Kazakhstan - The Times Of Central Asia

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Macroeconomic Review

EDB Forecasts Strong Economic Growth in 2026 for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

On December 18, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) published its Macroeconomic Outlook for 2026-2028, reviewing recent economic developments and offering projections for its seven member states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. According to the report, aggregate GDP growth across the EDB region is forecast to reach 2.3% in 2026. Kyrgyzstan (9.3%), Tajikistan (8.1%), Uzbekistan (6.8%), and Kazakhstan (5.5%) are expected to remain the region’s fastest-growing economies. After two years of rapid expansion, the region’s GDP growth is set to moderate to 1.9% in 2025, down from 4.5% in 2024, mainly due to a slowdown in Russia’s economy. Although lower oil prices are expected to reduce export revenues for energy exporters such as Kazakhstan and Russia, the impact on overall growth will be limited. Meanwhile, net oil importers, including Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, will benefit from improved terms of trade and reduced inflationary pressure. High global gold prices will support foreign exchange earnings for key regional exporters, including Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The report also notes a gradual decline in the U.S. dollar’s share in central bank reserves across the region, though its role in international settlements remains stable. Kazakhstan Kazakhstan’s economy is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2026, supported by the implementation of the National Infrastructure Plan and the state program “Order for Investment,” which are expected to cushion the effects of lower oil prices. Growth in non-commodity exports will also play a stabilizing role. Inflation is forecast to decline to 9.7% by the end of 2026, after peaking early in the year due to a value-added tax (VAT) increase. The average tenge exchange rate is expected to be KZT 535 per U.S. dollar, underpinned by a high base interest rate and rising export revenues. Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan is forecast to lead the region in GDP growth at 9.3% in 2026, driven by higher investment in transport, energy, water infrastructure, and housing construction. Inflation is expected to ease to 8.3%, although further declines will be constrained by higher tariffs and excise taxes. The average exchange rate is projected at KGS 89.2 per U.S. dollar, supported by robust remittance inflows and high global gold prices, gold being the country’s main export commodity. Tajikistan Tajikistan is projected to maintain high GDP growth of 8.1% in 2026, fueled by capacity expansion in the energy and manufacturing sectors, along with rising prices for gold and non-ferrous metals. Inflation is expected to reach 4.5% by year-end. The somoni is expected to remain stable, with an average exchange rate of TJS 9.8 per U.S. dollar, supported by growth in exports and remittances. Uzbekistan Uzbekistan’s economy is forecast to expand by 6.8% in 2026, sustained by strong investment activity and favorable gold prices. Inflation is projected to decline to 6.7%, helped by tight monetary policy and a stable exchange rate. The average soum exchange rate is expected to be UZS 12,800 per U.S. dollar, supported by high remittances and increased metal exports.

Car Insurance

Kazakhstan Proposes Doubling Insurance Payments for Traffic Accident Victims

Kazakhstan is considering major changes to its compulsory motor insurance legislation, with members of parliament proposing to double compensation payments for victims of traffic accidents. Presenting the bill in the Mazhilis, MP Nartay Sarsengaliyev said the initiative aims to restore social justice and strengthen financial protection for citizens. He said current compensation levels no longer reflect the country’s actual economic conditions. At present, in the event of a fatal traffic accident, the dependents of an adult victim receive approximately $13,600. Under the proposed amendments, this amount would rise to around $29,100. The bill also outlines a similar twofold increase in compensation for children and individuals who become disabled as a result of accidents. A key provision of the legislation addresses how compensation is distributed in the event of a fatality. Currently, payouts are made only to dependents or those under the care of the deceased. If no such individuals exist, no compensation is paid. Lawmakers propose amending this policy to allow funds to be transferred to the spouse or parents of the deceased in such cases. According to Sarsengaliyev, denying compensation despite regular insurance premium payments during a person’s lifetime is unjust. The proposed legislation would also require insurance companies to proactively contact the families of deceased victims and hire independent experts to assess damages. While the initiative has broad parliamentary support, lawmakers acknowledged the financial risks involved. Deputy Tatyana Savelyeva noted that while the government supports the proposal in principle, the Cabinet has warned that doubling insurance payouts could result in a more than threefold increase in the cost of insurance policies. Maria Khadzhieva, Deputy Chair of the Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market, highlighted the financial pressure already facing insurers. Over the past five years, auto insurance payouts have increased 3.7 times to reach $135.1 million, while premiums collected have grown by just 47% to $67 million. She argued that further increases in payouts would be unsustainable without a corresponding rise in insurance premiums. As previously reported by the Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan set a national record for new car sales this year, further straining the country’s auto insurance system.

