Tajikistan Local Politics - The Times Of Central Asia

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Elections

Citing Restrictions, OSCE Withdraws Observer Mission Ahead of Tajikistan’s Elections

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has canceled plans to observe parliamentary elections in Tajikistan in March, saying the authorities have not provided assurances that its mission observers will be accredited for the event. The Dushanbe-based election experts of the OSCE haven’t been able to start working since their observation mission opened on Jan. 22, according to the group’s office for democratic institutions and human rights. The office had concluded that it needed 20 long-term observers and 150 short-term observers to monitor concerns about the impartiality of Tajik election officials, the lack of independence of the judiciary and law enforcement and a deterioration in the rights of expression and assembly. The OSCE office said on Tuesday that it “deploys election observation missions at the invitation of states, and host governments need to provide the necessary conditions for their effective and unrestricted operation. Prolonged uncertainty surrounding accreditation undermines the integrity of this process.” Tajikistan has a presidential system of power and longtime President Emomali Rahmon had said that elections to the lower parliamentary chamber, the 63-member Majlisi Oli, would be held on March 2. Elections to the upper chamber, the Majlisi Milli, will be held on March 28. Rahmon’s eldest son, Rustam Emomali, is chairman of the upper chamber, positioning him as a possible successor to his father, and some of the chamber’s 33 members are appointed by the president. International concerns are growing about the harsh environment for government opponents and journalists not affiliated with the state in Tajikistan, some of whom have been imprisoned. The government often casts critics as a threat to stability in a country that endured a civil war in the 1990s and – with its long border with Afghanistan - points to Islamic extremism as a perpetual threat. The biggest opposition party, the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, was labeled a terrorist group and banned in 2015. Rahmon leads the ruling People’s Democratic Party of Tajikistan and there are half a dozen other parties with small numbers of seats. In a speech to parliament in late December, Rahmon said “national security and sustainable economic development” were among the key goals of his administration. Despite criticism that he is authoritarian, he used the language of democracy in a brief reference to the elections. “The upcoming elections should be held in a transparent, free, and high-level manner in accordance with the Constitution and laws of the Republic of Tajikistan, and voters should choose their worthy candidates,” said Rahmon, who has been in power since 1994. Observers from the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a group of post-Soviet states, will monitor Tajikistan’s elections.

Kyrgyz-Tajik Border

Kyrgyz-Tajik Villages to Be Relocated as Part of Border Resolution

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov recently spoke with the Kabar news agency about progress in resolving the Kyrgyz-Tajik border dispute. He also addressed plans for the relocation of villages and homes situated in the checkerboard-like border areas. Progress Toward Resolution Japarov provided an update on the status of negotiations, commenting: “The border issue is almost resolved. Right now, both sides are working on documenting the agreement. After this, the intergovernmental commissions will sign the documents, followed by the foreign ministers. Then, the parliaments of both countries will ratify the agreement. Finally, the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will sign it, and the process will conclude with an exchange of notes.” Japarov noted, however, that the process would take time to finalize. “It will take another 1-2 years to carry out demarcation work before the issue is fully settled. The most important thing is that we have reached a bilateral agreement,” he said. Addressing Checkerboard Villages When asked about the fairness of the border resolution, Japarov highlighted the balanced nature of the agreement: “In border disputes, it’s impossible to consider only one side’s interests. Decisions are made by considering the needs of both countries. For instance, some disputed sections of the border were split equally. In cases where houses were mixed, like in checkerboard villages, we resolved these issues too.” To address these mixed-border settlements, Japarov explained that families whose homes fall on the other side of the border will be relocated. Tajik families residing on Kyrgyz land will be moved by Tajikistan, and Kyrgyz families on Tajik land will be relocated by Kyrgyzstan. “We will build new homes for them elsewhere, considering the size of their land,” Japarov assured. Peaceful Resolution a Priority Japarov emphasized the importance of resolving the dispute through peaceful and cooperative means. He underscored that resolving border issues would improve border management, avoid future tensions, and build trust between the two nations. Once the demarcation process began, Japarov promised full transparency and regular updates for the public. Historical Context Tensions along the Kyrgyz-Tajik border have been ongoing for decades, with significant disputes intensifying in the late 2000s and early 2010s. In these areas, infrastructure complications have exacerbated the problem. Both countries began constructing alternate roads to avoid crossing into each other’s territory, but rugged terrain and limited financial resources have slowed progress. One of the most challenging areas is the road connecting Batken to the Kyrgyz village of Ak-Sai and the Tajik enclave of Vorukh. This road weaves through Kyrgyz and Tajik territory several times, and in some sections, the road itself serves as the border.

Kyrgyz-Tajik Border

Explosion Near Kyrgyz-Tajik Border Leaves Two Injured

On January 5, an explosion occurred in the Kyrgyz village of Arka-2, near Kyrgyzstan's border with Tajikistan. The incident was reported by the Information and Communications Department of the Border Service under the State Committee for National Security (SCNS). According to preliminary investigations, the explosion happened while the homeowner, identified as N.A., was cleaning under his porch, where old construction materials and metal objects had been stored. During the cleaning, N.A. discovered an unknown explosive device, believed to be a shell, which then detonated. The Border Guard Service noted that N.A.'s house had previously been damaged in 2022 as a result of shelling during cross-border clashes. The explosion left N.A. and his 12-year-old daughter, who was with him at the time, with shrapnel injuries. Both victims were taken to the hospital, where they received medical treatment and are now reported to be in stable condition. Following the explosion, Border Patrol engineers quickly secured the area. Law enforcement officials have launched an extensive investigation to determine the origin and circumstances surrounding the device. On the same day, a meeting was held between representatives of the law enforcement agencies of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The Tajik side was informed about the incident, and the border service issued a call for heightened vigilance among residents of border areas. Citizens were urged not to handle or investigate suspicious objects but to immediately report them to border units or law enforcement agencies. The explosion highlights lingering risks in border regions between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which have been prone to tensions and periodic violence in recent years. Efforts to strengthen security and cooperation between the two countries remain critical in preventing further incidents and ensuring the safety of border communities.

