Tajikistan Local Politics - The Times Of Central Asia

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Explosion Near Kyrgyz-Tajik Border Leaves Two Injured

On January 5, an explosion occurred in the Kyrgyz village of Arka-2, near Kyrgyzstan's border with Tajikistan. The incident was reported by the Information and Communications Department of the Border Service under the State Committee for National Security (SCNS). According to preliminary investigations, the explosion happened while the homeowner, identified as N.A., was cleaning under his porch, where old construction materials and metal objects had been stored. During the cleaning, N.A. discovered an unknown explosive device, believed to be a shell, which then detonated. The Border Guard Service noted that N.A.'s house had previously been damaged in 2022 as a result of shelling during cross-border clashes. The explosion left N.A. and his 12-year-old daughter, who was with him at the time, with shrapnel injuries. Both victims were taken to the hospital, where they received medical treatment and are now reported to be in stable condition. Following the explosion, Border Patrol engineers quickly secured the area. Law enforcement officials have launched an extensive investigation to determine the origin and circumstances surrounding the device. On the same day, a meeting was held between representatives of the law enforcement agencies of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The Tajik side was informed about the incident, and the border service issued a call for heightened vigilance among residents of border areas. Citizens were urged not to handle or investigate suspicious objects but to immediately report them to border units or law enforcement agencies. The explosion highlights lingering risks in border regions between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which have been prone to tensions and periodic violence in recent years. Efforts to strengthen security and cooperation between the two countries remain critical in preventing further incidents and ensuring the safety of border communities.

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Rahmon Unveils Tajikistan’s Roadmap for Economic Growth and Diplomacy

On December 28, Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon delivered his annual address, titled “On Major Dimensions of Tajikistan’s Domestic and Foreign Policy,” during a joint session of both chambers of the Tajik Parliament. The president outlined key priorities for implementing domestic and foreign policy and advancing various sectors of Tajikistan's economy, including industry, energy, agriculture, transport, investment, entrepreneurship, education, science, healthcare, and social protection. Rahmon directed the government to draft a "Medium-Term Development Program for 2026-2030" by the end of 2025. Highlighting the need for innovation, he proposed declaring 2025-2030 the “Years of Development of the Digital Economy and Innovation.” Additionally, he announced plans to establish a University of Innovation and Digital Technologies in Kulob, building upon the existing Institute of Technology and Innovation Management. Rahmon noted significant progress in industrialization, with Tajikistan’s industrial production nearly doubling in the past five years. This growth included the creation of more than 2,040 industrial enterprises and 74,000 jobs. In the road and transport sector, Rahmon underscored the importance of transforming Tajikistan into a transit hub. Ongoing modernization and reconstruction efforts have already improved the country’s ranking in the World Economic Forum’s road quality index, rising from 50th to 44th among 165 countries. Rahmon highlighted that 43% of Tajikistan's 2024 state budget is allocated to the social sector. Over the past five years, public-sector wages have increased four times, doubling overall during this period. He instructed the government to further raise salaries for employees in education, healthcare, social protection, culture, sports, government agencies, law enforcement, and the military. Employment remains a strategic priority. Rahmon noted that 4.1 million jobs have been created since independence, and he directed regional and local authorities to generate an additional 1.4 million jobs across all sectors of the economy in the next five years. On foreign policy, Rahmon reiterated Tajikistan’s commitment to its “open doors” approach, expressing readiness to strengthen bilateral and multilateral relations. He emphasized the importance of constructive engagement with international and regional organizations, including the United Nations, international financial institutions, and development partners. Rahmon’s address outlined a comprehensive roadmap for Tajikistan’s development, combining innovation, infrastructure, and social investment with an open and cooperative foreign policy. His directives reflect a vision aimed at fostering economic growth, improving living standards, and enhancing the country's position on the global stage.

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Activist in Exile: Tajikistan Pressures Family Over Political Dissent

Mahmadsobir Abdukakhor, an activist associated with the banned Group 24 in Tajikistan, has accused law enforcement agencies in the Rasht District of pressuring his family. According to Abdukahkhor, authorities are demanding that his relatives persuade him to renounce his political activities and return to Tajikistan. “They came to my parents and brother, demanding that they convince me to return and ask for forgiveness from the authorities. But my parents are not responsible for my actions,” Abdukahkhor told Radio Ozodi on December 16. Abdukahkhor stated that such tactics are not new but reaffirmed that he would not stop his political activities or “repent,” as he does not trust the authorities’ assurances. “If I go back, I will either be killed like Umarali Kuwwatov or arrested like Sukhrob Zafar,” he said, referring to other opposition figures. Attempts by Radio Ozodi to obtain comments from Rasht District law enforcement agencies were unsuccessful. Tajik authorities have placed Mahmadsobir Abdukahkhor and other members of Group 24 — a political movement recognized as an extremist organization and banned in the country — on a wanted list. Abdukahkhor initially moved to Russia in 2012, where he ran a business and became involved in the movement before relocating to Europe. In 2014, Tajikistan amended its Criminal Code, allowing individuals accused of extremism to be exonerated if they return and “sincerely repent.” President Emomali Rahmon instructed law enforcement agencies to facilitate the return of such citizens. However, human rights activists claim that despite promises of amnesty, some returnees — including former members of ISIS and the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRP) — were subsequently arrested and imprisoned.

