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Water Conservation

EDB Chief Economist Outlines Central Asia’s Water Challenges and Proposes Solutions

Evgeny Vinokurov, Vice-Chairman and Chief Economist of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), presented a sobering assessment of Central Asia’s water and energy challenges at the Annual Meetings of the Association of Development Financing Institutions in Asia and the Pacific (ADFIAP) on April 23. The event, held in Muscat, Oman, featured a plenary session dedicated to sustainable water management and practical strategies for addressing mounting environmental pressures in the region. Shrinking Glaciers and Growing Demand Vinokurov unveiled findings from the EDB’s think tank research, which paint a stark picture: Central Asia’s glaciers have shrunk by 30% over the past 50 years, while water demand continues to rise. Despite this, much of the region's water infrastructure remains outdated and inefficient, resulting in a loss of 40-55% of available water. Additionally, 10 million people in Central Asia still lack access to safe drinking water. Without targeted intervention, annual water scarcity could reach 5-12 cubic kilometers by 2028. National Commitments and Regional Coordination The EDB report emphasized water conservation as a critical pillar in the region’s response to these challenges. Several countries are already pursuing large-scale water-saving initiatives: Kazakhstan plans to expand water-saving irrigation technologies to 150,000 hectares per year by 2030. Uzbekistan has committed to saving 15 billion cubic meters of water. Kyrgyzstan aims to construct 106 new reservoirs to secure water supply. “Central Asia’s water crisis cannot be solved in isolation,” said Vinokurov. “Our research provides a roadmap for efficiency, investment, and, most importantly, regional cooperation. This is why the water-energy nexus remains a strategic priority for our Bank, both in terms of investments and research.” Localizing Water Solutions The EDB, in partnership with the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), recently published a report titled Irrigation Equipment Production in Central Asia: Industrialising the Water Sector, calling for localized production of irrigation equipment to enhance water efficiency and reduce dependency on imports. Another key publication from the EDB, The Irtysh River Basin: Transboundary Challenges and Practical Solutions, focuses on the Irtysh River basin shared by China, Kazakhstan, and Russia. The report outlines increasing water demand across the basin and proposes measures for managing cross-border water resources through collaborative frameworks. Uzbekistan Joins the EDB On April 9, Uzbekistan became the seventh member of the Eurasian Development Bank, joining Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. The move is expected to provide new avenues for Uzbekistan to modernize its infrastructure, particularly in the transport, energy, and water sectors, and support its broader industrial and agricultural development goals.

Railway Development

Uzbekistan and Russia Advance Trans-Afghan Railway Project to Pakistan

Uzbekistan and Russia have taken a significant step toward the practical implementation of the long-envisioned Trans-Afghan railway project, which aims to connect Central Asia to Pakistan via Afghanistan. The transport ministries of both countries, along with Russian Railways and the Uzbek national railway company, Uzbekistan Temir Yollari, have signed documents formalizing the start of the project’s development phase. According to Russia’s Ministry of Transport, the two countries will jointly develop a feasibility study in 2025, assessing freight traffic forecasts and economic viability. Two potential routes have been proposed: Route 1: Mazar-e-Sharif - Herat - Dilaram - Kandahar (Afghanistan) - Chaman (Pakistan) Route 2: Termez (Uzbekistan) - Naibabad (Afghanistan) - Logar (Afghanistan) - Harlachi (Pakistan) Further discussions involving Pakistan Railways and an Afghan delegation are scheduled for the Russia-Islamic World Forum in the Russian city of Kazan on May 15-16. Uzbekistan, which already maintains a direct rail connection to Afghanistan, continues to position itself as a logistics hub for trade between Russia, Central Asia, South Asia, and beyond. In January 2025, Tashkent extended its contract with the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan to operate and maintain the Hairaton to Mazar-e-Sharif railway -- a vital segment of the broader China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan-Afghanistan corridor. The corridor’s significance is expected to grow upon completion of the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway. Currently, Central Asia’s rail links to China are limited to routes transiting Kazakhstan. In a major development on April 17, Russia’s Supreme Court lifted its 2003 ban on the Taliban, having until then designated the group a terrorist organization. The decision, formally allowing Russian state institutions to engage with the Taliban, opens the door to deeper trade and infrastructure cooperation. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk stated that this policy shift will facilitate the promotion of Russian exports and the realization of Afghanistan’s transport and logistics potential. Uzbekistan has pursued a consistent policy of engagement with Afghanistan, emphasizing economic cooperation over isolation. In October 2024, Abdul Ghafar Terawi began his tenure as the head of the Taliban-led Afghan diplomatic mission in Tashkent. Speaking at the 79th session of the UN General Assembly in September 2024, Uzbek Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov reaffirmed Uzbekistan’s commitment to regional stability. “Afghanistan is an integral part of Central Asia,” Saidov told the Assembly. “Addressing the Afghan issue is essential for ensuring sustainable development across the region”. He praised Uzbekistan’s role in implementing the Trans-Afghan railway, which he said would offer landlocked Central Asian economies access to international ports. “This will positively impact the economic development of the entire region,” Saidov noted.

