Tajikistan - The Times Of Central Asia

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Prisons

Russia Seeks Transfer of 200 Tajik Women Prisoners After Dushanbe Approval

Russia’s human rights commissioner Tatyana Moskalkova has received a positive response from Emomali Rahmon regarding the possible transfer of around 200 Tajik women currently serving sentences in Russian prisons, according to TASS. Moskalkova said she had written to the Tajik president requesting that the women be allowed to continue serving their sentences in Tajikistan on humanitarian grounds. “In each case, we must carefully weigh issues of justice, mercy, and humanism,” she said in an interview with TASS. She noted that while most cases confirm that crimes were committed, the severity of punishment should not always be maximal. “Sometimes leniency helps a person reform, repent, and change for the better. That is why we try in each case to find arguments that could support leniency, especially for women,” she said. According to Moskalkova, foreign women prisoners face additional challenges, including limited access to family visits and difficulties receiving parcels from relatives. These factors were among the reasons behind her appeal to Tajik authorities. She also pointed to broader policy developments in Russia’s penal system, citing improvements in detention conditions under the country’s penal reform strategy through 2030. Moskalkova highlighted recent legislation limiting pretrial detention for women with young children who have committed non-violent offenses. In addition, she said she has repeatedly asked courts to grant deferrals of sentences for women with children under the age of 14, thanking the judiciary for what she described as “understanding and positive decisions” in such cases. Earlier this month, Moskalkova said Russia was prepared to facilitate the transfer of more than 3,000 Uzbek nationals convicted in Russia to serve their sentences in Uzbekistan. However, she noted that the process remains stalled due to legal constraints, including Uzbekistan’s failure to ratify the 1998 Convention on the Transfer of Sentenced Persons.

Economic Growth

Why Strong Economic Growth in Central Asia Masks Underlying Risks

Central Asian countries are significantly outperforming the global average in GDP growth, largely due to differing economic models across the region. However, rapid expansion does not remove deep structural vulnerabilities. As early as March, data showed that the combined economies of Central Asian countries grew by nearly 7% in 2025 compared to the previous year. The World Bank estimates regional growth at 6.2%, while the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) places it at 6.6%. These calculations include Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan; Turkmenistan is excluded due to limited statistical transparency. By comparison, growth rates in advanced economies are much lower. The EDB expects around 1.6% growth in the U.S. and approximately 1.1% in the eurozone in 2026, while China’s economy is projected to expand by about 4.6%. Nevertheless, experts note that the region’s economic outlook remains complicated by high inflation, income inequality, and continued dependence on external factors. Investment activity and domestic demand have been the key drivers of growth, according to the EDB. Kazakhstan recorded its highest growth in 13 years (6.5%), with industry leading the expansion: mining grew by 9.4% and manufacturing by 6.4%. In 2026, the non-resource sector is expected to play a greater role. Kyrgyzstan has led the region in GDP growth for the third consecutive year: GDP grew by 11.1% in 2025 and by 9% in January 2026. In Uzbekistan, GDP increased by 7.7% in 2025 (up from 6.7% a year earlier), supported by investment, trade, services, and construction. Tajikistan’s GDP rose by 8.4% in 2025, matching the previous year’s performance. Growth continues to be driven by expanding industrial production and strong domestic demand. Early 2026 data suggest this momentum is holding. Uzbekistan’s Record In April, the World Bank highlighted Uzbekistan’s resilience to external challenges and strong growth dynamics. According to its updated report, the country’s 2025 GDP growth was revised upward by 1.5 percentage points to 7.7%. The outlook is 6.4% for 2026 and 6.7% for 2027. Key drivers include high global gold prices, investment inflows, expanded lending, and ongoing structural reforms. Rising household incomes have also played an important role, supported by remittances, which increased by 37% last year to reach $18.9 billion. By the end of 2025, Uzbekistan ranked among the fastest-growing economies in developing countries in Europe and Central Asia, alongside Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The region as a whole is experiencing its highest growth rates in 14 years. At the same time, analysts point to persistent structural constraints, including a large public sector and the dominance of state-owned enterprises, which hinder private sector development. External risks, including geopolitical instability and potential disruptions in energy and fertilizer supplies, remain significant. In 2025, Uzbekistan’s GDP exceeded €133 billion, compared to approximately €56 billion nine years earlier. Over the same period, GDP per capita rose from about €1,750 to around €3,220, nearly doubling average income levels. Investment in fixed capital increased by more than 15% year-on-year in 2025, while export value grew by over 33%. Persistently high global gold prices played a major role: export...

