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Economic Growth

Kyrgyzstan Reports Strong Economic Growth and Budget Surplus

Kyrgyzstan's consolidated budget for 2025 is expected to exceed $12.5 billion, marking the first time it will cross the historic threshold of one trillion soms. The announcement was made by Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Adylbek Kasymaliev during a government meeting on December 8. Kasymaliev stated that while the 2025 state budget was initially approved at the equivalent of $8 billion, it had expanded by $4.3 billion by year-end, leaving the country with a budget surplus of more than $110 million. According to the Statistics Department of the Eurasian Economic Commission, Kyrgyzstan was the only member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) to post a budget surplus in the first nine months of 2025. The surplus totaled $1 billion, with revenues reaching $4.9 billion and expenditures at $3.9 billion. By comparison, the surplus in the same period of 2024 was $0.5 billion. Citing International Monetary Fund data, Kasymaliev noted that Kyrgyzstan ranked among the top three countries globally in terms of real GDP growth in 2024. The national economy grew by 10% in the first ten months of 2025, with all major sectors showing expansion. The construction sector led with a remarkable 42.8% growth rate. GDP per capita for 2025, initially projected at $2,616, is now expected to reach $2,770 by the end of the year. Kyrgyzstan’s international reserves also saw a significant increase. As of the end of October 2025, reserves stood at $7.955 billion, up by $3.02 billion compared to October 2024, according to the National Bank. The National Statistics Committee earlier reported that Kyrgyzstan’s GDP grew by 11.5% in 2024. Services accounted for the largest share of GDP at 52.3%, followed by goods-producing industries at 33.3%, industry at 17%, construction at 7.7%, and agriculture at 8.6%. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecasts record-high economic growth for Kyrgyzstan in 2025, driven by robust investment activity. From January to October, fixed capital investment rose by 18.9%, with state budget funds and company resources accounting for 31% and 23% of that total, respectively.

External Debt

Uzbekistan’s External Debt Reaches $43.97 Billion

Uzbekistan’s external debt reached 43.97 billion dollars as of October 1, according to data released by the Ministry of Economy and Finance. The increase of 473 million dollars over the previous quarter reflects a slowdown in borrowing, even as the government continues to rely on foreign funding to sustain public spending and major infrastructure projects. The country’s largest creditor remains the World Bank, which has extended 8 billion dollars in loans. This is followed by the Asian Development Bank with 7.5 billion dollars and international investors who hold 5.8 billion dollars in Eurobonds. Loans from Chinese financial institutions total 3.7 billion dollars, while Japanese lenders account for 3.1 billion dollars. Additional borrowing includes 1.7 billion dollars from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and 1.2 billion dollars from France. Multilateral lenders such as the Islamic Development Bank also contribute to the total, along with a group of smaller international creditors that collectively account for 2.5 billion dollars. Debt denominated in U.S. dollars comprises 63% of Uzbekistan’s total external debt, while 12% is in Uzbek som, 8% in euros, and 6% in Japanese yen. The remainder is held in Special Drawing Rights and other currencies. In a related development, RIA Novosti, citing World Bank figures, reported that Uzbekistan increased its debt to Russia by 39 million dollars in 2024. This small rise came amid a broader trend across 38 countries whose combined debt to Russia grew to 33.1 billion dollars last year, the highest level since 1998.

Economic Growth

Kazakhstan Projects Strong GDP Growth as Economy Nears 300 Billion Dollars in 2025

