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Oil Licenses

Uzbekistan Confirms Cancellation of Saneg Oil Licenses

Uzbekistan has revoked some oil-field licenses held by Sanoat Energetika Guruhi (Saneg), a major Uzbek private oil and gas producer, after the company failed to develop deposits and meet licensing conditions. The move is another setback for the company, formerly known as Jizzakh Petroleum, following the collapse of its $100 million agreement to purchase the Fergana Oil Refinery. When the refinery sale was announced in 2022, Saneg was reported to account for approximately 80% of Uzbekistan's oil production and hold development rights to 103 oil and gas fields. Officials have not said how many licenses have been canceled, which fields are affected, or what impact the decision will have on the company's operations. Speaking at an October 8 press conference, Sohibjon Murodov, director of the State Assets Management Agency, said the affected deposits had not been developed and licensing conditions had not been met. He did not disclose when the licenses were canceled. The Ministry of Mining Industry and Geology is now preparing measures for the affected fields. Asked why Saneg had originally received development rights without competitive auctions, Murodov explained that under the previous system, the first applicant could obtain a license after paying the prescribed fees. Auctions for hydrocarbon licenses were introduced in 2023–2024. He stressed that the deposits themselves had remained state property. A Privatization Reversed The government transferred management of the Fergana refinery to Saneg, then operating as Jizzakh Petroleum, in 2020. In May 2022, it announced the $100 million sale, accompanied by a separate commitment to invest $380 million in modernization. The transaction was intended to address longstanding problems. Reporting at the time described shortages of raw materials and said the refinery had not undergone major modernization or reconstruction for two decades. Saneg's investment commitments covered improvements to fuel production and processing facilities. Despite the announced sale, the state still held 58.5% of the refinery in May 2026, while Saneg owned 41.5%. By June, the State Assets Management Agency was its sole owner, according to registry information reported by Interfax. Explaining the termination in October, Murodov said financial difficulties in the investor's other projects had prevented it from making purchase payments on time. The contract allowed termination if payments were three months overdue, he said. The agency consulted international legal advisers and notified Saneg before ending the agreement. Saneg had previously maintained that it had fulfilled its payment and investment obligations, according to Interfax's June report. However, the amount of the overdue payments remains unclear, as does how earlier payments and investments will be treated and how much modernization work was completed. State-Directed Debt Recovery The state had already intervened in January to address financial problems at Saneg, oilfield services company Eriell, and engineering contractor Enter Engineering. Uzbek reporting has linked all three businesses to businessman Bakhtiyor Fozilov. A January 22 government resolution recorded combined unpaid wages of approximately $131 million owed to 38,700 employees across the three companies, according to reporting by Spot in March. The government ordered the sale of non-core assets to...

Labor Migration

Kyrgyzstan Expands Foreign Worker Quotas While Citizens Work Abroad

Kyrgyzstan plans to allow up to 120,000 foreign nationals to work in the country in 2027, even as more than 700,000 of its own citizens have worked abroad this year. Although official estimates are lower than four years ago, the country remains heavily dependent on money sent home by migrant workers, particularly those in Russia. According to the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic, Kyrgyzstan received approximately $3.5 billion in transfers from abroad in 2025, more than 90% of which came from Russia. The Ministry of Labor, Social Security, and Migration reported that 736,600 citizens had worked abroad so far in 2026, compared with 798,400 in 2025. The largest group, more than 472,000 people, was reported to be in Russia in March. Approximately 70,000 were working in Kazakhstan, 60,000 in the United States, 35,000 in Turkey, and 20,000 in Germany. In 2022, the authorities estimated that 1.118 million Kyrgyz citizens were working abroad, including more than one million in Russia. However, the figures do not establish exactly how many people have returned home and how many have moved to other countries for work. Russia has tightened its migration requirements and stepped up enforcement of residency regulations. In a report covering the second half of 2025, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) found that 94% of emigrants surveyed had left to find employment or better economic opportunities. Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubaev discussed these changes in labor migration during a parliamentary committee meeting on October 13. According to Kulubaev, more Kyrgyz citizens are choosing Turkey and the U.S. for employment, while demand for workers from Kyrgyzstan remains strong in South Korea and Japan. He said representatives from some European countries had offered to accept workers from Kyrgyzstan on the condition that the country accommodate migrants from Afghanistan and African nations. Kulubaev did not disclose which countries had made the offer, saying only that Bishkek rejected the proposal. There has been no public confirmation of the arrangement from the European participants in the negotiations. Within Kyrgyzstan, the unemployment rate fell from 5.8% in 2020 to 3.2% in 2025. The decline coincided with growth in construction, trade, and services, although employment figures alone do not show how much wages have increased or how many former migrants have found jobs at home. During a recent visit to the Batken region, President Sadyr Japarov again urged citizens working abroad to return home. The initial quota for foreign nationals arriving to work in Kyrgyzstan for 2025 was 25,000 people. The limit was raised to 100,000 for 2026. Expanding the quota allows businesses to recruit more employees from abroad, particularly for construction, manufacturing, and other industries where employers face staffing needs. According to the Ministry of Labor, by December 2025, approximately 18,900 Chinese, 11,700 Bangladeshis, and 8,300 Pakistanis had received work permits. An IOM study conducted in the first half of 2025 found a substantial presence of workers from Uzbekistan, approximately 10,800 people. The largest numbers of foreign workers covered by the survey were in the Jalal-Abad region,...

