04 May 2025

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Opinion – Central Asia’s Looming Water Crisis: A Ticking Time Bomb

When people think of Central Asia, they often picture vast deserts, ancient Silk Road cities, and oil pipelines stretching to distant markets. Yet the region’s most urgent and combustible resource is not buried underground — it flows above it. Water, or more precisely the lack of it, is rapidly becoming the defining fault line of Central Asia’s future. For decades, the five Central Asian republics have tiptoed around a growing water crisis. The two major rivers that sustain life in this arid region, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya, are now so contested and depleted that what was once a technical issue has metastasized into a geopolitical threat. The region's major rivers, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya are under immense pressure, threatening agriculture, livelihoods, and regional stability. At the heart of the crisis is a tragic irony. The upstream countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, are rich in water but poor in energy and cash. They need to release water in winter to generate hydropower. Downstream nations, particularly Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, want water stored until the summer to irrigate vast cotton and wheat fields. The result? Mutual distrust, occasional diplomatic spats, and an accelerating race to dam, divert, and hoard water in a region already gasping under the weight of climate change. A Region Parched Central Asia annually utilizes over 60 billion cubic meters of water for irrigation from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. However, recent years have seen a decline in river flows, with the actual flow of the Syr Darya being 20–23% less than the norm. Further, the ghost of the Aral Sea — a once-thriving inland lake that has now shrunk by over 90% in its volume and 74 % in surface area — serves as a haunting reminder of the cost of mismanagement. The Soviet legacy of excessive irrigation has morphed into a post-Soviet scramble for control, where water is not just a tool of survival but a lever of power. This desiccation has transformed the region, leading to the emergence of the Aralkum Desert and causing severe ecological and health issues. Climate Change Intensifies the Crisis Climate change is exacerbating water scarcity in Central Asia. A recent study revealed that an extreme heatwave in March 2025, with temperatures soaring 5 to 10°C above pre-industrial levels, was significantly amplified by global warming. Such temperature surges accelerate glacier melt and increase evaporation rates, further reducing water availability. By some estimates, Central Asia could lose over 30% of its freshwater resources by 2050. Yet, rather than galvanize cooperation, this existential threat has sparked more competition. International efforts have largely fallen flat. The International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS), the region’s main water cooperation body, is riddled with inefficiencies and lacks enforcement power. External actors like China and Russia have their own interests, often deepening the regional divide rather than healing it. Inefficient Water Management Inefficient agricultural practices remain one of the most profound and persistent contributors to water mismanagement across Central Asia. In...

Kazakhstan and France Join Forces to Save Lake Balkhash

Work has begun in Almaty on the development of a master plan to preserve Lake Balkhash, one of Central Asia’s largest bodies of water. Experts from Kazakhstan and France will collaborate on the project, according to the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation of the Republic of Kazakhstan.  Master Plan for the Balkhash Ecosystem A two-day seminar has been launched in Almaty, during which a roadmap for the action plan was presented. The document includes an analysis of the water resources in the Ile-Balkhash basin, a study of groundwater reserves, the creation of a digital platform to monitor water levels, and the automation of hydraulic engineering facilities. Additional measures aim to ensure the more efficient use of the basin’s water resources and involve joint projects with China to protect the Ili River. The French Development Agency (AFD) and the French Geological and Mining Research Bureau (BRGM) are key partners in the project. French experts are currently collecting the necessary data and planning site visits to inspect wells, hydrological stations, and irrigated lands. The project is overseen by the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation of Kazakhstan, with support from Kazakhmys Corporation LLP. The seminar is attended by representatives from Kazakhstani ministries, international organizations, academia, and the Consulate General of France in Almaty. “For a long time, issues related to Lake Balkhash were addressed on a case-by-case basis, without a unified strategy. To move towards a systematic approach, we are starting to develop a master plan,” said Bolat Bekniyaz, First Deputy Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation. He emphasized that the plan would consider all aspects of the basin’s sustainability, from ecology and water management to energy, agriculture, and socio-economic development. Kazakhstan-France Cooperation The Balkhash preservation initiative builds on earlier agreements between Kazakhstan and France. Last October, it was announced that a memorandum of cooperation and a trilateral agreement, covering groundwater exploration in the Ili-Balkhash basin, were in preparation.  The French Development Agency (AFD), the French Geological and Mining Research Bureau (BRGM), and the International Water Agency (OiEau) are leading partners in this endeavor. During a meeting with Kazakhstan’s Minister of Water Resources, Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, French Ambassador Sylvain Guillemot highlighted the growing interest of French companies in constructing and modernizing water facilities, as well as in projects related to leak detection and resource management optimization. Water Resource Challenges in Balkhash Separately, on the shores of Lake Balkhash, in the village of Ulken, Kazakhstan plans to build its first nuclear power plant.  According to unofficial data, since early 2025, approximately 3.8 billion cubic meters of water have been diverted from the Kapshagay Reservoir to Lake Balkhash, a move that has positively impacted the region’s ecological conditions and the Ili River delta.  Experts have long warned that without a coordinated approach to water resource management, Lake Balkhash risks following the catastrophic path of the Aral Sea. Declining water levels are already impacting biodiversity, climate conditions, and the socio-economic well-being of local communities. The development of a master plan is viewed as a crucial...

