Tajikistan Local Politics - The Times Of Central Asia

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Electricity Supply

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Brace for Winter Power Shortages

As winter approaches, Kyrgyzstan is warning of potential electricity shortfalls due to critically low water levels in its hydro-reservoirs, and authorities are rolling out emergency measures. These include urging electricity conservation, shutting down all cryptocurrency mining farms to relieve grid pressure, increasing electricity imports, and accelerating repairs and upgrades to aging power-generation infrastructure. Officials with the Ministry of Energy and Industry of the Kyrgyz Republic say the reserves in key hydropower reservoirs are at their lowest level in more than a decade. At the same time, demand for electricity in homes and businesses is forecast to increase significantly this winter because of colder temperatures. The gap between supply and demand has forced the government to ask households to reduce electricity use during peak hours. Historically, Kyrgyzstan has relied heavily on hydropower. The country’s flagship facility, the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Station, supplies roughly 40% of the nation's electricity. But its reservoirs are fed primarily by spring and summer snowmelt. In recent years, melting snow has arrived earlier and run-off has fallen, shrinking water levels. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Kyrgyzstan’s hydroelectric system faces serious seasonal variability in its generational capacity. This winter’s challenge is compounded by weak output from thermal plants and delayed maintenance. The government reports that the ageing coal-fired and gas-fired plants in the north and south of the country require urgent repairs, with rehabilitating the plant in Bishkek alone set to cost around $150 million. With limited funds, several units will remain offline during the cold months. The immediate consequences for households are already appearing. Residents in Bishkek and surrounding regions have reported recurrent evening outages sometimes lasting a few hours. Landlord-run apartment blocks plan to brief residents about schedules for rotating cuts. In smaller towns and villages, citizens fear longer blackouts if the cold deepens. Businesses are also feeling the shock. Small-scale manufacturers report that they have had to halt production during scheduled cuts, eroding profits and increasing costs. Schools and hospitals say they are depending on standby generators. Energy stability plays a central role in Kyrgyzstan’s economy and social well-being. Without reliable power, business productivity falls, heating systems malfunction, and social discontent can spike. In recent years, protests over energy prices and outages have forced the government to scramble for solutions. The current measures are aimed not only at keeping the lights on but maintaining public confidence ahead of looming parliamentary elections. Regionally, Kyrgyzstan’s electricity system interacts with its neighbors. The country imports power from Kazakhstan and exchanges electricity with Uzbekistan, with cross-border feeds from Kazakhstan helping to cover shortages. This winter, Kazakhstan’s own constraints may limit exports, leaving Kyrgyzstan more exposed. Meanwhile, China has offered investment in hydropower expansion as part of regional cooperation. That deal may eventually increase supply, but it will not help in the short term. Meanwhile, neighboring Tajikistan is grappling with comparable winter electricity pressures. The country sources about 95% of its electricity from hydropower and enters the cold season with low reservoir and river flows that sharply...

Water Access

Central Asia Confirms Joint Water Plan for Shardara Reservoir Ahead of 2025-2026 Season

Central Asian nations have reached a consensus on projected water inflow volumes to the Shardara Reservoir for the upcoming non-vegetation period, according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation. The agreement was finalized during a regional meeting attended by senior officials: Durdy Gendjiev, Chair of Turkmenistan’s State Committee for Water Management; Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation; Shavkat Hamraev, Uzbekistan’s Minister of Water Management; and Jamshed Shodi Shoimzoda, First Deputy Minister of Energy and Water Resources of Tajikistan. Emil Shodikhanov, an adviser at the Kyrgyz Embassy in Turkmenistan, participated as an observer. Participants reviewed outcomes from the 2025 irrigation season and approved the operational forecast for the Naryn-Syr Darya reservoir cascade for the 2025-2026 non-vegetation period. A consensus was reached on expected inflow volumes to Shardara Reservoir, which is a critical node in the region’s transboundary water system. The meeting also included discussions on progress in implementing the commitments made during recent summits of the founding states of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea. The 92nd session of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) is scheduled to take place next year in Tajikistan. “Last irrigation season took place under difficult climate conditions. However, coordinated cooperation among the ICWC member states made it possible to ensure stability throughout the vegetation period,” said Nurzhigitov. “Through such meetings, we reach common agreements and lay the foundation for future cooperation. Together with our colleagues in Central Asia, we aim for a fair distribution of transboundary water resources that considers the interests of all parties.” This agreement follows the 16 November regional summit chaired by Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, during which Central Asian leaders discussed enhancing regional cooperation and accelerating joint infrastructure projects. The summit focused on escalating ecological and water challenges, and leaders stressed the need to adopt a “green development” framework for the region. They also proposed declaring 2026-2036 as the “Decade of Practical Action for the Rational Use of Water in Central Asia.”

