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Regional Ecological Summit

Astana Ecological Summit Turns Regional Climate Pressure Into a Call for Joint Action

On April 22, 2026, leaders from Central Asia and neighboring states opened the Regional Ecological Summit 2026 in Astana on Earth Day with an urgent and practical message: the region’s environmental crisis is no longer a future risk, but a present constraint on water, food, energy, and economic security. The summit, held under the theme “A Shared Vision for a Sustainable Future,” was organized by Kazakhstan with the United Nations and international partners. Its stated purpose is to develop policy tools for protecting, restoring, and jointly using ecosystems, water and land resources, and conserving biodiversity in Central Asia. The program includes 58 events, consultations on a possible International Water Organization within the UN system, and expected documents, including a Central Asian declaration on environmental solidarity and a 2026–2030 regional action program. [caption id="attachment_47607" align="aligncenter" width="775"] Image: TCA[/caption] Opening the plenary, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev argued that environmental policy must not become another dividing line in global politics. He called for a fair and balanced green transition, especially for developing economies, and warned that Central Asia’s shared rivers, landscapes, and climate risks demand shared responsibility. Tokayev singled out water scarcity, desertification, glacier melt, air pollution and biodiversity loss as the region’s core challenges. He also highlighted Kazakhstan’s plans to expand renewable energy, protect the Caspian Sea, restore the Northern Aral, and start consultations on a proposed International Water Organization. [video width="720" height="1280" mp4="https://timesca.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/no-comments-Reels.mp4"][/video] The water question dominated the speeches. President Sadyr Japarov said that Kyrgyzstan bears a disproportionate burden despite its small contribution to global emissions. He pointed to a sharp increase in mudflows and floods, shrinking glaciers, and the fact that most water formed in Kyrgyzstan flows to neighboring states. His proposal was blunt: downstream users should help co-finance the water infrastructure and ecosystem services that upstream countries maintain. Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev turned the summit into a platform for concrete regional initiatives. In his official speech, he said that Central Asia is warming twice as fast as the global average, has already lost nearly a third of its glaciers, and faces land degradation across 80 million hectares. He proposed a Clean Air consortium, a regional desertification and drought center, a green trade corridor, a unified climate-investment portfolio, an environmental atlas and a Central Asian Red Book. Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon brought the glacier crisis into sharp relief. Tajikistan supplies much of Central Asia’s water, but its glaciers are retreating, threatening water balance and increasing disaster risks. Rahmon linked the environmental agenda to hydropower, green finance, biodiversity protection, and water diplomacy, and invited partners to continue the discussion at a high-level water conference in Dushanbe. Turkmenistan's President Serdar Berdimuhamedov backed a stronger institutional approach, proposing a UN-supported regional council on water use to align national policies and manage transboundary resources more transparently. He also announced a high-level Caspian Sea ecology meeting in Turkmenistan for October 2026. Heads of state from beyond Central Asia widened the frame. Armenia’s President Vahagn Khachaturyan stressed climate impacts on agriculture, ecosystems and water security, while...

Regional Ecological Summit

Regional Ecological Summit to Open in Astana Amid Pressure on Water, Trade, and Regional Cooperation

When the Regional Ecological Summit (RES 2026) opens in Astana this Wednesday, the official framing will center on Shared Vision for a Resilient Future, combining practical regional solutions with diplomatic ambitions that include a Joint Declaration and a 2026-2030 Program of Action. Behind that language sits a harder reality. Water and energy officials in Tashkent, Bishkek, and Astana are dealing with a region which is drying out faster than its infrastructure and politics are adapting. That gives the summit a sharper edge than earlier environmental gatherings. Two issues stand out: the management of winter water-sharing arrangements ahead of the irrigation season, and the way the shrinking Caspian could constrain the Middle Corridor. The Toktogul Equation: A Fragile "Winter-for-Summer" Swap The most immediate point of pressure is the Toktogul Reservoir in Kyrgyzstan. In late 2025, an agreement was reached under which Kyrgyzstan would limit winter hydropower generation, preserving water for downstream Kazakh and Uzbek farmers, in exchange for electricity supplies from its neighbors. The arrangement remains in place, but its durability will be tested as summer demand rises. One question hanging over the summit is whether Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will provide enough power support to help Kyrgyzstan conserve water without reopening old upstream-downstream tensions. For downstream states, that is not only a water issue but an agricultural and political one. The Caspian Emergency: Depth as a Trade Barrier For years, the shallowing of the Caspian was treated as a long-term problem. In 2026, it is becoming an operational one. According to recent reporting, Aktau port is operating at an average depth of 4.5 meters, far below the 6.5 to 7 meters needed for full operations. The summit will also highlight the Integrated Management of Seascapes project. The UNDP-linked initiative is intended to balance the need for dredging and port access with protection of the northern Caspian’s fragile ecosystem. That tension is no longer theoretical. It now touches trade, shipping capacity, and the future of the corridor itself. The Digital Transition One of the summit’s more concrete strands is the National Water Resources Information System. According to the Kazakh government, the system is to enter industrial operation by the end of 2026. The plan is to automate 103 irrigation canals in southern Kazakhstan using $1.15 billion in financing from the Islamic Development Bank. The broader regional test is whether neighboring states will share enough data to support a cross-border water monitoring system, giving officials a clearer view of how shared resources are being managed. The Green Energy Corridor Alongside the water agenda, the Green Energy Corridor remains one of the projects that clearly aligns Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan. The plan is to transmit green electricity to Europe via a subsea cable across the Caspian. CESI is finalizing the feasibility study, pointing to an export model that leans less on hydrocarbons and more on regional infrastructure. It also shows how environmental pressure and economic strategy are starting to overlap. For Central Asian governments, climate policy is no longer only about adaptation. It is...