Water Level in Lake Balkhash Steadily Rising

Over the past year, the water level in Lake Balkhash has risen by 0.12 meters, and the volume of water has increased by 2 billion cubic meters, according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation.  Located 175 miles northwest of Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city, Lake Balkhash is the world’s fifteenth-largest lake. In May 2024, reports indicated that Balkhash’s water level had risen by 0.23 meters since the start of the year, largely due to increased rainfall and snowmelt floods during spring. Since the beginning of 2025, 3.8 billion cubic meters of water have been released from the Kapchagay reservoir in Almaty region into Lake Balkhash. The lake’s water volume largely depends on the transboundary Ili River, which originates in China and supplies about 70% of Balkhash’s inflow. The river’s flow is regulated by the Kapchagay reservoir. This year, Lake Balkhash is expected to receive a total of 12 billion cubic meters of water from the reservoir. According to Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, the ministry will meet with French experts next week to begin preparations for a master plan to conserve Lake Balkhash through 2040. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that in December 2024, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation signed a cooperation agreement with the French Development Agency (AFD) and the French Geological Survey (BRGM, Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières) to preserve Lake Balkhash.  Under the agreement, the French side will allocate a grant of 1.35 million euros to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation to support the development of sustainable water management practices for the lake. The project includes a comprehensive study of the Lake Balkhash basin and the creation of a long-term preservation plan extending through 2040.

Ecologists Warn Central Asian Dams May Threaten UNESCO Heritage Site

A coalition of international environmentalists is sounding the alarm over the impact of large-scale dam construction in Central Asia, warning that it could cause irreversible harm to the Western Tien Shan, a UNESCO World Heritage Site jointly shared by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. Dam Projects Multiply Across Region According to a recent report by the coalition Rivers Without Boundaries, dozens of new hydropower projects are either in development or under construction across the region. The group says this wave of dam-building poses a significant threat to the unique ecosystems and biodiversity of the Western Tien Shan, which was inscribed on the UNESCO World Heritage List in 2016 due to its exceptional natural value. The report identifies more than five dams already constructed in recent years, with an additional 15 to 40 projects currently in the pipeline. These developments are affecting key river systems, including the Chatkal, Ugam, Pskem, and Aksu, which play a vital role in sustaining the region’s delicate ecological balance. Protected Areas Under Pressure Some of the most contentious projects are unfolding inside or near designated conservation zones. In Kyrgyzstan, a dam is planned within the Besh-Aral Nature Reserve, while gold mining activities have already degraded parts of the Chatkal River valley. In Kazakhstan, officials are considering a series of dams in Sayram-Ugam National Park. Uzbekistan is also pressing ahead with new hydropower schemes, including one on the Pskem River, drawing criticism from environmental advocates. “Short-term economic goals are being prioritized over the long-term need to protect this globally important natural area,” said Eugene Simonov, international coordinator of Rivers Without Boundaries. He urged UNESCO and the broader international community to intervene before further damage is done. Threats to Rare Species and Ecosystems Environmentalists argue that dam construction is fragmenting river systems and isolating animal habitats, particularly those of rare and endemic species. The snow leopard and several native fish species are among the wildlife at risk. Floodplain forests and wild fruit tree habitats, critical components of the area’s biodiversity, are also under threat. Alexander Kolotov, regional director of Rivers Without Boundaries, highlighted the dangers of building dams within protected national parks. “We are not properly measuring the impact on fish and river ecosystems,” he said. “If this continues, we could lose many species forever.” Legal and Diplomatic Concerns The group further contends that several dam projects may be violating international agreements, including the World Heritage Convention and the Espoo and Aarhus Conventions. These treaties require environmental impact assessments, public consultation, and cross-border cooperation, all of which may be lacking or inadequately implemented. Rivers Without Boundaries has formally petitioned UNESCO to add the Western Tien Shan to its List of World Heritage in Danger. The proposal is expected to be reviewed at the UNESCO World Heritage Committee session scheduled for July 2025. Previously, Evgeny Vinokurov, Vice-Chairman and Chief Economist of the Eurasian Development Bank, issued a stark warning about Central Asia’s looming water and energy crisis, noting that regional development must be carefully balanced with environmental protection.

