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West Monitors Syria for Plans of Jihadis, Some From Central Asia

Some counterterrorism experts in the West are assessing whether the ouster of Bashar Assad´s regime in Syria will lead to a recalibration of the Islamic militant groups that opposed him, some of which include especially hardline recruits from Central Asia. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian group that led an offensive into Aleppo and Damascus and forced Assad to flee in a span of two weeks, is trying to turn to governance with a relatively moderate image even though it was associated with Al-Qaeda earlier in the Syrian civil war and is labeled a terrorist organization on some Western lists. It’s too early to say whether HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani will stick to a message of tolerance or can make it work in a fractured country with gutted institutions, but there are signs that some jihadis object to his message of inclusiveness. “Many of them are Central Asians and they may look to go somewhere else. I think we’re inevitably going to see a certain amount of splintering from what happens in Syria,” said Colin Clarke, a terrorism researcher and author of After the Caliphate. At an Atlantic Council event in Washington on Wednesday, Clarke said there is an “interplay” between religious extremism in Afghanistan and Syria, and that a number of groups with Central Asian members have those connections. Clarke said he will be watching to see whether the connections grow following Assad’s abrupt exit after more than two decades in power. Some estimates put the number of Islamic militants who have traveled from Central Asia to Syria and Iraq over the years at around several thousand, though the figures vary and are difficult to confirm. Many joined the Islamic State group, which was defeated in Iraq and is much diminished in Syria although the U.S. recently carried out air strikes to prevent any resurgence by the group amid Syria’s current upheaval. One jihadist group with Central Asia links that collaborated with HTS in the successful campaign against Assad is Katibat al Tawhid wal Jihad, designated a terror group by the U.S. State Department in 2022. The group carried out a Saint Petersburg, Russia metro attack in 2017 that killed 14 passengers and injured 50 others, as well as a suicide car bombing of the Chinese embassy in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan in 2016 that injured three people, according to the U.S. Katibat al Tawhid wal Jihad is comprised mainly of Uzbek, Tajik and Kyrgyz combatants, according to Daniele Garofalo Monitoring, which traces jihadist propaganda and military activity. There are an estimated 400-500 fighters in the group. Another HTS ally is Katibat Mujaheddin Ghuroba Division, which has between 200 and 400 fighters, according to the Garofalo site. Many are Uzbeks, Tajiks and Uyghurs, though the group also has Arab militants. There is also Jaysh al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar, which dates to the early stages of the Syrian civil war that began in 2011. The jihadist group is believed to have 400-500 fighters, mostly Chechens, Tajiks, Dagestanis, Azerbaijanis, Kazakhs and Ukrainians, as well as...

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EDB Thinks Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan Will Show Strongest Growth in 2025

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecasts that Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will lead regional economic growth in 2025. According to the bank’s Macroeconomic Forecast, published on November 5, GDP growth rates for Kyrgyzstan are given at 8.7%, Tajikistan at 8.4%, and Kazakhstan at 5.5%. For comparison, the corresponding figure for Russia is just 2.4%. Tajikistan’s robust growth is attributed to rising prices for gold and other export metals, coupled with reduced costs for imported energy and food products. These factors are expected to enhance economic efficiency by freeing up funds for consumption and investment. Additionally, the country’s rapidly growing population remains a central driver of its economic expansion. Similarly, Kyrgyzstan’s strong economic performance will be fueled by industrial development, high investment activity, and resilient domestic demand. However, in both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, industrial growth and investment activity are anticipated to lag behind GDP expansion. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are expected to grow above the global average, supported by steady exports and robust domestic demand. Kazakhstan’s economy will benefit from increased oil production, large-scale government infrastructure projects, and supportive fiscal policies. The EDB predicts that inflation across the region will gradually decline, from 7.9% in 2024 to 6.4% in 2025. High interest rates will remain a key tool in controlling inflation, with rates expected at 7.3% in Kazakhstan by the end of 2025. Inflation in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is projected to remain within target levels, reaching 5.0% and 5.8%, respectively. These lower inflation rates are expected to support continued economic stability in both countries.

Central Asia Environment Tajikistan Life & Culture Tajikistan Tajikistan Environment

Endangered Great Bustard Named Tajikistan’s Bird of the Year

The great bustard, also known as the red-breasted bustard, has been named the bird of the year for 2025 in Tajikistan. The decision, announced on December 11, followed a vote by the National Academy of Sciences. The rare bird, locally called dugdogi zebo, is listed in both the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List and the Red Book of Tajikistan, signifying its endangered status. Since 2007, Tajikistan has annually designated a bird of the year to raise awareness about avian conservation. Previous honorees include an owl, corncrake, pheasant, paradise flycatcher, Tibetan eagle, peregrine falcon, white stork, and oriole. The common turtle dove has held the title this year. The great bustard resides in Tajikistan as both a breeding and migratory species. Experts estimate that only 23 breeding pairs inhabit the country, though the population temporarily rises to 50-60 individuals during migration periods. Slightly larger than a domestic hen, male great bustards have a body length of 65-75 cm and weigh between 1.8 and 3.2 kg, significantly smaller than the common bustard, which can weigh up to 15 kg. Omnivorous by nature, the bird’s diet includes fruits, seeds, leaves, flowers, locusts, beetles, and small reptiles. Known for their cautious behavior, great bustards avoid human contact and prefer to hide or flee when threatened. Their average lifespan in the wild is approximately 20 years. Globally, the International Bustard Conservation Foundation, supported by the UAE government, leads efforts to protect the species. To date, the foundation has bred over 480,000 bustards in captivity and released 285,000 into the wild. In Kazakhstan, the foundation releases great bustards into the wild while simultaneously issuing hunting licenses for $1,280 per bird, catering to Arab hunters. Uzbekistan hosts an Emirati conservation center in the Kyzylkum Desert, dedicated to breeding and protecting the species, as well as releasing them into their natural habitat. Despite these international initiatives, Tajikistan has yet to leverage Arab funding or hunting tourism to support conservation efforts. Utilizing such resources could bolster the great bustard population while generating additional economic benefits.