Kazakhstan’s economy is entering a new phase of growth. By the end of 2025, the country’s gross domestic product is projected to exceed $300 billion for the first time, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced at a national award ceremony for the Altyn Sapa, Paryz, and Best Product of Kazakhstan prizes. Over the past decade, Kazakhstan’s GDP has shown consistent growth in absolute terms, with the exception of the pandemic year of 2020, when the economy contracted to $171.1 billion. Since then, the country has reached new historical highs each year, from $197.1 billion in 2021 to $288.41 billion in 2024. In 2025, growth is expected to reach a record level.The president noted that, over the past five years, growth in the real sector has become noticeably more balanced. Gross value added in the manufacturing industry increased by 25 percent, outpacing growth in the extractive sector. “Economic growth is expected to exceed 6% this year,” Tokayev said. “Moreover, GDP is projected to exceed $300 billion for the first time” The president highlighted that, over the past five years, growth in the real sector has become noticeably more balanced. Gross value added in the manufacturing industry increased by 25%, outpacing the growth of the extractive sector. Investments in fixed capital grew by 70% over the same period, and labor productivity rose by 40%. As a result, non-resource exports doubled, the number of exporters tripled, and the geography of supply expanded to 140 countries. According to Tokayev, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) now account for 40% of GDP and remain one of the most dynamic segments of the economy. “Over the past five years, the number of SMEs has increased by 1.5 times, and their output by 2.5 times. Today, 4.5 million people work in the business sector, almost half of the country’s employed population,” the president said. Tokayev also placed particular emphasis on the finalization of certain provisions in the new Tax Code, which is set to take effect in 2026. The president acknowledged that he had received a large number of appeals from entrepreneurs and instructed the government to carefully review the most problematic provisions. “It is important to understand that the sustainable development of entrepreneurship is based on the fulfillment of mutual obligations: the state creates the climate, and businesses pay taxes. The government must find a reasonable balance, there is no other option,” he stated. The president also called for continued development of the country’s digital business ecosystem to enhance transparency and reduce bureaucratic hurdles. Kazakhstan plans to significantly increase investment in its economy over the next five years, with the goal of nearly tripling its volume by 2029.

Turkic Investment Fund

Turkic Investment Fund to Launch Operations in Early 2026

At a meeting held in Bishkek on December 5, the Board of Governors of the Turkic Investment Fund (TIF) announced that the Fund will begin its operational activities in the first quarter of 2026. With an initial authorized capital of 500 million dollars and a potential increase to 1.5 billion dollars, the TIF is the first dedicated financial institution jointly established by the Turkic states. Its mission is to enhance economic cooperation, boost intra-regional trade, and support sustainable development across the Turkic world. Headquartered in Istanbul, the Fund will finance major joint projects among member states of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). The OTS, founded in 2009, includes Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Hungary and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus participate as observer states. The TIF was officially established during an extraordinary OTS summit in Ankara in March 2023, with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan as founding members. Hungary joined in June 2024, while Turkmenistan maintains observer status. According to the Board of Governors, the institutional infrastructure required for TIF operations was largely completed in 2025, and preparatory work on a pipeline of investment projects is currently underway. The Board emphasized that the decision to initiate operations reflects growing expectations among member states for the Fund to begin allocating resources and advancing strategic initiatives. During the Bishkek meeting, Uzbekistan’s representative, Laziz Kudratov, Minister of Investment, Industry and Trade, was elected Chairman of the TIF Board of Governors. The Fund will pursue its mandate by offering preferential loans, co-financing projects alongside international financial institutions, and attracting private investment into key sectors of the region’s economies. Following the inaugural meeting of the TIF Board in Istanbul in May 2024, the Turkish Ministry of Finance projected that the combined economic output of the Turkic states would reach $1.9 trillion by the end of 2024, with a population of approximately 178 million.