Economy

Rahmon Unveils Tajikistan’s Roadmap for Economic Growth and Diplomacy

On December 28, Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon delivered his annual address, titled “On Major Dimensions of Tajikistan’s Domestic and Foreign Policy,” during a joint session of both chambers of the Tajik Parliament. The president outlined key priorities for implementing domestic and foreign policy and advancing various sectors of Tajikistan's economy, including industry, energy, agriculture, transport, investment, entrepreneurship, education, science, healthcare, and social protection. Rahmon directed the government to draft a "Medium-Term Development Program for 2026-2030" by the end of 2025. Highlighting the need for innovation, he proposed declaring 2025-2030 the “Years of Development of the Digital Economy and Innovation.” Additionally, he announced plans to establish a University of Innovation and Digital Technologies in Kulob, building upon the existing Institute of Technology and Innovation Management. Rahmon noted significant progress in industrialization, with Tajikistan’s industrial production nearly doubling in the past five years. This growth included the creation of more than 2,040 industrial enterprises and 74,000 jobs. In the road and transport sector, Rahmon underscored the importance of transforming Tajikistan into a transit hub. Ongoing modernization and reconstruction efforts have already improved the country’s ranking in the World Economic Forum’s road quality index, rising from 50th to 44th among 165 countries. Rahmon highlighted that 43% of Tajikistan's 2024 state budget is allocated to the social sector. Over the past five years, public-sector wages have increased four times, doubling overall during this period. He instructed the government to further raise salaries for employees in education, healthcare, social protection, culture, sports, government agencies, law enforcement, and the military. Employment remains a strategic priority. Rahmon noted that 4.1 million jobs have been created since independence, and he directed regional and local authorities to generate an additional 1.4 million jobs across all sectors of the economy in the next five years. On foreign policy, Rahmon reiterated Tajikistan’s commitment to its “open doors” approach, expressing readiness to strengthen bilateral and multilateral relations. He emphasized the importance of constructive engagement with international and regional organizations, including the United Nations, international financial institutions, and development partners. Rahmon’s address outlined a comprehensive roadmap for Tajikistan’s development, combining innovation, infrastructure, and social investment with an open and cooperative foreign policy. His directives reflect a vision aimed at fostering economic growth, improving living standards, and enhancing the country's position on the global stage.

Opposition

Activist in Exile: Tajikistan Pressures Family Over Political Dissent

Mahmadsobir Abdukakhor, an activist associated with the banned Group 24 in Tajikistan, has accused law enforcement agencies in the Rasht District of pressuring his family. According to Abdukahkhor, authorities are demanding that his relatives persuade him to renounce his political activities and return to Tajikistan. “They came to my parents and brother, demanding that they convince me to return and ask for forgiveness from the authorities. But my parents are not responsible for my actions,” Abdukahkhor told Radio Ozodi on December 16. Abdukahkhor stated that such tactics are not new but reaffirmed that he would not stop his political activities or “repent,” as he does not trust the authorities’ assurances. “If I go back, I will either be killed like Umarali Kuwwatov or arrested like Sukhrob Zafar,” he said, referring to other opposition figures. Attempts by Radio Ozodi to obtain comments from Rasht District law enforcement agencies were unsuccessful. Tajik authorities have placed Mahmadsobir Abdukahkhor and other members of Group 24 — a political movement recognized as an extremist organization and banned in the country — on a wanted list. Abdukahkhor initially moved to Russia in 2012, where he ran a business and became involved in the movement before relocating to Europe. In 2014, Tajikistan amended its Criminal Code, allowing individuals accused of extremism to be exonerated if they return and “sincerely repent.” President Emomali Rahmon instructed law enforcement agencies to facilitate the return of such citizens. However, human rights activists claim that despite promises of amnesty, some returnees — including former members of ISIS and the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRP) — were subsequently arrested and imprisoned.

Population

Central Asia’s Population Surpasses 80 Million, With Rapid Growth Expected to Continue

The population of Central Asia has reached a historic milestone, exceeding 80 million people as of December 2024. Projections indicate this figure could surpass 100 million by 2050, highlighting the region’s rapid demographic growth and the challenges it brings for sustainable development. Rapid Population Growth According to the Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) macroeconomic forecast, Central Asia’s population has grown by nearly one and a half times over the past 24 years, increasing by approximately one million people annually. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan lead the region in demographic growth. Tajikistan’s population reached 10 million at the beginning of 2024, marking an 80% increase since 1991. Uzbekistan, the region’s most populous country, has maintained an annual growth rate of 1.1–1.2%, with its population now exceeding 36.7 million. The region as a whole has a youthful demographic profile, with an average age of 26.2 years. Diverging Population Estimates PopulationPyramid.net estimates Central Asia’s 2024 population at over 82 million. The discrepancy with other sources likely arises from differing methodologies and data collection techniques. Despite this, all sources agree that the population has surpassed the 80 million mark. Future Projections and Challenges Central Asia’s population is expected to exceed 100 million by 2050. However, rapid demographic growth presents serious challenges for the region. Key concerns include: • Sustainable Economic Development: Ensuring that economic growth keeps pace with population increases. • Job Creation: Addressing the needs of a growing labor force. • Quality of Life: Improving access to education, healthcare, and essential services. Managing these issues will be a top priority for state policies in the coming decades, as governments seek to balance population growth with sustainable development.