Tajikistan Local Politics - The Times Of Central Asia

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Poverty

Poverty in Central Asia: Who Is Living and Who Is Just Surviving

A new analysis by Ranking.kz reveals that Kazakhstan currently has the most favorable poverty indicators among Central Asian countries, while Tajikistan records the highest levels of deprivation. The findings also reflect significant shifts in global poverty estimates following a revision of the World Bank’s methodology. According to Our World in Data, by 2024, the global number of people living in extreme poverty had risen to 817 million, an increase of 125 million compared to previous figures. However, this jump does not signal worsening global conditions. Instead, it stems from a change in measurement criteria. In June 2024, the World Bank raised the international poverty line from $2.15 to $3 per day in purchasing power parity (PPP), based on 2021 prices. This methodological update expanded the scope of people counted as poor, even as real incomes among the poorest rose by approximately 16%. Sub-Saharan Africa continues to bear the brunt of global poverty. Of the 30 countries with the highest poverty rates, 24 are located on the continent. In Central Asia, Tajikistan ranks as the region’s poorest nation, with 61.3% of its population living on less than $3 per day. In contrast, the poverty rate stands at just 2.74% in Kyrgyzstan, 2.72% in Uzbekistan, and 1.93% in Armenia. Kazakhstan reports the region’s lowest rate of extreme poverty; just 0.04% of the population lives below the international threshold. Data for Turkmenistan is not available. According to Kazakhstan’s National Statistics Bureau, the share of citizens earning less than the cost of the basic food basket declined from 0.2% in 2023 to 0.1% in 2024. For the first time, the gap between urban and rural poverty disappeared; previously, rural areas had higher rates. In absolute terms, 16,500 people lived below the food minimum in the first quarter of 2025. The proportion of the population earning less than the national subsistence minimum also decreased, falling from 5.2% in 2023 to 5% in 2024. The breakdown shows 3.8% in cities and 6.9% in villages. The total number of people below the subsistence minimum dropped to 1 million. As of early 2025, the figure had improved further to 4.5%, with the minimum raised to 52,500 tenge (approximately $98) per capita. In terms of daily consumption, Kazakhstani citizens spent an average of $7 per day in 2024. Based on World Bank data, the international dollar was equivalent to 160.93 tenge, reflecting the amount needed in Kazakhstan to purchase a comparable basket of goods and services to that of $1 in the United States.

Asylum

Tajikistan’s Ombudsman Criticizes Violations of Refugee Rights

Tajikistan’s Human Rights Commissioner has released a 2024 report highlighting ongoing violations of the rights of refugees and asylum seekers, including challenges in securing legal status and accessing essential services. According to the report, refugees and migrants face systemic barriers to obtaining official status and temporary registration, as well as difficulties integrating into society, finding employment, and accessing education. As of the end of 2024, 10,753 refugees and asylum seekers were registered in Tajikistan, comprising 2,670 families. Among them, 9,424 individuals (2,140 families) held refugee status, while 1,329 (530 families) were awaiting decisions on their asylum applications. The majority, 6,774 people, or 63%, were Afghan nationals. In 2024, 2,280 individuals were issued refugee certificates, and another 2,591 received temporary registration. Four applicants were denied refugee status on grounds of submitting "unfounded or false information." The report did not disclose the nationalities of those denied. The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported similar figures for 2024, citing 10,381 registered refugees and asylum seekers in Tajikistan. This marks a decline from 2022, when the UN estimated the number of Afghan asylum seekers in the country at around 14,000. The Ombudsman’s report also noted that several Afghan asylum seekers were expelled from Tajikistan in 2024 for violating residency rules. Cited reasons included wearing a beard “against the rules,” inappropriate clothing, alcohol consumption, and political discussions on social media. Interior Minister Ramazon Rakhimzoda defended the deportations, stating in the summer of 2024 that all actions were taken in accordance with national law. “Although they had legal residence, if they violate the law, they are expelled,” he said, adding that all decisions were made within the existing legal framework. Tajikistan accepted its first wave of Afghan refugees in 2021, following the Taliban’s return to power. At the time, authorities acknowledged that the lack of dedicated shelters posed a major challenge. In August 2025, the head of the Emergency Situations Committee said there was no significant threat of a new mass influx of refugees and that previously accommodated families had been resettled across the country. Most Afghan refugees are currently living in the city of Vahdat and the Jabbor Rasulov district.

