International Affairs - The Times Of Central Asia

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CIS

Putin in Tajikistan for CIS Summit Amid Migration Tensions

When President Vladimir Putin arrives in Dushanbe on 8 October for his first state visit, Tajikistan will briefly become the focal point of regional diplomacy. Currently holding the rotating chair of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Dushanbe is preparing to host both the CIS Heads of State Council and the second Russia–Central Asia summit. For Moscow, Central Asia has remained a priority since the invasion of Ukraine, and the visit highlights what is at stake for both Russia and its host. Tajikistan depends heavily on Russia for security, trade, and employment opportunities for its citizens, but relations have been tested by the aftermath of the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack, which exposed the fragility of migration-driven economics and the risk of renewed extremism. An Old Relationship Tested by New Tensions Russia and Tajikistan have been closely entwined since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin has already made twelve trips to Tajikistan since taking office, and this will be his first with state‑visit status. Security cooperation remains the backbone of the relationship. Russia’s 201st military base in Tajikistan - formerly the 201st motor rifle division and now Moscow’s largest overseas facility - has long been billed as a shield along the Afghan frontier; the two sides continue to coordinate through the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization), and within the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) framework. Trade between the two nations has expanded despite sanctions headwinds. On the eve of the visit, presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said bilateral turnover rose by more than 17 % in the first seven months of 2025, and reached about US$1.5 billion in 2024. Russia accounts for over 22 % of Tajikistan’s foreign trade. Meanwhile, more than 1.2 million Tajik citizens work in Russia, making up about 16 % of all foreign workers there. They remitted US$1.8 billion back home last year, roughly 17 % of Tajikistan’s GDP. This symbiosis means that the two leaders routinely discuss labor migration and social issues alongside security and trade. Yet the relationship has been strained by a wave of xenophobia following the Crocus City Hall attack, which killed 145 people, which the Russian authorities accused militants from Tajikistan of perpetrating. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, following the arrest of four Tajik suspects, Central Asian migrants in Russia have faced arson attacks, beatings, and boycotts of their businesses. Russian law enforcement has launched aggressive street inspections and created special units to check hostels and businesses frequented by Central Asians. Even long‑time Tajik residents with Russian citizenship have reported menacing phone calls and threats. In the wake of the attack, diaspora leaders urged compatriots not to leave their homes, and the Tajik interior ministry publicly rebutted Russian media reports, stating that three of the four suspects named were not involved. Those pressures hit a country heavily reliant on remittances. The World Bank’s 2025 update estimates that money sent home by migrants accounted for 49 % of Tajikistan’s GDP in 2024. Since the start of the Ukraine war, Russian politicians and media have become increasingly hostile toward Central Asian migrants, leading Moscow to deactivate all foreign‑owned SIM cards and...

Organization of Turkic States

Leaders of Turkic States Meet in Azerbaijan

The 12th Summit of the Heads of State of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) convened in Gabala, Azerbaijan, bringing together leaders from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Hungary, Turkmenistan, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Discussions focused on regional stability, economic integration, and strengthening fraternal ties among Turkic nations. Aliyev: The OTS Is Becoming a Major Geopolitical Center Opening the summit, Azerbajani President Ilham Aliyev welcomed participants to Gabala and thanked Kyrgyzstan for its prior chairmanship. “Today, the Organization of Turkic States is not merely a platform for cooperation; it is forming as one of the serious geopolitical centers,” Aliyev said. He announced Azerbaijan’s $2 million contribution to support OTS activities and emphasized shared historical roots and cultural values across Turkic nations. Addressing peace and security, Aliyev added, “In light of modern geopolitical challenges, it is crucial that Turkic states act as a unified center of power,” and proposed hosting joint military exercises of OTS member states in 2026. South Caucasus Peace and Economic Connectivity Aliyev highlighted the recent peace agreement initialed between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Washington as a breakthrough for the South Caucasus: “This will turn the region into a space of peace.” He also noted Azerbaijan’s growing role in regional logistics: “Since 2022, cargo volumes along the Middle Corridor have increased by nearly 90%. Our Caspian fleet, the Alat Port, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, and nine international airports have made Azerbaijan a leading transport hub.” He stressed the importance of the Zangezur Corridor, intended to connect Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan and Central Asia, and cited Azerbaijan’s energy diversification, exporting natural gas to 14 countries and a projected 40% share of renewables in its energy mix by 2030. Unity and Vision from the Turkic Leaders Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov praised the summit location and the symbolic timing: “Gabala is an ancient city with a 2,000-year history, and it is no coincidence we gathered here.” He called the joint peace declaration with Armenia a historic step toward trust in the South Caucasus. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev echoed support: “This historic document has ended a conflict that had remained unresolved for more than 30 years.” He quoted poet Bakhtiyar Vagabzade: “A Turk has no right to be hostile to another Turk.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called for developing a “Common Turkic Language Model” to protect cultural heritage and advance artificial intelligence research. “We once again demonstrate that the Turkic states, driven by solidarity, mutual respect, and brotherhood, are confidently looking to the future,” he said. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev credited Aliyev’s leadership: “This peace declaration became possible thanks to your political will and is a common achievement of the Turkic world.” Turkmenistan and Hungary on Brotherhood and Energy Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, Chairman of Turkmenistan’s Halk Maslahaty, described the OTS as a unifying platform for brotherly nations with shared culture and language, committed to promoting cooperation at regional and international levels. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán underscored Azerbaijan’s value to Europe: “Your incredible achievements, economic development, and investments in renewable energy...