Access to Clean Water

Water Stress: Will the Summer of 2026 Become a Turning Point for Central Asia?

The summer of 2026 is projected to be a critical and potentially decisive period for Central Asia in the context of water stress. The region is entering the growing season with significantly lower water reserves in its main river basins, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, compared to previous years. The combined impact of climate change and rising consumption is expected to exacerbate irrigation shortages, threatening crop yields and food security. A Region Under Pressure: Water as a Strategic Factor For Kazakhstan, water is taking on an increasing strategic importance in 2026. The southern regions, Kyzylorda, Turkestan, and Zhambyl, have already entered a phase of persistent low water availability. Estimates suggest that the irrigation deficit could reach up to 1 billion cubic meters. The situation in the Syr Darya basin remains critical. Inflows are expected to fall 3.2 billion cubic meters below normal, and by the start of the growing season, total water volume may reach only 1-2 billion cubic meters, far below demand. The Shardara Reservoir, a key regional storage facility, is currently at roughly half of its design capacity. Uzbekistan faces an even more vulnerable position due to its high population density and large agricultural sector. The flow of the Amu Darya is projected to fall to 65% of its historical norm, putting food stability at risk. Tashkent is accelerating investments in canal reconstruction, as water losses during transport reach up to 40%. Against this backdrop, tensions between upstream and downstream countries could become more pronounced. Kyrgyzstan, acting as the region’s “water tower,” faces a difficult trade-off between energy security and its obligations to downstream neighbors. Low accumulation levels in the Toktogul Reservoir have constrained hydropower generation, leading to winter energy shortages and reduced summer water releases, precisely when Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan require them for irrigation. This cyclical dependency turns each growing season into a complex round of “water-for-electricity” negotiations, with diminishing room for maneuver. Tajikistan faces a similar situation in the Amu Darya basin. The Nurek Hydropower Plant is operating under strict conservation principles as reservoir levels remain several meters below previous norms. For Dushanbe, the priority remains fulfilling the Rogun project, which, under low-water conditions, raises justified concerns among downstream states. These tensions are compounded by the accelerated melting of Pamir glaciers, which currently increases water flows but poses a long-term risk of severe depletion. Turkmenistan is also expected to experience acute water stress in 2026. In the Ahal and Mary regions, pasture degradation and limited irrigation are reducing livestock numbers and grain yields. The government is investing in dredging the Karakum Canal and constructing small desalination plants, but these measures only partially offset declining Amu Darya flows. An additional destabilizing factor is Afghanistan’s Qosh-Tepa Canal project. By summer 2026, its impact on the Amu Darya basin is expected to become physically noticeable. Estimates state that unregulated water withdrawals could reduce downstream flows by 15-25%. Afghanistan’s absence from regional water-sharing agreements creates a legal vacuum that existing mechanisms cannot address. As a result, Central Asia is...

Climate Change

Central Asia’s Climate Risks Could Cost Up to 130% of GDP by 2080

By 2080, climate change is expected to have a profound impact on the economies of Central Asian countries, with potential losses ranging from 20% to 130% of GDP. The most severe effects are projected for mountainous nations. These estimates were presented at a CAREC technology forum by Iskandar Abdullaev, a senior research fellow at the International Water Management Institute in Uzbekistan. According to Abdullaev, climate change is no longer solely an environmental issue but an increasingly significant economic factor. Key risks include droughts and water scarcity, floods, heatwaves, and glacier melt. The projected economic impact varies across the region. Tajikistan could face losses of between 80% and 130% of GDP, Kyrgyzstan 70% to 120%, Kazakhstan 40% to 80%, Uzbekistan 30% to 45%, and Turkmenistan 20% to 60%. Abdullaev emphasized that mountainous countries – Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan – are particularly vulnerable, as climate change directly affects water resources. Glacier melt reduces river flows, creating challenges for both energy production and water supply. Droughts and extreme heat are already placing pressure on agriculture, with declining crop yields and reduced pasture productivity. Without adaptation measures, the region’s long-term sustainability could be at risk. Experts stress that mitigation and adaptation efforts are essential to reduce these risks. These include modernizing irrigation systems, adopting climate-resilient agricultural technologies, and expanding renewable energy capacity. This is not the only warning. According to the World Bank, natural disasters are already causing significant economic damage in Central Asia. Losses from extreme events, including floods and earthquakes, can reach up to 6% of GDP, with earthquakes alone accounting for up to $2 billion in damages. At the same time, countries in the region face substantial financing gaps following major disasters. In Tajikistan, this gap could reach up to $1.5 billion. Experts warn that climate change is likely to intensify these risks, further increasing the economic burden on the region.