Domestic Development

Central Asia and Regional Integration: Logistics, Water, Energy

Central Asia is undergoing a profound transformation, where questions of domestic development and the region’s ability to act in a coordinated way are coming to the forefront. For many years, Central Asian states were viewed as fragmented, each pursuing separate strategies that often put them in competition. Today, however, shared challenges and growing interdependence are making gradual convergence increasingly likely. The region now confronts common pressures such as water scarcity, energy imbalances, environmental degradation, and the fallout of instability in Afghanistan -- issues that no single country can effectively address in isolation. Increasingly, regional platforms such as the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) are being leveraged to mediate water-energy tradeoffs, while joint initiatives in transport, transit, and energy infrastructure foster new integration. Moreover, leading actors like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are pushing coordinated strategies -- modernizing rail and aviation links, coordinating transboundary water allocations, and exploring nuclear cooperation -- that point toward a more interconnected regional future. Shared Challenges and Points of Convergence The region faces problems that no country can solve alone. These include water shortages, energy imbalances, environmental risks, and instability in Afghanistan. Such challenges can be seen as both threats and opportunities, since they also represent areas of overlapping interest. Joint action in these fields can deliver more than fragmented national strategies. Water is particularly important, remaining one of the most sensitive issues in interstate relations. Yet it also offers opportunities for coordinated action through existing regional platforms, such as the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia. The “water for energy” model is increasingly seen as a practical tool, already under discussion and applied in bilateral and multilateral projects. Environmental issues are similarly shared. The disappearance of the Aral Sea, land degradation, air pollution, and glacier melt create threats that transcend national borders. Joint monitoring, data exchange, and coordinated adaptation measures, particularly within the United Nations Regional Centre for the Sustainable Development Goals for Central Asia and Afghanistan, opened in August 2025 in Almaty, could become a new direction for regional cooperation. Afghanistan remains another risk factor that affects the security of the entire region. At the same time, transportation and energy projects linking Central Asia with South Asia through Afghan territory can turn a challenge into an opportunity. Reducing instability and integrating Afghanistan into regional trade and transit networks serves the interests of all Central Asian states. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan as leading forces To understand how closer integration might work in practice, it is useful to examine the strategies of the region’s two key players: Astana and Tashkent. The major agreements concluded by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with the United States in transport and aviation should be viewed not as isolated deals, but as evidence of the complementary strengths of the two largest economies in Central Asia. Kazakhstan signed its largest locomotive contract to date with U.S. company Wabtec, a $4.2 billion agreement for 300 TE33A freight locomotives to be assembled at the Wabtec Kazakhstan plant in Astana, along with servicing support. This will modernize...

