Kyrgyzstan has launched one of the world’s first state-backed gold-backed stablecoin, USDKG, a digital asset fully backed by physical gold and issued under the direct supervision of the Ministry of Finance. Simultaneously, Kazakhstan is advancing one of the most mature central bank digital currency (CBDC) initiatives in the post-Soviet space: the digital tenge (national currency). Uzbekistan is developing its own digital economy framework, while Tajikistan and Turkmenistan are slowly initiating financial modernization. Amid these developments, Central Asia is emerging as a surprisingly bold laboratory for digital finance. This raises a pressing question: can the region develop a unified digital currency ecosystem that reduces dollar dependency, facilitates cross-border transactions, and enhances economic sovereignty? Strategic Logic of Digital Integration The idea of a regional digital currency is no longer utopian. Central Asia is one of the world's most significant hubs for cross-border remittances. In 2024 alone, migrants sent back a record $5.8 billion to Tajikistan (45% of GDP), approximately $15 billion to Uzbekistan, $2.9 billion to Kyrgyzstan, and $258 million to Kazakhstan. The current system is costly, slow, and heavily reliant on the dollar. Digital currencies could drastically reduce transaction costs for both migrant workers and businesses. In remote areas, where banking infrastructure is underdeveloped, cash still dominates. CBDCs could allow citizens to access state payment services directly, bypassing commercial banks. Digital finance also offers protection against external economic shocks, sanctions, and volatility. Coupled with the digitalization drives in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, and regional integration ambitions, such as Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s proposal to create a Central Asian Community, conditions are forming for financial cooperation. Diverse National Models Approaches to digital currency vary significantly. Kazakhstan’s digital tenge, led by the National Bank, emphasizes institutional stability, security, and integration with existing banking systems. A full launch is expected by the end of 2025. Kyrgyzstan has taken a more unconventional route. Its USDKG stablecoin, built on the Tron blockchain and backed by gold, aims to assert financial autonomy. However, it raises concerns about transparency, sustainability, and the reaction of traditional banks. A gold-backed stablecoin also directly challenges dollar dominance. Crypto analysts such as Ryan Adams speculate that Washington may be monitoring Kyrgyzstan’s experiment closely, fearing it could inspire similar moves in India, China, and Brazil. Uzbekistan is advancing its digital economy cautiously. While its government maintains strict cryptocurrency controls, this regulatory clarity may lay groundwork for a CBDC, though it limits space for innovation. Tajikistan and Turkmenistan remain on the sidelines, but rising demographic pressures, migration, and logistics projects are nudging both toward digital finance. The lack of coordination among these models represents both an opportunity for experimentation and a barrier to integration. Key Challenges Despite growing momentum, the road to a unified digital architecture in Central Asia remains fraught. The first major obstacle is regulatory fragmentation. Digital currencies require legal reforms across currency legislation, taxation, customs, and anti-money laundering/counter-financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) protocols. At present, each state operates independently, making regional harmonization...

