Kazakhstan Environment - The Times Of Central Asia

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Climate Change

Central Asia’s Climate Risks Could Cost Up to 130% of GDP by 2080

By 2080, climate change is expected to have a profound impact on the economies of Central Asian countries, with potential losses ranging from 20% to 130% of GDP. The most severe effects are projected for mountainous nations. These estimates were presented at a CAREC technology forum by Iskandar Abdullaev, a senior research fellow at the International Water Management Institute in Uzbekistan. According to Abdullaev, climate change is no longer solely an environmental issue but an increasingly significant economic factor. Key risks include droughts and water scarcity, floods, heatwaves, and glacier melt. The projected economic impact varies across the region. Tajikistan could face losses of between 80% and 130% of GDP, Kyrgyzstan 70% to 120%, Kazakhstan 40% to 80%, Uzbekistan 30% to 45%, and Turkmenistan 20% to 60%. Abdullaev emphasized that mountainous countries – Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan – are particularly vulnerable, as climate change directly affects water resources. Glacier melt reduces river flows, creating challenges for both energy production and water supply. Droughts and extreme heat are already placing pressure on agriculture, with declining crop yields and reduced pasture productivity. Without adaptation measures, the region’s long-term sustainability could be at risk. Experts stress that mitigation and adaptation efforts are essential to reduce these risks. These include modernizing irrigation systems, adopting climate-resilient agricultural technologies, and expanding renewable energy capacity. This is not the only warning. According to the World Bank, natural disasters are already causing significant economic damage in Central Asia. Losses from extreme events, including floods and earthquakes, can reach up to 6% of GDP, with earthquakes alone accounting for up to $2 billion in damages. At the same time, countries in the region face substantial financing gaps following major disasters. In Tajikistan, this gap could reach up to $1.5 billion. Experts warn that climate change is likely to intensify these risks, further increasing the economic burden on the region.

Science

A Technology to Reduce Harmful Industrial Emissions Developed in Kazakhstan

Scientists at Aktobe Regional University have developed a new gas purification technology capable of reducing dust and harmful substances in industrial emissions by dozens of times, the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Kazakhstan reported. The development is intended for use in the metallurgical, energy, and food industries, as well as in the production of construction materials. The technology is based on an improved regeneration system for bag filters, enabling the cleaning of filter elements from accumulated dust without the need for replacement. This approach helps preserve the filter material, improves purification efficiency, and extends the service life of equipment, contributing to more stable production processes. The technology is currently being implemented at several industrial facilities in the cities of Aktobe, Aksu, and Ekibastuz. At the Aktobe Ferroalloy Plant, for example, use of the system has reduced the concentration of harmful components in emissions by approximately 40 times. According to the ministry, similar solutions are already in use at the Aksu Ferroalloy Plant and at enterprises operated by JSC TNK Kazchrome, helping to reduce environmental impact and ensure compliance with environmental regulations. The ministry emphasized the importance of the development in terms of import substitution, noting that such gas purification systems were previously supplied mainly from abroad. The technology also aligns with the objectives of the National Carbon Quota Allocation Plan, which aims to reduce industrial emissions and support the country’s climate goals. The equipment is manufactured in Karaganda as part of scientific and technical cooperation between the university and KazEnergoMashEkologia. The results of pilot testing have been registered with the National Center for State Scientific and Technical Expertise, allowing the project to participate in a competition for the commercialization of scientific developments. The project received a state grant of $742,000, while the industrial partner invested an additional $260,000. The total cost of the developed and implemented gas purification equipment to date is approximately $805,000. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, scientists at Satbayev University in Almaty are also working on a compact device capable of converting mechanical vibrations from the environment into electrical energy.

