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Bruce Pannier

Bruce Pannier is a Central Asia Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, the advisory board at the Caspian Policy Center, and a longtime journalist and correspondent covering Central Asia. For a decade, he appeared regularly on the Majlis podcast for RFE/RL, and now broadcasts his Spotlight on Central Asia podcast in partnership with The Times of Central Asia.

Articles

Society

Central Asia’s Growing Domestic Drug Problem

It’s in the headlines every few days now in Central Asian countries. February 1 – Uzbekistan’s law enforcement agencies report raiding a laboratory producing synthetic drugs, and seizing narcotics worth more than $800,000. February 3 – Uzbek law enforcement announces that their latest counter-narcotics operation has resulted in the seizure of 111 kilograms of illegal drugs. February 10 – police in Kyrgyzstan’s northern Chuy region seize 1.5 kilograms of hashish and 1 kilogram of marijuana. February 11 – Kazakhstan’s Committee for National Security (KNB) announces it had uncovered a laboratory in Almaty region that was producing synthetic drugs. More than 15 kilograms of these synthetic drugs were seized and 200 liters of precursor materials. In the first decade after the five countries of Central Asia became independent in 1991, many of the reports from foreign media were about Central Asia being a major transit route for narcotics coming out of Afghanistan that were for buyers in Russia and Europe. Thirty years later, drugs are still coming into Central Asia from Afghanistan, but it is no longer just opium and heroin. And now it seems a good portion of these illicit narcotics are being consumed in Central Asia. Made in Central Asia Drug-producing laboratories are multiplying, and while there are no precise figures for the number of addicts, it is clear an increasing number of young people in Central Asia are using drugs. Ashita Mittal, the regional representative of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime in Central Asia, said in January 2025 that during the “last several years in just Kazakhstan, law enforcement agencies have uncovered and destroyed 87 laboratories producing synthetic drugs, and in Kyrgyzstan about 11-12.” Law enforcement agencies in Kazakhstan said earlier in January that they had destroyed 63 laboratories producing illegal narcotics just in 2024. Tajikistan’s Agency for Narcotics Control said at the end of its Kuknor-2024 counter-narcotics campaign in December 2024 that it had confiscated more than 1 ton of synthetic drugs. The synthetic drugs most often mentioned in these seizures are mephedrone, a type of amphetamine and stimulant that causes euphoria, and a-PvP, another stimulant. However, there are many types of synthetic drugs now available in Central Asia. Batum Estebesova, director of Kyrgyzstan’s Sotsium drug rehabilitation center, said the variety of synthetic drugs is increasing quickly. “We can’t keep up with all the new drugs to add them to the list of prohibited substances,” Estebesova said. UN Office on Drugs and Crime representative Mittal said part of the problem comes from Afghanistan. Mittal noted in 2023, there was a 95 percent reduction in heroin production in Afghanistan, but at the same time there was an “exponential growth” in the production of methamphetamines crossing into the bordering Central Asian countries – Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. In May 2023, Uzbek border guards noticed some strange marking on several boxes of pomegranate juice coming from Afghanistan. Testing showed bottles of juice in those boxes contained methamphetamine. Apparently, the buyers intended to evaporate the liquid and then collect...

1 year ago

Natural gas

Turkmenistan to Start Natural Gas Shipments to Turkey

Long-discussed shipments of Turkmen natural gas to Turkey could be just weeks away. Several options have been discussed for bringing gas to Turkey, but news since February 10 indicates Turkmenistan and Turkey chose a swap agreement involving Iran. Turkmenistan’s state information agency TDH reported the head of the country’s Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council) Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian by phone. During that call, Berdimuhamedov “announced the agreement with (Turkey’s) BOTAS company on the transit of Turkmen natural gas through Iran to the Republic of Turkey..." Since there is no pipeline connecting Turkmenistan to Turkey, the agreement involves a swap deal whereby Turkmenistan ships its gas to Iran and Iran makes a like amount of its gas available to Turkey. However, on February 11, Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar posted on X (formerly Twitter) confirming an agreement between BOTAS and Turkmengaz. Bayraktar said “… gas flow is planned to start on March 1, 2025.” There were no details about the volume of gas to be delivered, but Turkish officials have previously been mentioning an initial volume of some 2 billion cubic meters (bcm). Turkish officials have been pushing for this deal for more than two years, with the ultimate aim of turning Turkey into a gas hub to shipments to Europe. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev traveled to Turkmenistan in December 2022 to meet with Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov (the son of Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov). Erdogan and Aliyev were hoping for an agreement on construction of a pipeline to carry Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan and from there to Turkey. Those talks were inconclusive, but did lead to a series of other meetings of officials of the three countries to discuss alternative means to ship Turkmen gas to Turkey. The swap arrangement involving Iran was one of the possibilities raised during these meetings. However, Turkey is still clinging to the plan for construction of a pipeline that would eventually boost Turkmen gas supplies to Turkey up to 15 bcm. Turkish Ambassador to Ashgabat Ahmet Demirok said in September 2024 that his country was looking to purchase 300 bcm of Turkmen gas over the next 20 years. The agreement is good news for Turkmenistan, but it also shows again how dependent Turkmenistan is becoming on Iran for gas exports. When Turkmenistan became independent in late 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the only gas pipelines in Turkmenistan led north to Russia. Turkmenistan was exporting gas to Russia for most of the years after independence, but in 2024 the latest agreement between the two countries expired and both countries indicated they would not renew Turkmen gas exports. The first post-Soviet pipeline built in Turkmenistan connected to Iran. That pipeline started operations at the end of 1997. Another pipeline from Turkmenistan to Iran was launched in 2010. The two pipelines have a combined capacity to carry some 20 bcm, but a pricing dispute between Turkmenistan and Iran in late 2016 led Turkmenistan to...

