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External Debt

The Central Asia Debt Divide: Why the Region’s Borrowing Risks Are Not the Same

Central Asia’s biggest debtor is not necessarily its most vulnerable. Kazakhstan accounts for roughly two-thirds of the region’s external liabilities, but much of that debt sits on corporate balance sheets rather than the government’s. Tajikistan owes a fraction of the amount, yet remains at high risk of debt distress. The contrast highlights the Central Asia debt divide. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rely more heavily on sovereign and concessional borrowing, while Uzbekistan’s external liabilities are now split almost evenly between the public and corporate sectors. Based on the latest available figures from national authorities and international financial institutions, the combined external debt of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan approached $275 billion in early 2026. Turkmenistan has not been included in the estimate because the country does not publish comprehensive official external debt statistics that can be directly compared with those of its regional neighbors. The total is an approximate calculation compiled from national statistics rather than a regional aggregate published by a single institution. The countries also release their debt data for different reporting dates and use different classifications, requiring caution when making direct comparisons. Total external debt includes obligations owed to non-residents by governments, central banks, commercial banks, private companies, and, in some countries, local subsidiaries of foreign corporations. Government external debt is a narrower measure covering liabilities that are directly serviced or guaranteed by the state. China remains an important bilateral creditor, particularly in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, while multilateral institutions provide much of the region’s infrastructure and public-sector financing. Kyrgyzstan: Rising Debt, but a Broader Creditor Base Kyrgyzstan’s public debt has risen alongside increased infrastructure spending and domestic borrowing, although its creditor base has become more diversified. A smaller share is now owed to a single bilateral lender, while multilateral financing and the domestic securities market have grown in importance. According to the Kyrgyz Ministry of Finance’s public debt data, the country’s total public debt stood at approximately $8.94 billion as of May 31, 2026, including around $6.1 billion in external obligations. The debt debate has also become part of President Sadyr Japarov’s broader economic narrative. In an interview with the Kabar national news agency published on October 8, 2025, Japarov said his government was continuing to borrow but argued that new loans were being directed toward commercial projects expected to repay their own financing rather than place an additional burden on the state budget. He also said Kyrgyzstan intended to repay its older debts by 2035. The International Monetary Fund said in its 2026 Article IV consultation that Kyrgyzstan had recorded strong economic growth for a fourth consecutive year, giving the authorities an opportunity to strengthen fiscal buffers and accelerate structural reforms. It also warned that the outlook remained exposed to significant downside risks. Kazakhstan: A Large External Debt, but a Different Risk Profile Kazakhstan accounts for the largest share of Central Asia’s external debt, but its headline figure can be misleading. Unlike several of its neighbors, the country’s external liabilities are dominated by corporate and intercompany borrowing rather...