Asset Recovery

Kazakhstan Claims Success in Asset Recovery, But Transparency Questions Linger

Kazakhstan’s authorities have presented the results of the campaign to recover illegally acquired or transferred assets as a major success. In September 2025, during his address to the nation, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signaled a transition from asset recovery to broader investor-protection priorities. According to Prosecutor General Berik Asylov, recoveries totaling hundreds of billions of tenge have been returned to the state since the launch of the asset-recovery campaign. This includes not only cash and securities, but also land plots, business assets, and luxury property. Overall, official estimates put the total value of assets clawed back under the campaign at around 1.2–1.3 trillion tenge (roughly $2.3 billion), though only part of this amount has been directly credited to the state budget. A tax on indulgence When the law “On the Return of Illegally Acquired Assets to the State” was adopted in 2023, it was presented not merely as a fiscal tool but as a means of restoring historical justice. As part of the concept of building a “Fair Kazakhstan,” the authorities promised that assets once hidden in offshore accounts or invested in luxury real estate abroad would be redirected toward social development. Two years later, it is clear that the assets have indeed been returned. Yet instead of a transparent process in which citizens could clearly see how recovered funds were being used, the system has created a dense layer of bureaucracy. Money has been accumulated in the Special State Fund (SSF), the operating mechanisms of which continue to raise questions among experts. Despite official reports highlighting the construction of social facilities financed with seized assets, public debate over the transparency of the fund has not subsided. The authorities have also declined to publish the names of former asset owners or detailed information on specific accounts, enterprises, or land plots transferred to the state. A defining feature of the campaign was the rejection of a purely punitive approach. Instead, the government introduced a mechanism of “voluntary return,” effectively offering members of the elite a compromise: return swathes of your illegally acquired wealth, and the state will refrain from pursuing past offenses. The law clearly defined the target group, focusing on individuals owning assets valued at more than 13 million MCI, or roughly $100 million. This ensured pressure on large capital holders while shielding medium-sized businesses. At the same time, the closed nature of the list created a powerful instrument of leverage over the business elite. Experts have described this approach as a “tax on indulgence.” Rather than engaging in lengthy and uncertain international legal battles over offshore assets, Astana has opted for pretrial settlements. In legal terms, this takes the form of procedural agreements in which suspects acknowledge wrongdoing, return assets, and receive reduced sentences or exemption from liability. The most prominent and controversial example is the case of Kairat Satybaldy, a nephew of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev. After returning assets reportedly worth approximately $1.4 billion, he received a reduced sentence and was released ahead of schedule. From a fiscal standpoint,...

Food Security

Kazakhstan to Host International Genetic Resources Bank

Kazakhstan will host an international genetic resources bank following unanimous approval from the 57 member states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). The initiative, spearheaded by the Islamic Organization for Food Security (IOFS), aims to preserve the biological diversity of agricultural crops and foster scientific collaboration among OIC countries. “One of the key initiatives we plan to implement in Kazakhstan is the creation of a Genetic Resources Bank, or an international genetic bank. Its goal is to preserve the biological diversity of agricultural crops,” said Berik Aryn, Director General of the IOFS, speaking at a roundtable in Astana marking OIC Food Security Day. According to Aryn, the government of Kazakhstan has already expressed its readiness to host the facility, and a project roadmap has been completed. The Qatar Fund for Development (QFFD) has pledged approximately $2 million to finance the first phase. “We expect to begin practical implementation of the project next year and complete the creation of the bank by 2029,” Aryn said. He cited the Svalbard Global Seed Vault in Norway as a comparable model but noted that the Kazakh bank would offer broader functionality. The project will eventually include a research center focused on crop breeding and the development of varieties resistant to climate change, drought, and other environmental stresses. “We want this gene bank to eventually become a full-fledged research center where scientists from OIC countries can work on creating new crop varieties that are resistant to climate change, drought, and other adverse factors, as well as on increasing yields,” Aryn added. The specific location is still under consideration, though the Almaty region is currently the most likely candidate due to its favorable climatic conditions. “Genetic material varies: some samples can be stored for decades, while others require regular updating and cultivation on site. In terms of climatic conditions, the Almaty region is the optimal region,” Aryn noted. In parallel with the gene bank initiative, IOFS is also advancing projects across Central Asia that promote the use of biochar to rehabilitate degraded soils. Biochar, a carbon-rich substance produced via pyrolysis of biomass, enhances soil fertility, improves water retention, and acts as a sorbent by absorbing harmful substances. “Biochar is a technology that is already widely used around the world, including in Arab and Asian countries. It is particularly relevant for Central Asia, as the region's soils are often salinated. Biochar is capable of absorbing salt and significantly improving soil structure, creating favorable conditions for agriculture for decades,” said IOFS Project Manager Bakytzhan Arystanbek. As previously reported by the Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan launched its first agroclimatic testing site for carbon technologies, Kaz Agro Carbon, in early November.