Qosh Tepa Canal

Afghanistan Advances Qosh Tepa Canal While Urging Regional Water Cooperation

Uzbekistan just hosted the Tashkent Water Week forum, and the speaker many wanted to hear from was the representative from Afghanistan. Central Asia and Afghanistan are being hit hard by climate change. This region has endured several droughts already this decade, and indications are that this year will bring drought again. Hanging over the forum was Afghanistan’s plan to complete the Qosh-Tepa Canal in 2028, which will draw water from a river that Central Asian countries also use and further complicate the regional water situation. [caption id="attachment_18865" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Qosh Tepa Canal, artist's rendition; image: TCA, Aleksandr Potolitsyn[/caption] Our Fair Share The forum, which actually spanned only two days, March 25-26, brought together some 80 speakers and more than 1,200 delegates from 19 countries. In the past five years, Central Asia has seen noticeably diminished precipitation, melting glaciers, and record high temperatures, making water conservation a priority. The last days of March saw temperatures soar into the 30s Celsius in southern Kazakhstan. In both Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, there were record-high temperatures in February. Rainfall for the last three months of 2025 was also far below normal across Central Asia. When the Taliban government announced in early 2022 that it would build the 285-kilometer-long, 100-meter-wide, 8.5-meter-deep Qosh Tepa to irrigate lands in northern Afghanistan, it added another water concern to Central Asia, particularly the governments in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Afghanistan’s Deputy Minister of Water and Energy, Mujeeb-ur-Rahman Omar, led the Afghan delegation at the Tashkent Water Week. At the forum, he repeated his government’s position that historically, Afghanistan has taken only very small volumes of water from the Amu-Darya River basin, while its northern neighbors have been using large amounts for irrigation for decades. “We believe in the fair and sustainable development of the region,” Omar said, adding, “We intend to develop (water resources) on a legal basis, in accordance with the legal rights of the countries in the region.“ Omar is correct that under international law, Afghanistan has an equal right to water from the Amu-Darya, one of Central Asia’s two great rivers. The river currently marks the border between Afghanistan to the south, and Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and a small section of Turkmenistan to the north. There is no separate regional water use agreement between the Central Asian states and Afghanistan. Since none of the Central Asian governments officially recognize the Taliban as the legitimate Afghan government, Russia is the only country that does at the moment, there is no possibility of a legal treaty on water use being signed. So, shortly after the construction of the canal is finished in 2028, some 20% of the water in the Amu-Darya, starting from the point just west of the Tajik-Uzbek border, will be diverted into the Qosh Tepa canal. It is already clear that this will mean the end of some downstream communities in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan that are on the edge of the Kara-Kum Desert and which are already under strain from insufficient water supplies. Turkmenistan did not send a...

Desertification

Environmental Pressures Affect Up to 80% of Irrigated Land in Turkmenistan

Environmental pressures in Turkmenistan are intensifying, with desertification, water scarcity, and ecological degradation posing increasing risks to agriculture and public health, according to a recent analysis cited by News-Asia. The study was prepared by experts from the Central Asia Climate Foundation (CACF)’s climate change and green energy project office ahead of a regional environmental summit scheduled for April 22–24 in Astana. Researchers warn that desertification has reached critical levels across large parts of the country. The expansion of the Karakum and Kyzylkum deserts is described as among the fastest globally, threatening farmland, infrastructure, and living standards. Land degradation is being exacerbated by overgrazing, soil salinization and inefficient water use. As a result, up to 80% of irrigated land is affected by elevated groundwater salinity, reducing soil productivity. Water scarcity remains another major challenge. Turkmenistan relies heavily on transboundary rivers, particularly the Amu Darya, leaving it vulnerable to upstream water management decisions. Climate change is also contributing to reduced flows in rivers such as the Atrek, Murgab, and Tejen. Much of the irrigation infrastructure dates back to the Soviet era and suffers from significant losses, while agriculture accounts for around 90% of total water consumption. The analysis highlights the continuing regional impact of the Aral Sea crisis. The drying of the sea has increased the frequency of salt and dust storms carrying harmful substances across Central Asia. In northern regions, including Dashoguz, medical specialists have reported rising rates of respiratory illness and other health problems linked to deteriorating air quality. Environmental risks are also growing along the Caspian Sea coast. According to the report, pollution from hydrocarbon extraction combined with declining water levels is affecting biodiversity and undermining fisheries. At the same time, the government has taken steps to address environmental challenges through national climate programs and reforestation initiatives. Turkmenistan is also participating in international projects, including a regional effort launched earlier this year to combat marine litter in the Caspian Sea with support from the United Nations Development Programme and the United Nations Environment Programme. The upcoming summit in Astana is expected to bring together around 1,500 participants, including government officials and representatives of international organizations, to discuss coordinated responses to environmental threats. Organizers say the meeting could result in a regional action program for 2026-2030 and a joint declaration by Central Asian leaders.