Waste Management

Kazakhstan Waste-to-Energy Plants to Undergo Major Expansion

Kazakhstan is preparing a major expansion of waste-to-energy plants backed by Chinese investors, potentially giving waste incineration a central role in a system that still sends most municipal refuse to landfill. Astana plans to complete negotiations with China Tianying Inc. and submit an investment agreement for approval within two weeks. The proposed agreement would cover waste-treatment plants in at least three major cities, although the government has not disclosed their locations, cost, or construction timetable. The plans could add at least three facilities to Chinese-backed waste-to-energy plants already under construction in Almaty, Astana, and Shymkent. Together, the existing projects are designed to process 4,500 metric tons of municipal waste per day and generate 134 megawatts of electricity. If operated year-round at their stated capacity, they would handle around 1.64 million tons annually — equivalent to roughly one-third of the municipal waste Kazakhstan currently produces. The expansion follows years of limited progress in Kazakhstan’s waste sector. The country generates between 4.2 million and 4.8 million tons of municipal solid waste annually, while much of the material recorded as sorted or recycled ultimately ends up in landfill. In 2024, only 49,200 tons were processed into secondary raw materials, equivalent to around 1.1% of all municipal waste generated. Kazakhstan also has around 3,000 landfill sites, only about 20% of which meet environmental standards, according to the Ministry of Ecology. More than 1,000 illegal dumps were identified in 2024. The government is attempting to make waste-to-energy projects attractive to investors through investment agreements and a state-set electricity tariff of up to KZT55 ($0.12) per kilowatt-hour. The tariff provides operators with a revenue stream from the electricity produced by burning municipal waste, helping compensate for the weak economics of the wider waste-processing sector. Kazakhstan announced the plans after Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov met Cao Debiao, party secretary and president of China Tianying on July 16, 2026. The two discussed both large plants and smaller facilities capable of processing between 250 and 500 tons of waste per day, which could serve regional cities without enough waste to support the major complexes planned for Kazakhstan’s largest urban centers. According to the government, China Tianying has worked in waste treatment and new energy for more than 20 years and operates in more than 30 countries. Cao said the company handles around 4,000 tons of municipal waste per day through its existing facilities and plans to increase this capacity to 7,000 tons. Three Chinese-backed projects worth a combined KZT293.3 billion, or approximately $622 million, are already under construction. In Almaty, Junxin Environmental Protection is building a KZT145.5 billion ($308 million) facility designed to process 2,000 tons of municipal waste per day and generate 60 megawatts of electricity. In Astana, EAST HOPE is developing a plant capable of processing at least 1,500 tons daily and producing 50 megawatts. The project is valued at KZT94.4 billion, approximately $200 million. Shaanxi Construction Engineering Kazakhstan is building a smaller plant in Shymkent with daily capacity of 1,000 tons and generating capacity of 24...

Fuel Supply

Kyrgyzstan Fuel Crisis: Bishkek Relaxes Fuel Import Rules to Ease Supply Pressures

Kyrgyzstan has relaxed fuel import rules and extended restrictions on exports as it seeks to mitigate growing pressure on its domestic fuel market amid disruption to Russia’s refining sector. Under a July 13 resolution, the Kyrgyz Cabinet of Ministers suspended, until April 1, 2027, provisions of a 2019 government decree restricting the import of oil and petroleum products by road. The exemption had previously been due to expire on September 30, 2026. The change allows fuel to be delivered into Kyrgyzstan by road tanker, giving importers greater flexibility to obtain supplies through alternative routes. Other requirements governing fuel imports, including transportation safety rules and accompanying documentation, remain in force. The measure comes as Russia, the source of more than 90% of Kyrgyzstan’s imported petroleum products, has imposed temporary restrictions on gasoline exports after Ukrainian drone attacks reduced production at several Russian refineries. At the same time, the Cabinet amended the country’s export rules for petroleum products. The current export ban on crude oil, gasoline, diesel fuel, and other petroleum products transported by road or rail will now remain in effect until Kyrgyzstan’s domestic fuel demand is fully satisfied or until the EAEU’s common oil and petroleum products market becomes operational. According to the government, the changes are intended to stabilize the domestic fuel market and ensure adequate supplies for consumers. The latest measures add to a series of steps taken by Bishkek to address mounting fuel supply challenges. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan is also seeking to increase domestic production of the country’s most widely used AI-92 gasoline by upgrading surplus stocks of lower-octane AI-80 fuel. Earlier this month, the government also eased its temporary fuel price controls after shortages emerged. Emergency price regulation introduced on May 25 established benchmark import prices of $860 per metric ton for AI-92 gasoline, $940 for AI-95 gasoline, $950 for diesel fuel, and $575 for liquefied petroleum gas. However, under a separate July 7 resolution signed by Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Adylbek Kasymaliev, AI-95 gasoline was removed from the list of socially significant goods subject to state price regulation, and retail price caps were abolished. The government said the changes were necessary to restore uninterrupted fuel supplies after AI-95 gasoline temporarily disappeared from filling stations in Bishkek.