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Central Asia Braces for Return of Radical Islamists Amid Syrian Turmoil

According to experts, the recent collapse of President Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria raises concerns about potential destabilization in Central Asia. This development may force regional governments to repatriate citizens who were lured by Islamist propaganda, while the future of the Astana format negotiations on Syria remains uncertain. The swift coup d'état in Syria saw opposition forces capture Damascus and much of the country within days. Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow, leaving a chaotic landscape dominated by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, often described as a successor to ISIS and Al-Qaeda. The situation has plunged Syria into further instability. The Impact of Operation Zhusan Kazakhstan has firsthand experience dealing with the repercussions of Syria's instability. Between 2013 and 2017, hundreds of Kazakh citizens succumbed to Islamist propaganda, crossing borders illegally to join the conflict, often with their families. In response to the humanitarian crisis, Kazakhstan launched Operation Zhusan ("Wormwood") in January 2019 to repatriate citizens trapped in Syria. The operation, conducted in five stages and completed by February 2021, repatriated 607 citizens, 37 men, 157 women and 413 children (34 of whom were orphans). The government set up a rehabilitation center near Aktau on the Caspian Sea to provide treatment, restore documents, and offer vocational training for adults and education for children. All 37 repatriated men were detained and later convicted of terrorism-related activities, receiving sentences ranging between 6 and 14 years, whilst 18 women faced prosecution. Despite the operation’s success, many in Kazakhstan fear the returnees and their children might spread radical ideologies within the country. Lessons from the Region Other Central Asian countries have also grappled with the challenge of repatriating citizens from Syria. Bakhtiyor Babadjanov, an expert from the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under Uzbekistan’s president, detailed the experiences of Uzbek women lured to conflict zones. These women often found themselves deceived and abandoned in dire conditions, as described in an interview. "The 'happy caliphate' turned out to be a myth," Babadjanov explained, recounting stories of women and children abandoned without food or shelter during battles in Mosul. Survivors reported forced marriages, child abuse, and exploitation under the guise of religious duty. The Uncertain Future of the Astana Process Another significant connection between Central Asia and Syria has been the Astana process, a series of negotiations aimed at resolving the Syrian conflict. Since 2017, Kazakhstan has hosted 22 rounds of talks, including discussions on hostages, missing persons, and settlement efforts. However, the recent escalation in Syria casts doubt on the process. In late November and early December, armed opposition groups launched a large-scale offensive, capturing key cities, including Aleppo and Damascus. Despite this upheaval, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisted the Astana process remains relevant as a platform for dialogue and consultation, notwithstanding the fact that Assad is now in Moscow. Heightened Risks of Destabilization Experts in Kazakhstan and Central Asia have warned that the fall of Assad's regime could lead to prolonged anarchy, ethnic and religious conflicts, and a refugee crisis. Political scientist,...

Central Asia Uzbekistan Life & Culture Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan Tops Central Asia with Region’s Highest Pensions

Kazakhstan leads Central Asia in pension payments, with the highest average pension in the region, according to Kaktus.media. Kazakh citizens receive an average of approximately 89,275 KZT ($175.30) per month, as reported by the region's statistical agencies. Kyrgyzstan holds second place, with an average pension of 9,379 KGS ($108) at the end of 2023. Uzbekistan follows with an average of 1.2 million UZS ($93.40), while Turkmenistan ranks fourth, offering an average of 300 TMT ($85.60). Tajikistan reports the lowest pension payments in the region, where pensioners receive just an average of 370 TJS ($33.80) per month. Kazakhstan has also announced measures to further support its pensioners. Beginning January 1, 2025, the country will implement an annual indexation of solidarity pensions by 8.5%. Additionally, basic pensions and social benefits will increase by 6.5% annually, a move designed to improve the welfare of retirees.

Education Central Asia Tajikistan Life & Culture Life & Culture Tajikistan Business & Economy

Tajik Migrants Embrace Free English Courses to Pursue Jobs in Europe

Tajikistan has launched a free English online course for migrant workers aiming for employment in Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The course, developed in partnership with the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the Smarthub educational platform, is part of the UK Seasonal Worker Program. This initiative provides participants with an opportunity to enhance their language skills at no cost. According to the IOM, over 200 participants have already completed the program. The curriculum covers essential communication skills, ranging from basic phrases and personal introductions to professional vocabulary necessary for workplace interactions. This initiative comes as Tajikistan explores alternative destinations for labor migration, prompted by stricter migration rules in Russia and Western sanctions limiting access to its labor market. Increasing numbers of Tajik workers are finding employment in Germany, Poland, the Baltic States, Romania, and the United Kingdom. In 2023, approximately 1,000 Tajik citizens traveled to the UK for seasonal agricultural work, including fruit and vegetable harvesting.