Air Quality

Air Quality Report Shows Central Asia’s Air Getting Rapidly Worse

Tajikistan ranked as the world’s third most polluted country in 2025, according to the latest World Air Quality Report by IQAir. The report analyzed PM2.5 concentrations across 9,446 cities in 143 countries and territories. PM2.5, fine particulate matter measured in micrograms per cubic meter, is widely used as a key indicator of air pollution. The five most polluted countries in 2025 were Pakistan (67.3 µg/m³), Bangladesh (66.1 µg/m³), Tajikistan (57.3 µg/m³), Chad (53.6 µg/m³), and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (50.2 µg/m³). Only 13 countries and territories met the World Health Organization annual PM2.5 guideline of 5 µg/m³, including Australia, Iceland, and Estonia. Overall, 130 out of 143 countries exceeded the guideline. Kazakhstan records the cleanest air in Central Asia, but still had the 29th worst air globally in 2025, a very significant decline from 71st in 2024. Uzbekistan has the region's dirtiest air, and the 10th worst worldwide, while Kyrgyzstan is only slightly better, in 19th. Like Kazakhstan, both countries have fallen down the rankings since they were last put together in 2024. Kyrgyzstan had been in 41st place, while Uzbekistan has fallen from 19th. Turkmenistan, which was also among the 30 most polluted countries in 2024, was not included in the 2025 report due to a lack of available data. Karaganda in Kazakhstan is Central Asia's most polluted city, ranking 26th globally in 2025. The city recorded an annual PM2.5 level of 72.6 µg/m³, more than ten times the WHO guideline. Other heavily polluted cities in the region included Fergana (30th, 68.8 µg/m³), Dushanbe (51st, 57.3 µg/m³), Guliston (100th), and Tashkent (225th, 39 µg/m³). The report also noted that the world’s 25 most polluted cities in 2025 were all located in India, Pakistan, and China, with India accounting for three of the top four.

Qosh Tepa Canal

Afghanistan Advances Qosh Tepa Canal While Urging Regional Water Cooperation

Uzbekistan just hosted the Tashkent Water Week forum, and the speaker many wanted to hear from was the representative from Afghanistan. Central Asia and Afghanistan are being hit hard by climate change. This region has endured several droughts already this decade, and indications are that this year will bring drought again. Hanging over the forum was Afghanistan’s plan to complete the Qosh-Tepa Canal in 2028, which will draw water from a river that Central Asian countries also use and further complicate the regional water situation. [caption id="attachment_18865" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Qosh Tepa Canal, artist's rendition; image: TCA, Aleksandr Potolitsyn[/caption] Our Fair Share The forum, which actually spanned only two days, March 25-26, brought together some 80 speakers and more than 1,200 delegates from 19 countries. In the past five years, Central Asia has seen noticeably diminished precipitation, melting glaciers, and record high temperatures, making water conservation a priority. The last days of March saw temperatures soar into the 30s Celsius in southern Kazakhstan. In both Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, there were record-high temperatures in February. Rainfall for the last three months of 2025 was also far below normal across Central Asia. When the Taliban government announced in early 2022 that it would build the 285-kilometer-long, 100-meter-wide, 8.5-meter-deep Qosh Tepa to irrigate lands in northern Afghanistan, it added another water concern to Central Asia, particularly the governments in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Afghanistan’s Deputy Minister of Water and Energy, Mujeeb-ur-Rahman Omar, led the Afghan delegation at the Tashkent Water Week. At the forum, he repeated his government’s position that historically, Afghanistan has taken only very small volumes of water from the Amu-Darya River basin, while its northern neighbors have been using large amounts for irrigation for decades. “We believe in the fair and sustainable development of the region,” Omar said, adding, “We intend to develop (water resources) on a legal basis, in accordance with the legal rights of the countries in the region.“ Omar is correct that under international law, Afghanistan has an equal right to water from the Amu-Darya, one of Central Asia’s two great rivers. The river currently marks the border between Afghanistan to the south, and Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and a small section of Turkmenistan to the north. There is no separate regional water use agreement between the Central Asian states and Afghanistan. Since none of the Central Asian governments officially recognize the Taliban as the legitimate Afghan government, Russia is the only country that does at the moment, there is no possibility of a legal treaty on water use being signed. So, shortly after the construction of the canal is finished in 2028, some 20% of the water in the Amu-Darya, starting from the point just west of the Tajik-Uzbek border, will be diverted into the Qosh Tepa canal. It is already clear that this will mean the end of some downstream communities in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan that are on the edge of the Kara-Kum Desert and which are already under strain from insufficient water supplies. Turkmenistan did not send a...