Social Media

Tajikistan Debates Social Media Ban for Children Under 14

A controversial proposal in Tajikistan to ban social media use for children under the age of 14 has sparked public and expert debate. While many agree that the issue requires urgent attention, critics argue that education, digital literacy, and parental involvement offer more effective solutions than blanket prohibitions. Parliamentary Push for Stricter Controls The initiative was introduced by lawmaker Dilnoza Ahmadzoda in an article in Narodnaya Gazeta. She proposed banning access to social media for children under 14 and requiring written parental consent for adolescents aged 14 to 17. Ahmadzoda pointed out that amendments to the Law on the Protection of Children’s Rights were already passed earlier this year, targeting false and harmful content. However, she contends that these changes do not go far enough. “It is necessary to introduce further changes to ensure that children’s and teenagers’ use of social media is under control,” Ahmadzoda said. Expert Concerns: "A Ban Is Not the Solution" Experts caution that an outright ban may do more harm than good. Media literacy specialist Rustam Gulov warned that prohibitions often increase curiosity and drive youth online behavior underground. “A ban is not the solution. If you forbid it, interest will only grow, and young people will find ways to hide their activity. Such measures push them backward in terms of technological development. Control is more effective,” Gulov said. He noted that while platforms already impose age restrictions, children frequently bypass them using false birthdates or by accessing accounts through their parents’ devices. Gulov recommended closer collaboration with companies such as Meta to establish more effective content controls. He also advocated for the inclusion of media literacy education in school programs. “Children should learn from an early age how to use the internet and social networks responsibly and how to distinguish false or harmful information,” he said. Another major concern, according to Gulov, is the lack of quality digital content in literary Tajik. As a result, many young users switch to Russian-language platforms. “Social networks can serve as an educational tool, if there is enough quality content in Tajik,” he added. Public Opinion in Dushanbe Reactions among residents of the capital are mixed. Some favor tight restrictions, while others emphasize the potential benefits of social media in education and personal development. Psychologist Nigina Mamadjonova opposes a complete ban but underscores the importance of parental responsibility. “This is primarily the responsibility of parents. Unfortunately, most of them do not take it seriously,” she said. Mamadjonova criticized the widespread practice of giving smartphones to children “for quick peace and quiet” without supervising their activity. She warned that this leaves children vulnerable to cyberbullying, manipulation, and online predators. She also argued that preschoolers should not use phones at all, as screen time isolates them from physical activity and social interaction. For older children, she supports promoting digital literacy and steering them toward constructive online content. Mixed Results Abroad Other countries have implemented similar restrictions with varying degrees of success. In Australia, minors under 16 are prohibited from using platforms...

Cotton

Central Asia’s Cotton Harvest: Between Reform, Coercion, and Economic Strain

The 2025 cotton harvest is underway across Central Asia, revealing the region’s ongoing struggle to reconcile long-promised reforms with persistent coercion and deepening economic pressure. Once the crown jewel of Soviet central planning, cotton, long dubbed “white gold”, remains a politically sensitive and economically vital crop from Turkmenistan to Tajikistan. Turkmenistan: Forced Mobilization Persists In Turkmenistan, mass mobilization for the cotton harvest continues largely unchanged. Chronicles of Turkmenistan reported that during a September cabinet meeting, President Serdar Berdimuhamedov ordered all regions to begin picking on September 10. Just two days earlier, the Ministry of Health had instructed medical institutions to send doctors, nurses, orderlies, and even technical staff to the fields, each assigned a daily quota of 45 kilograms. In the town of Turkmenabat, hospital workers said doctors were expected to go to the fields immediately after overnight shifts. Those who refuse must hire substitutes at their own expense, paying about 50 manats ($14) per day. As a result, up to two-thirds of monthly salaries are spent covering these unofficial harvest duties. While younger staff are dispatched to the fields, older employees are left to maintain hospital operations with minimal support. Uzbekistan: Reform, but Lingering Coercion Uzbekistan, by contrast, has officially ended Soviet-style forced labor. The government abolished child and public-sector mobilization, scrapped state cotton quotas in 2020, and partnered with the International Labour Organization (ILO) to monitor the transition. In March 2022, the Cotton Campaign, a global coalition of rights groups, unions, and apparel brands, lifted its boycott of Uzbek cotton, citing the end of systemic forced labor. The campaign, which began in 2011, had gained the support of more than 330 global brands, including H&M and Zara. Yet coercion has not entirely disappeared. In a recent video published by Kun.uz, Dilfuza Tashmatova, deputy hokim (governor) for family and women’s affairs in the Surkhandarya region's Sariosiyo district, was seen berating mahalla (local governance body) employees for failing to recruit enough pickers. She demanded that each “women’s activist” find five to ten additional laborers, totaling 150 people, and threatened dismissal for non-compliance. “Are you even a woman? Shameless! Unscrupulous! If you don’t want to work, then leave!” she shouted from a cotton field. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, approximately 70% of Uzbekistan’s cotton is still harvested by hand, despite recent gains in mechanization. Labor shortages have plagued the past two harvests as fewer people are willing to take on the physically demanding work for low wages. Mahalla councils are often pressured to mobilize unemployed or low-income residents. Following public backlash, Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Poverty Reduction and Employment fined Tashmatova 20.6 million UZS (about $1,660) under Article 51 of the Administrative Code, which prohibits forced labor. From Soviet Monoculture to Market Reforms Uzbekistan’s long history of forced cotton labor dates back to its designation as the Soviet Union’s cotton monoculture. For decades, students, teachers, and medical staff were sent into the fields to meet state quotas. After independence, the system endured until international scrutiny spurred reforms. The ILO hailed...