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Central Asia’s Population Surpasses 80 Million, With Rapid Growth Expected to Continue

The population of Central Asia has reached a historic milestone, exceeding 80 million people as of December 2024. Projections indicate this figure could surpass 100 million by 2050, highlighting the region’s rapid demographic growth and the challenges it brings for sustainable development. Rapid Population Growth According to the Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) macroeconomic forecast, Central Asia’s population has grown by nearly one and a half times over the past 24 years, increasing by approximately one million people annually. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan lead the region in demographic growth. Tajikistan’s population reached 10 million at the beginning of 2024, marking an 80% increase since 1991. Uzbekistan, the region’s most populous country, has maintained an annual growth rate of 1.1–1.2%, with its population now exceeding 36.7 million. The region as a whole has a youthful demographic profile, with an average age of 26.2 years. Diverging Population Estimates PopulationPyramid.net estimates Central Asia’s 2024 population at over 82 million. The discrepancy with other sources likely arises from differing methodologies and data collection techniques. Despite this, all sources agree that the population has surpassed the 80 million mark. Future Projections and Challenges Central Asia’s population is expected to exceed 100 million by 2050. However, rapid demographic growth presents serious challenges for the region. Key concerns include: • Sustainable Economic Development: Ensuring that economic growth keeps pace with population increases. • Job Creation: Addressing the needs of a growing labor force. • Quality of Life: Improving access to education, healthcare, and essential services. Managing these issues will be a top priority for state policies in the coming decades, as governments seek to balance population growth with sustainable development.

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A Final Deal Along Central Asia’s Deadliest Border

It took some 33 years, but on December 4, Kyrgyz and Tajik officials reached a final agreement on delimitation of the last sections of their 972-kilometer border. It is a relief for the entire Central Asian region. In those 33 years the five Central Asian countries (including Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) have been independent, the only open conflicts between the armed forces of two Central Asian countries happened between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In the southern Kyrgyz city of Batken on December 4, Kyrgyz security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev and Tajik counterpart Saimumin Yatimov announced an agreement that Tajik state news agency Khovar said “fully completed the delimitation of the remaining sections of the Tajik-Kyrgyz state border.” Most of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border runs through the Pamir Mountains. The eastern part, approximately two-thirds of the common frontier, passes through remote and sparsely inhabited areas. Agreement on where the dividing line between the two countries was easy to reach in this section. The remaining one-third of the border in the west proved far more difficult to find compromises. [caption id="attachment_26293" align="aligncenter" width="2256"] Road near the Kyrgyz village of Ak-Sai. On one side of the road is Tajikistan, the other side, Kyrgyzstan; image: Bruce Pannier[/caption] Kyrgyz and Tajiks are two of the oldest peoples in Central Asia. Their ancestors lived in what is now the border area many hundreds of years before there were any borders. The Soviet Union changed that when it created the Kyrgyz and Tajik Soviet Socialist Republics, not only drawing lines on a map, which were redrawn more than once, but also including enclaves on either side of the border. Roads in the area zigzagged back and forth, one minute through Kyrgyzstan, and few minutes later through Tajikistan, over and over again. As border tensions began to appear toward the end of the 2000-2010 period, both countries started building roads to avoid crossing into the neighboring state, but the terrain is rugged, limiting possibilities for alternate routes. Also, new road construction is expensive and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are both poor countries. [caption id="attachment_26294" align="aligncenter" width="2256"] The entrance to Tajikistan's Vorukh enclave; image: Bruce Pannier[/caption] The lone road leading from Batken to the Kyrgyz village of Ak-Sai and the Tajik enclave of Vorukh weaves through both countries several times and in some places, the road is the border. Visible from any village in this area are the snow-capped mountains, but down in the valleys, water has always been a problem. Like the roads, small rivers and canals meander across both sides of the border, and unsurprisingly, water use is a major source of tensions and has been a significant obstacle in deciding where the border should be. The first hints of trouble came after 2000 and involved petty vandalism, usually children throwing rocks at passing vehicles with license plates from the neighboring country. This escalated and after 2010, when incidents of physical altercations between members of border communities started, followed by vandalism targeting homes and businesses in border villages. Since much of...

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Tajik Lawyer Jailed After Exposing Alleged Corruption in Prosecutor’s Office

In Tajikistan, 74-year-old lawyer Faizi Oli, also known as Faizali Yuldoshev, has been sentenced to 2.5 years in prison after raising allegations of corruption within the prosecutor’s office. The Sino District Court in Dushanbe delivered its verdict on November 29. Oli was found guilty of “knowingly making a false denunciation” against employees of the prosecutor's office. However, he asserts that he merely exercised his right to file complaints with anti-corruption bodies, the Security Council, and the presidential administration, detailing what he described as evidence of corruption. A Controversial Case According to Oli’s lawyer, his complaints should have prompted an investigation, not legal proceedings against him. The court considered his advanced age when issuing the sentence, which fell below the minimum term of five years prescribed under Article 346 of the Tajik Criminal Code. The prosecution had sought a six-year prison term. Oli was arrested immediately after the verdict. Over the course of the five-month trial, he consistently maintained that the charges were baseless, and that filing complaints with the authorities is a legal right. This is not the first time Oli has been involved in a high-profile case; he previously defended his colleague, Saidnuriddin Shamsiddinov, who was sentenced to 8.5 years in prison on similar charges of false denunciation. At that time, Oli stressed the right of citizens to address grievances directly to the president and the Prosecutor General’s Office, a principle he believes is now being criminalized. Broader Context International human rights organizations have frequently criticized Tajikistan for targeting lawyers and human rights defenders. Many prominent figures, including Buzurgmehr Yorov, are serving lengthy prison sentences under controversial circumstances. Oli, known for his outspoken social media presence and comments on government operations, believes his activism may have influenced the court’s decision. He has announced plans to appeal the verdict after receiving the court’s written decision. The Prosecutor General's Office declined to comment on the case.