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U.S., Uzbek Think Tanks Agree to Work Together

Two prominent research centers in Uzbekistan and the United States plan to collaborate on joint projects. The Washington-based Caspian Policy Center and Uzbekistan’s state-backed Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies signed a “strategic partnership agreement” and look forward to “fruitful joint work,” Caspian Policy Center CEO Efgan Nifti said on X. Furqat Sidiqov, Uzbekistan’s ambassador to the U.S., said the agreement would help to foster ties between the two countries through research and dialogue. Founded in 2016, the nonprofit Caspian Policy Center focuses on economic, political, energy and security issues in the Caspian region. The Uzbek institute started in 1992 under a presidential decree. Last week, Eldor Aripov, director of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies, met leaders of top research groups in Washington. Among the topics they discussed were economic and other reforms in Uzbekistan that open “great opportunities for expanding the presence of American business in the Uzbek market,” the institute said. The leaders also discussed U.S. foreign policy priorities, including in Central Asia, and noted “successful cooperation” in the so-called C5+1 talks format that includes Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and the United States, according to the institute. It said the format helped to coordinate efforts “to strengthen regional trade, develop transport and energy links, combat environmental challenges, and counter extremism.”

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Uzbekistan Welcomes 6.5 Million Tourists in 10 Months of 2024, With China Leading Growth Outside CIS

Uzbekistan’s tourism industry is thriving, with 6.5 million foreign visitors from January to October 2024, fueled by a 17.2% year-on-year increase, or 951,300 more visitors compared to the same period last year. Among these tourists, 57,700 were from China, marking a 63.1% rise and making China the leading source of visitors outside the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). China's interest in landlocked Uzbekistan comes as no surprise. Rich in natural resources and brimming with untapped potential, Uzbekistan stands as a promising opportunity for growth and prosperity when strategic investments are managed effectively. For instance, China continues to dominate Uzbekistan’s trade scene, accounting for 18.8% of the country's total foreign trade turnover as of October 2024. Bilateral trade between the two nations reached $10.2bn, with Uzbekistan exporting $1.7bn worth of goods to China and importing $8.5bn in return. While this was a slight dip from the $10.8bn in 2023, China has maintained its position as Uzbekistan’s largest trade partner since 2020, thanks in part to strategic agreements like the Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) and the Agreement on Avoidance of Double Taxation (DTA). Additionally, China’s investment footprint in Uzbekistan is hard to miss. By the end of 2022, China had invested a total of $4.5bn, with over 2,000 Chinese enterprises operating in the country as of January 1, 2024. These businesses span a wide range of sectors, from oil and gas exploration to infrastructure development, automotive assembly, agriculture, and textiles. Projects include the Pengsheng Industrial Park, which focuses on construction materials and modern agriculture with a $129mn investment, and the Anjiyan Textile Park, which specializes in textile production, backed by more than $64mn. The Luoyang-Bukhara Agricultural Cooperation Zone takes this partnership to the next level, blending agricultural cultivation with industrial activities for a dynamic collaboration. Agriculture has blossomed as a key area of collaboration between Uzbekistan and China in recent years. Uzbek exports, such as cherries, apricots, and dried fruits are hitting the sweet spot in China, while Chinese investments in agri-tech are giving Uzbekistan’s productivity and export game a major boost. When it comes to green energy, Uzbekistan’s renewable ambitions are getting a powerful push from Chinese know-how. A standout project, a 1 GW solar power plant under the Belt and Road Initiative, is a shining example of both nations’ dedication to a greener, more sustainable future. In addition, on December 5, Uzbekistan's Uzatom and China National Nuclear Corporation Overseas (CNOS) signed a cooperation agreement, setting the stage for small nuclear power plants and improved uranium processing in Uzbekistan. This follows earlier talks about tapping into China's expertise to enhance the country’s nuclear energy capabilities. The digital transformation of Uzbekistan is another exciting frontier of opportunity. With plans to expand its digital infrastructure, Chinese companies are stepping in with cutting-edge technologies like 5G networks and e-commerce platforms. These innovations are set to supercharge Uzbekistan’s digital economy, making it more efficient and connected than ever before. It’s a win-win that promises to drive growth and elevate the country’s technological landscape. Two major...

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Central Asia, a Possible Winner in Regional Reshuffle Over Syria