ACWA Power

Uzbekistan Lifts Import Duties and Advances ACWA Power Projects

Uzbekistan will remove unilateral import duties for seven countries as part of a government initiative to develop its construction materials sector, according to a presidential decree published on Lex.uz. The countries included in the exemption are Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Mongolia. The Ministry of Investments, Industry and Trade, in coordination with the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Customs Committee, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has been given two months to draft a program of measures through 2027. This program will focus on lifting import duties and establishing systems for mutual recognition of certificates of origin with the designated states. A separate plan for conducting intergovernmental negotiations with each of the seven countries will also be prepared. In parallel, the interagency commission on cooperation with the World Trade Organization has been tasked with approving, within two weeks, a list of raw materials and inputs for the construction materials industry that will be exempt from customs duties until January 1, 2028. According to the decree, Uzbekistan aims to increase domestic production of construction materials to UZS 62 trillion and boost exports to $1.5 billion. The government plans to promote the use of energy-efficient and environmentally friendly materials, while facilitating investment in the sector. Projects totaling $3.5 billion are expected to be launched. Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjaev will supervise the approval of project parameters in cooperation with regional authorities and the O’zsanoatqurilishmateriallari association. Border security services have been instructed to ensure the safe passage of Uzbek business representatives through the Termez border crossing into Afghanistan. The decree coincides with Uzbekistan’s deepening economic ties with key international partners. On November 5, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev met with a delegation of Saudi companies led by Mohammad Abunayyan, chairman of ACWA Power and co-chair of the Uzbek-Saudi Business Council. The sides reviewed ongoing joint projects and explored new areas for collaboration. During the visit, four wind power plants with a combined capacity of 752 megawatts were connected to the national grid. Construction also began on five additional wind plants with a total capacity of 2.3 gigawatts, along with 300 megawatts of energy storage systems in Karakalpakstan and the Bukhara region. Work has also commenced on a 500-kilovolt power line spanning 1,790 kilometers, intended to improve energy transmission across Samarkand, the Tashkent region, Karakalpakstan, and Bukhara. The talks also addressed cooperation in transport infrastructure, IT, healthcare, agriculture, and other sectors, highlighting the government’s broader push to strengthen partnerships and attract investment across the Uzbek economy.

Aviation

Kazakhstan Expands Airbus Ties and Strengthens French Aviation Cooperation

Kazakhstan is strengthening its cooperation with European aerospace firms and preparing to modernize its civil aviation fleet. In Paris, during the Kazakh-French Business Council and the 16th Intergovernmental Commission on Economic Cooperation, a memorandum was signed for the delivery of Airbus A320neo aircraft. The document was signed by Talgat Lastayev, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister of Transport. The agreement provides for the delivery of 25 A320neo aircraft, with an option to expand the order by another 25 units. The A320neo is an upgraded version of the widely used narrow-body Airbus A320. The abbreviation “neo” (New Engine Option) refers to its modern engines, which reduce fuel consumption by 15% and operating costs by 8%. The aircraft also offers a 10% reduction in emissions and lower noise levels compared to the classic A320 series. “During the meeting between Talgat Lastayev and Airbus Vice President Charbel Youzkatli, the delivery schedule, currently set for 2031 and the possibility of acceleration were discussed. In addition,. In addition, the Deputy Minister raised the issue of establishing a joint aviation training center and expanding aircraft leasing cooperation,” the Ministry of Transport said in a statement. Additional areas of cooperation with international partners were also discussed. These included airport infrastructure upgrades with TAV Airports and expanded industrial collaboration with Alstom. The delegation also raised the restoration of direct flights between Paris and Astana and the potential launch of a new route between Shymkent and Nice. The Kazakh delegation, led by Lastayev, also met with the leadership of the French National Civil Aviation School (ENAC), including Director-General Olivier Chansou and Deputy Director General Nicolas Cazalis. Talks centered on creating a European-level regional aviation training center in Astana, which is expected to become a key piece of infrastructure for training aviation professionals across Central Asia. “The presence of such a training center in Kazakhstan will reduce the sector’s dependence on foreign training institutions and ensure the development of skilled professionals domestically. Cooperation will focus on the systematic training of local personnel and the exchange of international experience,” the Ministry stated. According to the Ministry of Transport, Kazakhstan’s aviation industry needs 500-600 new specialists each year, including pilots, engineers, air traffic controllers, and ground handling personnel. However, the country’s current training institutions do not meet the European standards set by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). ENAC is the only aviation education institution globally that meets the standards of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), EASA, the International Air Transport Association (IATA), and Airports Council International (ACI). Founded in 1946 in Toulouse, the school now partners with over 117 countries and offers more than 350 educational and professional development programs. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan is actively expanding its international air routes. Following the C5+1 working group conference on civil aviation held in August this year, new international routes were launched and flight frequencies to China and Uzbekistan increased.