Central Asia + Japan

Japan Opens First Leaders-Level Summit With Central Asia

Japan hosted its first leaders-level summit with the five Central Asian republics on Friday, marking a diplomatic advance in a relationship that has existed for more than two decades but has rarely drawn wide attention. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi opened the “Central Asia + Japan” summit in Tokyo, with discussions set to continue through December 20. The summit elevates a dialogue that until now has been conducted mainly at foreign ministers’ or senior diplomatic levels. Japan launched the original “Central Asia + Japan” initiative in 2004 to build cooperation with the Central Asian states through economic, educational, and political channels. In a bilateral meeting linked to the summit, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi met with his Tajik counterpart Sirojiddin Muhriddin, with the two sides agreeing on a cooperation program covering 2026–2028 and an investment treaty. These agreements represent the most concrete, publicly documented outcomes from the summit’s opening day and highlight Japan’s focus on strengthening bilateral ties alongside the broader multilateral dialogue. In parallel with the leaders’ meeting, Japan is hosting a “Central Asia + Japan” business forum organized by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry to promote trade and private-sector cooperation. The leaders’ summit follows high-level bilateral diplomacy earlier in the week. On December 18, Prime Minister Takaichi met Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Tokyo, where the two leaders signed a strategic partnership statement focused on energy, critical minerals, and expanded cooperation. Central Asia’s geopolitical significance has increased in recent years as its governments pursue multi-vector foreign policies aimed at broadening their external partnerships beyond traditional ties with Russia and China. Japan’s decision to elevate its dialogue with the region reflects this shift and Tokyo’s effort to remain an active partner amid growing engagement from the European Union, the United States, South Korea, and others. For Friday, the summit’s significance lies less in headline announcements than in its symbolism and early bilateral outcomes. The opening confirmed Japan’s intent to engage Central Asia at the highest political level, with broader commitments expected once the leaders conclude their talks and release a joint statement or action plan.

Podcast

Pannier and Hillard’s Spotlight on Central Asia: New Episode Available Now

As Managing Editor of The Times of Central Asia, I’m delighted that, in partnership with the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, from October 19, we are the home of the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast. Chaired by seasoned broadcasters Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL’s long-running Majlis podcast and Michael Hillard of The Red Line, each fortnightly instalment will take you on a deep dive into the latest news, developments, security issues, and social trends across an increasingly pivotal region. This week, we're unpacking Turkmenistan's Neutrality Summit, a rare moment where a string of big names quietly rolled into Ashgabat, and where the public messaging mattered just as much as the backroom deals. We'll also cut through the noise on the latest reporting from the Tajik–Afghan border, where misinformation is colliding with real security developments on the ground. From there, we'll take a hard look at the results of Kyrgyzstan's elections, what they actually tell us about where Bishkek is heading next, and what they don't, before examining the looming power rationing now shaping daily life and political pressure in two Central Asian states. And to wrap it up, we're joined by two outstanding experts for a frank conversation on gendered violence in Central Asia: what's changing, what isn't, and why the official statistics may only capture a fraction of the reality. On the show this week: Daryana Gryaznova (Equality Now) Svetlana Dzardanova (Human Rights and Corruption Researcher)