Uzbek-U.S. Relations

Washington and Tashkent Push for More Trade and Investment

Speaking at the United Nations in New York on September 23, President Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan made it clear that he no longer adheres to his predecessors’ post-Soviet policies of isolation and ‘go-it-alone’ economic development strategy - those days are over. Uzbekistan today - or so the evidence suggests - is more open for business than at any time in its history, with the caveat that deals must be win-win, strategic, fair, and reciprocal. Though it’s unclear what that precisely entails, both Washington and Tashkent are clearly working to accelerate capital and trade flows. “[Our] top-priority goal”, Mirziyoyev said at the United Nations, “is to fundamentally transform the lives of each and every family and citizen in our country, to enhance human dignity and wellbeing.” These are not mere words, but stand at the core of Uzbekistan’s efforts to build a new nation on the back of its - until recently - entirely archaic Soviet era socio-economic institutional structures and often ossified old ways of thinking. With this in mind, the main event of Mirziyoyev’s recent New York visit - besides his meeting with President Trump - was the high-level US-Uzbekistan investment roundtable with senior executives of major U.S. corporations and financial institutions. The roundtable was more than just symbolic. Its strong turnout underscored both the U.S. and Uzbek commitment to advancing joint initiatives in key sectors, including strategic minerals, transport infrastructure, energy, and smart agriculture. Top executives from Boeing, Citigroup, BNY Mellon, NASDAQ, Nvidia, Mastercard, Visa, General Motors, Jefferies, Oppenheimer, Cleveland Clinic, Cargill, and other U.S. corporations descended on the meetings in force, clearly eager to court the president and his team. [caption id="attachment_37146" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: president.uz[/caption] At their face-to-face meeting, President Trump personally congratulated Mirziyoyev on the landmark $8 billion Boeing-Uzbekistan Airways deal, projected to generate over 35,000 U.S. jobs – that in itself is not news. Rather, the NY business roundtable appears to have signaled that the American business community is more than just sniffing around for deals. Undoubtedly, a key force behind this growing interest is Washington’s expanding engagement with Uzbekistan. Highlighting Washington’s strategic swing towards Uzbekistan, Mirziyoyev, Sergio Gor, U.S. Special Envoy for South and Central Asian Affairs, and William Kimmitt, Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade, attended the signing ceremony of bilateral agreements, which ranged from transport, logistics and AI to mining, healthcare, and financial services. Their presence helped move discussions from initial interest to serious dealmaking. To dispel investor uncertainty related to sovereign risk and other hidden booby traps often embedded in cross-border investment agreements, Mirziyoyev declared: “I assure you, I personally guarantee the success of U.S. companies operating in Uzbekistan. At the Ministry of Investments, a dedicated Deputy Minister for U.S. Affairs has been appointed. He will accompany you 24/7.” While this makes plain Uzbekistan’s shift from aid recipient to active economic player, it’s also an attempt to shore up “investor butterflies” who are wary of corruption and shaky legal remedies in the event of contract disputes. Moreover, recognizing that companies...

Afghanistan

Former Afghan Deputy Speaker “Abbas Dollar” Arrested in Tashkent

Abbas Ibrahimzada, a former deputy speaker of Afghanistan’s parliament, was arrested in Tashkent on September 24, according to sources cited by Amu. Despite reportedly posting bail of more than $350,000, he has remained in custody for over a week. His arrest follows multiple complaints filed by business rivals. Local sources indicate that Ibrahimzada has invested more than $50 million in Uzbekistan over the past four years, with ventures spanning commercial transport and flour production. His detention has raised concerns about potential disruptions to his extensive business interests. Ibrahimzada has not publicly commented on the case. A prominent representative from Balkh province during the 16th term of Afghanistan’s parliament, Ibrahimzada is widely known by the nickname “Abbas Dollar”, a nod to his reputation as one of Afghanistan’s wealthiest private investors. In addition to his political career, Ibrahimzada has long been active in business. According to Afghan-Bios, he heads the Ibrahimzada Group, which operates across multiple sectors, including energy, infrastructure, and education. His arrest in Uzbekistan adds a new layer of complexity to his cross-border business profile, drawing attention to the intersection of political and commercial interests in Central Asia. The case also highlights the legal uncertainties foreign investors may encounter in the region. Authorities have not released an official statement regarding the specific charges or the status of his business operations in Uzbekistan.