1 year ago

Starlink internet

The Twilight of Starlink in Kazakhstan?

For every country in the world, the appearance of the internet has presented vast possibilities but also formidable challenges. This was especially true in Central Asia where the governments are obsessed with controlling information that can be accessed by the public. Kazakhstan is unique among the Central Asian states in that the Kazakh government has expended significant energy and resources to make Kazakhstan a modern country with a tech savvy population. Control over the internet remains an issue and has sparked a debate in Kazakhstan about the use of foreign telecommunications satellites. Countrywide Connections In late 2024, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Digital Development stirred controversy by proposing new regulations on imports of telecommunications equipment. One proposal would ban the use of equipment from foreign companies that do not have control centers inside Kazakhstan. In December 2024, the Digital Development Ministry specifically named Inmarsat, Thuraya, Iridium, and Starlink as targets for a usage ban. Kazakhstan actually has a national security law that “prohibits the establishment and operation of communication networks within Kazakhstan if their control centers are based outside the country.” However, Kazakhstan is a large country with most of its population living in roughly the eastern third of its territory. Cities, towns, and villages scattered across the western two-thirds of Kazakhstan are poorly connected to the internet and Kazakh authorities started discussions with Musk’s SpaceX about use of Starlink, a subsidiary of SpaceX with a network of satellites. In October 2023, Kazakh authorities “introduced broadband internet in ten rural schools using Starlink technology in a test mode.” The pilot project envisioned sending Starlink terminals to 2,000 schools. By April 2024, the system was already connecting 447 rural schools to the internet, and by August the number had climbed to 1,731 schools. Kill Switch Required In November 2023, the director of the Ministry of Digital Development’s Telecommunications Committee, Dias Tolegenov, warned citizens that private use of Starliink terminals was illegal in Kazakhstan. The “current version” of Starlink “violates current (Kazakh) legislation, as it does not meet safety requirements,” Telugenov said. This ban is still In effect. In May 2024, the director of Kazakhstan’s Kokterek Space Communications Center, Roman Ermashov, reiterated that according to Kazakhstan’s laws, “projects using foreign satellite communication systems in non-geostationary satellite orbits,” such as Starlink, must have “a gateway (interface) station on the territory of Kazakhstan.” SpaceX refused to install the station in Kazakhstan. “This is about safety,” Ermashov said, “Because if any information security incident occurs, such as a data leak, everyone turns to the state.” This comment by Ermashov cuts to the heart of the matter. During the mass unrest in Kazakhstan in January 2022, authorities cut off the internet around the country to prevent protesters from coordinating their actions or releasing information about what was happening to the world outside Kazakhstan. Later that same year, Tajikistan ‘s government cut off the internet connection to the eastern Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast during unrest, and Uzbek authorities did the same to the western Karakalpakstan Republic when violence broke out...

1 year ago

Organized Crime

Did Kyrgyzstan’s Security Chief Order an Assassination?