EDB Chief Economist Outlines Central Asia’s Water Challenges and Proposes Solutions

Evgeny Vinokurov, Vice-Chairman and Chief Economist of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), presented a sobering assessment of Central Asia’s water and energy challenges at the Annual Meetings of the Association of Development Financing Institutions in Asia and the Pacific (ADFIAP) on April 23. The event, held in Muscat, Oman, featured a plenary session dedicated to sustainable water management and practical strategies for addressing mounting environmental pressures in the region. Shrinking Glaciers and Growing Demand Vinokurov unveiled findings from the EDB’s think tank research, which paint a stark picture: Central Asia’s glaciers have shrunk by 30% over the past 50 years, while water demand continues to rise. Despite this, much of the region's water infrastructure remains outdated and inefficient, resulting in a loss of 40-55% of available water. Additionally, 10 million people in Central Asia still lack access to safe drinking water. Without targeted intervention, annual water scarcity could reach 5-12 cubic kilometers by 2028. National Commitments and Regional Coordination The EDB report emphasized water conservation as a critical pillar in the region’s response to these challenges. Several countries are already pursuing large-scale water-saving initiatives: Kazakhstan plans to expand water-saving irrigation technologies to 150,000 hectares per year by 2030. Uzbekistan has committed to saving 15 billion cubic meters of water. Kyrgyzstan aims to construct 106 new reservoirs to secure water supply. “Central Asia’s water crisis cannot be solved in isolation,” said Vinokurov. “Our research provides a roadmap for efficiency, investment, and, most importantly, regional cooperation. This is why the water-energy nexus remains a strategic priority for our Bank, both in terms of investments and research.” Localizing Water Solutions The EDB, in partnership with the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), recently published a report titled Irrigation Equipment Production in Central Asia: Industrialising the Water Sector, calling for localized production of irrigation equipment to enhance water efficiency and reduce dependency on imports. Another key publication from the EDB, The Irtysh River Basin: Transboundary Challenges and Practical Solutions, focuses on the Irtysh River basin shared by China, Kazakhstan, and Russia. The report outlines increasing water demand across the basin and proposes measures for managing cross-border water resources through collaborative frameworks. Uzbekistan Joins the EDB On April 9, Uzbekistan became the seventh member of the Eurasian Development Bank, joining Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. The move is expected to provide new avenues for Uzbekistan to modernize its infrastructure, particularly in the transport, energy, and water sectors, and support its broader industrial and agricultural development goals.

South Korea Backs Forest Restoration in Kazakhstan’s Fire-Ravaged Abay Region

Kazakhstan and South Korea have launched a joint initiative to restore forests in the Abay region of eastern Kazakhstan, which was severely affected by large-scale wildfires. On April 22, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources signed a memorandum of understanding with the Asian Forest Cooperation Organization (AFoCO) and South Korea’s KT&G Corporation to implement the project​. Scheduled to run through December 31, 2027, with potential for extension, the initiative is part of KT&G’s Green Globe program and focuses on three key components: Reforestation: Pine saplings will be planted in burned areas, with participation from local communities and KT&G staff in Kazakhstan. Technology Transfer: Korean information and communication technology (ICT) tools will be introduced for monitoring and preventing wildfires. Training sessions and seminars for forest service professionals are planned in Almaty. Prevention and Awareness: Public education campaigns will promote fire prevention practices and aim to reduce human-caused fire risks. The project builds on an earlier agreement signed in June 2024 between Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Ecology and the Korea Forest Service. That memorandum covered broader cooperation areas, including forest legislation reform, biodiversity protection, and ecosystem restoration​. As part of this growing partnership, Kazakh forest specialists have undergone training in South Korea, learning advanced techniques in reforestation and fire prevention. Officials expect the new project to boost Kazakhstan’s efforts in sustainable forest restoration, enhance environmental resilience, and reduce climate-related and human-induced ecological threats.