Turkmenistan Environment - The Times Of Central Asia

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Earthquake

Seismic Cities: Is Central Asia Prepared for a Major Earthquake?

The recent 7.7-magnitude earthquake in Myanmar, which claimed over 3,500 lives and caused structural failures more than 1,000 kilometers away in Bangkok, has once again highlighted the precariousness of life in seismically active regions. “Earthquakes happen on geological faults, which are often sited at the edges of mountain ranges.” Richard Walker, Professor of Tectonics at the University of Oxford told The Times of Central Asia. “Sadly, the edges of mountain ranges are often the best places to live, due to the presence of water and of land for farming.” All Central Asian capitals, except for Kazakhstan’s relocated capital Astana, are located on such terrain. This has historically made them vulnerable. The 1948 earthquake in Ashgabat destroyed almost the entire city; Tashkent suffered a similarly destructive event in 1966, and Almaty was wracked by twin blows in 1887 and 1911. Although no such catastrophic event has occurred in the last half century, the earth beneath the region continues to rumble restlessly. Two quakes in early 2024 left the residents of Almaty unnerved. Last week, on April 14, a 5.9 magnitude earthquake in Tajikistan caused the death of a young boy and damage to around thirty homes near the Chinese border. Though moderate, these tremors serve to remind residents of the active tectonics of the region and raise questions about the structural readiness of buildings and infrastructure should a stronger event occur. Botched Building After the 2023 earthquake on the Turkey-Syria border, which killed over 53,000 people in Turkey alone, authorities launched investigations into over a hundred individuals linked to the construction of buildings that did not withstand the tremors. Such stories were familiar to people who grew up in the Soviet Union. In the 1988 Spitak earthquake in Armenia, tens of thousands died in Leninakan (now Gyumri). Many of the casualties were put down to the collapse of identikit 9-storey tower blocks built in the Brezhnev era. These were designed to withstand a magnitude 7 earthquake; in the event, the 6.8 magnitude quake that struck Leninakan caused 72 out of 78 of these buildings to collapse. In a bitter irony, many older, pre-Soviet structures remained intact. One team of international inspectors blamed “very low construction standards and suspect joint details” in Leninakan for the scale of the disaster. Similar precast tower blocks to those that collapsed in Armenia can be seen across the former USSR. According to the Uzbek media, the Cabinet of Ministers estimated in 2023 that approximately 70% of private housing in the country failed to meet current earthquake resistance standards. “The 2023 earthquake in Turkey was a tragic reminder of the importance of strict compliance with building codes and continuous quality control of construction in seismic regions,” Daulet Sarsenbayev, director of the Kazakhstan’s National Scientific Center for Seismological Observations and Research, told TCA. “Such events provide valuable lessons for all countries, including Kazakhstan, in terms of the need to strengthen the regulatory framework, increase transparency in the construction industry, and invest in resilient infrastructure.” In response to the...

Irrigation

New Report Urges Local Irrigation Equipment Production to Tackle Water Scarcity in Central Asia

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) have jointly released a report titled Irrigation Equipment Production in Central Asia: Industrialising the Water Sector, highlighting the urgent need to localize irrigation equipment manufacturing in the region. The publication argues that establishing a domestic irrigation equipment manufacturing sector could serve as a strategic response to mounting water challenges in Central Asia. It calls for coordinated action by regional governments, international organizations, and private sector actors to implement investment and policy frameworks aimed at reducing reliance on imports and fostering a self-sufficient production ecosystem. Heavy Dependence on Imports The report identifies irrigation equipment as a key strategic area for bolstering food security and managing water resources more efficiently. Currently, the regional market for such equipment is valued between $130 million and $200 million, with over 90% of this demand met through imports. Despite this dependency, governments across Central Asia are taking proactive steps to modernize agriculture. Substantial financial and non-financial support is being extended to farmers, and plans are underway to expand irrigated farmland and adopt advanced irrigation technologies. According to the study, the irrigated area in Central Asia is projected to grow to 10.6 million hectares by 2040. This expansion is expected to drive demand for up to two million units of irrigation equipment, with the potential to generate $426 million annually in local production. The report further estimates the annual market for new sprinklers at $114 million and for drip irrigation systems at $220 million. Cluster-Based Development To address these needs, the publication proposes a cluster-based approach to developing local irrigation equipment production hubs. Nikolai Podguzov, Chairman of the EDB Management Board, emphasized the economic potential of localization: “The region’s demand for irrigation equipment could more than double by 2030. Localizing production will not only help retain investments within the local economy but also stimulate the development of precision irrigation technologies, digital water management tools, engineering labs, and knowledge-sharing centers focused on best practices in irrigation and water use.”