Electricity Shortages

Tajikistan Prepares for Another Winter Power Shortfall

Tajikistan is preparing for another autumn and winter in which electricity demand may outstrip supply. Network losses have fallen, and investment in hydropower continues, but officials say the seasonal imbalance between generation and consumption will persist. Mahmadumar Asozoda, chairman of state-owned power company Barki Tojik, said the imbalance would persist through the colder months. Asked whether electricity rationing would return, he did not rule it out. Tajikistan generates almost all of its electricity from hydropower, leaving supply tied to seasonal river flows. Output rises during the warmer months, when the country can meet domestic demand and export surplus electricity. In winter, river flows decline as electricity use increases for heating, creating a recurring shortfall. To cover part of the winter shortfall, Tajikistan plans to import electricity from Uzbekistan again. The two countries use a seasonal exchange: Uzbekistan supplies power in autumn and winter, and Tajikistan returns an equivalent volume during summer. Tajikistan imported 306 million kilowatt-hours (kWh) last winter, down from 350 million kWh a year earlier. Asozoda said the countries expect to sign a new agreement before the next autumn-winter season. Imports can ease the shortage, but they do not remove Tajikistan's dependence on hydropower or the winter drop in output. The seasonal arrangement with Uzbekistan gives Tajikistan access to power when domestic generation is lowest. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan has signed a 20-year agreement to buy electricity from Tajikistan. Deliveries are expected to depend on additional generating capacity at the Rogun Hydropower Plant. The Nurek Reservoir stood at 888.21 meters on July 13, but Energy and Water Resources Minister Daler Juma said Tajikistan was experiencing low water levels. The country has reduced electricity exports and is retaining more water in its reservoirs for winter. Losses in the electricity system fell during the first half of 2026. At Barki Tojik's generating facilities, losses were 0.32% of output, down 0.07 percentage points from a year earlier. Losses in high-voltage transmission networks fell to 2.96%, while distribution losses dropped from 17.93% to 12.42%. Barki Tojik generated 8.89 billion kWh during the period, 2.7 million kWh less than in the first half of 2025. Hydropower plants supplied 7.93 billion kWh, while thermal plants produced 964 million kWh. The utility also bought 2.7 billion kWh from independent producers in Tajikistan and abroad, with Sangtuda-1 supplying 1.48 billion kWh. Rogun and Sangtuda-2 supplied 667.2 million kWh and 474.2 million kWh, respectively. Demand continues to rise as Tajikistan's population grows and industrial production expands, President Emomali Rahmon said in December 2025. The World Bank expects Rogun to help meet domestic needs and reduce recurring winter cuts. Rahmon has said rationing should end in 2027, when the third generating unit is scheduled to enter service, although the World Bank projects full completion in 2033. For the coming winter, Tajikistan is conserving reservoir water and arranging imports from Uzbekistan, but Asozoda's comments leave open the possibility of renewed rationing.

Critical Minerals

Opinion: Could Vanadium Be Kazakhstan’s Next Breakout Critical Metals Story?

Vanadium is viewed as a critical mineral by the United States, the European Union, Russia, China and many other countries because of its importance to energy storage and industrial alloys. At the Astana Metals & Metallurgy (AMM) Congress, Ferro-Alloy Resources CEO Nicholas Bridgen discussed the company’s assets, strategy, and valuation with The Times of Central Asia, noting that the company appears undervalued amid supply chain disruptions and the rising strategic importance of vanadium. The discussion highlighted vanadium’s emerging demand-supply imbalance and efforts to better align market perception with fundamentals. Of the critical metals that will define the next half-century, vanadium has perhaps the strongest claim to indispensability: it hardens the steel in our infrastructure and defense systems, and it stores the energy that our grids will increasingly depend on. Yet the market has consistently failed to price that future in, and nowhere is that mispricing more visible than in the vanadium deposits of Kazakhstan. In 1941, with the Second World War raging, Soviet geologists fanned out across Central Asia looking for strategic minerals. Around 180 kilometers east of Almaty, in the foothills of the Tian Shan mountain range along the borders with China and Kyrgyzstan, they found tungsten at the Boguty deposit. At roughly the same time, they were delineating what would become the Northern Katpar and Upper Kairakty tungsten deposits. The geology was well understood, and the resource was real, but nothing happened for the better part of 75 years. The deposits sat idle not because tungsten was unimportant, but because there was no pressing reason for, first, the Soviet Union or later the West to develop them. That changed when the scale of China's dominance in critical metals became impossible to ignore. By the early 2020s, China was producing over 75% of the world’s tungsten output, alongside similarly dominant shares of rare earth elements and a range of other strategic minerals. This concentration of supply was not accidental. It was the product of decades of deliberate industrial policy, patient capital, and a willingness to operate at low margins long enough to drive out competitors. The Tungsten Lesson Chinese mining company Jiaxin International Resources Investment Ltd. moved in 2014 to acquire Boguty for an undisclosed sum, almost certainly a modest one. The deal further consolidated China’s grip on global tungsten supply. Jiaxin then spent approximately $300 million developing the deposit and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at a valuation in excess of $600 million. The investment thesis seemed straightforward enough at the time. In 2025, it looked positively prescient: China imposed export controls on tungsten, and key prices outside China more than doubled. According to the Financial Times, Jiaxin’s market capitalization stands at close to HKD 22.3 billion, equal to $2.84 billion, approximately 9.5 times the stated development expenditure. [caption id="attachment_52262" align="aligncenter" width="1432"] Image: Kaz Resources[/caption] Meanwhile, Skyline Builders Group Holding Ltd. and Cove Kaz Capital Group LLC (“Cove Kaz”) have moved to acquire the two other formerly dormant tungsten deposits in Kazakhstan, Northern Katpar and Upper Kairakty. On this...