Food Security

Melon Pyramids and Empty Pantries: Tajik and Turkmen Feasts Amid Everyday Shortages

Pyramids of various kinds of melons, fruits laid across the ground to form intricate, traditional patterns, as well as an abundance of fruit, dried fruit, nuts, and bread overflowing from tables, and even fountains, surrounding the edible ground arrangement, and grapes hanging from poles. As an advertisement for national products, a background for international events, or a gift for an ally, Tajikistan is gaining fame for elaborate displays of fruit. It is an amazing sight, with fruits and nuts arranged in patterns that cover large areas of the pavilions and gardens where foreign guests are being entertained. However, as good as these lavish presentations look and taste, these cornucopias are being exhibited in some of Central Asia’s poorest countries, and, unsurprisingly, there has been some discontent and some scandals. For Sale On August 16-17, there was an exhibition of Tajikistan’s products and crafts in the Kazakh capital, Astana, with melon pyramids taking center stage in an exhibition that also featured “over a thousand tons of products: fresh fruits and vegetables, nuts, [and] dried fruits.“It was a return performance for the Tajik “masters” who arrange the exhibitions. Astana hosted a fair of Tajik products in August 2023 that drew a big crowd, some of whom were overly anxious to get their hands on the goods. Dozens of people started taking melons and grapes from the pyramids, breaking shelves and decorations in the process. [caption id="attachment_35359" align="aligncenter" width="1597"] Tajik fair in Astana, 2023; image: public domain[/caption] Impress the Guests One of the most memorable grand displays of fruit occurred when Tajikistan hosted the summit of leaders from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) on September 27, 2018. On the eve of the summit, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon walked his guests through a garden flanked by enough food to feed a small town for a month. It was the first time such a spread had been laid out for guests at an international gathering, with Rahmon seeming to appreciate having an agricultural background when hosting a diplomatic event. In July 2019, Rahmon met with then-Kyrgyz President Sooronbai Jeenbekov in the northern Tajik town of Isfara. Conflicts along the Kyrgyz-Tajik border were becoming increasingly deadly, and the two presidents met to discuss ways to ease tensions and resolve the festering problems along the frontier. While the two presidents talked, Rahmon guided Jeenbekov through “6 pyramids… of watermelons and melons, as well as almost 20 types of national breads.“ [caption id="attachment_35360" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Sooronbay Jeenbekov and Emomali Rahmon in Isfara; image: press service of the President of the Republic of Tajikistan[/caption] When Dushanbe hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in September 2021, the feast on the eve of the summit was every bit the equal of the CIS summit in 2018 and featured “huge pyramids of fragrant melons and watermelons, carpets of fresh fruit, grapes cascading like a waterfall, and even fountains of melons.” Rahmon brought his fruit feast to St. Petersburg in October 2022 when CIS leaders gathered for an informal CIS summit...