Climate Change

Climate Change – A Catalyst for Poverty and Environmental Degradation in Central Asia

Climate change encapsulates the gradual yet profound shifts in temperature and weather patterns over extended periods. While these changes can arise naturally from various phenomena — such as fluctuations in solar energy or significant volcanic eruptions — the advent of the industrial age in the 1800s marked a pivotal point where human influence became the predominant force driving climate change. This influence stems chiefly from burning fossil fuels, including coal, oil, and natural gas. The combustion of these fuels releases vast quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, creating a thick layer that envelops the Earth and traps heat from the sun, resulting in a steady rise in global temperatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are the most significant greenhouse gases contributing to this crisis. Carbon dioxide predominantly emerges from driving gasoline-powered vehicles and burning coal for heating. Additionally, the widespread practices of deforestation and land conversion continue to elevate carbon dioxide levels. Methane, meanwhile, is primarily produced through agricultural practices and the extraction processes associated with the oil and gas industries. The sectors that bear the heaviest burden in terms of greenhouse gas emissions include energy production, industrial processes, transportation, building operations, agriculture, and land use changes. The ramifications of this unfolding climate crisis are dire, especially for the world’s most vulnerable populations, particularly those residing in poverty. According to alarming insights from the World Bank, the 74 countries with the lowest income levels contribute a mere one-tenth of global greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, ironically, these nations are poised to endure the harshest repercussions of climate change. Over the past ten years, they have experienced an astounding surge in natural disasters, facing approximately eight times the frequency of such events compared to the 1980s. The effects on the lives of vulnerable populations are profound and far-reaching. Many face severe health challenges, including the prevalence of illnesses exacerbated by inadequate healthcare access. Erratic water supply creates a critical situation, often resulting in polluted drinking water that can lead to waterborne diseases. Additionally, the standard of education for these communities tends to be alarmingly poor, limiting future opportunities for young individuals. Many are forced to relocate as refugees, fleeing conflict and instability, which further complicates their lives. Moreover, those who find employment often encounter hazardous working conditions that put their safety and well-being at significant risk. Climate change presents profound security challenges for Central Asia, a region grappling with the dual threats of environmental shifts and social vulnerabilities. The interplay of climate change with existing fragility intensifies the risks to peace, stability, and security across the globe. This convergence will exacerbate human insecurity and escalate socio-economic and political instability. As a result of these changing climatic conditions, critical resources such as water, food, and energy face increasing threats. Countries already characterized by vulnerability — those grappling with conflict or instability — are among the most likely to experience detrimental effects. For instance, reports indicate severe drought conditions have led to a 30-40% decrease in agricultural production in some Central Asian...

Water

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan Reach Agreement on Amu Darya Water Usage

A delegation from Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Water Resources visited Turkmenistan on March 13-14 to discuss bilateral cooperation on water management, Dunyo reports. Officials from both countries met in Turkmenabat to address key issues, including the maintenance and modernization of water infrastructure, flood prevention, riverbank reinforcement, and efficient water use. As part of the discussions, the sides reaffirmed their commitment to implementing agreements reached during the fourth Uzbek-Turkmen intergovernmental meeting on water management. They agreed to collaborate on hydrotechnical projects aimed at minimizing water losses in the Amu Darya River and optimizing resource use. The two countries also plan to conduct joint research on shared water bodies, exchange expertise on water-saving technologies and digital management systems, and enhance training programs for water management specialists. During the visit, the Uzbek delegation toured the Tuyamoyin hydroelectric complex, where representatives discussed potential improvements to its operations. Previously, The Times of Central Asia reported that Kazakhstan is set to receive 11 billion cubic meters of irrigation water by April 2025 under an agreement signed in Dushanbe. Meanwhile, on World Rivers Day of Action, environmental groups raised concerns about growing threats to Central Asia’s rivers and lakes. Organizations such as Rivers Without Boundaries and Friends of the Earth US have called on international financial institutions to reconsider funding for hydropower projects in the region.