Digital Infrastructure

Kazakhstan and China Sign Deals Worth Over $15 Billion During Tokayev’s Shanghai Visit

Kazakhstan and China signed more than 70 commercial agreements worth over $15 billion during President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s working visit to Shanghai on July 16. The package covers artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, transport, finance, agriculture, vehicle production, and other high-technology industries. The documents were exchanged after a roundtable with Chinese executives. Akorda did not publish a full project-by-project valuation, and the package includes both agreements and memoranda. The headline figure represents the announced value of the documents rather than money already invested or spent. AI and Industrial Projects Among the main documents was a strategic partnership agreement between Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development and Huawei Technologies. The Samruk-Kazyna sovereign wealth fund signed a separate agreement to acquire Huawei technology and equipment. Samruk-Kazyna, Freedom Holding, the Astana city administration, and Geely Auto Group also signed a memorandum on electric-vehicle infrastructure and the use of artificial intelligence in Kazakhstan’s automotive industry. Kazakhtelecom and China’s HV & Submarine Hengtong Group agreed on the basic principles for developing the Data Center Valley project in Ekibastuz. The planned one-gigawatt cluster is intended to combine data centers, cloud services, supercomputing facilities, AI laboratories, research institutions, training programs, and technology startups. Further agreements covered robotics and research. Qazbot Technologies signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Agibot PTE, while the Almaty city administration, NERO Group, and UBTECH Robotics agreed to develop artificial intelligence and robotics in the city. Qazaq AI Research University and the Shanghai Innovation Institute signed a cooperation memorandum. The industrial package includes an agreement between Allur Group and Li Auto to produce Li Auto vehicles in Kazakhstan. Astana Group and Chery Holding signed a technology licensing agreement for OMODA and JAECOO production at the Astana Motors Manufacturing Kazakhstan plant. Qarmet, the Development Bank of Kazakhstan, and a Chinese engineering company also agreed to cooperate on new coke oven batteries and a gas purification system. Transport and Logistics An investment agreement was signed for the first phase of a multifunctional terminal at the Port of Kuryk. Another document covers cooperation on two logistics parks at Khorgos-Eastern Gate, while Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Industry and Construction and NUCTECH agreed to work on inspection systems at border checkpoints and expand local production. Tokayev said around 85% of rail freight between China and Europe passes through Kazakhstan and that the country has invested more than $35 billion in transport and logistics infrastructure over the past 15 years. He also promoted the Smart Cargo platform, which is designed to combine customs, logistics, and commercial services in one digital system. The president also invited Chinese companies to invest in the extraction and deeper processing of critical minerals, agricultural technology, and the development of Alatau City. The government wants the new city to become a regional center for digital finance, asset tokenization, artificial intelligence, and advanced telecommunications. Tokayev said bilateral trade reached a record $49 billion in 2025, cumulative Chinese investment in Kazakhstan exceeded $30 billion, and more than 8,500 companies with Chinese participation operate in the country. Existing joint projects...