Tajikistan - The Times Of Central Asia

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Earthquake in Tajikistan Kills One Child, Damages About 30 Homes

A powerful earthquake struck Tajikistan on Sunday, killing a young child who was trapped under a wall, damaging about 30 houses and alarming people in parts of neighboring countries who felt the impact. The epicenter of the quake was 25 kilometers east of Rasht, Tajikistan, at a depth of 12.6 kilometers, the U.S. Geological Survey reported. The Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Centre issued a similar report, saying the magnitude was 5.9 and citing the accounts of witnesses who said there was strong shaking in Dushanbe, the capital. The Rasht area is about 150 kilometers northeast of Dushanbe and lies on the border with Kyrgyzstan. Disaster response authorities in Tajikistan identified the child who died as Abdugani Mashrabov, a resident of the rural village of Ushturpast, who was born in 2022. At least 29 residential buildings and a school were damaged in the quake, mostly in the Rasht area, according to preliminary information from the government. The Rasht valley, which has picturesque landscapes of gorges and mountains, is relatively remote. It was an opposition stronghold during Tajikistan’s civil war in the 1990s and was the scene of intense fighting. More recently, development had been slowed by tensions between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan that sometimes spilled into violence, though a border agreement signed last month between the two countries could open the way to increased trade and transit.

World Bank

Communities in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan Demand World Bank Investigation into Rogun HPP

The World Bank’s Inspection Panel has agreed to formally investigate the World Bank’s involvement in the Rogun Hydropower Project (HPP) in Tajikistan, following a complaint filed on behalf of communities living downstream on the Amu Darya River in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The complaint, submitted by the international environmental coalition Rivers without Boundaries, raises serious concerns about the project's environmental and social impacts. The group claims the World Bank approved funding for the project based on outdated and incomplete assessments, failing to adequately consider risks to local ecosystems and communities. At the heart of the issue is the potential impact of filling the Rogun reservoir, which could reduce water flow to the Amu Darya delta by 25% or more. Experts warn this could accelerate desertification, increase soil salinity, and threaten the livelihoods and health of up to 10 million people in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Particularly vulnerable are the region’s rare tugai forests, including the Tigrovaya Balka Reserve, which was inscribed on UNESCO’s World Heritage List in 2023. The dam's construction also endangers local aquatic species, such as the critically endangered Amu Darya false shovelnose sturgeon. “This investigation is a crucial step,” said Yevgeny Simonov, international coordinator of Rivers without Boundaries. “The Rogun project in its current form is a massive threat to the environment and to millions of people in Central Asia. The World Bank must adhere to its own environmental and social safeguards.” Activists also criticized the lack of public consultation in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, where affected communities were allegedly not informed in their native languages, Uzbek, Karakalpak, or Turkmen and where access to key documents was limited. Several complainants reportedly requested anonymity, citing fear of retaliation, which reflects the challenging environment for civic participation in the region. “People living in the lower Amu Darya basin have already suffered for decades due to poor water management and the drying of the Aral Sea. The Rogun project could be the final blow,” said Manana Kochladze of CEE Bankwatch Network. “There has been no serious dialogue with those whose lives depend on this river, which contradicts the basic principles of transparency and participation.” In 2023, environmental groups submitted proposed modifications to align the Rogun project with international standards, including cheaper and safer alternatives. However, the World Bank has yet to respond. Rivers without Boundaries alleges that the project violates multiple Bank policies, including those on environmental assessment, biodiversity protection, resource efficiency, dam safety, community engagement, and resettlement. The coalition is now urging the World Bank and other financiers to pause funding until a comprehensive, independent, and transparent investigation is completed and until meaningful steps are taken to prevent further harm to both people and nature.