Immigration

How the Russian Relocation Wave Reshaped Kazakhstan’s Economy

In September 2022, northern Kazakhstan’s border crossings experienced huge surges as tens of thousands of Russians fled mobilization for the war in Ukraine. In Almaty and Astana, rental prices soared to historic highs, and social infrastructure came under intense pressure. At the time, the influx seemed poised to destabilize the country’s established equilibrium. Two years on, the situation has transformed. The initial surge subsided, and spontaneous migration underwent a natural filtering process. Many who saw Kazakhstan as a temporary stop have moved on or returned to Russia. Those who made a conscious decision to stay have legalized their status and integrated into the local economy. Despite initial fears, the mass relocation did not damage Kazakhstan’s economy. On the contrary, the so-called "Russian exodus" accelerated Almaty and Astana’s evolution into cosmopolitan urban centers, while introducing lasting economic shifts. A New Diaspora Understanding the impact of the mass migration requires distinguishing transient travelers from those who settled. During the peak in autumn 2022, more than 400,000 Russian citizens crossed the border, though most quickly departed Kazakhstan. According to Kazakhstan’s Interior Ministry, from January 2023 to September 2024, more than 80,000 Russian citizens received residence permits for work. Including family members and remote workers, the core of the relocated population can be estimated at 100,000–120,000 people. Those who remained form a skilled urban middle class, IT specialists, engineers, doctors, and entrepreneurs, largely aged 25 to 40. When the “visa run” legal loophole allowing stay extensions by briefly exiting the country was abolished in January 2023, many were forced to legalize their presence. The rule change pushed many relocants to formalize their stay through work contracts or business registration, which in turn made their economic activity more visible to the state. By the end of 2023, the number of registered legal entities with Russian participation exceeded 18,000, a 70% increase. In 2024, that number rose to more than 23,000. The “Cappuccino Effect” The arrival of tens of thousands of solvent consumers brought not only capital, but also the consumption habits of Russia’s megacities. International institutions, including the IMF, have acknowledged that Kazakhstan’s 2023 GDP growth was supported in part by robust domestic demand. Spending surged in restaurants, delivery services, taxis, and gyms, especially in Almaty and Astana. This boost helped small and medium-sized businesses recover from the pandemic. Russian entrepreneurs, opening everything from coffee shops to architecture firms, raised service standards and intensified competition. Local businesses responded by improving their quality and digitalizing operations. However, this also pushed up consumer prices, contributing to inflation and affecting local purchasing power. Housing remains the most visible pressure point. While the panic of late 2022 has passed, rents remain well above pre-crisis levels. Analysts estimate that average house prices are still 40% higher than in 2021. This has fueled gentrification, with central Almaty’s “Golden Square” and elite areas of Astana becoming expat enclaves. Students, public sector workers, and young families have increasingly been pushed to the outskirts, increasing commuting times and straining public transport. Many relocants are...

Currency

Turkmenistan Introduces New 200 Manat Polymer Banknote

Turkmenistan has unveiled a new 200 manat polymer banknote as part of a broader upgrade to its national currency, state news agency TDH reported on December 1. The Central Bank announced that the new note, along with updated polymer versions of the 1, 5, and 10 manat denominations, has entered circulation in honor of the 30th anniversary of Turkmenistan’s recognition as a permanently neutral state. The release also coincides with the 2025 theme: the International Year of Peace and Trust. While the 1, 5, and 10 manat notes retain their existing color schemes and general designs, each now includes the emblem of the International Year of Peace and Trust. The newly introduced 200 manat note depicts the Arkadag Monument on the front and the administrative building of the Arkadag city khyakimlik (mayor’s office) on the reverse. All updated notes bear the year of issue and the facsimile signature of the Central Bank chairperson. The Central Bank emphasized that the new and modified banknotes must be accepted at face value by all institutions and businesses, regardless of ownership or sector. Earlier series issued in 2009, 2012, 2014, 2017, and 2020 remain valid legal tender. To combat counterfeiting, authorities advised the public to verify at least five security features when handling cash. Detailed guidance is available on the Central Bank’s official website. Last year, the Central Bank implemented a range of reforms aimed at improving cash quality and strengthening anti-counterfeiting controls throughout the financial system. In a related regional development, Kyrgyzstan in March began domestic production of its national currency, the som, for the first time since gaining independence. The new Kyrgyz banknotes are printed by the Bishkek-based Open Joint Stock Company Uchkun, replacing previous reliance on European printing facilities.