China

Beyond the Belt and Road: China’s New Playbook in Central Asia

In the Kyzylorda Region, near the town of Shieli, the silos and conveyor belts of a Chinese-backed plant rise out of the fine brown dust that dominates the landscape. It is the kind of project the Belt and Road was supposed to deliver in Central Asia: heavy industry, fixed capital, and a visible mark on the landscape. But it is also a reminder that China’s role in the region has become narrower, more contested, and less sweeping than the old rhetoric suggested. In photographs, the Gezhouba Cement Plant looks like a self-contained industrial island on the steppe. For nearby villagers, it became something else: a source of jobs and local prestige for some, but also of years of complaints about dust clouds and whether the state was quicker to defend a flagship Chinese-backed project than the people living beside it. Projects like the plant in Shieli also help explain why views of China across Central Asia remain mixed. Beijing is seen as a source of trade, investment, and technology, but that promise is tempered in some places by concerns over transparency, environmental costs, and who really benefits when a project arrives. China has become Central Asia’s dominant trading partner, but investment has not kept pace with the surge in commerce. The gap says a lot about how Beijing now works in the region: with a sharper focus on sectors that matter to its long-term influence. In 2025, trade in goods between China and the five Central Asian states reached $106.3 billion, up 12% year on year. Chinese exports to the region totaled $71.2 billion, while imports from Central Asia reached $35.1 billion. Trade has grown fast enough to reshape the region’s external balance, but long-term investment has been far more selective. Over 2005–2025, the five Central Asian states accounted for about 3% of China’s global overseas investment and construction total. The picture changes once direct investment is separated from trade and construction contracts. China’s FDI stock in the five Central Asian states stood at about $36 billion by mid-2025. Roughly 90% was concentrated in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The structure of that capital has also changed. Extractive industries still accounted for 46% of the portfolio, but manufacturing and energy together made up more than one third, and greenfield projects rose from 43% to 60%. China has not poured money into Central Asia on the scale once implied by early Belt and Road rhetoric. Instead, it has invested in sectors that strengthen its industrial position. Kazakhstan remains at the center of this relationship. It is China’s biggest commercial partner in Central Asia, and the main destination for Chinese capital in the region. Kazakhstan-China trade reached $43.8 billion in 2024. The country’s portfolio of projects with Chinese participation includes 224 ventures worth about $66.4 billion. Some are still at the planning stage, but the range of projects is telling. Recent developments have included a hydrogen energy technology innovation center in Almaty and a large wind farm with electricity storage. Kazakhstan still sells...

World Nomad Games

Horses, Eagles, and Fire: The Steppe Awakens as the 2026 World Nomad Games Return to Kyrgyzstan

On the shores of Lake Issyk-Kul, where mountains drop sharply into the water, and horses and cars are found in almost equal measure, Kyrgyzstan will host the World Nomad Games 2026 from August 31 to September 6, with The Times of Central Asia reporting from the ground. Since their launch in 2014, the Games have grown well beyond their origins, drawing competitors and audiences from across the world. This year’s emblem, the snow leopard, captures that idea with unusual precision. It has been adopted as the national symbol of Kyrgyzstan in recent years and has long been central to the country’s conservation diplomacy, including its role in establishing October 23 as International Snow Leopard Day. Presented as a representation of strength, clarity, and endurance, it reflects both the terrain and the mindset that fortifies the event. [caption id="attachment_46882" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: International Secretariat of the World Nomad Games[/caption] The Games have expanded beyond the region, but are now returning home again. Kyrgyzstan hosted the first three editions before they went to Turkey in 2022 and Kazakhstan in 2024. Their homecoming now carries greater international weight, reinforced by UNESCO’s support, recognizing their role in preserving intangible cultural heritage. This year’s experience is mostly set in the Issyk-Kul region, around three hours from Bishkek, where the mountainous landscape will form the backdrop to the lakeside venues. The opening and closing ceremonies are scheduled to take place in the capital’s Bishkek Arena. In Cholpon Ata, the hippodrome will host horse racing and Kok Boru, while the nearby sports complex stages wrestling competitions. The Rukh Ordo Cultural Center brings together strength events and traditional tournaments alongside parts of the cultural program. In Kyrchyn, the Ethno Village will become the core of the experience, where archery, falconry, crafts, performances, and food sit within a setting that reflects nomadic life. [caption id="attachment_46886" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Kok Boru at the Bishkek Hippodrome, 2014; image: Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Forty-plus sports disciplines will be spread across competitive and demonstrative formats, with more than 100 medals at stake. Kok Boru is fast and unforgiving, played on horseback as riders grapple over what was traditionally a headless goat carcass (now a synthetic dummy or serke), surging and colliding before hurling it into the opponent’s goal. [caption id="attachment_46885" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: International Secretariat of the World Nomad Games[/caption] Horseback archery demands precision under movement, with riders standing in the stirrups or twisting at full gallop to fire arrows at distant targets. Eagle hunting illustrates a partnership between human and bird refined over generations, as trained golden eagles launch from the arm to track and strike prey across open ground. [caption id="attachment_46887" align="aligncenter" width="1200"] Woman with a bird of prey, World Nomad Games, Astana, 2024; image: Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Wrestling styles such as Alysh and Kurash emphasize balance and control rather than brute force, with fighters gripping belts and using timing, leverage, and footwork to unbalance their opponent. The Times of Central Asia spoke with the International Secretariat of the World Nomad Games to...