ADB Forecasts Steady Economic Growth for Tajikistan Through 2026

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) projects that Tajikistan will sustain strong economic growth over the next two years, according to the bank’s Asian Development Outlook 2025 released in April. Robust Growth Ahead Tajikistan’s gross domestic product is forecast to grow by 7.4% in 2025 and 6.8% in 2026. This growth is expected to be fueled by significant investments in the energy and industrial sectors, solid domestic demand, and an increasingly dynamic private sector. While these figures mark a slight decline from the impressive 8.4% GDP growth recorded in 2024, one of the highest in the region, the ADB highlights the need for deeper structural reforms. In particular, digital transformation and the expansion of e-governance are deemed critical to ensuring long-term, sustainable development. Digital Transformation: Opportunities and Hurdles ADB’s Resident Representative in Tajikistan, Ko Sakamoto, emphasized the strategic importance of digitalization. “We welcome the government’s prioritization of digital transformation as a key driver of development. We stand ready to support efforts to overcome persistent barriers, including a lack of investment,” he said. Despite widespread mobile phone usage, Tajikistan ranks 139th globally in mobile internet speed. However, digital engagement is on the rise: in the first half of 2024, the number of registered digital wallets hit 10.4 million, and non-cash transactions rose 16.2% year-on-year. ADB experts recommend that Tajikistan focus on developing a robust digital infrastructure to broaden access to public services. The widespread integration of digital technologies in governance and business is seen as vital to industrial modernization and improving overall quality of life. Inflation, meanwhile, is projected at 5.0% in 2025 and 5.8% in 2026. Key inflationary pressures include rising consumer lending, salary increases for public sector employees, and higher utility tariffs. Continued Partnership and Support The Asian Development Bank, a major multilateral financial institution supporting sustainable and inclusive development across Asia and the Pacific, has been working with Tajikistan since 1998. Over that time, the country has received more than $2.7 billion in assistance, including $2.2 billion in grants. These funds have supported vital infrastructure projects in transportation and energy, as well as climate resilience and social development programs. Established in 1966, ADB has 69 member countries, 49 of which are from the region. The bank continues to be one of Tajikistan’s principal development partners, offering innovative financing tools and strategic cooperation to enhance economic sustainability and improve livelihoods.

Excitement Mounts After Trio of Central Asian Countries Launch Joint Bid to Host 2031 AFC Cup

On February 24, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan officially submitted a joint bid to host the 2031 AFC Asian Football Cup. If selected, the 2031 tournament would be the first top-level football event hosted in Central Asia. Central Asian Football Association (CAFA) President Rustam Emomali – the eldest son of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon - displayed his enthusiasm following the bid. “Our Central Asian region has never hosted the final part of the Asian Cup. I think the time has come. Our region is represented by very strong teams, and I am confident that together with the fraternal countries, we will host the final part of the Asian Cup at the highest level,” he stated. Whilst a joint bid amongst Central Asia countries has stoked excitement for many in the region, they currently face strong competition to host the event. The UAE, Kuwait, Australia, Indonesia, and South Korea have all signaled their intention to bid to be the tournament’s next host. Whilst none of the three Central Asian nations have hosted a top-level football tournament, Uzbekistan has experience with similar events after hosting the AFC U-20 and U-23 tournaments and the Futsal World Cup in 2024. However, after attending the Futsal World Cup, Uzbek fan Farrukh Irnazarov is nervous that the authorities may not promote the event aggressively enough. “When Uzbekistan hosts an event like this, they’re very serious about it. However, unfortunately their biggest concern is security. [The Futsal World Cup] wasn’t heavily publicized, and many people weren’t aware we were hosting it,” he told The Times of Central Asia. To be considered for the bid, all three countries will need to complete stadium renovations by the time the AFC committee makes its decision in 2026. Uzbekistan is the most prepared of the three, with stadiums already at international tournament capacity in Tashkent, Namangan, Fergana, and Qarshi. A stadium with a minimum capacity of 50,000 seats is required for the final, and Bishkek has already volunteered. Tashkent and Dushanbe are also revamping their respective stadiums, as the host nations must have two cities with 40,000-seat stadiums for the semi-finals in the tournament. [caption id="attachment_30647" align="aligncenter" width="2048"] The Dolon Omurzakov Stadium in Bishkek; image: TCA, Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] What is the AFC Asian Cup? The AFC Asian Cup is an Asian (plus Australia) football competition that has been held every four years since 1956. The previous tournament was held in 2023 in Qatar, which saw the host nation become champions. The tournament started with just four teams: South Korea, Israel, South Vietnam, and Hong Kong, playing a round-robin style tournament before expanding to 24 teams in 2019. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have already qualified for the next tournament in Saudi Arabia in 2027, whilst Tajikistan and Turkmenistan need to win their group in the final round of qualification to participate. However, for the 2031 tournament, if Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan see their bid accepted, all three teams will qualify automatically. Central Asia’s best tournament result came with a fourth-place finish by Uzbekistan...