Growth Forecasts

Central Asia Economic Growth Expected to Slow in 2027

After several years of rapid expansion, Central Asian economies are expected to lose some momentum. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts that regional economic growth will slow from 5.8% in 2026 to 5.3% in 2027. However, growth in manufacturing and construction will not necessarily translate into comparable increases in household incomes. The forecast appears in the EBRD’s September report. The bank’s Central Asia figures also include Mongolia, so the regional growth rate should not be interpreted as an average for the five Central Asian countries alone. The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) has published its own projections for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. They differ somewhat from the EBRD’s forecasts but also anticipate continued economic growth. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Maintain Strong Growth The EBRD expects the economies of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to grow by 7% in 2027, the highest rates projected for the five countries in the region. Kyrgyzstan has experienced a construction boom in recent years, driven by investment in roads, housing, and energy infrastructure. The service sector is also expanding. The country’s economy grew by 11.9% in the first half of 2026. However, rapid growth has been accompanied by rising food and fuel prices. The country's performance is closely tied to economic conditions in Russia, where a significant number of Kyrgyz migrant workers are employed and from which Kyrgyzstan imports the vast majority of its fuel. Changes in the Russian labor market can affect remittances and household spending in Kyrgyzstan. In Tajikistan, growth is supported by investment and exports, particularly precious metals and mineral resources. The economy expanded by 8.2% in the first half of 2026. Tajikistan also relies heavily on imported goods and equipment, with spending on imports exceeding export earnings. Remittances from migrant workers in Russia are an even more important source of household income for Tajiks than for their Kyrgyz neighbors, while rising fuel costs are putting additional pressure on family budgets. Kazakhstan Remains Dependent on Oil Exports For Central Asia’s largest economy, the EBRD forecasts growth of 4.5% in 2027, while the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development expects 5%. In 2026, Kazakhstan’s economy has been constrained by disruptions to oil production and exports. Problems arose at the Tengiz oil field and along the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) export route, through which a significant share of Kazakhstan’s oil reaches global markets via Russia. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s factories increased production. But even growth in industries outside the oil sector has yet to eliminate the country’s dependence on commodity exports. For international buyers, the reliability of supply routes is also important. Disruptions to the CPC can restrict Kazakhstan’s oil exports regardless of demand or global prices. The Times of Central Asia recently examined the challenges facing Kazakhstan’s oil logistics. Inflation is another concern. According to the EFSD, prices in Kazakhstan are expected to rise by approximately 9.5% by the end of 2026. This means economic expansion will not necessarily be accompanied by a noticeable improvement in household purchasing power. Uzbekistan’s Growth Driven by...

Railway Economics

Opinion: China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway: Turning Transit Into Local Benefits

At the eighth Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia and Azerbaijan on October 8, 2026, Azerbaijan joined the forum as a full member after three years of participation as a guest of honor. President Ilham Aliyev stated that “Transport is one of the primary areas of cooperation between Central Asia and Azerbaijan”. Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev called for comprehensive infrastructure along the routes, with logistics hubs and service centers supporting production facilities and industrial zones to generate economic activity around the transport corridors. Construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is among Uzbekistan’s transport priorities and is important for Kyrgyzstan, making this “integrated transport corridor development” approach particularly relevant. Construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway (also known as the Kashgar-Torugart-Makmal-Jalal-Abad-Andijan railway) has been underway since December 2024. Public discussion of the project focuses mainly on shorter routes linking China and Central Asia with the Middle East and Europe, and on the line’s design carrying capacity. However, growth in transit traffic does not in itself guarantee economic benefits for the Naryn and Jalal-Abad regions of Kyrgyzstan or the Andijan region of Uzbekistan. Local economic impact depends on whether freight services and tariff policy allow small shippers to use the railway’s stations. Border delays can limit those benefits, as can a lack of storage and processing infrastructure nearby. What the Project Involves The intergovernmental agreement on the implementation of the project was signed by China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan on June 6, 2024. The joint project company was registered in July 2024, the investment agreement was signed on December 20, 2024, and construction officially began on December 27, 2024, in Jalal-Abad. According to the Ministry of Transport of Uzbekistan, the total length of the line is 532.53 km; 20 stations are planned, including two border stations, one transshipment station, four intermediate stations, and 13 passing loops. The Makmal transshipment station will be the transfer point between China’s 1,435 mm track gauge and the 1,520 mm gauge used in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. From Torugart to Makmal, the 165.5 km section will use the Chinese gauge. The 146.26 km section from Makmal to Jalal-Abad will use the wider gauge, connecting to the existing network toward Andijan. At Makmal, containers will be sorted and transferred between trains. Wagons can instead have their wheel assemblies changed to run on the other gauge. Freight trains will be assembled or split up at the station, which will also have facilities to weigh wagons and cargo. The parties estimate the cost of the project at USD 4.7 billion. Under the loan agreement signed on December 16, 2025, about USD 2.3 billion is provided by a syndicate of Chinese banks as a 35-year loan to the project company. Another USD 2.3 billion or so forms the project company’s charter capital. China holds 51% of the shares, while Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan each hold 24.5%. As of October 2026, construction is underway along the entire length of the route. In September 2026, the project company reported the completion of the first tunnel...