There has been talk about who’s up and who’s down since the Syrian rebel offensive that ousted President Bashar Assad this month. Central Asia might end up as a winner on the geopolitical scorecard, according to one theory. For Syrians, the future depends on whether the country can stabilize under a new government or is headed for fresh conflict. But here’s the international fallout so far: Russia, Iran and the Hezbollah group in Lebanon, key backers of Assad during years of civil war, lost power and influence in the region. Turkey, which supported some rebel groups, has more clout in Syria, where it opposes Syrian Kurdish forces. Israel has benefited because its enemy Hezbollah has lost a supply route through Syria from patron Iran, though it says it is striking Syrian military sites because threats remain. There could be economic gains for Central Asia, far from the maneuvers on the ground in Syria. Some analysts believe an ascendant Turkey will call in some favors from Russia, which along with Iran is on the backfoot. One thing that Turkey and Central Asian trading partners really want is the opening of a land route, the so-called Zanzegur corridor, in the South Caucasus, and Russia can possibly help to make that happen. The 43-kilometer corridor, which is expected to make land trade between East Asia and Europe more efficient, would connect Azerbaijan with its enclave of Nakhchivan, passing through Armenia before joining with Turkey and European markets beyond. The transport connection is supposed to open under a 2020 cease-fire agreement following Azerbaijan’s military success against Armenia, with Russia as a security guarantor. But Zanzegur remains contentious because of Armenian concerns over sovereignty and a final peace deal is yet to be signed. Now, the theory goes, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could push Russian President Vladimir Putin for an assist on Zanzegur in exchange for apparently helping Russia evacuate troops from Syria, and for possibly helping Moscow form a relationship with the new Syrian leadership. “What will Turkey demand from Russia? Perhaps lighter terms for the supply of key energy supplies now at threat from US sanctions,” economist Timothy Ash wrote in an analysis. “Russian agreement also perhaps over Azeri and Turkish access to Nakhichevan [through] the Zangezur corridor and on to Central Asia? Putin now owes Erdogan. He will collect.” Ahmad Vakhshiteh, a senior lecturer at RUDN University in Moscow, made a similar argument, saying in an interview with German media outlet DW that Turkey could use Syria leverage to advance wider geopolitical goals such as the Zanzegur corridor. Under the 2020 cease-fire deal, Russian border guards would control transport on the corridor, whose opening could also benefit Russia´s trade connections. But Russian influence has decreased as Armenia has all but withdrawn from a regional, Russian-led security pact and increasingly looks for Western partnerships. There has also been some discussion of bypassing Armenia and building an adjacent land corridor through Iranian territory, though Iran’s own trade and security interests are big factors. ...

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British Think Tank: Kazakhstan is a Key Strategic Partner for the UK

On December 10, the British think tank the Henry Jackson Society presented its research report, “Understanding Kazakhstan’s Strategic Importance: A Middle Power Partner for the UK in Central Asia,” in the UK Parliament. The event was attended by members of both houses of the British Parliament and featured speeches by prominent figures, including Nusrat Ghani MP, Principal Deputy Speaker of the House of Commons; Magzhan Ilyassov, Ambassador of Kazakhstan to the United Kingdom; Darren Spinck, the report’s author and associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society; Ekaterina Miroshnik, Director for Eurasia Infrastructure at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD); and Enzo Satkuru-Granzella, business analyst at the UK Critical Minerals Association. Exploring Kazakhstan’s Strategic Role Darren Spinck emphasized that the report examines Kazakhstan’s evolving role as a middle power on the international stage, highlighting its advancements in political reforms and sustainable economic development. It also explores opportunities for enhancing trade and investment between the UK and Kazakhstan, particularly in critical minerals and transit-transport routes. The report includes recommendations for the British Government and Parliament to strengthen this partnership. Nusrat Ghani MP shared her personal efforts to deepen UK-Kazakh relations during her time as Business and Trade Minister (2022–2024) and Minister of State at the Foreign Office (2024). She expressed confidence that the report would provide members of Parliament with valuable insights into Kazakhstan’s importance as a global actor and as a key partner for the UK in Central Asia. Kazakhstan’s Global Diplomacy and Strategic Partnerships Ambassador Magzhan Ilyassov highlighted Kazakhstan’s balanced, multi-vector foreign policy, which aims to safeguard national interests while promoting global security and dialogue. He provided updates on Kazakhstan’s international initiatives, including efforts on nuclear non-proliferation, the proposal to establish an International Agency for Biological Safety (IABS), and the creation of a UN Regional Hub for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Central Asia and Afghanistan. Ekaterina Miroshnik from the EBRD underscored Kazakhstan’s role in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor. This trade route connects China with Europe and strengthens economic ties between Europe, Central Asia, and China. She highlighted the EBRD’s involvement in Middle Corridor projects, which are key to improving regional trade infrastructure. Enzo Satkuru-Granzella of the UK Critical Minerals Association noted Kazakhstan’s vast potential to contribute to the global supply chain of critical minerals. With its rich resource base, well-developed infrastructure, and skilled workforce, Kazakhstan is poised for long-term collaboration. He pointed to the Roadmap on critical minerals, signed between Kazakhstan and the UK in March 2024, as a solid foundation for mutual cooperation. Strengthening Bilateral Relations Participants at the event acknowledged Kazakhstan’s increasing geostrategic importance as a middle power and explored new avenues for strengthening ties between the two nations. A significant milestone in the bilateral relationship was the Strategic Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, signed by Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu and the UK’s David Cameron in Astana on April 24, 2024. Great Britain remains one of Kazakhstan’s top foreign investors. Since 2005, the UK has invested...