Unpacking the Effects of Trump’s Tariffs on Central Asia

Trade analysts across Central Asia generally agree that the immediate impact of the United States' tariff policy on the export dynamics of their nations will likely be minimal, as observed in past experiences, except for Kazakhstan. However, there is a palpable concern regarding potential unforeseen consequences arising from a broader global trade conflict. Notably, the timing of the Trump administration's announcement regarding global tariffs on imports coincides with a period when Central Asian countries are actively working to enhance their regional trade relationships. This new tariff policy raises significant doubts about the authenticity of recent U.S. efforts to promote increased trade and investment in the region. The mixed signals coming from Washington may lead Central Asian leaders to re-evaluate their current trade partnerships, especially as they consider the benefits of strengthening ties with China and Russia against the attractiveness of expanding commerce with the United States. Similarly, the European Union may find an opportunity to improve its position, while India could leverage the Chabahar route (a multi-modal transportation route connecting India, Iran, Afghanistan, and potentially Central Asia and Europe). It is worth noting that the market is primarily situated in Asia, and this alternative could have adverse long-term effects on the United States. Kazakhstan, acknowledged as the United States’ largest trading partner in Central Asia, is poised to face significant repercussions from introducing new tariffs set at 27%. In 2024, trade relations between the U.S. and Kazakhstan reached an impressive total of $3.4 billion, with $1.1 billion in U.S. exports to Kazakhstan and $2.3 billion in imports from Kazakhstan to the U.S. However, a statement from the Kazakh Trade Ministry indicates that exports to the U.S. primarily consist of crude oil, uranium, silver, and other raw materials, all exempt from these tariffs. In 2024, Kazakhstan exported only $95.2 million worth of goods, which will now incur surcharges – a relatively modest figure compared to the country’s overall foreign trade turnover of $141.4 billion. Trade analysts suggest that Kazakhstan has little cause for concern, viewing this situation more as a psychological impact than a serious economic threat. Resource-driven Central Asian economies, such as Kazakhstan, may even find enhanced opportunities in the expanding Asian market. Trade dynamics in Central Asia reveal a complex landscape, especially concerning the United States. In 2024, Uzbekistan managed to export a modest $42.4 million worth of goods to the US, a small fraction considering its total foreign trade turnover, which reached an impressive $66 billion for that year. This stark contrast highlights the limited engagement of Uzbekistan in the American market. With its total trade turnover of $16 billion in 2024, Kyrgyzstan similarly struggled with exports to the US, which amounted to merely $16.7 million. This reflects a broader trend where Central Asian economies exhibit low volume exports to the US, suggesting significant barriers or challenges in establishing a foothold in this lucrative market. Tajikistan's economic performance presented an even more sobering picture. Recording a total trade turnover of $8.9 billion, the country achieved only $4.6 million...

EU-Central Asia Summit

European Investment Bank Commits €365 Million to Environmental Projects in Central Asia

At the first EU-Central Asia Summit, held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on April 4, European Investment Bank (EIB) Vice-President Kyriacos Kakouris signed four memorandums of understanding with partners in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The agreements will direct €365 million in funding and are expected to unlock up to €1 billion in investment for sustainable transport, water management, and climate resilience initiatives across the region. The EIB is the long-term lending institution of the European Union. These agreements support the EU’s Global Gateway strategy, which aims to boost private sector development, improve transport and logistics infrastructure, and strengthen water management and environmental sustainability throughout Central Asia. In Kyrgyzstan, the EIB will provide €50 million through the Kyrgyzstan State Development Bank to support infrastructure investments via the National Promotional Bank. Tajikistan will receive €100 million to develop sustainable transport infrastructure along the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor. In Uzbekistan, €175 million will be allocated to the Uzbekistan Water Implementation Center for water management and environmental sustainability projects, particularly under the Aral Sea Project, in collaboration with the French Development Agency (AFD). Additionally, Uzbekistan’s JSCB Microcredit bank will receive €40 million to bolster private sector development and to enable local financing for projects that contribute to sustainable transport and logistics connectivity. During the summit, Kakouris also signed a Host Country Agreement with Uzbekistan, establishing an EIB Regional Representation in the country to enhance the Bank’s presence in Central Asia. The EIB further announced the launch of negotiations for a framework agreement with Turkmenistan, signaling plans to begin operations there. “These agreements underscore the European Union and Central Asia’s shared commitment to deepening mutually beneficial cooperation,” said Kakouris. “As the EU’s bank, the EIB will continue playing a pivotal role in strengthening economic ties, promoting sustainability and private sector development, and enhancing infrastructure across the region. The memorandums of understanding pave the way for future financing in the transport and water sectors. Moreover, the Host Country Agreement with Uzbekistan and the launch of negotiations with Turkmenistan mark important milestones for the EU’s growing engagement in Central Asia.”