Tajikistan’s Government to Introduce AI Browser for Administration

Tajikistan has announced plans to integrate AI into government operations for the first time, aiming to support data-driven decision-making across public administration. The announcement was made at the AI CONF conference in Dushanbe, one of Central Asia’s largest forums focused on AI. During the event, more than 20 agreements and partnerships were signed, totaling over $117 million. The headline development was an agreement between Perplexity AI, Epsilon3.ai, and the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of Tajikistan to launch the Comet AI Browser, described as the world’s first agent-based AI browser tailored specifically for the public sector. “This collaboration contributes to the formation of a sovereign artificial intelligence ecosystem in the region,” said Epsilon3.ai co-founder Najima Noyoftova. “By combining Perplexity's cutting-edge technology with our experience in creating government AI systems, we are laying the foundation for self-sufficient digital governance and setting a new standard for responsible AI innovation in Central Asia.” The Comet browser will replace manual document search and analysis processes, allowing officials to receive real-time analytical reports and policy recommendations. The goal is to accelerate administrative workflows and improve transparency across ministries. Comet uses natural language processing and deep data analysis to interpret queries, compare sources, and deliver conclusions. It can assist with gathering statistics, drafting regulatory documents, and monitoring procurement activities or economic trends. By automating routine tasks, it is expected to reduce staff workloads and lower the risk of human error. The project’s pilot phase is scheduled for fall 2025, during which 140 employees at the Ministry of Industry will be trained to use the browser. If successful, the platform will be rolled out to additional government agencies in 2026.

Regional Cooperation

How the Ferghana Valley Might Become Central Asia’s Laboratory of Peace

On October 15-16, in the heart of the Ferghana valley, which for decades has been associated with border conflicts, mistrust, and unresolved issues, the heads of Ferghana (Uzbekistan), Batken (Kyrgyzstan), and Sughd (Tajikistan) gathered to discuss the further peaceful development of the region. The forum brought together not just officials but also experts, diplomats, civil society, and international organization representatives from Central Asia, Europe, and other regions. The first Ferghana Peace Forum, entitled “Ferghana Valley: Joining Forces for Peace and Progress”, was not simply another gathering behind closed doors but a table where everyone was offered a seat. The valley, with territory of roughly 20,000-22,000 km² shared by three countries, was one of the main routes for the ancient Silk Road. It embodies diverse cultures and fertile lands, but also, until recently, the unresolved problems and deep contradictions of Central Asia. Complex issues, including water management, border demarcation, and conflicting national narratives. People's connections were severed by visa regimes and land mines. It was, until recently, impossible to imagine today's reality where people are crossing borders without long lines or bureaucratic barriers. The Khujand Declaration, signed in early 2025 by the presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, paved the way for the forum. The document marked a historic shift, reflecting the countries' desire for dialogue, open borders, economic cooperation, and cultural exchange. However, it remained only a vision without an implementation mechanism that would turn the declaration into sustainable interaction. The Ferghana Peace Forum promises to fill this gap by becoming the first peacebuilding platform designed specifically for the territory, and managed by the three countries themselves with support from external organisations, rather than by external intermediaries or actors. The Forum's founding communiqué defines its goal as creating a permanent platform for building trust, developing a common development strategy, attracting investment, and forming a new political climate in Central Asia. It is a rare occasion when Central Asian countries organize inclusive platforms for open discussions and the participation of civil society, academia, and business. With more than 300 participants, including officials from the UN, EU, and OSCE, as well as leading international NGOs, the forum promises to become a truly historical event. As one of the Forum participants noted, “If peace is possible in Ferghana, it is possible anywhere in Central Asia, and perhaps anywhere in the world.” Discussions were focused on the practical implementation of regional cooperation. Participants addressed issues that have long fueled tensions in the valley: border procedures, joint water management, trade facilitation, labor migration, and crisis prevention. At the same time, the platform created a space for exploring new areas of cooperation, such as digitalization, education, renewable energy, and tourism. There was a shared understanding that peace cannot be sustainable without economic opportunities and social integration. The timing of the forum could not have been better. With the flow of current geopolitical events, Central Asian countries have a narrow window of opportunity to strengthen the internal cooperation and to institutionalize it, while Russia is distracted by...