Water

Kazakhstan Launches Water Spring Clean-Up Campaign

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation has launched an environmental campaign titled Möldir Bülak (“Transparent, Clean Spring”) aimed at restoring and protecting water springs across the country. The initiative began with the clean-up of 28 springs in southern regions: Shymkent, Almaty, Zhambyl, Kyzylorda, Turkestan and Zhetisu. Around 3,800 people, including volunteers and students, took part in the effort. Participants cleared debris, restored natural spring outlets, improved surrounding areas and planted tree saplings. At the ministry’s initiative, the first volunteer movement in the water sector, Bolashaktyn Kainary, has been established in the Zhambyl region. It brings together students from the Kazakh National University of Water Management and Irrigation in Taraz. Similar volunteer groups are expected to be formed in other regions. According to officials, the movement will not be limited to environmental campaigns. It is also intended to support long-term efforts to promote water conservation and strengthen environmental awareness. At the same time, the Kaz hydrogeology National Hydrogeological Service is conducting a nationwide inventory of springs. So far, specialists have identified 711 potential springs, while a broader map of 2,772 sites has been compiled using archival materials. Springs are viewed as an additional source of water supply amid growing water shortages. By 2027, the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation plans to carry out geological exploration to identify new groundwater sources in five regions: Akmola, West Kazakhstan, Kostanay, Zhetisu and Ulytau. The initiative aims to expand groundwater reserves and provide additional water supplies for settlements, agriculture and economic sectors. Overall, 4,803 groundwater deposits have been explored in Kazakhstan for drinking water supply, irrigation and industrial use. Usable groundwater reserves are estimated at 43.2 million cubic meters per day, while only about 1.5 million cubic meters per day, roughly 3% of the total, is currently being utilised. Of the proven reserves, 21.2 million cubic meters per day could be used for drinking water, 2.4 million cubic meters per day for industrial and technical needs, and 19.6 million cubic meters per day for irrigation. “In the context of increasing water shortages and climate change, developing groundwater potential is considered a key priority for ensuring sustainable water use. Despite the significant potential of groundwater resources, a large portion remains insufficiently studied,” said Deputy Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Talgat Momyshev.

Natural World

Kazakhstan Plans First Legal Saiga Horn Exports

In 2026, Kazakhstan plans to begin officially exporting the horns of saiga antelopes for the first time in its history. The initial shipment is expected to total 20 tons, potentially generating tens of millions of dollars on Asian markets. The decision appears both logical and controversial. On one hand, the state has an opportunity to recover part of the funds spent on protecting the species. On the other, legalising trade could stimulate demand and once again make the saiga antelope a target for poachers. From the Brink of Extinction to a “Problem Species” In the early 2000s, the situation was critical. By 2003, only about 21,000 saigas remained in Kazakhstan. The animals were widely poached for their horns, which were sold on Asian markets. The government responded with strict measures, including a hunting ban, enhanced protection, and the establishment of specialised agencies such as Okhotzooprom, responsible for safeguarding rare and endangered wildlife. Even after 2015, when more than 200,000 animals died from pasteurellosis, conservation programs continued. The results were striking. By 2025, the saiga population had surpassed 2 million. However, this conservation success has created new challenges. Large herds have increasingly damaged agricultural land, trampling pastures and destroying crops. Farmers in affected regions have called for urgent intervention and compensation. Stockpiles and Potential Revenue In response, authorities introduced population control measures, including limited culling. At the same time, antlers accumulated in storage facilities both from legally culled animals and those seized from poachers. Today, around 20 tons of saiga horns are reportedly stored in warehouses. Maintaining these stockpiles entails budgetary costs. With black market prices reaching up to $3,000 per kilogram, the theoretical value of the reserves could approach $60 million. In practice, officials expect lower but still substantial revenue. The main buyers are expected to be in Asia, particularly China, where saiga horns are used in traditional medicine. To enter international markets, Kazakhstan must comply with the strict requirements of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). This includes demonstrating that trade does not threaten the species’ survival, and ensuring full traceability of the product’s origin. Without such verification, exports will not be permitted. Why Horns Are Being Exported At first glance, domestic processing of saiga horns into pharmaceutical products might appear more profitable. In reality, this option faces significant obstacles. Scientific evidence does not show that there are any medicinal properties in saiga horns, which consist primarily of keratin, similar to human hair and nails. In addition, the traditional medicine market is highly conservative, with consumers placing greater trust in established local brands. Buyers also tend to prefer whole horns, as powdered products are easier to counterfeit. Furthermore, the saiga population remains vulnerable to disease outbreaks, which could undermine long-term investment in processing facilities. Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations further limit investor interest in industries linked to wildlife exploitation. Risks of Legalisation The main concern is that legalising trade could unintentionally strengthen illegal markets. Once a product becomes legal, it...