AI Training

Women in Tech Uzbekistan Forum Highlights Growing Demand for AI Skills

Uzbekistan is attracting foreign technology companies, expanding IT education, and training young people to work with artificial intelligence. But employers’ needs are changing faster than educational programs can adapt. Just a few years ago, companies were looking for programmers, then cloud technology specialists. Now they need developers capable of building AI systems and autonomous digital agents. Against this backdrop, discussions in Tashkent are focusing on how to increase women’s participation in the technology industry and enable them not only to learn new tools but also to develop their own products. These issues took center stage at the Women in Tech Leadership Forum, held on October 13 at Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Digital Technologies. The event brought together approximately 300 representatives of government agencies, international organizations, technology companies, and the business community. It was organized by the ministry and Women in Tech Uzbekistan, the national chapter of an international organization working to expand women’s participation in technology. [caption id="attachment_58421" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] Kamola Sobirova, an adviser to Uzbekistan’s Minister of Digital Technologies[/caption] Employers Need More Than Programmers Kamola Sobirova, an adviser to Uzbekistan’s Minister of Digital Technologies, explained in an exclusive interview with The Times of Central Asia how international companies’ requirements for local specialists have changed. “A few years ago, there was high demand for programmers. A year or two later, companies started asking us for cloud technology specialists. Then artificial intelligence emerged, and companies needed AI architects and prompt engineers,” Sobirova said. According to Sobirova, employers are now looking for specialists who can develop AI agents – software systems capable of independently carrying out sequences of tasks using artificial intelligence. “We cannot afford to stand still because technology continues to evolve. We must train specialists with up-to-date skills and create the right conditions for them,” she said. Uzbekistan previously ran the One Million Uzbek Coders program and has since launched the Five Million AI Leaders initiative. These programs are designed to provide large-scale training in digital skills, including programming and working with artificial intelligence. AI and the future of women’s work The question of whether AI will eliminate jobs was also raised during the interview. Sobirova rejected the idea that the main effect of AI would simply be widespread job losses. “There is a trend that everyone thinks AI will take over many professions and replace them, or that artificial intelligence has arrived and we will lose our jobs, but it is not like that,” she said. “Artificial intelligence will take the jobs of people who do not have artificial intelligence skills.” She argued that AI should increasingly be viewed as a tool that allows people to work more efficiently rather than simply as a replacement for workers. “Life has become much faster, and in this process artificial intelligence can help us become full users of AI and optimize our work,” Sobirova said. She also said the same principle applies to journalism and other media-related work, where AI can be used to support different parts of the workflow. “Coursera [an online...

Economic Growth

Kazakhstan Economic Growth Hits 4.2% Despite Decline in Oil Production

Kazakhstan’s economy grew by 4.2% in the first nine months of 2026, despite an 8.3% drop in oil production. Growth in construction, manufacturing, transportation, and trade helped offset the decline in the country's main export industry, although real household incomes have barely risen. According to figures presented on October 13 by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin, Kazakhstan produced 69.4 million metric tons of oil between January and September. GDP growth accelerated slightly from 4.1% in the first eight months of the year. Kazakhstan is Central Asia’s largest economy and a significant supplier of oil to the global market. Most of its oil exports pass through Russia, including via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline system to a terminal on the Black Sea. Disruptions along these routes can force producers to cut output. The Times of Central Asia previously examined why even high global oil prices do not always translate into the expected revenues for Kazakhstan. According to government estimates, the non-resource sector expanded by 5.4%. Manufacturing, construction, transportation, and trade accounted for more than three-quarters of GDP growth. Manufacturing output rose by 8.6%, with machinery production increasing by 22.8%. Over the nine-month period, automobile production increased by nearly 30%, while electrical equipment output rose by approximately 21%. Production of fabricated metal products, food, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals also increased. Investment in fixed assets, including buildings and equipment, rose by 7% between January and September, reaching 16.1 trillion tenge (approximately $35.7 billion). Private investment accounted for 85.7% of the total and increased by 18.2%, with particularly strong growth in manufacturing and construction. At the same time, the strengthening of the tenge, Kazakhstan’s national currency, has put pressure on exporters when dollar-denominated earnings are converted into local currency. Consumer lending has also slowed: annual growth in consumer loans fell from 26.4% in August 2025 to 10.4% in August 2026. Annual inflation stood at 9.3% in September, down from 9.8% in August. Prices are still rising, although somewhat more slowly. In the second quarter, real household incomes per person, adjusted for inflation, grew by just 0.7% compared with the same period last year, following an increase of just 0.1% in the first quarter.