Environment

Caspian Sea Shrinking Faster Than Expected, Risking Aral Sea-Like Disaster

The Caspian Sea is shoaling at an alarming rate, raising concerns among environmentalists in the countries that border it. According to the global movement Save The Caspian Sea, the sea level has dropped by two meters over the past 18 years. If this trend continues, the water level could fall by another 18 meters by 2100, triggering an ecological catastrophe much sooner than anticipated. Kazakh Coastlines Recede by 50 Kilometers The most dramatic retreat of the Caspian shoreline has been recorded along the Kazakh coast, where the sea has receded by 50 kilometers. Environmental activist Vadim Ni, founder of Save The Caspian Sea, reports that from 2005 to 2023, the sea’s surface area has shrunk by more than 30,000 square kilometers. This drastic change is devastating local ecosystems, particularly the Caspian seal population, which has declined from one million to just 70,000. Each year, thousands of dead seals are found along Kazakhstan’s coastline. Shipping and Oil Production at Risk Falling water levels are also disrupting shipping and trade in the Caspian Sea. Cargo ships can no longer enter the port of Aktau, a critical hub in the Trans-Caspian transport corridor that connects Kazakhstan with Azerbaijan. The Kazakh government has developed a dredging project to keep Aktau operational, with plans approved in December 2024. The project is expected to cost 42 billion tenge ($84 million). Additionally, the shoaling of the Caspian Sea is limiting the loading capacity of transport ships to just 75% of their maximum displacement. This also hinders access to the Kashagan oil field, one of Kazakhstan’s largest energy projects. [caption id="attachment_29154" align="aligncenter" width="671"] The Caspian Sea as seen from space; image: NASA[/caption] Ecologists Warn of Aral Sea-Like Collapse Russian ecologist Alexander Veselov has warned that the Caspian Sea could face the same fate as the Aral Sea, which virtually disappeared due to overuse and mismanagement. “The Caspian Sea may split into several parts, water quality will deteriorate, leading to mass deaths of swans, sturgeons, and seals. However, state authorities are failing to respond adequately to the crisis,” Veselov said. Impact on Climate and Regional Weather The Caspian Sea plays a crucial role in regulating the climate across Central Asia and beyond. Pyotr Zavyalov, deputy director of the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology at the Russian Academy of Sciences, warns that a continued drop in sea level could alter precipitation patterns as far as the Pacific region. The current average sea level of the Caspian stands at minus 29.5 meters relative to the World Ocean, the lowest point in 400 years. However, precise long-term predictions remain difficult due to the complex interactions of evaporation, river runoff, and precipitation. Volga River and Algae Threaten Caspian’s Future The Volga River, which supplies 90% of the Caspian’s water, has seen its flow dramatically reduced due to the construction of numerous dams in recent years. Meanwhile, scientists have recorded the spread of the dinophyte algae Ceratium tripos var. balticum in the Middle Caspian Sea. This invasive species can trigger harmful algal blooms, reducing oxygen...

Water

Experts Warn Central Asia Faces Chronic Water Shortage by 2028

Central Asia is heading toward a severe water crisis as climate change, population growth, and outdated infrastructure put increasing pressure on the region’s water resources, experts have warned. At a recent roundtable on climate change and water management, Stanislav Pritchin, head of the Central Asia sector at the Russian Academy of Sciences, highlighted the growing threat. Climate change is a major factor, as rising temperatures accelerate glacier melt - the primary source of freshwater in Central Asia. Meanwhile, rapid population growth is driving up demand. Uzbekistan, the region’s most populous country, has seen its population increase from 22 million in 1991 to an estimated 37.5 million in 2025. Across Central Asia, the total population is approaching 80 million. Another challenge is outdated infrastructure. Pritchin noted that up to 50% of irrigation water is lost due to inefficient and aging systems. Moreover, the region lacks a strong institutional framework for managing water distribution and policy. While some cooperative projects exist - such as the joint construction of the Kambar-Ata hydropower plant - they are insufficient to address the broader crisis. In response to these challenges, on February 19, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) approved a $125 million loan to help Uzbekistan improve water security, reduce losses, and enhance distribution efficiency. The Climate-Smart Water Management Improvement Project aims to introduce advanced monitoring and management systems. Uzbekistan’s national water utility, Uzsuvtaminot, will implement digital technology to track water flow, minimize waste, and improve service delivery. The initiative will also establish a comprehensive inventory of water supply infrastructure and deploy a nationwide bulk flow metering and telemetry system. “Uzbekistan’s water resources are under acute threat from climate change and inefficient usage,” said ADB Country Director for Uzbekistan, Kanokpan Lao-Araya. “ADB’s project introduces smart water management systems to improve water usage, reduce energy consumption, and increase operational efficiency to lower Uzbekistan’s carbon footprint.” This initiative is part of Uzbekistan’s broader efforts to modernize infrastructure and prepare for future water challenges. However, experts caution that without stronger regional cooperation, no single country can fully resolve the crisis.