Rogun Dam

World Bank to Investigate Regional Risks of Rogun Dam Project

The World Bank’s Inspection Panel has agreed to review a formal complaint filed by residents of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan concerning the environmental and social risks associated with the Rogun Hydropower Project (HPP) in Tajikistan. The complaint, submitted by the regional environmental coalition Rivers Without Boundaries, targets a $350 million World Bank loan and related technical assistance used to revise the project’s 2014 environmental and social impact assessments. The complainants argue that the current studies are outdated and inadequate, relying on assumptions that are more than a decade old. They contend the assessments fail to account for the downstream effects of storing and diverting water from the Vakhsh River, one of the primary tributaries of the Amu Darya basin, on communities and ecosystems in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Preliminary estimates from the World Bank suggest that filling the Rogun reservoir could decrease the flow into the Aral Sea by 0.8 to 1.2 cubic kilometers annually, potentially cutting today’s levels by as much as 25%. Such a reduction, critics warn, could exacerbate ongoing issues in the region, including desertification, soil salinity, and land degradation. These challenges have plagued villages in the lower Amu Darya since Soviet-era irrigation schemes dramatically reduced the sea’s volume, leading to persistent dust storms and declining water quality. Local farmers are particularly concerned about the dam’s effect on the timing of water availability. If the dam shifts the river’s flow from spring and summer into winter storage, it could disrupt traditional irrigation cycles, forcing expensive infrastructure adjustments. Some communities fear economic collapse and forced migration if water needs go unmet during critical planting seasons. Environmental experts also highlight the cumulative threat posed by the Rogun HPP in conjunction with Afghanistan’s planned Qosh Tepa canal. No comprehensive analysis has been conducted to evaluate the combined impact of these two major water diversion projects on regional hydrology and biodiversity. The World Bank itself estimates that climate change could reduce water availability in the region by 15-30% by 2050, potentially costing Uzbekistan up to 250,000 agricultural jobs and requiring billions in climate adaptation investments. In response, Rivers Without Boundaries has called on the World Bank and its co-financiers, who have collectively pledged over $1 billion, to suspend further funding until a transparent, independent risk assessment is completed. The coalition advocates for a thorough study of alternative project designs, such as a lower dam height, to mitigate environmental and social damage. They also demand genuine public consultation with all Amu Darya basin countries, equitable compensation mechanisms, and legally binding water management agreements. Failure to address these concerns, the group warns, risks triggering an irreversible ecological and humanitarian crisis across Central Asia.

Uzbekistan Moves to Regulate AI and Protect Personal Data

Uzbekistan's Legislative Chamber of the Oliy Majlis (Parliament) has approved a new bill in its first reading that seeks to regulate the use of artificial intelligence, and introduce legal accountability for the misuse of personal data involving AI technologies. The bill was reviewed during a parliamentary session on April 15 and is designed to safeguard personal privacy in the face of rapidly advancing AI capabilities. It proposes penalties for the unauthorized processing and dissemination of personal data, particularly through online platforms and the media, when artificial intelligence is involved. Balancing Innovation and Risk Lawmakers noted that global investment in AI reached $154 billion in 2023 and was expected to double in 2024, with projections of a tenfold increase by 2030. Uzbekistan is actively working to integrate AI across various sectors, including industry, public administration, crime prevention, and environmental management. However, the government has also raised alarms about the risks posed by unregulated AI use. In particular, concerns have grown over privacy violations stemming from deepfake content and manipulated media. In 2024 alone, incidents involving fake AI-generated images and videos of public figures increased fiftyfold. The number of reported cases involving illegal use of AI-generated content rose from 1,129 in 2023 to 3,553 in 2024. Key Provisions of the Bill The proposed legislation formally defines “artificial intelligence” and sets out the government’s policy approach toward its development and application. It includes requirements for labeling AI-generated content and bans uses of AI that could undermine human dignity, personal freedoms, health, or individual rights. If adopted into law, the bill would mark a significant step toward establishing ethical and legal norms for AI deployment in Uzbekistan, amid growing global concern over the unchecked use of emerging technologies.