Organization of Turkic States

Gabala 2025: What the Turkic World Will Discuss Amid Global Turbulence

On October 7, leaders of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) will gather in Gabala, Azerbaijan, for the 12th summit under the theme “Regional Peace and Security.” At first glance, it may look like another routine engagement. Yet against the backdrop of overlapping global crises, the forum is increasingly a test of the OTS’s maturity and relevance. The summit unfolds amid a turbulent international landscape. Afghanistan continues to cast a shadow over Central Asia: economic volatility, migration risks, and the activity of extremist groups remain sources of concern for OTS members. The ongoing war in Ukraine, meanwhile, is reshaping Eurasian transit routes, placing the bloc’s states in delicate positions between East and West. At the same time, violence in the Middle East is adding to the pressures on Turkey’s already complex foreign policy environment. The Middle Corridor at the Center A key theme in Gabala will be the advancement of the Middle Corridor, formally known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. This east–west route connects China with Europe via Kazakhstan, the Caspian ports of Aktau and Kuryk, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. Investments are moving forward across the chain: Kazakhstan is expanding port and rail capacity, Azerbaijan is modernizing the Port of Baku in Alat, Georgia is upgrading its railway hubs, and Turkey is reinforcing the Baku–Kars line. Once a logistical project, the corridor is evolving into a strategic framework that ties together economic, environmental, and security considerations. Customs harmonization, digital tracking systems, and sustainability standards are now discussed as much as cargo volumes. Security, Coordination, and Soft Power Security will also be on the table, though framed in practical rather than military terms. Issues such as counter-terrorism cooperation, cyber resilience, disaster response, and the safety of emerging transit corridors are likely to feature. In this sense, security is increasingly seen as the foundation for trade and investment rather than a standalone agenda. Beyond infrastructure, OTS continues to develop soft power tools. Educational exchanges, cultural cooperation, green energy initiatives, and water management projects are part of efforts to build intra-regional trust. The recently inaugurated UN Regional Center for the SDGs in Almaty provides another anchor, aligning the Turkic bloc with global sustainability frameworks. A Turning Point for the Turkic Council? Founded in 2009 primarily as a cultural and humanitarian forum, the OTS is now edging toward a broader role. By coordinating infrastructure projects, harmonizing regulations, and cautiously addressing security concerns, it is positioning itself as a relevant player in Eurasian affairs. Much will depend on whether Gabala produces more than communiqués. Concrete steps on the Middle Corridor, digital customs corridors, joint water initiatives, or disaster coordination could demonstrate that the OTS is maturing into a platform for practical solutions. While major breakthroughs are unlikely, even incremental progress would signal that the Turkic Council is becoming a pillar of regional stability and integration.

Air Transport

Uzbekistan Airways Refutes Near-Collision Reports in Russian Airspace

Uzbekistan Airways has denied claims that one of its aircraft was involved in a near-collision with a private jet in Russian airspace, describing the reports inaccurate and misleading. The airline issued a statement in response to tabloid coverage in Russia alleging a serious aviation incident near Moscow’s Vnukovo International Airport. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the incident allegedly occurred shortly after midnight on September 29 near Serpukhov, south of Moscow. Early accounts indicated that an Uzbekistan Airways Airbus A320 en route from Samarkand and an Embraer Legacy 650 business jet flying from Bodrum came within three kilometers horizontally and 700 feet vertically of each other—below international safety thresholds—due to a miscommunication over altitude clearance. Uzbekistan Airways has firmly rejected this version of events. In a statement from its press service, the airline stressed that its crew fully complied with all instructions from Moscow air traffic control and did not breach any flight regulations. “All altitude levels were maintained in accordance with the established rules and procedures, and the required separation between aircraft was preserved,” the statement read. The airline also clarified that the flight in question occurred on September 28, not September 29 as initially reported. It added that the aircraft’s onboard safety systems did not issue any alerts, and Moscow’s air traffic controllers made no objections or complaints about the crew’s actions. Uzbekistan Airways criticized several Russian media outlets for publishing what it described as unverified information, which was later reprinted by some Uzbek outlets without proper verification. “This created a misleading impression among readers,” the airline said. Reaffirming its commitment to international aviation standards, the company stated that flight safety remains its highest priority and that all crews operate in strict compliance with air traffic control instructions.