Agriculture

Kazakhstan Launches Michurin Orchard to Advance High-Tech Horticulture

Kazakhstan has taken a significant step in modernizing its agricultural sector with the inauguration of the Michurin Orchard, a collaborative venture between the National Academy of Sciences of Kazakhstan and the Russian Academy of Sciences. The orchard, launched on December 1 in the village of Almalyk, Almaty region, will serve as a flagship platform for developing intensive horticulture and integrating science with high-value agricultural production. The initiative is part of the Kazakh-Russian Center for Advanced Technologies in the Agro-Industrial Sector, established in April 2025. Named after Ivan Michurin (1855-1935), a renowned Russian pioneer in plant selection, the orchard will operate as an open-air research and production site. Its core objectives include testing promising fruit and berry varieties, applying intensive horticultural techniques, and deploying water-, energy-, and resource-saving technologies. Initial plantings will focus on high-yield Russian apple cultivars adapted to Kazakhstan’s climate, along with pear, cherry, sweet cherry, plum, and a broad range of berries such as raspberry, honeysuckle, currants, sea buckthorn, and rose hips. Akhylbek Kurishbayev, President of the National Academy of Sciences of Kazakhstan, described the orchard as “a long-term investment in the development of Kazakhstan’s fruit growing industry.” He emphasized that the initial three-hectare planting represents the foundation of a new generation of resilient, high-productivity varieties capable of withstanding climatic stress. Kurishbayev noted that the Michurin Orchard will contribute to national breeding programs, build a sustainable raw material base for food processing industries, ranging from juices and concentrates to functional foods and help shift Kazakhstan’s agro-industrial model from raw-materials dependence to knowledge-intensive production. The orchard will also function as a live testing ground for horticultural technologies, from the selection of planting material to the delivery of premium fruit to consumers. Horticulture is emerging as a strategic growth sector within Kazakhstan’s agro-industrial complex. According to Deputy Minister of Agriculture Yerbol Taszhurekov, Kazakhstan’s apple orchards now span nearly 29,000 hectares, predominantly located in the southern regions of Almaty, Turkestan, Zhambyl, and Zhetisu. In Almaty and Zhetisu regions alone, apple orchards cover more than 2,400 hectares and include over 416,000 trees. In parallel, Kazakhstan is working to revive the iconic aport apple, a variety deeply intertwined with the country's botanical heritage and the city of Almaty, widely regarded as the ancestral home of the apple. Under a targeted 2024-2028 program involving private investors and specialized nurseries, the government aims to produce certified saplings and scale commercial aport cultivation. By 2027, Kazakhstan plans to plant 110 hectares of aport orchards.

Caspian Pipeline Consortium

Why Attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium Could Alter Kazakhstan’s Strategic Plans

Attacks on the infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), reduced export flows, and volatility in commodity markets are generating serious pressures for Kazakhstan. In the coming years, both the country’s financial system and its domestic political balance may face significant tests. A number of experts warn that disruptions in oil logistics via the CPC, which remains the main artery for Kazakh crude exports, could depress budget revenues, strain national companies, and worsen the sovereign outlook. Kazakhstan pumps roughly 80% of its oil exports through the CPC system, and oil revenues account for more than half of the country’s total export earnings. Because CPC Blend is Kazakhstan’s primary export-grade crude, even short interruptions can reverberate through the state budget, the National Fund, and the balance sheets of national companies. This could trigger a domino effect, destabilizing broad swathes of the economy and undermining public finances. Already, the recent rounds of disruption around Black Sea oil shipping are eroding a substantial source of tax revenue for the state. Continued Risk of Strikes Political scientist Dosym Satpaev argues that Kazakhstan may be underestimating the intensity and persistence of the conflict surrounding Ukraine. He contends that both sides in that conflict have used strikes on energy infrastructure as key tools, a tactic that will likely continue. The recent strike targeted the CPC’s single-point moorings (SPMs) at Novorossiysk, a coastal terminal on the Russian Black Sea. These offshore loading points sit in relatively shallow waters and are physically exposed, making them susceptible to the naval drones Ukraine has increasingly deployed against Russian maritime infrastructure. Although the attack officially targeted Russian facilities, the collateral implications for Kazakh oil exports were immediate. According to Satpaev, that means further risks for the CPC. The fact that Kazakhstan remains heavily dependent on this single pipeline reflects a broader failure to diversify exports and reduce reliance on raw material transit. The vulnerability is magnified by the CPC’s ownership structure: although Kazakhstan relies on it for most of its exports, the pipeline network and the Novorossiysk terminal lie on Russian territory and operate under Russian regulatory oversight. Russia holds a majority stake in the consortium, while U.S. firms such as Chevron and Exxon also have significant shares, creating a complex web of interests that limits Astana’s room for manoeuvre. Kazakhstan has already experienced how this dependence can be leveraged. In 2022, Russian regulators repeatedly halted CPC operations over alleged “environmental violations,” moves widely interpreted as political pressure at a moment of diplomatic friction. That precedent underscores how strategic vulnerability to CPC disruptions predates the current wave of attacks. Satpaev is skeptical that alternative export routes, such as via pipelines through the Caspian Sea to Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan or transit to China, can substitute for the CPC in the near term. Given the global trend toward reduced oil demand, he believes this leaves Kazakhstan exposed to long-term structural risks. At the same time, Satpaev views as unlikely the possibility that Ukraine would attempt to directly stop the CPC’s operations, given the broader consequences such...