Borders

Uzbek Parliament Ratifies Border Agreement with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

On October 28, the Legislative Chamber of Uzbekistan’s parliament, the Oliy Majlis, ratified a law approving a trilateral agreement on the junction point of the state borders of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, according to the chamber’s press service. The agreement was initially signed on March 31 in the Tajik city of Khujand during a high-level meeting between Presidents Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan, Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan, and Sadyr Japarov of Kyrgyzstan. The leaders also took part in a remote inauguration of the Dostlik (Friendship) stele, which now marks the exact location where the borders of the three countries meet. Lawmakers emphasized that Central Asia is increasingly becoming a region of constructive dialogue, mutual trust, and regional cooperation, moving past a legacy of closed borders and unresolved territorial disputes. Umid Yakubkhodjayev, a member of the parliamentary committee on international affairs, defense, and security, stated that the agreement formally establishes the precise location of the tri-border junction and the delineation of border lines in the area. He noted that the deal would bolster good-neighborly relations, reinforce trust and strategic partnerships, and contribute to the international stature of the Central Asian region. The agreement also lays a legal foundation for expanding cross-border cooperation, enhancing trade, and launching joint infrastructure initiatives in neighboring regions. These efforts are expected to create jobs and raise living standards. The draft law was passed in its first reading and, by exception, was adopted immediately in all three readings. It has now been forwarded to the Senate and will enter into force upon presidential signature.

Poverty

Poverty in Central Asia: Who Is Living and Who Is Just Surviving

A new analysis by Ranking.kz reveals that Kazakhstan currently has the most favorable poverty indicators among Central Asian countries, while Tajikistan records the highest levels of deprivation. The findings also reflect significant shifts in global poverty estimates following a revision of the World Bank’s methodology. According to Our World in Data, by 2024, the global number of people living in extreme poverty had risen to 817 million, an increase of 125 million compared to previous figures. However, this jump does not signal worsening global conditions. Instead, it stems from a change in measurement criteria. In June 2024, the World Bank raised the international poverty line from $2.15 to $3 per day in purchasing power parity (PPP), based on 2021 prices. This methodological update expanded the scope of people counted as poor, even as real incomes among the poorest rose by approximately 16%. Sub-Saharan Africa continues to bear the brunt of global poverty. Of the 30 countries with the highest poverty rates, 24 are located on the continent. In Central Asia, Tajikistan ranks as the region’s poorest nation, with 61.3% of its population living on less than $3 per day. In contrast, the poverty rate stands at just 2.74% in Kyrgyzstan, 2.72% in Uzbekistan, and 1.93% in Armenia. Kazakhstan reports the region’s lowest rate of extreme poverty; just 0.04% of the population lives below the international threshold. Data for Turkmenistan is not available. According to Kazakhstan’s National Statistics Bureau, the share of citizens earning less than the cost of the basic food basket declined from 0.2% in 2023 to 0.1% in 2024. For the first time, the gap between urban and rural poverty disappeared; previously, rural areas had higher rates. In absolute terms, 16,500 people lived below the food minimum in the first quarter of 2025. The proportion of the population earning less than the national subsistence minimum also decreased, falling from 5.2% in 2023 to 5% in 2024. The breakdown shows 3.8% in cities and 6.9% in villages. The total number of people below the subsistence minimum dropped to 1 million. As of early 2025, the figure had improved further to 4.5%, with the minimum raised to 52,500 tenge (approximately $98) per capita. In terms of daily consumption, Kazakhstani citizens spent an average of $7 per day in 2024. Based on World Bank data, the international dollar was equivalent to 160.93 tenge, reflecting the amount needed in Kazakhstan to purchase a comparable basket of goods and services to that of $1 in the United States.