The head of Kyrgyzstan’s State Committee for National Security (GKNB), Kamchybek Tashiyev, has been waging a campaign against organized criminal groups in his country for the last few years and it seems he believes in fighting fire with fire. Speaking to representatives of Kyrgyzstan’s education sector on January 16, Tashiyev referred to the fight against organized crime, specifically mentioning the slain reputed crime boss Kamchybek Kolbayev. “I had to take the decision to liquidate the thief in law,” Tashiyev said, “for the sake of the state. And I made this decision, and we eliminated him.” He quickly regretted such candor after his comments received wide coverage and has revised his version of events leading up to Kolbayev’s killing. The Gangster Kamchybek Kolbayev, aka Kolya Kyrgyz, was allegedly the kingpin of Kyrgyzstan’s criminal world. The term “thief in law” originated in Soviet prisons among inmates who were high-ranking figures in organized criminal groups. This tradition continued after the fall of the USSR and the “Brothers’ Circle” of top thieves in law connects criminal organizations in former Soviet republics. Kolbayev seemed indeed to be a thief in law and according to the U.S. State Department, he was part of the Brothers’ Circle, and back in 2007 it was said that Kolbayev was the “leader of the most influential criminal group” in Kyrgyzstan. Kolbayev had been imprisoned more than once, though his prison conditions were not harsh. While in prison in late 2020, a video was posted of Kolbayev and other prisoners enjoying a small feast and singing. He seemed untouchable. The Raid On October 4, 2023, the GKNB’s special Alfa unit raided the Blonder Pub in Bishkek, looking for Kolbayev. Reports from that day said the GKNB intended to detain Kolbayev as a suspect in murder of another criminal figure in July 2022. According to the GKNB, Kolbayev offered armed resistance and was shot dead when the GKNB commandos returned fire. Given the lenient treatment Kolbayev had so often received from Kyrgyz authorities, it seemed strange he chose to open fire on law enforcement officers rather than submit to being gently detained, as he had been before, and possibly incarcerated in luxury prison conditions. However, Kolbayev was an odious figure in Kyrgyzstan, greatly feared by many and the circumstances of his death did not seem to matter to most people, so long as he was gone. A ‘Hit’? On January 16, Tashiyev explained to deputy education and science ministers, university rectors, and other directors of institutions of higher learning that the organized crime structure in Kyrgyzstan had grown strong and had extended across the country. Tashiyev said the criminal network was preying upon businesses and individuals. “We were forced to take necessary measures,” Tashiyev declared, and then stated he had given the order for Kolbayev to be eliminated. He added that the GKNB’s campaign against organized crime was a success. Kyrgyzstan had become “the only country in Central Asia… and probably in the post-Soviet countries, that does not have organized crime.” It...

1 year ago

Oil and Gas

KazMunayGaz Looking to Buy Another European Oil Refinery

Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGaz (KMG) is seeking to acquire an oil refinery in Bulgaria from Russia’s LUKoil at a bargain price. The purchase of Lukoil Neftohim Burgas, the largest oil refinery in the Balkans, would, according to some media sources, more than double [KMG’s] European refining capacity.” KMG reported a bid of $1 billion for the refinery, which one outlet stated “seems small.” Pressured Out The Burgas refinery was built in the early 1960s and “joined the LUKoil Group” in 1999. The European Union decision to impose a ban on Russian oil imports after the Kremlin launched its full-scale war on Ukraine deprived Lukoil Nefthohim Burgas of its major source of crude oil. According to a Financial Times report from November 2024, the Bulgarian government pressured LUKoil to sell the refinery, hitting the Russian company “with a 60% tax on profits in an effort to force out its owners” and prohibiting the “export of Russian crude-based products from Lukoil Neftohim Burgas.” In turn, LUKoil complained about “discriminatory laws and other unfair, biased political decisions toward the refinery.” KMG reportedly lost interest in the refinery in late 2024, but BNN Bloomberg reported on January 7 that the Kazakh company was still among the bidders for the Bulgarian refinery. Advantage KMG When the EU banned Russian oil imports, Lukoil Nefthohim Burgas compensated by purchasing oil from Kazakhstan and the Middle East. If KMG buys the Bulgarian refinery, presumably most or all of the crude processed there will come from Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan exported some 70.5 million tons of oil in 2023, and expects figures will be slightly less in 2024, some 68.8 million tons, due to maintenance at the Tengiz and Kashagan fields. Some 80% of those oil exports are shipped from Kazakhstan through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline to Russia’s Black Sea port at Novorossiysk. Prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU purchased about 50% of the Kazakh oil shipped through the CPC pipeline, but that amount has risen to 80% since the ban on Russian oil imports was imposed. Kazakhstan is also increasing the amount of oil it exports through Azerbaijan to Georgia’s Black Sea port at Batumi, where KMG subsidiary KazTransOil owns the oil terminal. Kazakhstan has a deal to ship 1.5 million tons of oil annually through Azerbaijan, but Kazakh Energy Minister Abdusalam Satkaliyev said in November 2024 that his country was looking to boost that to 20 million tons. Kazakhstan currently has two Aframax-class oil tankers (deadweight 80,000 tons each) operating in the Black Sea, but plans to bring this number to 12 during the coming years. The Lukoil Nefthohim Burgas refinery has a capacity to process some seven tons of oil annually. KMG International already owns two oil refineries in Romania. The Petromidia refinery, with an annual capacity of some five million tons, is located 20 kilometers from the Black Sea port city of Constanta, and the much smaller and older Vega refinery, north of Bucharest, with an annual capacity of some 350,000 tons....

1 year ago