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U.S. Sanctions on Gazprombank Put Uzbekistan’s $4.8 Billion Copper Ambitions at Risk

Uzbekistan faces a significant economic challenge as U.S. sanctions on Russia’s Gazprombank disrupt the $4.8 billion Yoshlik mine expansion project. The project, managed by state-owned Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Combine (MMC), is critical to Uzbekistan’s plan to nearly double its copper production by 2026, according to The Diplomat. However, with Gazprombank now excluded from the international payments system, the project’s financing is at risk. The Russian Government directly owns 36.44% of Gazprombank's capital. Financing Challenges The Yoshlik mine expansion aims to increase copper output by 78% and gold production by 50%, making it a cornerstone of Uzbekistan’s economic development strategy. However, Almalyk MMC’s reliance on Gazprombank leaves it vulnerable to delays and potential secondary sanctions. This situation exacerbated earlier difficulties after U.S. and EU sanctions in 2022 suspended an $800 million tranche from Russian development bank VEB.RF, another key financial backer. Almalyk MMC must now urgently secure alternative financing to keep the project on track. Russia’s Role in Uzbekistan’s Economy Russia remains Uzbekistan’s largest trading partner, and remittances from Uzbek workers in Russia account for 18% of Uzbekistan’s GDP. Russia’s involvement in the Yoshlik project began in 2021 when Gazprombank and VEB.RF pledged $2 billion to finance mining equipment purchases. Impact on European and British Partners The Yoshlik project also involves significant participation from European and British firms: Germany: Engineering firms such as Thyssenkrupp have supplied critical equipment. Germany’s KfW IPEX-Bank recently arranged $2.55 billion in financing for the project. However, U.S. sanctions on Gazprombank could create legal and logistical hurdles, putting pressure on Germany’s government to reassess its support for exports to Uzbekistan. United Kingdom: The UK has taken a complex position. While it sanctioned Gazprombank in 2014, British firms, including Weir Group, remain involved in the project. In 2024, the U.K.’s export credit agency guaranteed a refinancing deal through Spain’s Santander Bank, reflecting the mine’s importance to British exporters. As reported by TCA, earlier this week, the UK Export Finance (UKEF) guaranteed a €12.6 million ($13.25 million) loan to the Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Complex to refinance the purchase of fully automated vehicles. Urgency for Alternative Financing For Uzbekistan, securing alternative sources of funding is critical. Almalyk MMC must navigate a challenging sanctions landscape while keeping the Yoshlik project on schedule. Failure to do so could not only isolate the company but also hinder Uzbekistan’s broader economic goals, particularly its ambitions to expand its mining sector and boost foreign investment.

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West Monitors Syria for Plans of Jihadis, Some From Central Asia

Some counterterrorism experts in the West are assessing whether the ouster of Bashar Assad´s regime in Syria will lead to a recalibration of the Islamic militant groups that opposed him, some of which include especially hardline recruits from Central Asia. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian group that led an offensive into Aleppo and Damascus and forced Assad to flee in a span of two weeks, is trying to turn to governance with a relatively moderate image even though it was associated with Al-Qaeda earlier in the Syrian civil war and is labeled a terrorist organization on some Western lists. It’s too early to say whether HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani will stick to a message of tolerance or can make it work in a fractured country with gutted institutions, but there are signs that some jihadis object to his message of inclusiveness. “Many of them are Central Asians and they may look to go somewhere else. I think we’re inevitably going to see a certain amount of splintering from what happens in Syria,” said Colin Clarke, a terrorism researcher and author of After the Caliphate. At an Atlantic Council event in Washington on Wednesday, Clarke said there is an “interplay” between religious extremism in Afghanistan and Syria, and that a number of groups with Central Asian members have those connections. Clarke said he will be watching to see whether the connections grow following Assad’s abrupt exit after more than two decades in power. Some estimates put the number of Islamic militants who have traveled from Central Asia to Syria and Iraq over the years at around several thousand, though the figures vary and are difficult to confirm. Many joined the Islamic State group, which was defeated in Iraq and is much diminished in Syria although the U.S. recently carried out air strikes to prevent any resurgence by the group amid Syria’s current upheaval. One jihadist group with Central Asia links that collaborated with HTS in the successful campaign against Assad is Katibat al Tawhid wal Jihad, designated a terror group by the U.S. State Department in 2022. The group carried out a Saint Petersburg, Russia metro attack in 2017 that killed 14 passengers and injured 50 others, as well as a suicide car bombing of the Chinese embassy in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan in 2016 that injured three people, according to the U.S. Katibat al Tawhid wal Jihad is comprised mainly of Uzbek, Tajik and Kyrgyz combatants, according to Daniele Garofalo Monitoring, which traces jihadist propaganda and military activity. There are an estimated 400-500 fighters in the group. Another HTS ally is Katibat Mujaheddin Ghuroba Division, which has between 200 and 400 fighters, according to the Garofalo site. Many are Uzbeks, Tajiks and Uyghurs, though the group also has Arab militants. There is also Jaysh al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar, which dates to the early stages of the Syrian civil war that began in 2011. The jihadist group is believed to have 400-500 fighters, mostly Chechens, Tajiks, Dagestanis, Azerbaijanis, Kazakhs and Ukrainians, as well as...