Food Security

Tajikistan, Dependent on Sugar Imports, Contends with Price Surge

Tajikistan’s government has been trying to reduce or at least diversify food imports whose prices are vulnerable to regional or global shocks. But a recent surge in the cost of sugar highlights ongoing challenges for the landlocked country. Tajikistan relies on sugar imports from Russia, Belarus, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, and other countries. Last year, it imported about 190,000 tons. Now, as oil prices fluctuate because of conflict in the Middle East, Tajikistan is among many countries, including its neighbors in Central Asia, that are struggling with uncertainty over the international energy trade. The country has faced similar cycles in the past. In 2024, Russia announced a ban on grain and sugar exports to some trading partners to ensure its own food needs as it grappled with sanctions and other economic pressures related to the war in Ukraine. Kazakhstan imposed a similar ban on exports as supply tightened. The result was that the sugar price in Tajikistan jumped by about 25% over the previous year. Those export bans were eventually lifted, and the sugar price stabilized and even dropped in Tajikistan in 2025. Now the country faces another bout of price volatility as concerns mount following U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation in the region. U.S. and Iranian negotiators failed to reach an agreement in recent talks, and the International Monetary Fund warns that oil market disruptions could slow global growth and spur inflation. The price of a kilogram of sugar in Tajikistan has increased from 9–11 somoni ($0.80–$1) at the end of March to 12–14 somoni ($1.10–$1.30) this month, according to Asia-Plus, a media group in Tajikistan. It said the wholesale price of a 50-kilogram bag had risen from 380–400 somoni ($34–$36) to more than 500 somoni (more than $45) during the same period. Those are increases of at least 25%, similar to the 2024 jump in cost. The Food and Agriculture Organization, a United Nations agency, said the global sugar price index, which measures the monthly change in cost, was up 7.2% in March, and that the Middle East conflict was contributing to upward pressure on prices. “Nevertheless, the overall increase in world sugar prices was contained by the generally favorable global supply outlook for the 2025/26 season, supported by good harvest progress in India and Thailand,” the agency said.

Climate Change

Central Asia’s Climate Risks Could Cost Up to 130% of GDP by 2080

By 2080, climate change is expected to have a profound impact on the economies of Central Asian countries, with potential losses ranging from 20% to 130% of GDP. The most severe effects are projected for mountainous nations. These estimates were presented at a CAREC technology forum by Iskandar Abdullaev, a senior research fellow at the International Water Management Institute in Uzbekistan. According to Abdullaev, climate change is no longer solely an environmental issue but an increasingly significant economic factor. Key risks include droughts and water scarcity, floods, heatwaves, and glacier melt. The projected economic impact varies across the region. Tajikistan could face losses of between 80% and 130% of GDP, Kyrgyzstan 70% to 120%, Kazakhstan 40% to 80%, Uzbekistan 30% to 45%, and Turkmenistan 20% to 60%. Abdullaev emphasized that mountainous countries – Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan – are particularly vulnerable, as climate change directly affects water resources. Glacier melt reduces river flows, creating challenges for both energy production and water supply. Droughts and extreme heat are already placing pressure on agriculture, with declining crop yields and reduced pasture productivity. Without adaptation measures, the region’s long-term sustainability could be at risk. Experts stress that mitigation and adaptation efforts are essential to reduce these risks. These include modernizing irrigation systems, adopting climate-resilient agricultural technologies, and expanding renewable energy capacity. This is not the only warning. According to the World Bank, natural disasters are already causing significant economic damage in Central Asia. Losses from extreme events, including floods and earthquakes, can reach up to 6% of GDP, with earthquakes alone accounting for up to $2 billion in damages. At the same time, countries in the region face substantial financing gaps following major disasters. In Tajikistan, this gap could reach up to $1.5 billion. Experts warn that climate change is likely to intensify these risks, further increasing the economic burden on the region.