Climate Change

Central Asia Endures Record-Breaking March Heatwave Attributed to Climate Change

Central Asia experienced an unprecedented heatwave in March 2025, with temperatures soaring to levels typically seen in late spring or summer. According to a new study by World Weather Attribution (WWA), cities across Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan recorded daytime highs near or above 30°C, far above the seasonal norm. In Kyrgyzstan's Jalalabad, the temperature peaked at 30.8°C, while Uzbekistan's Namangan and Fergana registered 29.4°C and 29.1°C, respectively. Kazakhstan’s Shahdara witnessed a nighttime low of 18.3°C, the hottest March night ever recorded in the country. Researchers from the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, the United States, and the United Kingdom examined the five hottest days and nights in March across the region. Their findings indicate that human-induced climate change made the heatwave approximately 4°C hotter and nearly three times more likely. They also noted that climate models tend to underestimate early-season heat, particularly in March. Economic and Agricultural Risks The timing of the heatwave posed serious challenges for agriculture. In Kazakhstan, the spike in temperatures coincided with the start of spring wheat planting, while in neighboring countries, fruit trees were already in bloom, raising concerns about yield losses. Agriculture remains a critical sector in the region, employing up to 50% of the workforce in some countries and contributing between 5% and 24% to GDP. The region also depends heavily on glacier-fed irrigation systems. Unseasonably warm weather can accelerate snowmelt, depleting water reserves needed during peak agricultural demand later in the season. In response to declining glacier volumes, seven artificial glaciers were built in southern Kyrgyzstan's Batken region in late autumn 2024 to support future water needs. A Warming Future The WWA study warns that without significant emissions reductions, such heatwaves will become increasingly frequent and intense. If global warming reaches 2.6°C, events like March 2025 could become far more common. Governments in Central Asia are beginning to take action. Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, for example, have integrated heat-related risks into their national climate adaptation plans. Still, experts urge a broader, more coordinated regional response, calling for the use of heat-tolerant crops, enhanced early warning systems, and climate-conscious urban planning.

Trump's Tariffs

Unpacking the Effects of Trump’s Tariffs on Central Asia

Trade analysts across Central Asia generally agree that the immediate impact of the United States' tariff policy on the export dynamics of their nations will likely be minimal, as observed in past experiences, except for Kazakhstan. However, there is a palpable concern regarding potential unforeseen consequences arising from a broader global trade conflict. Notably, the timing of the Trump administration's announcement regarding global tariffs on imports coincides with a period when Central Asian countries are actively working to enhance their regional trade relationships. This new tariff policy raises significant doubts about the authenticity of recent U.S. efforts to promote increased trade and investment in the region. The mixed signals coming from Washington may lead Central Asian leaders to re-evaluate their current trade partnerships, especially as they consider the benefits of strengthening ties with China and Russia against the attractiveness of expanding commerce with the United States. Similarly, the European Union may find an opportunity to improve its position, while India could leverage the Chabahar route (a multi-modal transportation route connecting India, Iran, Afghanistan, and potentially Central Asia and Europe). It is worth noting that the market is primarily situated in Asia, and this alternative could have adverse long-term effects on the United States. Kazakhstan, acknowledged as the United States’ largest trading partner in Central Asia, is poised to face significant repercussions from introducing new tariffs set at 27%. In 2024, trade relations between the U.S. and Kazakhstan reached an impressive total of $3.4 billion, with $1.1 billion in U.S. exports to Kazakhstan and $2.3 billion in imports from Kazakhstan to the U.S. However, a statement from the Kazakh Trade Ministry indicates that exports to the U.S. primarily consist of crude oil, uranium, silver, and other raw materials, all exempt from these tariffs. In 2024, Kazakhstan exported only $95.2 million worth of goods, which will now incur surcharges – a relatively modest figure compared to the country’s overall foreign trade turnover of $141.4 billion. Trade analysts suggest that Kazakhstan has little cause for concern, viewing this situation more as a psychological impact than a serious economic threat. Resource-driven Central Asian economies, such as Kazakhstan, may even find enhanced opportunities in the expanding Asian market. Trade dynamics in Central Asia reveal a complex landscape, especially concerning the United States. In 2024, Uzbekistan managed to export a modest $42.4 million worth of goods to the US, a small fraction considering its total foreign trade turnover, which reached an impressive $66 billion for that year. This stark contrast highlights the limited engagement of Uzbekistan in the American market. With its total trade turnover of $16 billion in 2024, Kyrgyzstan similarly struggled with exports to the US, which amounted to merely $16.7 million. This reflects a broader trend where Central Asian economies exhibit low volume exports to the US, suggesting significant barriers or challenges in establishing a foothold in this lucrative market. Tajikistan's economic performance presented an even more sobering picture. Recording a total trade turnover of $8.9 billion, the country achieved only $4.6 million...